Author Topic: the Jobs report  (Read 2001 times)

mrpercentage

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the Jobs report
« on: August 05, 2016, 03:00:14 PM »
First,
Let me say that despite my bearish disposition I am excited that the U.S. employment is looking good and that stocks are on the rise.

However, I still have some concerns. First, how many of those jobs were just salaried employees going to hourly due to new regulations? Second, is that the reason the work week hours have risen? Third, does this mean interest rates increases are coming faster than expected? Fourth, we are still in an overheated market it just doesn't look so bad now.

And fifth, have you heard Bill Gross... Jebuss

Im still investing in my 401k but would not lumpsum invest in this climate.

Your thoughts?

Livewell

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Re: the Jobs report
« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2016, 06:02:46 PM »
Central banks - dovish
Earnings - improving
Employment and wages - improving but not overcooked (i.e. Janet doesn't need to take immediate action)
US stocks a world safe haven - yes
Lots of bears in the woods - contrarian bullish

I'd say stick with it for now.  I think it's going to be alright for a while, until it isn't.

Now on to more pressing questions, where did I put my beer? 
« Last Edit: August 05, 2016, 06:05:06 PM by Livewell »

mrpercentage

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Re: the Jobs report
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2016, 06:30:30 PM »
Yeah what was I thinking. I really shaved the mustache this month. I just ordered myself.. I mean I just preordered an Xbox One S Master Chief edition for my son. His birthday is next month. Totally over the top and impulsive but I do have the ca$h. Oh well, $379 less in stocks next month.

but check it https://youtu.be/rm60PyKdFUo

mathjak107

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Re: the Jobs report
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2016, 05:34:07 AM »
you can't tell a whole lot anymore from the unemployment numbers and job numbers  .

in our area  the company i worked for is one of  the area's largets employers . we have and had lots of jobs available on all levels from engineering to driver .

the problem is most of those unemployed or stuck in low paying jobs are just unemployable today .

they can't  pass a drug test , they can't pass a background check , their credit report stinks and has question marks about their ability to make good choices and decisions  . many speak english so poorly you can't let them interface  with customers . others come in looking like thugs .

we even had a bunch tell us they want 20 bucks an hour as a picker packer  since that is the equal to their unemployment insurance and working off the books at the deli .

the great recession gave employers the chance to clean house .

we found those unemployed in our industry were unemployed for reasons . no company lets it's best of breed go .

even if they are going out of business the best of breed employees are snatched up quickly by competitors . what you have left is folks looking for good jobs or jobs  that employers do not want .

so the numbers are skewed in both directions .  they may very well be skewed with folks who just are not employable or not employable by the better company's at higher pay so it looks like a job shortage but it really isn't .



« Last Edit: August 07, 2016, 05:38:26 AM by mathjak107 »

boarder42

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Re: the Jobs report
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2016, 06:09:39 AM »
Yeah love your posts glad I didn't listen to you in may. 

JR

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Re: the Jobs report
« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2016, 06:28:16 AM »
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

70,000 of the new net jobs were in "professional and business services". Overall wages grew almost 3% as well so if people did lose salaried jobs for hourly jobs then as a whole they are being paid more money.

It's okay to be skeptical but you should try to look at things more positively!

boarder42

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Re: the Jobs report
« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2016, 08:21:02 AM »
He's trying to find inverse value. That's my take anyways. Constantly looking for the crash to try to time it.

JUST INDEX AND FORGET ABOUT IT

mrpercentage

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Re: the Jobs report
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2016, 11:45:09 AM »
glad I didn't listen to you in may.

Not sure why anyone would listen to a random guy on the internet. Explore ideas okay. Take advice for the resource with one of the biggest impacts on your life?.... Umm.. no.

I wouldn't want to be responsible for your finances, and thankfully Im not--- that said, the summer isn't over buddy. Stay your course. Im staying mine which is a unique situation because I have a huge lump sum to deal with. I might just use some of it to pay off the $12,000 left on my car even though its at zero percent. I might pay off my wife's car too. That would eliminate all debt but the house, and the increased cash flow every month would most likely outpace any interest I would receive from stocks.

Thats where Im at right now but I am not you. Cheers