Author Topic: The old excuses for down swings are a reality, yet we are at all time highs!  (Read 1692 times)

KateFIRE

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I remember 2 years ago when the stock market swung down the headline was “Fear of Brexit driving markets down”.... now Brexit is a reality and stocks are at all time highs.

Last year when the stock market went down the headline was “Unrest in Washington shakes the market”.... now the President is impeached, stocks are hitting records.

The US manufacturing sector is contracting. Some Chinese tariffs are in place and hurting business. Personal debt in the US is at record highs with student debt hitting records. Young people are delaying home ownership.

Why is the market so high?? I used to brush this off, but I’m really starting to hate this stock market rally even though I’m making money off of it. It just seems like a lie.

All the excuses for stock market losses are a reality, but now no one seems to care.

What are you seeing? I’m seeing the under 40 year olds strapped with record debt and convinced that this is normal. Parents paying the equivalent of college tuition out-of-pocket for daycare. Rich seniors who are being advertised to sell their homes and move into lavish 65+ apartments. I see wealth that will die with the baby boomers because government policies favor giving financial help to the old (Medicare and SS) and giving debt to young adults and families.

Sorry for the pessimistic view. I just am so disillusioned with this 250% stock market rise.

TheAnonOne

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I remember 2 years ago when the stock market swung down the headline was “Fear of Brexit driving markets down”.... now Brexit is a reality and stocks are at all time highs.

Last year when the stock market went down the headline was “Unrest in Washington shakes the market”.... now the President is impeached, stocks are hitting records.

The US manufacturing sector is contracting. Some Chinese tariffs are in place and hurting business. Personal debt in the US is at record highs with student debt hitting records. Young people are delaying home ownership.

Why is the market so high?? I used to brush this off, but I’m really starting to hate this stock market rally even though I’m making money off of it. It just seems like a lie.

All the excuses for stock market losses are a reality, but now no one seems to care.

What are you seeing? I’m seeing the under 40 year olds strapped with record debt and convinced that this is normal. Parents paying the equivalent of college tuition out-of-pocket for daycare. Rich seniors who are being advertised to sell their homes and move into lavish 65+ apartments. I see wealth that will die with the baby boomers because government policies favor giving financial help to the old (Medicare and SS) and giving debt to young adults and families.

Sorry for the pessimistic view. I just am so disillusioned with this 250% stock market rise.

The stock market is mostly based on corporate earnings, or rather, the expectations of earnings in the future. Wealth, and who has it, really isn't important to stocks UNLESS it affects those earnings.

You are somewhat doing apples to oranges here. You COULD be right that, in the future, these issues will affect the market. Maybe it will crash it, but perhaps it will just take the form of slower growth over a generation. No one knows, and thus, it isn't worth worrying about from a market timing perspective.


SIDE NOTE: Wealth doesn't "die" with someone usually, that money goes somewhere, either through inheritance or some form of government confiscation.

utaca

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Parents paying the equivalent of college tuition out-of-pocket for daycare.

Ha, if only I could find a daycare that cost as little as my college tuition!

RWD

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The news is always spewing "<current event> caused <stock market change>!" but no one really can tell for sure if the events are related.

The stock market could start dropping tomorrow. But on the other hand, today might be the last time the stock market is this cheap. We really don't know for sure. Many people have claimed that the market has peaked over the last 6+ years. Eventually someone will be right but I wouldn't want to be the person that pulled my money out of the market in 2013.


1/2013  [SP500 = 1462]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-now-a-bad-time-to-invest-in-stock-index-funds/
5/2013  [1583]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/starting-today!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/$80k-sitting-in-cash-bc-scared-of-high-flying-stock-mkt-punch-me/
10/2013  [1695]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-expensive-now-alternatives/
5/2014  [1884]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-is-high-am-i-too-late/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-the-stock-market-too-expensive-to-get-back-in/
7/2014  [1973]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/current-market-has-me-scared-to-invest/
9/2014  [2002]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-it-a-good-time-to-invest-new-money/
10/2014  [1946]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/stock-market-would-you-buy-now-or-wait/
1/2015  [2058]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-should-i-be-concerned/
3/2015  [2117]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/talk-me-out-of-timing-the-australian-market/
12/2015  [2103]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/where-to-put-a-large-windfall-with-stock-market-near-all-time-highs/
1/2016  [2013]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/about-to-sell-everything-talk-me-off-the-ledge-(or-push-me-off)-please!/
4/2016 [2073]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/
2/2017  [2280]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/does-anyone-think-we-are-in-a-bubble/
4/2017  [2359]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/
6/2017  [2430]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/continue-the-blog-conversation/recession-coming/
8/2017  [2476]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/getting-scared-of-stock-market/
1/2018  [2696]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/nervous-about-the-market/
3/2018  [2678]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/when-would-you-get-back-in/
5/2018  [2655]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/investing-in-a-bull-market/
6/2018  [2735]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/moving-to-cash-market-timing-can%27t-believe-it/
10/2018  [2925]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/sell-index-funds-now-for-down-payment-during-recession/
2/2019  [2707]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/
4/2019  [2867]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/buy-vtsax-now-while-its-this-high-or-wait-till-a-drop/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-concerned-are-you-about-the-everything-bubble/
5/2019  [2924]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/scared-of-investing-in-the-stock-market-now/
6/2019  [2890]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/uk-tax-discussion/global-index-tracker-is-so-high!-do-i-just-keep-putting-my-money-into-it-anyway/
7/2019 [3026]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/would-you-106836/
8/2019 [2889]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/vtsax-and-a-looming-recession/
9/2019 [2978]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/recession-in-2-ish-years-scale-and-nature/
10/2019 [2986]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/advice-needed-108726/
11/2019 [3110]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/questions-from-37yr-old-that-very-recently-became-serious-about-fi/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/where-to-invest-my-cash-now/
12/2019 [3169]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/help!-i-dont-know-where-to-start/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-old-excuses-for-down-swings-and-a-reality-yet-we-are-at-all-time-highs!/

Miscellaneous
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/%27but-right-now-the-market-is-at-an-all-time-high-%27/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-great-market-crash-of-2016!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-to-deal-with-losing-$117k-in-stock-market/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/anyone-else-feeling-depressed-about-global-equities-10-year-outlook/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stocks-will-only-return-4-annually-for-next-decade-john-bogle/
« Last Edit: January 03, 2020, 08:51:40 AM by RWD »

moof

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I forget the exact quote, but something like "The stock market has predicted 27 of the last 11 recessions."

Stocks have a strong speculation aspect to them, or rather there are a lot of speculators and manipulators playing in stocks.  Often they will make a bet, then get on CNBC or wherever and ham things up to help their bet.  When other investors fail to see the expected doom or boom they stop reacting to fresh news on the subject.  Hence Brexit is now played out or already priced in.  Impeachment has little direct bearing on company share prices, but news from the trade war farce still can move markets.

Ignore the news and just stick with your investment strategy.

KateFIRE

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The news is always spewing "<current event> caused <stock market change>!" but no one really can tell for sure if the events are related.

The stock market could start dropping tomorrow. But on the other hand, today might be the last time the stock market is this cheap. We really don't know for sure. Many people have claimed that the market has peaked over the last 6+ years. Eventually someone will be right but I wouldn't want to be the person that pulled my money out of the market in 2013.


1/2013  [SP500 = 1462]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-now-a-bad-time-to-invest-in-stock-index-funds/
5/2013  [1583]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/starting-today!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/$80k-sitting-in-cash-bc-scared-of-high-flying-stock-mkt-punch-me/
10/2013  [1695]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-expensive-now-alternatives/
5/2014  [1884]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-is-high-am-i-too-late/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-the-stock-market-too-expensive-to-get-back-in/
7/2014  [1973]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/current-market-has-me-scared-to-invest/
9/2014  [2002]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-it-a-good-time-to-invest-new-money/
10/2014  [1946]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/stock-market-would-you-buy-now-or-wait/
1/2015  [2058]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-market-should-i-be-concerned/
3/2015  [2117]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/talk-me-out-of-timing-the-australian-market/
12/2015  [2103]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/where-to-put-a-large-windfall-with-stock-market-near-all-time-highs/
1/2016  [2013]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/about-to-sell-everything-talk-me-off-the-ledge-(or-push-me-off)-please!/
4/2016 [2073]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/
2/2017  [2280]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/does-anyone-think-we-are-in-a-bubble/
4/2017  [2359]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/
6/2017  [2430]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/continue-the-blog-conversation/recession-coming/
8/2017  [2476]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/getting-scared-of-stock-market/
1/2018  [2696]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/nervous-about-the-market/
3/2018  [2678]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/when-would-you-get-back-in/
5/2018  [2655]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/investing-in-a-bull-market/
6/2018  [2735]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/moving-to-cash-market-timing-can%27t-believe-it/
10/2018  [2925]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/sell-index-funds-now-for-down-payment-during-recession/
2/2019  [2707]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/
4/2019  [2867]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/buy-vtsax-now-while-its-this-high-or-wait-till-a-drop/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-concerned-are-you-about-the-everything-bubble/
5/2019  [2924]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/scared-of-investing-in-the-stock-market-now/
6/2019  [2890]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/uk-tax-discussion/global-index-tracker-is-so-high!-do-i-just-keep-putting-my-money-into-it-anyway/
7/2019 [3026]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/would-you-106836/
8/2019 [2889]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/vtsax-and-a-looming-recession/
9/2019 [2978]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/recession-in-2-ish-years-scale-and-nature/
10/2019 [2986]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/advice-needed-108726/
11/2019 [3110]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/questions-from-37yr-old-that-very-recently-became-serious-about-fi/
12/2019 [3169]
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/help!-i-dont-know-where-to-start/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-old-excuses-for-down-swings-and-a-reality-yet-we-are-at-all-time-highs!/

Miscellaneous
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/%27but-right-now-the-market-is-at-an-all-time-high-%27/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-great-market-crash-of-2016!/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/how-to-deal-with-losing-$117k-in-stock-market/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/anyone-else-feeling-depressed-about-global-equities-10-year-outlook/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stocks-will-only-return-4-annually-for-next-decade-john-bogle/

Thanks for this! It is reassuring to read the past! I know I have been worried about market downturns before, but now I’m not so much worried about a downturn as I am disgusted by the market. I remember watching documentaries about the reasons for the Great Recession. Now I think all those very obvious in hindsight reasons were totally made up, just like the blame for downturns in the past few years. The debt of Greece and Spain, brexit, housing crisis, US debt ceiling, Chinese tariffs.... My favorite are the headlines “US jobs report disappoints, stocks rise on likelihood of a rate cut”. What is going on? This stock market is definitely not a measure of the health of the economy or progress, but rather a measure of how much free money the fed has pumped out.

ChpBstrd

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I’ve also learned that many things which are bad for people and the country’s prosperity are positives as far as expected future corporate earnings are concerned.

Increasing deficits and national debt means taxes are lower than the benefits corporations get from government!
Increasing pollution is a sign of increasing economic activity!
If Brexit wipes out some British industries, that’s more market share for...
Hurricanes more likely? Buy home builders and Lowe’s stock!
More corruption in government means more favors received by companies!
Young people mired in debt? Sell them the payment plan!
If the dollar collapses, good for exporters!
If a war is started for political gain and 200k die, good for military suppliers!

In the long run, all these things reduce our potential but in the short run some of the losses are converted to corporate profits, similar to how someone might break out your car window to steal $1 in change from your console.

KateFIRE

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I’ve also learned that many things which are bad for people and the country’s prosperity are positives as far as expected future corporate earnings are concerned.

Interesting. I agree with you. Also very depressing! Some things actually lead to positive economy gains like inventions, but yes, I see how quick gains are tied to debt and getting people to spend from misfortune... our ballooning medical and insurance industries! How can I invest without supporting this? Real estate? I’m really disgusted by the stock market, but also don’t want to live in a hole and not invest.

harvestbook

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Are things really as bad as they ever were? The stock market spends a lot of time at all-time highs despite all the "bad stuff" that happens constantly.

Mr. Green

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The reality is the economy is strong and the market rally reflects that. Unemployment is super low, wages are increasing, homebuilding is on the rise, and people are spending. That drives profits and so the market is up. Those are the broad strokes. You can argue the details all you want but the bigger picture is what matters. People aren't buying houses? Maybe that's because they're spending tons of money on beer and eating out, to the point where there are tons of young people that can't cook and craft breweries are all over the place like Starbucks. People's priorities are changing, and you can't measure the success of a generation by the standards of the previous generation if they don't want the same things. College is not a requirement. There are huge shortages of skilled laborers. Maybe people just aren't making smart choices by taking on six figures of debt and not finding a job four years later when they could go to a trade school and pick up a skilled trade without debt. There are no sure fire answers to those detail type issues that people ask questions about but, overall, things are going well. They're going so well in fact that people will complain about the big debt they have while sipping their craft beer at the local brewery. So the market is up.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2019, 05:06:36 PM by Mr. Green »

ChpBstrd

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I’ve also learned that many things which are bad for people and the country’s prosperity are positives as far as expected future corporate earnings are concerned.

Interesting. I agree with you. Also very depressing! Some things actually lead to positive economy gains like inventions, but yes, I see how quick gains are tied to debt and getting people to spend from misfortune... our ballooning medical and insurance industries! How can I invest without supporting this? Real estate? I’m really disgusted by the stock market, but also don’t want to live in a hole and not invest.

Invest your money in index funds and your time in making a difference.

Bernard

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The stock market is tapping one new all-time high after the other. No problems coming from North Korea and Iran. Unemployment is so low that we're talking of negative unemployment. Lowest unemployment for minorities in history of this nation. Housing market has recovered and is also hitting new highs. Ford just reported today that they'll invest $1,45M and add 3,000 new jobs in Michigan:

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2019/12/17/ford-invests-adds-jobs-southeast-michigan-plants.html

That is in large part due to Trump's tariff game. Yes, playing this game interrupted and will continue to interrupt some of the US businesses' business, but in the end the "win" for the US is absolutely certain, because we import more crap from China than China imports quality products from the United States. We are in a stronger position. So without getting too political, life is good in the US, and the economy will thrive at least 'til November of 2020, unless something  horrible happens that we cannot foresee. What happens after the elections depends on the outcome of said elections.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Lago - Have you see the movie "The Big Short"?  If you do, you'll probably find it entertaining while you learn it's causes. You'll know more than the news people, who often mischaracterize it.  The movie follows a few groups who see the predict that a crisis is coming.

shinn497

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At this point. I don't  ask questions about why the market is up. I just accept that it is due to its inherent priced risk. I suggest ya'll do the same.

MaaS

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But, it's different this time.

thesis

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It's my understanding that big events like the Great Depression and Great Recession happen because humans are very good at being stupid, but lessons are often learned via policy and law. I'm no financial historian, but it's been my understanding that new laws have been put in place each time to prevent these things from happening again. Was the Great Recession as bad as the Great Depression? No. Hell, no. Many of the issues that caused the Great Depression were mitigated by new policies. Will the next recession be as bad as the Great Recession? Probably not, since other policies were enacted to curtail the dumb things that created it. Chances are that yes, humans will find some other loophole and think they're geniuses again and get burned, but even if humans have a short memory they often make up for this by enacting laws. I'm not a big-government guy, but I'm not convinced I'll see another Great Recession in my lifetime. Recessions? Yes. The Great Recession? No.

Sure, maybe things ARE a bit overvalued right now. These things get fixed during corrections, but money keeps flowing. If stocks are sometimes overvalued by people, then they are sometimes undervalued at as well, so even if the stock market loses something crazy like 50%, it will likely rise up soon after. What was the statistic, again? That the market had essentially recovered a year and a half after the Great Recession? The consequences lasted longer in the form of unemployment, but still. I don't fear corrections in the market: those should be expected, and they are accounted for in the 4% rule.

ChpBstrd

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It's my understanding that big events like the Great Depression and Great Recession happen because humans are very good at being stupid, but lessons are often learned via policy and law. I'm no financial historian, but it's been my understanding that new laws have been put in place each time to prevent these things from happening again. Was the Great Recession as bad as the Great Depression? No. Hell, no. Many of the issues that caused the Great Depression were mitigated by new policies. Will the next recession be as bad as the Great Recession? Probably not, since other policies were enacted to curtail the dumb things that created it. Chances are that yes, humans will find some other loophole and think they're geniuses again and get burned, but even if humans have a short memory they often make up for this by enacting laws. I'm not a big-government guy, but I'm not convinced I'll see another Great Recession in my lifetime. Recessions? Yes. The Great Recession? No.

Sure, maybe things ARE a bit overvalued right now. These things get fixed during corrections, but money keeps flowing. If stocks are sometimes overvalued by people, then they are sometimes undervalued at as well, so even if the stock market loses something crazy like 50%, it will likely rise up soon after. What was the statistic, again? That the market had essentially recovered a year and a half after the Great Recession? The consequences lasted longer in the form of unemployment, but still. I don't fear corrections in the market: those should be expected, and they are accounted for in the 4% rule.

I agree that rules and regulations tend to be put into place after financial crises, but they also tend to be rolled back during periods of complacency. The banking crisis of the Great Depression led to the Glass-Stegal Act which mandated a separation of investment banks and lending banks. Sixty years of banking stability followed. After a multi-million dollar lobbying campaign by companies like Citigroup and AIG, it was repealed in 1999. That set the stage for the boom-bust cycles of the past 20 years.

Similarly, restrictions enacted after the 2008 bust are steadily being undone today. The overall regulatory climate is similar to 2000 or 2006. Yet this stuff is so esoteric the average voter doesn’t care; they’re just buying the promise of “more jobs”.

Yes, I agree, humans are good at being stupid. Particularly if we define stupid as refusing to learn from the past.

shinn497

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If you read shiller's book, you will have learn that "History should be viewed from the context of all events happening without any prior notice.".

There will be some event in the future that will feel direly catastrophic. This will effect markets trmendously. Your portfolio may drop 30, 40, even 50%+ percent in one year. And yet despite this everything will be fine.

Accept this.

less4success

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Invest your money in index funds and your time in making a difference.

This is such a great quote.

Brother Esau

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The reality is the economy is strong and the market rally reflects that. Unemployment is super low, wages are increasing, homebuilding is on the rise, and people are spending. That drives profits and so the market is up. Those are the broad strokes. You can argue the details all you want but the bigger picture is what matters. People aren't buying houses? Maybe that's because they're spending tons of money on beer and eating out, to the point where there are tons of young people that can't cook and craft breweries are all over the place like Starbucks. People's priorities are changing, and you can't measure the success of a generation by the standards of the previous generation if they don't want the same things. College is not a requirement. There are huge shortages of skilled laborers. Maybe people just aren't making smart choices by taking on six figures of debt and not finding a job four years later when they could go to a trade school and pick up a skilled trade without debt. There are no sure fire answers to those detail type issues that people ask questions about but, overall, things are going well. They're going so well in fact that people will complain about the big debt they have while sipping their craft beer at the local brewery. So the market is up.

Top is In!

Blueberries

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I remember 2 years ago when the stock market swung down the headline was “Fear of Brexit driving markets down”.... now Brexit is a reality and stocks are at all time highs.

Last year when the stock market went down the headline was “Unrest in Washington shakes the market”.... now the President is impeached, stocks are hitting records.

The US manufacturing sector is contracting. Some Chinese tariffs are in place and hurting business. Personal debt in the US is at record highs with student debt hitting records. Young people are delaying home ownership.

Why is the market so high?? I used to brush this off, but I’m really starting to hate this stock market rally even though I’m making money off of it. It just seems like a lie.

All the excuses for stock market losses are a reality, but now no one seems to care.

What are you seeing? I’m seeing the under 40 year olds strapped with record debt and convinced that this is normal. Parents paying the equivalent of college tuition out-of-pocket for daycare. Rich seniors who are being advertised to sell their homes and move into lavish 65+ apartments. I see wealth that will die with the baby boomers because government policies favor giving financial help to the old (Medicare and SS) and giving debt to young adults and families.

Sorry for the pessimistic view. I just am so disillusioned with this 250% stock market rise.

There are any number of reasons the market might be high including euphoric buying, FOMO, foreseeing the economy picking up, etc.  The markets can remain irrational for a long period of time and yet, there is truth to the saying, "a bull market tends to climb a wall of worry".  One thing that you should understand is that the market does not like uncertainty.  If there is uncertainty, you will see the action we saw for a large part of this year.

I don't make market predictions.  No one knows what will happen next.  But, I have to ask, within what time frame are you referring to a 250% market rise?

The reality is the economy is strong and the market rally reflects that. Unemployment is super low, wages are increasing, homebuilding is on the rise, and people are spending. That drives profits and so the market is up. Those are the broad strokes. You can argue the details all you want but the bigger picture is what matters. People aren't buying houses? Maybe that's because they're spending tons of money on beer and eating out, to the point where there are tons of young people that can't cook and craft breweries are all over the place like Starbucks. People's priorities are changing, and you can't measure the success of a generation by the standards of the previous generation if they don't want the same things. College is not a requirement. There are huge shortages of skilled laborers. Maybe people just aren't making smart choices by taking on six figures of debt and not finding a job four years later when they could go to a trade school and pick up a skilled trade without debt. There are no sure fire answers to those detail type issues that people ask questions about but, overall, things are going well. They're going so well in fact that people will complain about the big debt they have while sipping their craft beer at the local brewery. So the market is up.

1.)  Not to be a downer, but very low unemployment isn't always a good thing. 
2.)  Wages are increasing - this is debatable, even among economists. 
3.)  I don't know the numbers of new homes, as I don't typically follow them, but I'll take your word for it. 
4.)  People are spending, but debt levels have surpassed 2008.

Personally I like that we have had historic buybacks due to the tax cuts and now the S&P is in an earnings recession.  But, yes, the market is up!  I'll take it.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2019, 07:25:22 PM by Blueberries »