Author Topic: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking  (Read 4432 times)

arebelspy

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Khan

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Re: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2014, 07:26:56 PM »
Hah, there was another rip off this on SeekingAlpha.

Did you know only 38000 people watch CNBC? Wow. Just... wow.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1928191-The-Rise-Of-Long-Term-Thinking

forward

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Re: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2014, 07:52:15 PM »

Good writing for sure!  I have wondered whether the huge computerized automatic trade platforms could eventually make it a challenge for the individual long term investor to consistently make progress.  Though the evidence doesn't support that concern. 

Being diversified in real estate or other things, such as you are arebelspy, may well be the best approach.

arebelspy

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Re: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2014, 08:25:10 PM »
Hah, there was another rip off this on SeekingAlpha.

Did you know only 38000 people watch CNBC? Wow. Just... wow.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1928191-The-Rise-Of-Long-Term-Thinking

That's a great counterpoint, thanks for sharing!

The stat that surprised me the most from the OP was: "Fifty years ago, the average stock was held for more than eight years, according to LPL Financial. By 2010, the average stock was owned for five days."

Even with high frequency trading lowering that average, only 5 days? Wow.
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amha

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Re: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2014, 07:22:44 AM »
Felix Salmon disagrees, and has a somewhat more optimistic take: http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2014/01/05/the-rise-of-long-term-thinking/

arebelspy

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Re: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2014, 07:33:00 AM »
Felix Salmon disagrees, and has a somewhat more optimistic take: http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2014/01/05/the-rise-of-long-term-thinking/

That's the same one linked in the second post, and quoted in the post right above yours.  ;)

As I said, a great counterpoint, but I'd still lean towards the death being more accurate.  Look at how many companies seem to make short term decisions for the next quarter's profits.

And what do you think me the average person does more: thinks more long term, or short term?
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matchewed

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Re: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2014, 07:49:17 AM »
Death I think is a bit hyperbolic (but then again the original piece is satirical), but there is a significant shift in our broader culture towards the immediate.

I have several friends who are as financially educated as myself who have made bad financial decisions like borrowing on their 401k to invest in individual stocks because "Look at how much I made in a few weeks!". Just anecdotal but I think it exemplifies the trend towards the immediate.

Funny but on a more philosophical bent I find it interesting that the trend towards the immediate seems to miss being in the now and being mindful. Why is it that people who do pause to contemplate the long game have a better (IMO) ability to be present and mindful? Probably more an Off Topic but subjects like this send me in that line of thinking.

arebelspy

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Re: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2014, 08:13:46 AM »
Funny but on a more philosophical bent I find it interesting that the trend towards the immediate seems to miss being in the now and being mindful. Why is it that people who do pause to contemplate the long game have a better (IMO) ability to be present and mindful? Probably more an Off Topic but subjects like this send me in that line of thinking.

That's an interesting observation.  Hmm.
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ShavinItForLater

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Re: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2014, 10:31:21 AM »
I see being present/mindful/"in the now" as being focused, and therefore not distracted.  Along with that, you are not affected by every input thrust into your path.  It may seem counterintuitive, but I think that lends itself very directly towards long term thinking.

Investing by I think most people's definition is focusing on a long term outcome (5 year minimum investing period is a common rule of thumb), and those same people would likely describe day trading and other short term investing more akin to gambling.  With that premise, making the best long term decisions would likely be helped by a mindful/present attitude.

That said, you could also argue that being present and mindful would help your day trading as well--but that makes the assumption that day trading "skill" (rather than luck) is a real thing.

oldtoyota

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Re: The Motley Fool: The Death of Long Term Thinking
« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2014, 02:44:22 PM »
Felix Salmon disagrees, and has a somewhat more optimistic take: http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2014/01/05/the-rise-of-long-term-thinking/

That's the same one linked in the second post, and quoted in the post right above yours.  ;)

As I said, a great counterpoint, but I'd still lean towards the death being more accurate.  Look at how many companies seem to make short term decisions for the next quarter's profits.

And what do you think me the average person does more: thinks more long term, or short term?

The part I put in bold is, sadly, very true.

The government does this too. Reading about how South Dakota provides a tax haven of sorts, I learned that the "death tax" that won't be paid to the US will not affect the economy for more than 50 years. They may have said 90 years, but I can't quite recall. It seems no politicians right now are going to fight this potential problem very hard, so it'll continue.