Anyone predicting a COVID baby boom? And what stocks to buy?

[Morning Glory]

Husband and I had this conversation last night. We mostly just buy the index but we each have a small Robin Hood  account with individual stocks. I suggested to buy P&G or Kimberly Clark because people are buying lots of toilet paper right now. He says sales will be down next quarter so the stocks will likely drop.

I was remembering what my mom told me about the blackouts in New York in the late 70s and how bored people who stay home together tend to make babies, so I think companies that make diapers are a good bet right now. What other companies do you think would benefit from a baby boom?

[nereo]

The converse is that pregnancies historically go down during a recession, as people feel financially strapped and don't want the added uncertainty.  So maybe condom manufacturers?

In all seriousness, I hope you are thinking of this as "fun money" and not your core investment strategy.  Cause the effects of a broad-scale recession might swamp any 'bump' we get in any business from people self-quarantining.

[Morning Glory]

Of course it is fun money. I don't even add much to my account anymore, I just pick up a couple shares of something when I get enough dividends in there. Husband adds his Ibotta money to his account. Our IRAs get maxed every year 100% VTSAX. Right now it's a good buying opportunity for everything.

You are right about the birth rate decreasing in a recession, but this feels so different than 2008. China is back to work already. If we do a good job containing the virus here then things will be back to normal within a month.

[nereo]

re: toilet paper - people can only poop so much, and it seems like supply's got that amount figured out decades ago.  Once we've all hoarded enough there will be no reason to keep buying excessive amounts of TP.  I tend to think we'll hit that point over the next few weeks (if we haven't already).

I suspect streaming services will see big upticks, as will e-games. Of course that could also HURT subscription services like Netflix if people suddenly increase their downloads by a wide margin without increasing their plans.

[vand]

Supermarket stocks have held up pretty well in the panic, just as they did during the GFC.

Makes sense. It's a very defensive sector, and one that usually gets overlooked when markets get frothy with runaway growth stocks.

I do not predict anything approaching a mini baby boom. If anything I expect divorce rates to climb.

[effigy98]

Personally I'm predicting a jump in divorces when this is all said and done.

Interesting theory. I can see this happening with being stuck in the same house for so long together and major financial strains to cause a lot of fights.

[laserlady]

Sadly, I think coffin makers and funeral homes are about to get a large boost in their numbers.

[magnet18]

Sadly, I think coffin makers and funeral homes are about to get a large boost in their numbers.

3 million people died in the usa last year
Even pessimistic estimates a tiny fraction of that

This isn't the Spanish flu, it doesn't have a 30% fatality rate

[GuitarStv]

Sadly, I think coffin makers and funeral homes are about to get a large boost in their numbers.

3 million people died in the usa last year
Even pessimistic estimates a tiny fraction of that

This isn't the Spanish flu, it doesn't have a 30% fatality rate

CDC estimates for the US I've heard were from 200,000 to 1 700 000 dead.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

Pessimistic estimates are would therefore be more than a 50% increase.

[magnet18]

That's for "if absolutely nothing happens to prevent it" and a lot has happened since that was written

1.7m represents 100% of the population getting infected at the same time, and nobody getting medical care (from what I've read, 5% of cases are requiring ICU intervention, 1.7m is 5% of the usa population)

Given that since then, the US has taken huge steps towards total lockdown, statistically we've already shifted dramatically towards the lower end of the spectrum

An interesting video from a mathematician, which points out that small changes in behavior have significant changes in both how flat the curve is and also the total number of cases

https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg


However, you are correct, there *are* estimates that high.  If you want to invest in a funeral home mutual fund, don't let me stop you, though be sure to get out before the short term drop in demand, as it's just being pulled forward

[Paper Chaser]

I was remembering what my mom told me about the blackouts in New York in the late 70s and how bored people who stay home together tend to make babies...

They didn't have the internet in the 70s

[magnet18]

Back to the OP, perhaps go for companies benefiting from both short term medical supply demand, and long term baby supply demand.  Perhaps large medical conglomerates like JNJ.