Author Topic: The stock picking is impossible thread  (Read 1294 times)

bwall

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The stock picking is impossible thread
« on: March 01, 2019, 05:25:43 AM »
For anyone out there who picked a stock and lost a fortune, be it large or small, this is your time to shine!

Tell us what stock you picked, how the trade/investment went wrong and why you'll never pick stocks again and only stick to indexing.


talltexan

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2019, 08:27:59 AM »
I'm going to add that part of the problem with stock picking is having to get the stock right (picking a good, undervalued company), as well as getting the timing right.

Buy-and-hold investing is nice because you only have to be right on one of those (selecting the right investment), with the long time frame basically washing out everything else.

FI-King_Awesome

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2019, 08:39:26 AM »
Bought Apple at 200+. Currently 25k in the hole.

Now thinking about whether to hold on to it, tax harvest later in the year, or sell and buy an large cap fund with Apple overlap.

I believe the stock will recover long term, and am in no need to rush a sale. There’s definitely an opportunity cost there, though.

UnleashHell

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2019, 11:28:34 AM »
Lehman Bros....


sigh

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2019, 12:28:41 PM »
Lost $600 on some micro-cap (DHT) way back in 2012. I had purchased some Staples stock earlier that year and made a pretty quick 50% return, got cocky and dropped $1000 on a stock I knew nothing about. When I lost all of the profit from Staples, I fortuitously checked out a book from Jack Bogle, light bulb went on, I switched to indexing and never looked back. I haven't owned an individual stock in 7 years.

Stimpy

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2019, 03:49:06 PM »
i'll give a couple....  No penny stocks though (I lost what to me was a fortune for that lesson, that is all I need to say about penny stocks)

GE.  Bought it in 2012, got out 2018.... I bought it in ignorance as a newbie investor and it truly was a stock "pick" in ever sense of the word.  Since the purchase my knowledge has grown a ton.  And if I'd have followed my rules(that I have made since the purchase), I'd have been up when I sold, but like a dummy I kept it.  - Lesson learned, stick to your rules!   Total loss wasn't terrible (for me) but it was enough to make me kick myself.

OMI Bought it in 2018, got out same year.  Fundamentals when I bought were good, but there were issues.  Obviously those issues got the best of me when they cut the dividend.  I followed my rules and SOLD!  Lost over 50% of my investment ($1000+).  Worst loss I've had and definitely made me blink. 
Only bright side was I made MUCH more from other investments then I lost so....  Gotta take your winners with your losers.

Truth be told in the last 6-7 years, that's really all the horror stories I have.  Made a profit on every other stock I've sold, which is a rare event.   Now, I started in the LONGEST bull market in our history so take my results with a grain of salt.   Come see me after the next 50% drop and we will see where I stand.   (My guess is firm, but talk is cheap!)

wild forest

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2019, 07:54:12 PM »
I'm a newb here. Just started playing with Robinhood and currently holding a couple of small cap BIO stocks. Waiting on FDA approval release for marketing.

Anyways, I've been watching NIO movement  over a week and took a chance today and pulled the trigger. Just a small position that cost 1k.  Plan on holding it through ER this coming Tuesday. Supposed to be the next Tesla in China. They're selling luxuries electric SUV that comparable to Tesla Model X with half the price . There was a segment about it on 60 minutes and made the stock ran wild.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/in-china-an-electric-car-lifestyle-60-minutes/

chasesfish

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2019, 06:29:07 AM »
Bought a bunch of Kraft Heinz call options right after the drop.

Then Warren came out and called the Kraft purchase a mistake.

Lost half overnight.

Fortunately they are long-dated options, so I have some time to pray and unwind this.

*Disclaimer, I'm FI and this is the play money fund

Blueberries

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2019, 10:03:03 AM »
I still hold my largest loss - 60%.  The dollar loss is a minuscule part of my account, though that wasn't always the case.  The purchase is almost two decades old.  I have had the opportunity to get out, but chose not to as it is a good reminder of what happens when you don't exercise discipline and follow a plan.  That lesson has since been learned and now, I think I keep it as a badge?  I don't know my motivation for holding it now, but it served me well, as I didn't make that mistake twice. 
« Last Edit: March 11, 2019, 01:15:53 PM by Blueberries »

kasperle

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2019, 11:32:35 AM »
A few years ago, I was strongly considering buying GTAT, a company that people were expecting to supply Apple with sapphire screens for an upcoming iPhone. I never did, but I talked about it so much that my girlfriend ended up buying $3k of their stock!

Spoiler alert: your iPhone still doesnít have a sapphire screen, and GTAT no longer exists.

At this point, I think we both feel that Iíve squared things up after that mishap, but neither of us have picked stocks since.

...although I will say, Iím strongly considering buying a small amount of Beyond Meat stock after their IPO, just because I think their products are great, and I think theyíll do well. Iím talking like...$500, just to see what happens (it wonít be a big deal if I lose it all). I wonít tell my girlfriend about this one, though 🙂

AZryan

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2019, 11:35:54 AM »
Only stocks I ever bought were two at the same time. One was a digital amp chip company, and one was a company supposedly making 3D holographic discs that would hold mountains of data. Split $10K 50/50 on 'em. The holo-disc company vanished and the digital amp company doubled. I got out breaking even and swore to never do that again. (the digital amp company fell hard after that, too).

Ironically, I did almost the same thing again without realizing it....

I bought PRLAX (TR Price's Latin Am. fund) when it was going up like crazy with the intent of it only being short term and getting out if I made ~40-60%.

It ended up hitting a peak where I was at my massive profit target and stayed basically flat there for like a year!

I could get out a BIG winner at any time. It was like market timing when you could pause the stopwatch!

But I was tricked by the (normally reasonable) idea that being a long-term investor is smarter, so I shouldn't sell. I ignored that I was in a super risky sector that I didn't trust and had clearly bubbled.

I eventually sold when it fell to the price I bought it -losing the HUGE gains I could've had and the added gains of all that being dumped into the Total US Market or Mid-Cap Index.

That Lat. Am. fund kept falling after I got out, and the whole thing's a huge mess now. None of the top stocks that were in it are there now.

The whole thing was super dumb. I would've been greatly ahead had I just put it in the Total Market in the first place and done nothing (just like I would've with the two stocks I picked).

*edited 'cuz I wrote PRLAX was Vang. instead of TR Price.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 08:30:37 AM by AZryan »

daverobev

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2019, 01:09:01 PM »
Oh, a few. But hindsight is 20/20, as they say.

Thankfully I appear to be at the "wow, I'm bored of even trying to work out what is a good buy, the excitement just isn't there". I have my biases, and I'm beginning to ignore them and 'do the right thing' - namely, buy VWRL.L (Vanguard's all world ETF, on the London Stock Exchange).

Some good'uns:

CJR.B.TO
MAXR.TO
LB

But, I've done ok with others.

I would be at least a little wealthier if I'd only ever bought an all world tracker, no doubt about it.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #12 on: March 12, 2019, 08:04:30 AM »
A very long time ago, I simply picked the top performing mutual fund with a performance of +80%/year for 3 years.  I'm sure many others did the same, swamping the fund with cash.  It promptly lost -20% and then did nothing else, so I later sold it.  Wasn't a big investment, but it was a valuable lesson.

More recently, last year I tried to start a second experiment with micro-cap stocks.  The volatility was beyond anything I've seen elsewhere, and I ended it after 2 months.  Overall that experiment lost -8% in 2 months, but the volatility was hard to explain - "gut wrenching to watch" is the closest I can get.

thesis

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2019, 08:41:23 AM »
Shortly after I started my current job, my company's stock lost some serious value. Less than a year later, I decided to play around with $200 and bought some of my company's stock, thinking that it was a good deal, that I "got a discount". Well, that was dumb, because the stock fell lower and lower and has had a very difficult time showing any sign of recovery, despite my company doing well financially. Last time I checked (several months ago), that $200 was now worth $80 or so.

Sorry to be vague, but just wanted to relay this story. I also get stock grants through my company, but it's denominated in stock quantity, not cost, so it's still free money but it's a pittance and I get the joy of including it on my schedule d and 8949 (first world problems...)(also, the setup is weird). I'd rather just get that in my paycheck so I could dump it in my Roth, but oh well. Lesson learned, fortunately over a relatively small amount. Could not care less about stock picking. If that "opportunity" didn't play out, I can't imagine any other "opportunity" playing the way I expect it to, either.

We're in a black-out window half the year, it seems, so I'm buy-and-hold out of laziness. Plus, I can't quite bring myself to sell at such a low value. Honestly, I wish I'd just suck it up and sell the next chance I get, put it in my Roth, and move on.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 08:49:08 AM by thesis »

chasesfish

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Re: The stock picking is impossible thread
« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2019, 03:14:52 PM »
Kraft options still in the hole.  Might be my biggest loss ever.

At least its in the regular brokerage account and a loss against my gains