Author Topic: The Great Market Crash of 2016!  (Read 7795 times)

Kaspian

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The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« on: December 06, 2016, 12:00:08 PM »
I know 2016 isn't quite over, but just want to LOLZ at these jerks:

RBS via CNN: "A 'cataclysmic year'...  Sell everything except high quality bonds."
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs/

Paul B. Farrell via MarketWatch: "No, this is not a prediction of a minor correction. Plan on a 50% crash."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25

Pento Portfolio Strategies via CNBC: "The S&P 500 falls more than 20 percent as it finally succumbs to the incipient global recession."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/the-market-will-drop-20-in-2016-pento-commentary.html

...And lots, lots more!

Schadenfreude?  Maybe.  But a good reminder you're better off eating the ass out of a dead skunk than listening to a so-called "expert" next month.

Retire-Canada

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2016, 12:41:47 PM »
We had our own MMM doomers with mattresses stuffed so full of cash they were about to explode waiting for "The Big One!" and sure it was about to happen because ________!
« Last Edit: December 06, 2016, 02:03:23 PM by Retire-Canada »

steveo

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2016, 01:43:45 PM »
Australian house prices are crazy. They've been crazy for 20+years. They keep going up. There is a guy at work who told me it was going to crash by the end of this year. Sure enough house prices just keep going up.

Predicting the future is basically impossible.

I expect in the future stocks will crash and they will go to the moon. I have no idea when each event will occur.


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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2016, 01:50:33 PM »
We had our own MMM doomers with mattresses stuff so full of cash they were about to explode waiting for "The Big One!" and sure it was about to happen because ________!

I miss Mr. P. 

"Here it Comes - Red Dow" was one of the best threads of 2016.

skeeder

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2016, 01:57:59 PM »
my 401k literally made up for the first half of the year in the last couple of months.

Seriously...don't listen to half these quacks.

Kaspian

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2016, 02:33:59 PM »
I miss Mr. P. 

"Here it Comes - Red Dow" was one of the best threads of 2016.

Oh, that one was classic!  Wasn't there a tantrum and march out the door around July when Red Dow was nowhere to be seen?  I'm imagining Linus still sitting in a garden waiting for the Great Pumpkin to show up. 

Travis

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2016, 02:46:51 PM »
I know 2016 isn't quite over, but just want to LOLZ at these jerks:

RBS via CNN: "A 'cataclysmic year'...  Sell everything except high quality bonds."
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs/

Paul B. Farrell via MarketWatch: "No, this is not a prediction of a minor correction. Plan on a 50% crash."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25

Pento Portfolio Strategies via CNBC: "The S&P 500 falls more than 20 percent as it finally succumbs to the incipient global recession."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/the-market-will-drop-20-in-2016-pento-commentary.html

...And lots, lots more!

Schadenfreude?  Maybe.  But a good reminder you're better off eating the ass out of a dead skunk than listening to a so-called "expert" next month.

The worst part is nobody will hold them accountable.  They'll continue to write their articles and give predictions on CNBC as if anything they said or wrote the previous day ever happened.

Retire-Canada

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2016, 03:16:12 PM »
The worst part is nobody will hold them accountable.  They'll continue to write their articles and give predictions on CNBC as if anything they said or wrote the previous day ever happened.

The Mo'-Worsterer part is that one day there will be a crash that lines up with one of their half-assed predictions and then they'll telling us "I told ya so!" for the rest of our lives. ;)

Interest Compound

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2016, 03:59:29 PM »
I know 2016 isn't quite over, but just want to LOLZ at these jerks:

RBS via CNN: "A 'cataclysmic year'...  Sell everything except high quality bonds."
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs/

Paul B. Farrell via MarketWatch: "No, this is not a prediction of a minor correction. Plan on a 50% crash."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25

Pento Portfolio Strategies via CNBC: "The S&P 500 falls more than 20 percent as it finally succumbs to the incipient global recession."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/the-market-will-drop-20-in-2016-pento-commentary.html

...And lots, lots more!

Schadenfreude?  Maybe.  But a good reminder you're better off eating the ass out of a dead skunk than listening to a so-called "expert" next month.

Don't you see? They won. They were paid to give their predictions, and they likely profited from the increased exposure by getting a lot of scared people to invest with them. And even through they were wrong, they'll just do it again next year and get paid again for being wrong.

They're laughing alright...all the way to the bank.

Indexer

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2016, 08:47:33 PM »
You know how these articles will sometimes refer to X person as the person who predicted '08. They make these predictions EVERY year. 80%+ of the time they are wrong, but no one keeps track. Then when the market does crash they claim to be the only people who saw it coming. Then they sell their market timing strategies to people.


It's not much different from the penny stock boiler room scumbags.
Call as many people as they can about 20 different penny stocks.
Of the 20, 10 will go down, 10 might go up, of those 10 maybe 1 went up a lot.
The stocks that went up, call the people they pitched those stocks to and now suggest a new stock out of 20.
Of those 20, 10 will go down, 10 might go up, of those 10 maybe 1 went up a lot.
Etc...
Eventually the scumbag seems smarter and smarter to the people they are still calling. They don't realize all the other times they were wrong.  Then there is the VERY small group who consistently get called about the penny stock that just goes gangbusters. To them the caller must be a genius. How couldn't they invest.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2016, 08:49:17 PM by Indexer »

Metric Mouse

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2016, 06:59:27 AM »
I particularly like CNN Money's "Fear and Greed" indicator, and how the writers use this arbitrary device they build based on what recently happened in the market to predict near-term futures. I smile when it bounces back and forth in the space of a week.

wienerdog

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2016, 07:07:30 AM »
I miss Mr. P. 

"Here it Comes - Red Dow" was one of the best threads of 2016.

Oh, that one was classic!  Wasn't there a tantrum and march out the door around July when Red Dow was nowhere to be seen?  I'm imagining Linus still sitting in a garden waiting for the Great Pumpkin to show up.

I 3rd that one as the best.  I still track his predictions from 2015.  I added in OHI sometime this year as he has posts saying it is going to be big and is ~18% of his portfolio. Of course looking at the performance I am sure he will say he dumped it long ago like his other predictions.  Funny how we always get the buys but not the sells.  I also track VTI since April 2015 so you can see what you would have got if you just bought a stupid index fund.

Maybe when he said Here it Comes he was talking about 2017?
 

Kaspian

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #12 on: December 07, 2016, 12:56:10 PM »
Good God!  Those red numbers actually make my stomach feel ill.  18% of a portfolio down 15%?  I know we can (eventually) hit a year where some of the indexes do that, but I can't imagine feeling so personally responsible for my own bad individual stock picking.  I mean, look at PAH!!  What the serious hell?  :(

steveo

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2016, 02:05:25 PM »
You know how these articles will sometimes refer to X person as the person who predicted '08. They make these predictions EVERY year. 80%+ of the time they are wrong, but no one keeps track. Then when the market does crash they claim to be the only people who saw it coming. Then they sell their market timing strategies to people.

It's actually a great way to make a living isn't it. You don't have to be right very often at all because you will be right once or twice and you just ride that rare occurrence.

Metric Mouse

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #14 on: December 08, 2016, 05:16:54 AM »
You know how these articles will sometimes refer to X person as the person who predicted '08. They make these predictions EVERY year. 80%+ of the time they are wrong, but no one keeps track. Then when the market does crash they claim to be the only people who saw it coming. Then they sell their market timing strategies to people.

It's actually a great way to make a living isn't it. You don't have to be right very often at all because you will be right once or twice and you just ride that rare occurrence.

Right? But isn't that like most of life - as long as things work out every once and awhile, people get along swimmingly.

davisgang90

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #15 on: December 08, 2016, 06:13:28 AM »
I'm selling everything and putting the money in Beanie Babies.  I feel they are ready for a BIG come back.

Travis

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #16 on: December 08, 2016, 01:32:43 PM »
The worst part is nobody will hold them accountable.  They'll continue to write their articles and give predictions on CNBC as if anything they said or wrote the previous day ever happened.

The Mo'-Worsterer part is that one day there will be a crash that lines up with one of their half-assed predictions and then they'll telling us "I told ya so!" for the rest of our lives. ;)

Is there a site out there that keeps track of financial pundits and their prediction/result track records? That would be a pretty shaming exercise for a lot of them.

steveo

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2016, 02:11:21 PM »
You know how these articles will sometimes refer to X person as the person who predicted '08. They make these predictions EVERY year. 80%+ of the time they are wrong, but no one keeps track. Then when the market does crash they claim to be the only people who saw it coming. Then they sell their market timing strategies to people.

It's actually a great way to make a living isn't it. You don't have to be right very often at all because you will be right once or twice and you just ride that rare occurrence.

Right? But isn't that like most of life - as long as things work out every once and awhile, people get along swimmingly.

I don't think so. I work as a project manager. If a project goes wrong your job is on the line. Sometimes that has nothing at all to with you doing your job. If I delivered a project 2 times out of 10 I'd be sacked for sure.

Kaspian

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2016, 02:50:05 PM »
I don't think so. I work as a project manager. If a project goes wrong your job is on the line. Sometimes that has nothing at all to with you doing your job. If I delivered a project 2 times out of 10 I'd be sacked for sure.

We have people where I work who somehow manage to always bail and get promoted up to elsewhere before a project crashes and burns like a Hindenburg.  If a project is going well, they either stick around for little awhile or try to get transferred to it for the end game.  :(  It's like a pinball game where they've mastered the flippers.  ....And usually those folks quickly become upper-management for having so many "successful" projects under their belt.

These guys who predicted 50% crashes for 2016?  Yeah, they abandoned that stream around July, pretended it never happened, and decided to give advice on a different topic for awhile. If that goes well, they'll stick to it.  Or move to a different train where they might win.  Never mind they're leaving devastation in their wake because some investors may have taken their stupid prediction as valuable.

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2017, 05:27:12 AM »
I miss Mr. P. 

"Here it Comes - Red Dow" was one of the best threads of 2016.

Oh, that one was classic!  Wasn't there a tantrum and march out the door around July when Red Dow was nowhere to be seen?  I'm imagining Linus still sitting in a garden waiting for the Great Pumpkin to show up.

I 3rd that one as the best.  I still track his predictions from 2015.  I added in OHI sometime this year as he has posts saying it is going to be big and is ~18% of his portfolio. Of course looking at the performance I am sure he will say he dumped it long ago like his other predictions.  Funny how we always get the buys but not the sells.  I also track VTI since April 2015 so you can see what you would have got if you just bought a stupid index fund.

Maybe when he said Here it Comes he was talking about 2017?
 

Interesting to hear that about Mr Percentage.

Thanks for sharing that!
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with two kids.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

theolympians

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2017, 07:21:22 PM »
I am amazed about news stories from "reputable" news source. It seems at least half are devoid of hard knowledge and are based on someone's opinion. Moreover, most of the stories have "may, could, possibly" in their title...WTF

itchyfeet

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2017, 08:45:37 PM »
Australian house prices are crazy. They've been crazy for 20+years. They keep going up. There is a guy at work who told me it was going to crash by the end of this year. Sure enough house prices just keep going up.

Predicting the future is basically impossible.

I expect in the future stocks will crash and they will go to the moon. I have no idea when each event will occur.

I totally agree that Australian house prices are crazy and could never have imagined Sydney prices climbing another 10% last year.

I have no idea what 2017 and 2018 will bring, but personally I will be seeking to reduce my leveraged position on australian property and certainly won't be exposing myself further in this market.

 I have benefited greatly from the booming prices in Sydney over the past 6 years as I probably took on too much debt in 2010, a roll of the dice that will pay handsomely if I sell up in this market. Currently it remains a paper gain.

I do feel that the growth to my net worth in the mid term will now have to come from other sectors outside Australian residential property. In 2016 I have been investing what I can in ASX200, emerging markets and All World index.

Like Australian property, I  am also a little concerned about US investments as the USD is very strong at the moment v the AUD and Euro, and US stocks have seemingly high valuations.

It's not the easiest time to be an investor.... or maybe it is.... we will only know 10 years from now I guess.

Metric Mouse

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2017, 09:12:51 PM »
I am amazed about news stories from "reputable" news source. It seems at least half are devoid of hard knowledge and are based on someone's opinion. Moreover, most of the stories have "may, could, possibly" in their title...WTF
Just shows how unpredictable the market is.

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2017, 07:30:49 AM »
Anyone remember Joe Granville?
1-23-12, 50% market crash prediction, I don't remember him ever being positive on the market.
http://www.businessinsider.com/notorious-market-timer-joe-granville-predicts-a-50-crash-2012-1

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #24 on: January 26, 2017, 10:40:27 AM »
Australian house prices are crazy. They've been crazy for 20+years. They keep going up. There is a guy at work who told me it was going to crash by the end of this year. Sure enough house prices just keep going up.

Predicting the future is basically impossible.

I expect in the future stocks will crash and they will go to the moon. I have no idea when each event will occur.

I totally agree that Australian house prices are crazy and could never have imagined Sydney prices climbing another 10% last year.

I have no idea what 2017 and 2018 will bring, but personally I will be seeking to reduce my leveraged position on australian property and certainly won't be exposing myself further in this market.

 I have benefited greatly from the booming prices in Sydney over the past 6 years as I probably took on too much debt in 2010, a roll of the dice that will pay handsomely if I sell up in this market. Currently it remains a paper gain.

I do feel that the growth to my net worth in the mid term will now have to come from other sectors outside Australian residential property. In 2016 I have been investing what I can in ASX200, emerging markets and All World index.

Like Australian property, I  am also a little concerned about US investments as the USD is very strong at the moment v the AUD and Euro, and US stocks have seemingly high valuations.

It's not the easiest time to be an investor.... or maybe it is.... we will only know 10 years from now I guess.

The median house price - median household earnings has been above global standards for what, 20 years now?

The thing that annoys me, is that Aussies are so addicted to property, that it will end up being politically expedient for the government to bail everyone out when the market does crash. Then the rest of us, who either could not afford property, or chose not to buy it, will end up paying for those bad decisions through our taxes.

Tyson

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #25 on: January 26, 2017, 10:52:13 AM »
Here it comes - RED DOW!!!!  In May!  Oops, I mean July!  Uhm, I mean before the end of the year!!!  Grumble grumble grumble.

Please, please please sticky this thread so we can reference it when those fools start piping up.

Kaspian

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #26 on: January 26, 2017, 11:50:05 AM »
January 20, 2017 - "CASHIN: The stock market may be about to enter 'weeks, or even months of struggling'"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cashin-stock-market-may-enter-153600391.html
...Thus, it appears to Cashin that the 20,000 level and further gains for the stock market may be out of reach in the near term.
"Historically, it was not a warning of calamity but more a harbinger of weeks, or even months of struggling," Cashin wrote.

- Art Cashin, "trading legend" , the director of floor operations at UBS

January 25, 2017 "Dow cracks 20,000 for the first time ever - MarketWatch"

You can't even get a 5-day prediction right?  You're fired, buddy!!
« Last Edit: January 26, 2017, 11:53:17 AM by Kaspian »

Gondolin

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #27 on: January 26, 2017, 12:06:46 PM »
Quote
"Here it Comes - Red Dow" was one of the best threads of 2016.

Here's one prediction absolutely guaranteed to come true!

"Here it Comes - Red Dow 2017 edition" will be one of the best threads of 2017!

Metric Mouse

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2017, 11:05:32 PM »
January 20, 2017 - "CASHIN: The stock market may be about to enter 'weeks, or even months of struggling'"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cashin-stock-market-may-enter-153600391.html
...Thus, it appears to Cashin that the 20,000 level and further gains for the stock market may be out of reach in the near term.
"Historically, it was not a warning of calamity but more a harbinger of weeks, or even months of struggling," Cashin wrote.

- Art Cashin, "trading legend" , the director of floor operations at UBS

January 25, 2017 "Dow cracks 20,000 for the first time ever - MarketWatch"

You can't even get a 5-day prediction right?  You're fired, buddy!!

I think if I was wrong so god damn always I would learn to put my money where my mouth is and try to keep it closed...

talltexan

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #29 on: February 01, 2017, 09:57:49 AM »
But it's back under 20000!

Resist, brothers! #never20000

Metric Mouse

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Re: The Great Market Crash of 2016!
« Reply #30 on: February 01, 2017, 10:03:44 AM »
But it's back under 20000!

Resist, brothers! #never20000
Damn. My retirement is ruined. I'll start kob hunting immediately.