Author Topic: the end is nigh!  (Read 18854 times)

sol

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the end is nigh!
« on: March 10, 2015, 12:26:41 PM »
Markets are broadly down 1.5% today, quick sell it all and buy gold.

Or throw a little extra at your favorite index funds a few days ahead of schedule, if you're into a slightly more subtle form of market timing.

thepokercab

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2015, 12:33:28 PM »
Damn- I just bought $700 of VTSAX this morning.  Wish I had read your warning sooner.  Can I still convert it into ammo? 

brooklynguy

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2015, 12:42:29 PM »
It's funny how just about none of us are immune to the temptation to react to these exceedingly short-term market movements.  The intra-day 1.5% drop is tugging at my index-investment-loving heartstrings and telling me to "buy more!", but if I can scrape together extra cash to throw into the market today then why couldn't I have done so less than a mere month ago when the market was even lower than it is right now?

tj

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2015, 01:02:24 PM »
It's funny how just about none of us are immune to the temptation to react to these exceedingly short-term market movements.  The intra-day 1.5% drop is tugging at my index-investment-loving heartstrings and telling me to "buy more!", but if I can scrape together extra cash to throw into the market today then why couldn't I have done so less than a mere month ago when the market was even lower than it is right now?

Didn't it just drop 1.5% a couple days ago? We're getting closer to a buying opportunity! ;-)

waltworks

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2015, 01:03:30 PM »
I know how it feels. I've been sitting on cash for several months (and will have to continue for at least 2 more) due to the possibility of a move to another state/buying a new house on short notice... so I keep rooting for the market to crash, crash, crash!

Of course, my existing holdings would get killed. But for some reason I like buying cheap better than owning expensive.

-W

tj

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2015, 01:10:24 PM »
Damn- I just bought $700 of VTSAX this morning.  Wish I had read your warning sooner.  Can I still convert it into ammo?

Actually, it's better for you that it dropped on the day of purchase. Your mutual fund shares get recorded at the end-of-day price.

thepokercab

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2015, 01:27:57 PM »
Damn- I just bought $700 of VTSAX this morning.  Wish I had read your warning sooner.  Can I still convert it into ammo?

Actually, it's better for you that it dropped on the day of purchase. Your mutual fund shares get recorded at the end-of-day price.

Sweet. 

Actually, the one downside to the dropping market is that its preventing me from hitting $100K in net worth.  I know its an arbitrary line that means nothing, but I've been wanting to see 100K in personal capital the last week or two and the market isn't cooperating.  Guess I'll need to save even more.   

PathtoFIRE

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2015, 01:48:51 PM »
I'm afraid I'm already one step ahead of you all. Sold all my Vanguard funds last night, and I have bought several Apple Watch Editions. I feel real momentum for a $17,000 watch, and I expect to be notifying you all of my FIRE within the next few months at the latest, stay tuned!

waltworks

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2015, 02:00:56 PM »
Pshaw. Bitcoin has nowhere to go but up. Ditch that speculative watch nonsense.

-W

I'm afraid I'm already one step ahead of you all. Sold all my Vanguard funds last night, and I have bought several Apple Watch Editions. I feel real momentum for a $17,000 watch, and I expect to be notifying you all of my FIRE within the next few months at the latest, stay tuned!

The Beacon

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2015, 02:07:03 PM »
I am cool with the volatility today.   Took a few tries but the last short nailed it. Rode it down until the close.  Not my best day since the first couple failed attempts ate into the profits.  But it is still better than nothing.
 
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 02:08:40 PM by Sharpy »

Emilyngh

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2015, 02:12:32 PM »
Pshaw. Bitcoin has nowhere to go but up. Ditch that speculative watch nonsense.

-W

I'm afraid I'm already one step ahead of you all. Sold all my Vanguard funds last night, and I have bought several Apple Watch Editions. I feel real momentum for a $17,000 watch, and I expect to be notifying you all of my FIRE within the next few months at the latest, stay tuned!

 

Anyone ever hear do this Polaroid company?  I've heard that you can use their devices to take pictures that then instantly spit out!   It's like a phone camera and printer in one that you can wear around your neck.   I'll probably just pull everything out of index funds and invest in them; sounds like a technology of the future.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 02:14:37 PM by Emilyngh »

The Beacon

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2015, 02:21:13 PM »
It's funny how just about none of us are immune to the temptation to react to these exceedingly short-term market movements.  The intra-day 1.5% drop is tugging at my index-investment-loving heartstrings and telling me to "buy more!", but if I can scrape together extra cash to throw into the market today then why couldn't I have done so less than a mere month ago when the market was even lower than it is right now?

Didn't it just drop 1.5% a couple days ago? We're getting closer to a buying opportunity! ;-)

While I am a very active futures trader,  I never time the markets in my 529, IRA accounts which are all set up with Vanguard Total Market Index fund on auto pilot.  Even in my active trading, I do not time the markets.   I never buy a security just because it is low or short it just because it is high.  One can go higher high and lower low.

Of course, your mileage might vary.

BTW I thought I was a speculator.  PathtoFIRE and waltworks definitely beat me,   Watch and Bit Coin... I would not dare to touch them with a 100 foot long pole..
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 02:31:05 PM by Sharpy »

MikeBear

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2015, 03:12:42 PM »
Pshaw. Bitcoin has nowhere to go but up. Ditch that speculative watch nonsense.

-W

I'm afraid I'm already one step ahead of you all. Sold all my Vanguard funds last night, and I have bought several Apple Watch Editions. I feel real momentum for a $17,000 watch, and I expect to be notifying you all of my FIRE within the next few months at the latest, stay tuned!

 

Anyone ever hear do this Polaroid company?  I've heard that you can use their devices to take pictures that then instantly spit out!   It's like a phone camera and printer in one that you can wear around your neck.   I'll probably just pull everything out of index funds and invest in them; sounds like a technology of the future.

I still had one of these Polaroids in my garage last year, where it had been sitting on a shelf for the last 13 years. Scratched up a bit, and well used. I sold it on Ebay for $30 plus shipping!

So, they still have value...

Doulos

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2015, 03:25:30 PM »
Start building that log cabin in the woods now!
Might I suggest investing in your very own Missile Silo?


RapmasterD

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2015, 05:48:52 PM »
Today's massive stock plunge is no laughing matter.

So just stop it!!

OK, that was long enough.

Actually, I just got in a fight with my dog because I finished her bowl of organic vittles when she was out in the back yard dropping a dukey.

Wolf359

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2015, 06:24:29 PM »
Markets are broadly down 1.5% today, quick sell it all and buy gold.

Or throw a little extra at your favorite index funds a few days ahead of schedule, if you're into a slightly more subtle form of market timing.
Sorry about that.  The market dropped because I investing a large amount of money last Thursday.

It's annoying to invest just before a decline. 

Just a heads up that I'm going to wash my car tomorrow, in case you want to avoid the rain.

Retire-Canada

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2015, 06:46:31 PM »
Cashed in my stocks and I'm sitting on enough gold to dip my car in!

Thanks for the tip guys!

-- Vik

Emilyngh

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2015, 07:48:12 PM »

I still had one of these Polaroids in my garage last year, where it had been sitting on a shelf for the last 13 years. Scratched up a bit, and well used. I sold it on Ebay for $30 plus shipping!

So, they still have value...

So you're saying I should use my cashed out index funds to buy as many as I can from ebay?   Got it.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 08:46:25 PM by Emilyngh »

MoneyCat

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2015, 07:58:59 PM »
I am still up for the year, so there's that at least.  I took today as an opportunity to get some more discounted index fund shares.

retireatbirth

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2015, 08:12:44 PM »
You guys are able to buy right away? It takes Fidelity a few days to transfer over money from my bank account.

sol

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #20 on: March 10, 2015, 08:33:36 PM »
You guys are able to buy right away? It takes Fidelity a few days to transfer over money from my bank account.

As long as my order goes in before 1pm Pacific time, my trades transact at the end of day price.

More commonly, I use step market drops as a sign that it's time to review my finances and see if I can't find a way to afford increasing my regular contributions.

retireatbirth

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #21 on: March 10, 2015, 08:37:55 PM »
You guys are able to buy right away? It takes Fidelity a few days to transfer over money from my bank account.

As long as my order goes in before 1pm Pacific time, my trades transact at the end of day price.

More commonly, I use step market drops as a sign that it's time to review my finances and see if I can't find a way to afford increasing my regular contributions.

You have cash already in the brokerage account though?

Chuck

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #22 on: March 10, 2015, 08:44:16 PM »
I'm glad we can all make fun of this here. Three years ago a day like this would have had me selling my individually picked stocks.

I'll echo the sentiment from upthread though: I am sooooo close to 100k in non-equity net worth. These drops are standing between me and purely emotional gratification. :<

anon-e-mouse

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #23 on: March 10, 2015, 11:50:29 PM »

powskier

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #24 on: March 11, 2015, 12:28:33 AM »
All my index funds are down a hair, but my 90% of my individual stocks are up again and overall portfolio is up more than 3% for the day.
I have all the ammo I need it's called a brain.

Wolf359

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #25 on: March 11, 2015, 09:45:56 AM »
I'm glad we can all make fun of this here. Three years ago a day like this would have had me selling my individually picked stocks.

I'll echo the sentiment from upthread though: I am sooooo close to 100k in non-equity net worth. These drops are standing between me and purely emotional gratification. :<
It wasn't a minor drop that did me in the last time I panicked.  It was a 90-95% decline in my individual stocks, with no prospects for them ever coming out of it (due to allegations of accounting fraud).  In retrospect, selling when I did made no difference -- those stocks never recovered.  Several went out of business.  One of the two I held onto, Cisco, took 15 years to recover.

There are two differences this time.  #1. I'm no longer speculating, but following a written, rational plan that was written when I was clear-headed.  #2. I'm 100% indexed.  That diversification makes a huge difference in my confidence.  While an individual company may screw up and go out of business, that's unlikely to happen to the Total Stock Market.

greenshade

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #26 on: March 11, 2015, 10:14:14 AM »
I opened a new IRA account for my husband on Monday, so I'm not surprised.  Reading here has given me the confidence not to obsessively check any of our retirement accounts, I am going to stick with automatically funding them and checking-in quarterly or so.

sol

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #27 on: March 11, 2015, 10:21:16 AM »
You have cash already in the brokerage account though?

I only need cash in the brokerage account to buy ETFs.  Regular fund purchases like vtsax can be done straight from my bank account.

Cathy

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #28 on: March 11, 2015, 12:16:14 PM »
I caved into market timing and contributed another $100 yesterday. Why so small? Because I don't intentionally keep money in cash. On Monday I had already contributed all of the money in my checking account to investments. Then I received a small extra bit of money from a transaction, and contributed that on Tuesday to time the market. ;-)

Kaspian

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #29 on: March 11, 2015, 01:33:41 PM »
To the $100K milestone guys--I had a similar feeling when things were stuttering around in November/December last year.  I had $193K.  Then, BLAM--like, overnight it said $209K.  You check your milestone and find out you've suddenly kicked it out of the ballpark.  (Then immediately after a momentary satisfaction the mind starts going, "Come on, $210K....  Come on 210!!")  :)

Heckler

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #30 on: March 11, 2015, 07:15:54 PM »
shit, I haven't done my daily check of the accounts...

down...  not much...

still + 8.84% from when I bought, mind you... Dammit, not the 200K of last week.  Oh well.  I'll gold plate my three cars.

MoneyCat

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #31 on: March 11, 2015, 07:59:36 PM »
I am down another 0.02% today.  When will the madness ever end?

stuckinmn

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #32 on: March 12, 2015, 08:55:58 AM »
I love market dips as it gives me a chance to get my market timing fix by trying to time some tax loss selling. 

I scan for specific lots that have a short term loss and no purchases in the last 30 days (wash sale stuff) and then try to time my transfer of that lot to another fund to maximize the loss.  If I think the market will go down tomorrow I'll wait to exchange that fund so I'll have more loss. 

I'm right an astounding 50% of the time, so doing pretty well, if I may say so myself. 

dividendman

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #33 on: March 12, 2015, 12:12:20 PM »
Looks like the end has come and gone... stocks are up 1% today - time to load up!!

sol

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #34 on: March 12, 2015, 12:21:39 PM »
VDE is still down about ten percent over the last month, if you're searching for bargains or signs of the coming apocalypse.

forummm

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #35 on: March 12, 2015, 01:26:26 PM »
Damn- I just bought $700 of VTSAX this morning.  Wish I had read your warning sooner.  Can I still convert it into ammo?

Perfect timing since fund purchases get the price at market close.

MoneyCat

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #36 on: March 12, 2015, 01:43:45 PM »
I bought just at the right time to ride the trend back up again.  Feel good, man.

sol

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #37 on: March 13, 2015, 10:42:00 AM »
I bought just at the right time to ride the trend back up again.  Feel good, man.

Apparently not, down another percent today. I'm buying this dip all the way down.  Best case scenario for me is a six month slide followed by two more years of depressed prices before we start back up again.  I would buy tickets for that ride every single week.

Is it wrong of me to be rooting for the next recession to happen sooner rather than later?

Cookie78

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #38 on: March 13, 2015, 10:46:09 AM »
Apparently not, down another percent today. I'm buying this dip all the way down.  Best case scenario for me is a six month slide followed by two more years of depressed prices before we start back up again.  I would buy tickets for that ride every single week.

Is it wrong of me to be rooting for the next recession to happen sooner rather than later?

I, too, have this dream.

I had to send money to buy back pension time this month instead of Index funds. Wishing I had that cash now instead! Oh well.

phillyvalue

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #39 on: March 13, 2015, 11:31:33 AM »
Not to kill the party, but it's worth noting that the S&P is down a whole 3.3% from its high two weeks ago. The idea that people are thinking a 3% fall constitutes a dip worth getting excited over is maybe a testament to how crazy the market has been over the past 3 years. Notably, the dip is minor relative to the effect that the swing in currencies is going to have on U.S. corporate profits.

sirdoug007

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #40 on: March 13, 2015, 11:32:50 AM »

ZiziPB

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #41 on: March 13, 2015, 11:43:36 AM »
I bought just at the right time to ride the trend back up again.  Feel good, man.

Apparently not, down another percent today. I'm buying this dip all the way down.  Best case scenario for me is a six month slide followed by two more years of depressed prices before we start back up again.  I would buy tickets for that ride every single week.

Is it wrong of me to be rooting for the next recession to happen sooner rather than later?
Sol, I am with you on that one.  Would love for this too happen and blow over before end of 2017 ;-)

phillyvalue

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #42 on: March 13, 2015, 12:25:43 PM »
I bought just at the right time to ride the trend back up again.  Feel good, man.

Apparently not, down another percent today. I'm buying this dip all the way down.  Best case scenario for me is a six month slide followed by two more years of depressed prices before we start back up again.  I would buy tickets for that ride every single week.

Is it wrong of me to be rooting for the next recession to happen sooner rather than later?
Sol, I am with you on that one.  Would love for this too happen and blow over before end of 2017 ;-)

The problem with all of this is that for most people, their income source is correlated with the strength of the economy; a recession that lowers stock prices won't benefit such people if their income is reduced or they lose their job, and thus don't have income to invest and may even need to pull money out of savings to cover expenses.

What we should really be hoping for is a sustained drop in equity valuations, which doesn't in and of itself require a weaker economy. If you think about in terms of price and earnings, we want a drop in the P/E ratio but not necessarily a drop in the denominator (as would happen in a recession). Basically, we should be hoping for sentiment towards investing in stocks to fade.

I'm not sure how likely sentiment is to change, given how easy it is for anyone to invest in the market via passive funds these days, how much information is out there, and how widespread the belief is that stocks will always do well over time. People in our generation have witnessed downturns, but every time there has been a dip the correct response has been to immediately buy the dip. Given the severity of the crisis, the recovery from the 2008-2009 recession happened incredibly quickly. My guess is, the only way that sentiment towards stocks can really change is a market crash that goes uncorrected for a long period of time; like we saw over the 1929-1950 period. Such a move would kill the optimism that many have towards stocks and as such result in higher expected returns for those who continue to invest.






forummm

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #43 on: March 13, 2015, 12:29:53 PM »
I bought just at the right time to ride the trend back up again.  Feel good, man.

Apparently not, down another percent today. I'm buying this dip all the way down.  Best case scenario for me is a six month slide followed by two more years of depressed prices before we start back up again.  I would buy tickets for that ride every single week.

Is it wrong of me to be rooting for the next recession to happen sooner rather than later?

I hear that. Or, how about if the market just drops 50% every other Friday? It can go right back up on Mondays.

I've had to adjust my target FIRE date based on how the market seems a bit overvalued.

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Franklin

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #45 on: March 13, 2015, 01:10:09 PM »
Here's a little trick I do to avoid market timing:

I get paid biweekly and I contribute to my 401k, IRA, HSA, 529, and brokerage account.  Each account buys the broad market twice per month.  So I mapped out their purchase dates and staggered the ones that I could so that I am automatically buying the market 10 out of the 20 trading days per month.

Every other day I'm going "Sweet!"

MoneyCat

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #46 on: March 13, 2015, 01:39:40 PM »
I bought just at the right time to ride the trend back up again.  Feel good, man.

Apparently not, down another percent today. I'm buying this dip all the way down.  Best case scenario for me is a six month slide followed by two more years of depressed prices before we start back up again.  I would buy tickets for that ride every single week.

Is it wrong of me to be rooting for the next recession to happen sooner rather than later?

Well. at this point, I bought low and gained 1.26% and then it dropped 1% today, so I'm still in the black on this purchase.  We'll see if it continues to drop or goes back up and...  oh, who gives a crap?  It's going to eventually go back up anyway.

dividendman

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #47 on: March 25, 2015, 03:28:40 PM »
Looks like the world is ending again - time to sell and get out! Dow down ~300 points!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #48 on: March 25, 2015, 03:30:49 PM »
It's very interesting to read message boards that have not existed prior to the last real market downturn. It's going to be interesting to see the change in sentiment here during the next bear market.

Eric

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Re: the end is nigh!
« Reply #49 on: March 25, 2015, 04:03:26 PM »
It's very interesting to read message boards that have not existed prior to the last real market downturn. It's going to be interesting to see the change in sentiment here during the next bear market.

Because there will be even more people calling for market timing strategies than there already are?