Author Topic: The Bottom Is Not In Yet  (Read 6419 times)

Stachless

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The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« on: April 24, 2018, 11:12:50 AM »
This thread aspires to be the Evil Twin of the very entertaining Top Is In thread as we approach the 3 month anniversary of the last top on 1/26/18.  Here we strive to call the bottom of the U.S. stock market; many pundits & perma bears are calling for a 30%+ drop in valuations.

My own prediction is that we will see a sub 20k DJIA this very summer....but I ask you, my fellow investors:

How low will it go?



P.S. When making predictions, please indicate the index and a time frame so we can track who was closest!

DS

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2018, 12:06:43 PM »
The bottom is not in, and never will be, because the top is in!

caffeine

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2018, 12:33:24 PM »
I'll play. Bottom S&P 500 in 6 month range (May through October) will be 2450-2500.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2018, 02:53:45 PM »
My worst case scenario says the bottom is at zero (0). No lower!

sol

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2018, 03:00:29 PM »
DJIA is at 24,024 today.  I predict it never closes a financial quarter below 24k ever again.

Stachless

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2018, 10:02:28 AM »
DJIA is at 24,024 today.  I predict it never closes a financial quarter below 24k ever again.

A bold prediction indeed!  Are economic cycles no longer cyclical?  Was the last Bear Market the last Bear of all time?

Since the Great Depression, the average Bear Market has dropped the S&P500 by 41%.  Does this 9 year Fed-induced raging bull somehow escape without a hangover?  History would seem to say otherwise!

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d


thd7t

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2018, 10:30:27 AM »
DJIA is at 24,024 today.  I predict it never closes a financial quarter below 24k ever again.

A bold prediction indeed!  Are economic cycles no longer cyclical?  Was the last Bear Market the last Bear of all time?

Since the Great Depression, the average Bear Market has dropped the S&P500 by 41%.  Does this 9 year Fed-induced raging bull somehow escape without a hangover?  History would seem to say otherwise!

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d
Perhaps, but the median Bear market is closer to 30%.  That would still mean that we're away from a bear market based on Sol's prediction, but it also shows that the 41% drop isn't as likely as it initially appears.

Tonyahu

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2018, 11:11:02 AM »
I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]

thd7t

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2018, 11:12:24 AM »
I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]
What will you do if the market goes up 10% before that drop?  Time in the market is going to be a better bet.

Tonyahu

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2018, 11:15:09 AM »
I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]
What will you do if the market goes up 10% before that drop?  Time in the market is going to be a better bet.

I will wait. We are over-due for a bear cycle and as I said, the market still functions as it always has - with cycles. I buy when things are reasonably priced and/or cheap, this market is very expensive still.


thd7t

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #10 on: April 25, 2018, 11:53:11 AM »
I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]
What will you do if the market goes up 10% before that drop?  Time in the market is going to be a better bet.

I will wait. We are over-due for a bear cycle and as I said, the market still functions as it always has - with cycles. I buy when things are reasonably priced and/or cheap, this market is very expensive still.
I wish you luck with that, but do read back through old threads on this.  People have lost a ton of money waiting in the 4+ years that I've been on this forum.

DS

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2018, 12:36:28 PM »
I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]
What will you do if the market goes up 10% before that drop?  Time in the market is going to be a better bet.

I will wait. We are over-due for a bear cycle and as I said, the market still functions as it always has - with cycles. I buy when things are reasonably priced and/or cheap, this market is very expensive still.

At what point did the market become expensive? And why would young mean taking on less risk?

Did you put all of your money in when the market was 20% lower than it is now and was at this level of cheap you have chosen?

Stachless

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2018, 01:02:27 PM »
DJIA is at 24,024 today.  I predict it never closes a financial quarter below 24k ever again.

A bold prediction indeed!  Are economic cycles no longer cyclical?  Was the last Bear Market the last Bear of all time?

Since the Great Depression, the average Bear Market has dropped the S&P500 by 41%.  Does this 9 year Fed-induced raging bull somehow escape without a hangover?  History would seem to say otherwise!

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d
Perhaps, but the median Bear market is closer to 30%.  That would still mean that we're away from a bear market based on Sol's prediction, but it also shows that the 41% drop isn't as likely as it initially appears.

I see.

However, limiting the next Bear Market to a 30% drop without the DJIA going under 24k (with the caveat of being at a fiscal quarter end noted) would imply the DJIA going to 34,782 prior to the next Bear.  The DJIA would have to hit 40,000 to survive a 40% Bear market at 24k.   

Do either of these seem likely?  Of course we really don't know....but.....

Tonyahu

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2018, 01:05:55 PM »
I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]
What will you do if the market goes up 10% before that drop?  Time in the market is going to be a better bet.

I will wait. We are over-due for a bear cycle and as I said, the market still functions as it always has - with cycles. I buy when things are reasonably priced and/or cheap, this market is very expensive still.

At what point did the market become expensive? And why would young mean taking on less risk?

Did you put all of your money in when the market was 20% lower than it is now and was at this level of cheap you have chosen?

I just believe we are over-due for a correction and will stand by it, to each their own!

DS

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2018, 01:46:07 PM »
I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]
What will you do if the market goes up 10% before that drop?  Time in the market is going to be a better bet.

I will wait. We are over-due for a bear cycle and as I said, the market still functions as it always has - with cycles. I buy when things are reasonably priced and/or cheap, this market is very expensive still.

At what point did the market become expensive? And why would young mean taking on less risk?

Did you put all of your money in when the market was 20% lower than it is now and was at this level of cheap you have chosen?

I just believe we are over-due for a correction and will stand by it, to each their own!

Top is in!

Stachless

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #15 on: April 25, 2018, 02:30:44 PM »
Fun dialogue on this topic so far!

Legitimate non-rhetorical questions for the group:

Is market timing a zero-sum game?

If so...who is on the 'winning' side of all these 'losing' market timing attempts?

And why would it be so disproportionately harder to be on the 'winning' side of these trades than the 'losing' side?

Things that make ya go hmmmmmmmm!

frugledoc

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #16 on: April 25, 2018, 02:54:46 PM »
I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]
What will you do if the market goes up 10% before that drop?  Time in the market is going to be a better bet.

I will wait. We are over-due for a bear cycle and as I said, the market still functions as it always has - with cycles. I buy when things are reasonably priced and/or cheap, this market is very expensive still.

At what point did the market become expensive? And why would young mean taking on less risk?

Did you put all of your money in when the market was 20% lower than it is now and was at this level of cheap you have chosen?

I just believe we are over-due for a correction and will stand by it, to each their own!

You are not only young, but also naive and inexperienced.

Your belief has nothing to do with market movements.  It is no more actionable than believing in unicorns or god.

If you truly are obsessed with waiting for a correction, then at least drip feed in to your asset allocation.  As your risk tolerance is low (as shown by waiting for a correction), something like 60% equities : 40% bonds should suit you.

You should never be out of the market with money which is earmarked for long term investing.

There are people on these boards with 6 figures, 7 figures and more in the markets.  Usually the young have only small amounts to invest so a craoish will only be a small amount off your net worth. 

My advice, ignore the noise, don't try and time the market, chose your asset allocation (lower equities as you are risk averse) and buy, buy, buy.  Buy then the market is up, buy when it goes down, buy when it goes sideways.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 03:00:47 PM by frugledoc »

Tonyahu

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #17 on: April 25, 2018, 02:55:46 PM »
I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]
What will you do if the market goes up 10% before that drop?  Time in the market is going to be a better bet.

I will wait. We are over-due for a bear cycle and as I said, the market still functions as it always has - with cycles. I buy when things are reasonably priced and/or cheap, this market is very expensive still.

At what point did the market become expensive? And why would young mean taking on less risk?

Did you put all of your money in when the market was 20% lower than it is now and was at this level of cheap you have chosen?

I just believe we are over-due for a correction and will stand by it, to each their own!

Top is in!

I actually think we could see another rally but given current technical analysis, market sentiment, macro economic picture, political environment and the lack of a bear cycle in a while - I am placing my bet against the perma-bulls!

I personally am waiting to see another 10-20% deeper correction before buying in here. I am young and feel I can wait out a little bit longer if we go bull. Perma-bulls think market is no longer open to market cycles. I plan to buy the bear cycle and hold forever :]
What will you do if the market goes up 10% before that drop?  Time in the market is going to be a better bet.

I will wait. We are over-due for a bear cycle and as I said, the market still functions as it always has - with cycles. I buy when things are reasonably priced and/or cheap, this market is very expensive still.

At what point did the market become expensive? And why would young mean taking on less risk?

Did you put all of your money in when the market was 20% lower than it is now and was at this level of cheap you have chosen?

I just believe we are over-due for a correction and will stand by it, to each their own!

You are not only young, but also naive and inexperienced.

Your belief has nothing to do with market movements.  It is no more actionable than believing in unicorns or god.

If you truly are obsessed with waiting for a correction, then at least drip feed in to your asset allocation.  As your risk tolerance is low (as shown by waiting for a correction), something like 60% equities : 40% bonds should suit you.

You should never be out of the market with money which is earmarked for long term investing.

I plan to start moving into position once we are another 10-20% down, even though I believe this will go ~40%+
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 02:57:44 PM by Tonyahu »

frugledoc

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #18 on: April 25, 2018, 03:02:33 PM »
Fun dialogue on this topic so far!

Legitimate non-rhetorical questions for the group:

Is market timing a zero-sum game?

If so...who is on the 'winning' side of all these 'losing' market timing attempts?

And why would it be so disproportionately harder to be on the 'winning' side of these trades than the 'losing' side?

Things that make ya go hmmmmmmmm!

I think it is something to do with the likes of goldman sachs being able to move markets at their whim with massive investments and high frequency trading.  The retail investor is much more likely to be on the losing side of market timing, as most trades are from the big boys.

Radagast

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #19 on: April 25, 2018, 03:27:40 PM »
Fun dialogue on this topic so far!

Legitimate non-rhetorical questions for the group:

Is market timing a zero-sum game?

If so...who is on the 'winning' side of all these 'losing' market timing attempts?

And why would it be so disproportionately harder to be on the 'winning' side of these trades than the 'losing' side?

Things that make ya go hmmmmmmmm!
It is a negative sum game. The average market timer will always make less than the market. Commissions, taxes, and bid-ask spreads take their toll. That is why Vanguard mutual funds do not you allow to sell and quickly buy back in, it costs the other fund holders money.

In addition to costs, human emotions make it disproportionately harder to be on the winning side.

But, eventually every market timer will be right. They are just likely to end up with less money.

Stachless

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2018, 10:01:27 PM »
"But, eventually every market timer will be right. They are just likely to end up with less money."

Very well said!  And I do totally agree.  Unless, of course, the market-timer nails a big move pretty early in his/her market timing career.  Or if they really do just do it once and nail it.

Radagast

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2018, 10:15:01 PM »
Also I feel like I brought the thread down by not making a prediction. I predict the S&P500 low will be 1,552.87 in intraday trading on March 26, 2020.

(Which contradicts my prediction in The top is in thread.)

dragoncar

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #22 on: April 27, 2018, 06:46:45 AM »
I'm waiting for 2000 S&P500 before go all in

DS

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #23 on: April 27, 2018, 08:02:58 AM »
I predict the S&P 500 to go to 0 at some point in the undefined future.

thd7t

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #24 on: April 27, 2018, 08:28:26 AM »
I predict the S&P 500 to go to 0 at some point in the undefined future.
That's why I'm timing the market to pull out right before the fall of civilization.  Gotta keep some dry powder, amirite?

JAYSLOL

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #25 on: April 27, 2018, 09:31:01 AM »
"But, eventually every market timer will be right. They are just likely to end up with less money."

Very well said!  And I do totally agree.  Unless, of course, the market-timer nails a big move pretty early in his/her market timing career.  Or if they really do just do it once and nail it.

True, same as a gambler going to a casino for the first time, putting it all in on a big hand and beating  the house, then walking away.  It happens, it's just much more common for them to keep playing and lose it all back to the house over the rest of the night, or week or over several more trips to Vegas.  Over time, the house always wins.   

Stachless

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #26 on: June 25, 2018, 07:11:30 PM »
Still not the bottom!

JAYSLOL

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #27 on: June 25, 2018, 07:41:17 PM »
I'll also take a guess, bottom will be Nov 24 @ 28.8% decline from the Jan peak.  Now that I'm wrong about that I'll get back to buying stocks every week. 

pecunia

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #28 on: June 25, 2018, 07:47:30 PM »
Going down - 6/25/18

Dow Jones 24,252.80 −328.09 (1.33%) down
Russell 2000 1,657.51 −28.07 (1.67%) down
S&P 2,717.07 −37.81 (1.37%) down

Hold your breath.  Going down, down, down

Stachless

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #29 on: December 20, 2018, 01:07:09 PM »
Tis a new bottom for 2018 today....but I still say The Bottom Is Not In Yet!


dvdvrhs

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #30 on: December 20, 2018, 01:14:31 PM »
I'm waiting for 2000 S&P500 before go all in

Just as devil's advocate here, but wouldn't waiting for that be throwing away a lot of dividends. Dividends that will still pay out IF it hits 2k and then when reinvested let you take advantage of the sale you are waiting on?

harvestbook

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #31 on: December 20, 2018, 01:26:57 PM »
That's why I believe in buying "all the way down." Not only do you get the reinvested dividends and hoarding more total shares, your bounceback point is lower than if you simply stop doing anything and just wait for another new all-time high. That plus no one can guess the actual bottom. I can't control the markets but I can control a steady commitment to agnostic purchases.

Stachless

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #32 on: December 20, 2018, 01:31:26 PM »
Current SPY dividend yield is roughly 1.5%.  If you think the market is going to drop by more than that, it would make sense to forgo the dividend to preserve capital.  If you are solely an income investor, it would make sense to hold forever unless you think the dividends will be cut.

As a T shareholder, I can promise you it is never fun to see 2-3 quarters of dividends fly out the window in a single market session like today! (on the bright side, the dividend yield is over 7% for buyers at today's prices)


bacchi

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #33 on: December 20, 2018, 01:47:37 PM »
Tis a new bottom for 2018 today....but I still say The Bottom Is Not In Yet!

You guessed a "sub 20k DJIA this very summer," which didn't come to pass.

We probably won't see a sub 20k DJIA this year but you might get lucky next year.

Blueberries

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #34 on: December 20, 2018, 02:00:49 PM »



Fun dialogue on this topic so far!

Legitimate non-rhetorical questions for the group:

Is market timing a zero-sum game?

If so...who is on the 'winning' side of all these 'losing' market timing attempts?

And why would it be so disproportionately harder to be on the 'winning' side of these trades than the 'losing' side?

Things that make ya go hmmmmmmmm!

Emotion and lack of planning.  But, the emotions play into the lack of planning.

Stachless

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #35 on: December 20, 2018, 03:17:27 PM »
Tis a new bottom for 2018 today....but I still say The Bottom Is Not In Yet!

You guessed a "sub 20k DJIA this very summer," which didn't come to pass.

We probably won't see a sub 20k DJIA this year but you might get lucky next year.

You are 100% correct that I was 100% wrong.  Or was I just a few quarters early?  Time will tell!

sol

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #36 on: December 20, 2018, 03:38:34 PM »
You are 100% correct that I was 100% wrong.  Or was I just a few quarters early?  Time will tell!

In the case of market timing, early IS wrong.

Brother Esau

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #37 on: December 20, 2018, 04:29:33 PM »
This is all just noise. I'm waiting for thorstach to call the bottom.

Reading folks thoughts on timing this is entertaining. Better than netflix. Wait.....someone said that previously.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2018, 04:34:48 PM by Brother Esau »

tralfamadorian

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #38 on: December 20, 2018, 05:01:30 PM »
This is all just noise. I'm waiting for thorstach to call the bottom.

Crypto bottom is in as it shows strength and inverse correlation to tanking markets.


soccerluvof4

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #39 on: December 21, 2018, 01:11:51 PM »
Starting to do some DCA myself with some extra cash I had built up on the runup. Trend is down till its not . Do what helps you sleep at night.

Exflyboy

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #40 on: December 21, 2018, 02:16:01 PM »
Rebalanced more into stocks today.. Since I NEVER hit bottoms or tops my advice is... Don't do what I do.. Except I am never out of the market..:)

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #41 on: December 21, 2018, 02:31:28 PM »
At this point it's the novice investors who are selling low. They ALWAYS buy high and sell low. Anyone who is finally selling now is an idiot.

FIRE@50

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #42 on: December 21, 2018, 02:44:15 PM »
At this point it's the novice investors who are selling low. They ALWAYS buy high and sell low. Anyone who is finally selling now is an idiot.
I don't know. If you bought in 1980 and you are selling today, is that really an idiot move?

ILikeDividends

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Re: The Bottom Is Not In Yet
« Reply #43 on: December 21, 2018, 04:31:21 PM »
At this point it's the novice investors who are selling low. They ALWAYS buy high and sell low. Anyone who is finally selling now is an idiot.
I don't know. If you bought in 1980 and you are selling today, is that really an idiot move?
Hmmm.  I would argue that if you bought in 1980 and are selling today, then you don't quite qualify for the "novice investor" label.  Furthermore, unless you picked some real duds in 1980, it might likely be extremely difficult to sell lower than what you bought in for.  Heck, even GE would have been more than a ten-bagger, even at today's depressed price.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GE/general-electric/stock-price-history
« Last Edit: December 22, 2018, 07:58:27 PM by ILikeDividends »