Author Topic: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?  (Read 6467 times)

Cyaphas

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 495
  • Age: 36
  • Location: DFW, TX
The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« on: June 30, 2016, 02:24:37 PM »
I believe the EU is falling apart, mostly from a complete lack of democracy. I think the next bailout may spark enough motivation for another runner. I'm thinking it's going to be the French.

Thoughts on possible sparks to ignite it?

Thoughts on prime candidates to leave?

As a side note, I think that after the next country, a EURO currency based country (a much harder national choice than Britain had to make), leaves; Russia is going to make another Southern Ukraine style acquisition.

Tester

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 204
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2016, 03:06:09 PM »
I hope you are not right about the Russia acquisition, especially if you are referring to Moldova.
Mostly because my parents/friends/my house would end up at 30km from Russia in that case :).

EDIT:

I suspected some time ago things are not right...
http://www.flux24.ro/exclusiv-video-tren-cu-tancuri-americane-abrams-in-zona-vatra-dornei/
It is in Romanian, but it is about Abrams tanks being moved to the north of Romania near the Ukraine border...
« Last Edit: June 30, 2016, 03:59:00 PM by Tester »

rob in cal

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 306
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2016, 03:23:16 PM »
   It will be hard to get political elites in other countries to agree to a referendum like in Britain due to fear of their electorates also choosing to leave.  But in Austria, the Freedom Party, which has a good chance of being the biggest party in the next parliamentary elections in 2018, has just come out for an Austrex, but its premature to say how a referendum, if held, would go.

MoneyCat

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1754
  • Location: New Jersey
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2016, 07:15:50 PM »
Russia might not want to invade any other countries since the West basically crushed their entire economy the last time they did it. Russia is in a world of pain right now.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

theadvicist

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1447
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2016, 04:55:04 AM »
Russia might not want to invade any other countries since the West basically crushed their entire economy the last time they did it. Russia is in a world of pain right now.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I think it depends on their objectives. Am I right in thinking they still hold the territory? If so, and if that was Putin's objective, they still seem to be 'winning' in his eyes.

theadvicist

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1447
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2016, 04:55:47 AM »
And back to the original point, I think France will be next, precipitated by a general election.

davisgang90

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1255
  • Location: Roanoke, VA
    • Photography by Rich Davis
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2016, 05:38:29 AM »
Russia might not want to invade any other countries since the West basically crushed their entire economy the last time they did it. Russia is in a world of pain right now.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I think it depends on their objectives. Am I right in thinking they still hold the territory? If so, and if that was Putin's objective, they still seem to be 'winning' in his eyes.
I see Russia moving toward the Baltic states next.  I fear they could show up and claim NYC based on ethnic Russians being treated poorly and we would be slow to react.  Maybe we'll luck out and they will only annex Brighton Beach.

Scandium

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2198
  • Location: EastCoast
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2016, 06:47:20 AM »
I believe the EU is falling apart, mostly from a complete lack of democracy.

I've seen this parroted in other threads here. What exactly do you mean by this?

The 751 members of the EU parliament are all directly elected through free, open and democratic elections. And these members have control over the legislative work of the EU. How is this not democracy? Now, people might not like what the EU legislate, or do in general, but that's just what they voted for. It does not make it undemocratic. Otherwise that would just be code word for "doesn't do what I want it to do"

From how I read this it sounds pretty democratic to me:
Quote
shares equal legislative and budgetary powers with the Council (except in a few areas where the special legislative procedures apply). It likewise has equal control over the EU budget. Finally, the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, is accountable to Parliament. In particular, Parliament elects the President of the Commission, and approves (or rejects) the appointment of the Commission as a whole. It can subsequently force the Commission as a body to resign by adopting a motion of censure
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament

davisgang90

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1255
  • Location: Roanoke, VA
    • Photography by Rich Davis

Indexer

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1386
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2016, 06:56:34 PM »
EU bans claim that water can prevent dehydration

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8897662/EU-bans-claim-that-water-can-prevent-dehydration.html

I feel like I lost brain cells reading that. They spent all of that time and money trying to decide if water hydrates and then they concluded... nope, it doesn't. No wonder people don't believe in evolution or climate change. Who would believe anything a scientist tells you after they told you that water doesn't hydrate?!?!?

Yes, that is stupid. I hope when the UK decides which regulations to keep and throw away they toss that one out.

Curbside Prophet

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 182
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2016, 09:14:26 PM »
Netherlands have an overwhelming majority that wants a referendum.  Italy and France are also good bets as is Greece.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5299
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2016, 10:21:31 PM »
Russia might not want to invade any other countries since the West basically crushed their entire economy the last time they did it. Russia is in a world of pain right now.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I think it depends on their objectives. Am I right in thinking they still hold the territory? If so, and if that was Putin's objective, they still seem to be 'winning' in his eyes.

Their objectives are to secure a boarder that they can defend with a 40% + reduction in forces. Their demographics are scary - in a decade or so they won't have enough adult men to man their army to current levels, and thus won't be able to defend their massive boarders.  The U.S. military in the area has started practicing maneuvers they haven't performed for 30 years, preparing for Russian advances in the region.  http://q13fox.com/2016/06/23/u-s-fighter-jets-make-rare-highway-landing/

MoneyCat

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1754
  • Location: New Jersey
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2016, 11:03:21 PM »
Russia might not want to invade any other countries since the West basically crushed their entire economy the last time they did it. Russia is in a world of pain right now.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I think it depends on their objectives. Am I right in thinking they still hold the territory? If so, and if that was Putin's objective, they still seem to be 'winning' in his eyes.

Their objectives are to secure a boarder that they can defend with a 40% + reduction in forces. Their demographics are scary - in a decade or so they won't have enough adult men to man their army to current levels, and thus won't be able to defend their massive boarders.  The U.S. military in the area has started practicing maneuvers they haven't performed for 30 years, preparing for Russian advances in the region.  http://q13fox.com/2016/06/23/u-s-fighter-jets-make-rare-highway-landing/
I am not scared of Russia even in the slightest. They are so poor and so weak. Their only major export is oil and that's practically worthless now. Their inflation is out of control and their people can't afford to feed themselves. And their military is substandard. Turkey shot down a Russian fighter and dared Russia to do something about it which they didn't because NATO is their daddy. Russia is a pair of clown shoes.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk


Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5299
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2016, 12:24:48 AM »
Russia might not want to invade any other countries since the West basically crushed their entire economy the last time they did it. Russia is in a world of pain right now.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I think it depends on their objectives. Am I right in thinking they still hold the territory? If so, and if that was Putin's objective, they still seem to be 'winning' in his eyes.

Their objectives are to secure a boarder that they can defend with a 40% + reduction in forces. Their demographics are scary - in a decade or so they won't have enough adult men to man their army to current levels, and thus won't be able to defend their massive boarders.  The U.S. military in the area has started practicing maneuvers they haven't performed for 30 years, preparing for Russian advances in the region.  http://q13fox.com/2016/06/23/u-s-fighter-jets-make-rare-highway-landing/
I am not scared of Russia even in the slightest. They are so poor and so weak. Their only major export is oil and that's practically worthless now. Their inflation is out of control and their people can't afford to feed themselves. And their military is substandard. Turkey shot down a Russian fighter and dared Russia to do something about it which they didn't because NATO is their daddy. Russia is a pair of clown shoes.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

They're not a conventional threat to America, clearly. Just to their neighbors. And America is kinda moving in the direction of "why would we care?" Kinda like the whole Ukraine thing - they just need a little bit here and there, and no one will really care to stop them. Interesting times, for sure.

wienerdog

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 462
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2016, 05:04:01 AM »
Italy and France are also good bets as is Greece.

If I was a betting man I would be putting money on Italy also.  European commission dropping $165 billion to back the banks is a start.  Banks stock are down over 50% this year so a run on the banks could be close.

Polaria

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 219
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Brussels - Belgium
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2016, 10:47:06 AM »
First I'd just like to point out that the six countries that founded the European Union (under the name European Economic Community) in 1957 are
  • Belgium
  • France
  • (West) Germany
  • Italy
  • Luxembourg
  • the Netherlands

Note that Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands had already been in their own union, Benelux, since 1948.

I wouldn't put these countries as the "next to leave" because the "founder member" argument may be invoked.

This also explains why France, Germany and Italy are so close as seen in the post-Brexit referendum discussions, they've been trough it all together.


I'd say the next country to leave may be Sweden. Not a founding member, not a member of the Eurozone, net contributor.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2016, 11:04:55 AM by Polaria »

Paul der Krake

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4570
  • Age: 11
  • Location: USA
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2016, 11:15:29 AM »
Many do not remember this, but in 2005 France stunned the EU by not ratifying what was then the proposed European Constitution. The government learned their lesson about, and when the Lisbon treaty came around a couple years later, it was ratified by going through parliament. There was some bitching from the fringe Eurosceptics, but by and large nobody gave a toss.

Cameron vastly underestimated the protest vote. The advisers who gave the go-ahead dismissed the populist danger- after all the British are a much more cautious people than their rowdy neighbors. No way in hell, not in Britain, they said.

After Brexit, no sensible European government will allow something like this to be left to the population again unless the opposition has a pistol to their head.

Polaria

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 219
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Brussels - Belgium
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2016, 11:31:30 AM »
Cameron vastly underestimated the protest vote.

I totally agree with you. It was clear to me that the referendum would crystallise the resentment about austerity measures and immigration politics on top of the EU issues. Hell, I've only been in the country for four years and I predicted this result - close but with "Leave" ahead -  to my incredulous English colleagues.

I don't understand how it is possible that NOBODY in the entourage of Cameron (or even involved in UK politics) realised that "Leave" could well be the outcome.  This also explains why the plan in case of a victory of the "Leave" is non existent - it was considered as a black swan (even by the "Leave" political supporters)! As you said,  no way in hell, not in Britain...
« Last Edit: July 02, 2016, 11:38:56 AM by Polaria »

bobechs

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1068
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2016, 11:42:18 AM »
And I do not think it is a forgone conclusion that even Britain will necessarily leave the EU now. 

The vote itself does not make it happen, and work is being done to nullify exit, in effect if not name.

FIRE_Buckeye

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 102
  • Age: 30
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2016, 11:56:02 AM »
For all the remaining countries, the biggest obstacle is that none have their own independent currency like Britain does. All (or at least, all the major players) use and are shackled to the Euro. Breaking away from that would be a massive undertaking.

gaja

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1250
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2016, 01:01:10 PM »
For all the remaining countries, the biggest obstacle is that none have their own independent currency like Britain does. All (or at least, all the major players) use and are shackled to the Euro. Breaking away from that would be a massive undertaking.
Sweden and Denmark still use the Krone (DKK and SEK). Poland have kept the zloty. The Nordics move slowly, and they really don't want to listen to little brother Norway saying 'told you so' for the next 50 years. My money is on the central/eastern countries, if they are forced to accept refugees.

former player

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4426
  • Location: Avalon
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #21 on: July 02, 2016, 01:22:07 PM »
EU bans claim that water can prevent dehydration

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8897662/EU-bans-claim-that-water-can-prevent-dehydration.html

Oh please.  A single newspaper story from November 2011 that completely fails to give any identifying information about the law in question?  No title.  No date.  No reference which can be looked up?  It's a bullshit scare story unless checkable references are provided.

seattlecyclone

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4842
  • Age: 34
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2016, 04:35:02 PM »
I've seen this parroted in other threads here. What exactly do you mean by this?

The 751 members of the EU parliament are all directly elected through free, open and democratic elections. And these members have control over the legislative work of the EU. How is this not democracy? Now, people might not like what the EU legislate, or do in general, but that's just what they voted for. It does not make it undemocratic. Otherwise that would just be code word for "doesn't do what I want it to do"

Maybe they mean the Europe-wide government is "undemocratic" in the sense of "produces results contrary to what the local democracy would have chosen."

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6742
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #23 on: July 03, 2016, 10:15:02 AM »
My money is on the central/eastern countries, if they are forced to accept refugees.

The UK leavers have pretty much admitted that migrants are still going to come despite the Brexit vote and the EU has categorically stated that there is no access to their market without accepting the free movement of people.

If any country leaves the EU because they think that's going to solve the refugee problem they are not paying attention very well.

former player

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4426
  • Location: Avalon
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #24 on: July 03, 2016, 11:25:10 AM »
My money is on the central/eastern countries, if they are forced to accept refugees.

The UK leavers have pretty much admitted that migrants are still going to come despite the Brexit vote and the EU has categorically stated that there is no access to their market without accepting the free movement of people.

If any country leaves the EU because they think that's going to solve the refugee problem they are not paying attention very well.
Let's not confuse two separate issues.  EU free movement of people is a right for EU nationals only.  It has nothing to do with refugees from non-EU countries.  Thank you.

maizeman

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3575
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #25 on: July 07, 2016, 06:13:10 PM »
This was an interesting article that outlines a scenario were Italy might end up leaving the EU. It does require a whole sequence of events though.

1. Right now the party currently in power is pushing through a referendum to change the Italian constitution that looks like it is 50/50 to pass.
2. If it fails, the PM has said he would resign which would likely trigger new elections.
3. If there are new elections, the party that would probably gain the most is the "5 Stars Movement"
4. The leader of that party has said he will push for a referendum on EU membership if elected.
5. If there is an referendum it could go either way. (But since Italy uses the Euro, leaving would be an even bigger mess than the UK).

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/07/04/484187757/after-brexit-another-european-referendum-looms

daverobev

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3338
  • Location: UK
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #26 on: July 07, 2016, 07:37:49 PM »
My money is on the central/eastern countries, if they are forced to accept refugees.

The UK leavers have pretty much admitted that migrants are still going to come despite the Brexit vote and the EU has categorically stated that there is no access to their market without accepting the free movement of people.

If any country leaves the EU because they think that's going to solve the refugee problem they are not paying attention very well.

That doesn't make sense. Pulling out of the EU *means* leaving the Single Market. EU nationals will not have a right to live and work in the UK without some kind of visa or agreement in place; UK nationals will likewise not be able to live/work in EU member states. The UK will be able to turn away anyone at the border who does not have a right to enter.

The UK will have to make some kind of agreement with the EU for trade, or fall back on the WTO rules. So there will be *access* but it won't be tarriff free, automatic access.

Solving the refugee crisis requires something completely different; and that is making the originating countries somewhere that people want to stay. Unless you are going to accept each and every person from a country/region, taking in a few (as a percentage) just encourages more. It's ludicrous.

Of course, that's a completely different story (ie, who makes and sells all the weapons? Oh, the US, the UK, France, Germany, Russia...).

Timodeus

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 136
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #27 on: July 08, 2016, 07:03:13 AM »
Russia might not want to invade any other countries since the West basically crushed their entire economy the last time they did it. Russia is in a world of pain right now.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I think it depends on their objectives. Am I right in thinking they still hold the territory? If so, and if that was Putin's objective, they still seem to be 'winning' in his eyes.

Their objectives are to secure a boarder that they can defend with a 40% + reduction in forces. Their demographics are scary - in a decade or so they won't have enough adult men to man their army to current levels, and thus won't be able to defend their massive boarders.  The U.S. military in the area has started practicing maneuvers they haven't performed for 30 years, preparing for Russian advances in the region.  http://q13fox.com/2016/06/23/u-s-fighter-jets-make-rare-highway-landing/
I am not scared of Russia even in the slightest. They are so poor and so weak. Their only major export is oil and that's practically worthless now. Their inflation is out of control and their people can't afford to feed themselves. And their military is substandard. Turkey shot down a Russian fighter and dared Russia to do something about it which they didn't because NATO is their daddy. Russia is a pair of clown shoes.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

My wife's family lives in Russia and we visited last year. Roads and infrastructure were substandard and falling apart. General living conditions were poor outside of Moscow with the environment having severe degradation. I remember thinking the exact same thing as you when we were driving south to Volgograd, seeing all of these things, and saying to myself why would we fear this country? They can barely manage what they have and the recent foreign military displays are primarily for internal domestic consumption. Their TV news cracked me up, they would by the line quote New York Times articles about Russia, they're obsessed with us. Even though they hate us politically, they admire our standard of living and rule of law. In short they envy us...they just won't admit it. 

Now saying that, Putin is dangerous. The control he has of the Russian populace coupled with economic and ethnic insecurity along with the world's biggest (or second biggest, it keeps changing) stockpile of nuclear weapons, is cause for concern. We shouldn't make the mistake of overestimating our opponent like we did in the Cold War when we thought the Reds were everywhere, but we shouldn't completely disregard their ability to be a spoiler to our agenda in the world arena, especially in Europe and the EU. Russia has a lot of highly educated intelligent people, many of which are patriotic and serve their government with gusto, they have the ability to achieve things other countries with similar economies can't.

gaja

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1250
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #28 on: July 11, 2016, 04:28:41 PM »
My money is on the central/eastern countries, if they are forced to accept refugees.

The UK leavers have pretty much admitted that migrants are still going to come despite the Brexit vote and the EU has categorically stated that there is no access to their market without accepting the free movement of people.

If any country leaves the EU because they think that's going to solve the refugee problem they are not paying attention very well.

That doesn't make sense. Pulling out of the EU *means* leaving the Single Market. EU nationals will not have a right to live and work in the UK without some kind of visa or agreement in place; UK nationals will likewise not be able to live/work in EU member states. The UK will be able to turn away anyone at the border who does not have a right to enter.

The UK will have to make some kind of agreement with the EU for trade, or fall back on the WTO rules. So there will be *access* but it won't be tarriff free, automatic access.

Solving the refugee crisis requires something completely different; and that is making the originating countries somewhere that people want to stay. Unless you are going to accept each and every person from a country/region, taking in a few (as a percentage) just encourages more. It's ludicrous.

Of course, that's a completely different story (ie, who makes and sells all the weapons? Oh, the US, the UK, France, Germany, Russia...).

As Former Player says; work migrants (mainly EU citizens from eastern Europe) and refugees are two very different problems. It is unlikely that the UK will manage to get a deal where they keep access to the market, and UK citizens can keep travelling freely, but Polish workers will be turned away at the border. The excisting EEA and EFTA agreements have no such option. The refugee deals that are currently being negotiated is a different issue, and the Dublin agreement makes it easier for the countries in the outskirts to deny people at the border.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6742
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #29 on: July 11, 2016, 09:11:07 PM »

That doesn't make sense. Pulling out of the EU *means* leaving the Single Market.

No it does not. It just means negotiating a new agreement for access. The neither the UK nor the EU could afford to compromise trade. That's why the Brexit is such a stupid idea. The UK wants the same access it had before and the EU will be happy to give it to them as long as they agree to their terms. The terms will look a lot like being in the EU without any of the decision making powers the UK had before.

Leaving the EU only means leaving the current arrangement and forging a new one.

Quote
The relations between Switzerland and the European Union (EU) are framed by a series of bilateral treaties whereby the Swiss Confederation has adopted various provisions of European Union law in order to participate in the Union's single market.

Switzerland is not in the EU, but has access to the single market.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6742
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #30 on: July 11, 2016, 09:27:57 PM »
Let's not confuse two separate issues.  EU free movement of people is a right for EU nationals only.  It has nothing to do with refugees from non-EU countries.  Thank you.

They are two separate issues, but they'll both be part of the negotiations to retain access to the single market.

former player

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4426
  • Location: Avalon
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #31 on: July 12, 2016, 12:42:46 AM »
Let's not confuse two separate issues.  EU free movement of people is a right for EU nationals only.  It has nothing to do with refugees from non-EU countries.  Thank you.

They are two separate issues, but they'll both be part of the negotiations to retain access to the single market.
Highly unlikely.  EU national, yes.  But even under current arrangements the UK is outside the Schengen area and outside negotiations about where refugees go once they have reached the EU, and it is within the Dublin Agreement which says that EU refugees go to the first EU country they reach.  The idea of trying to negotiate additional rights for EU refugees to live in the UK after the Brexit vote is unrealistic and near the bottom of everyone's agenda.

mpcharles

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 38
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #32 on: July 12, 2016, 03:10:54 AM »
It's the migrant hordes multiplying like vermin that will cause the break up. Too many too quickly.

[MOD NOTE:  What the?  No.  No, we don't do that here.]


« Last Edit: July 12, 2016, 06:48:27 AM by FrugalToque »

daverobev

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3338
  • Location: UK
Re: The EU - Who, if anyone leaves next?
« Reply #33 on: July 12, 2016, 08:57:42 AM »

That doesn't make sense. Pulling out of the EU *means* leaving the Single Market.

No it does not. It just means negotiating a new agreement for access. The neither the UK nor the EU could afford to compromise trade. That's why the Brexit is such a stupid idea. The UK wants the same access it had before and the EU will be happy to give it to them as long as they agree to their terms. The terms will look a lot like being in the EU without any of the decision making powers the UK had before.

Leaving the EU only means leaving the current arrangement and forging a new one.

Um that's what I meant. The UK will no longer be an equal member of the single market, just like Canada isn't, just like the US isn't. It'll have a separate agreement. It won't be "in". It may well negotiate "access to". But that does not mean unlimited free migration etc. There may be tarriffs on certain goods/services.