Author Topic: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...  (Read 2046 times)

Suelavie

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The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« on: February 29, 2020, 06:10:30 AM »
Yesterday, heard an interesting interview/analysis of the current financial crisis with the former Vice President of the New York Stock Exchange (George Ugeux).

At the end of the interview he said that himself was fully in cash since 2 years, so he lost nothing.  I found this was quite a strong  statement (disavowal toward the stock exchange) for someone who had this role at the NY Stock Exchange.


erutio

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #1 on: February 29, 2020, 07:33:05 AM »
There's a current financial crisis?

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #2 on: February 29, 2020, 08:19:20 AM »
We'll start hearing more and more of these folks who countered the trend and who will look brilliant in retrospect.  More than likely they were just lucky.   


ender

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2020, 08:21:20 AM »
We'll start hearing more and more of these folks who countered the trend and who will look brilliant in retrospect.  More than likely they were just lucky.

"I missed out on years worth of gains but since the market went down for 1 week to where it was barely 6 months ago, I'm a genius!

ixtap

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #4 on: February 29, 2020, 08:26:57 AM »
There was that peak in Jan 2018, maybe he got out then and just needs 1 more good down day.

Never mind any dividends or capital gains he missed out on in the mean time.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2020, 08:33:42 AM »
We'll start hearing more and more of these folks who countered the trend and who will look brilliant in retrospect.  More than likely they were just lucky.

"I missed out on years worth of gains but since the market went down for 1 week to where it was barely 6 months ago, I'm a genius!

Yup.  Don't look too closely. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #6 on: February 29, 2020, 10:05:23 AM »
"My investments never went down" is not an investment goal.  That all cash pundit is missing the point.

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) returned +30.8% in 2019, while cash earned somewhere near 2%.  So people who stayed invested moved much closer to their goal than someone who stayed in cash.

Mostachio

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #7 on: February 29, 2020, 10:45:25 AM »
With statements like that I sure am glad he's the former Vice President of the New York Stock Exchange.

TomTX

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2020, 02:37:30 PM »
Yesterday, heard an interesting interview/analysis of the current financial crisis with the former Vice President of the New York Stock Exchange (George Ugeux).

At the end of the interview he said that himself was fully in cash since 2 years, so he lost nothing.  I found this was quite a strong  statement (disavowal toward the stock exchange) for someone who had this role at the NY Stock Exchange.

By my reckoning as of Friday, he has lost ~9% compared to someone who stayed fully invested. He missed the runup - the market is about 9% higher than when he pulled out.

Suelavie

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #9 on: March 03, 2020, 01:53:22 PM »
This is nice! Thanks!

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: The guy was "full cash" since 2 years...
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2020, 08:45:45 PM »
Sometimes the last people you would expect to attempt to time the market, do just that. 80% of market timers fail over any reasonable time period.