Author Topic: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.  (Read 5773 times)

waltworks

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #50 on: April 30, 2020, 08:48:18 PM »
It's very difficult to control kids from beyond the grave. Forget trying to control grandkids.

Good luck though.

LOL. It's hard when you're NOT dead! No desire to "control" anyone from beyond the grave, thankfully.

But you can set up a trust to make sure they and their kids and onward are at least housed and fed and let 'em go have awesome lives as they see fit.

-W
« Last Edit: April 30, 2020, 08:55:46 PM by waltworks »

Taran Wanderer

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #51 on: April 30, 2020, 09:00:41 PM »
Iím curious, whatís your time horizon?  How far out is FIRE, or whatever goal youíre shooting for?

Time horizon is generational wealth, so essentially infinite.

You could have a long argument about whether I'm FIRE but I can work when I want and don't have to work so I'd argue I am. Our goal as a family is to help as many kids have an awesome life as possible via foster/adopt and volunteering/charity though, so more money is always useful for that. I like my work and have no plans to stop (~20 hours/week). So FI, but not RE by sit-on-the-beach standards. RE by my "do what I care most about/want to" standard.

It sounds like you are FI or close to it. I'd look hard at your AA and more importantly life goals before selling everything.

-W

Man, thatís cool. Congratulations.

Yes, we could do what youíre doing right now, maybe more fully RE if we cut back in a few areas. This lockdown and work from home has an element of FIRE-trial for me, and as we go through this, Iím thinking a lot about life goals and how to maximize happiness with wealth in support of that rather than the other way around.

Whether I keep working a lot, a little, or not much at all, we could have half a century of life ahead of us, equities will need to be a significant part of our portfolio for a long time. Cash alone wonít carry us that far. I have a plan for re-entry, but itís not written down yet, so itís not really a plan, is it?

waltworks

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #52 on: April 30, 2020, 09:03:01 PM »
Yeah, if you're going to market time, make a *specific* reentry plan before you pull the trigger. It's way too easy to wait and wait and miss years of gains.

Getting out at a relative high is easy.

Getting back in is insanely hard both technically and emotionally.

-W

Psychstache

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dresden

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #54 on: May 01, 2020, 04:20:50 PM »
Looks like y'all missed the boat. This market has already been timed. :)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-single-best-trade-of-all-time-netted-one-investor-a-26-billion-profit-2020-04-29

Shorting the market is not my cup of tea, but I got out on 4/29 and put my previous portfolio in yahoo finance.  By getting out on Wednesday I already avoided a loss greater than our full-year retirement draw.  That doesn't mean it's time to declare victory after only 2 days, but I am very comfortable in the timing and the decision esp after getting out after the largest month increase since the 80s at the same time economic data is tanking.

dresden

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #55 on: May 01, 2020, 04:38:36 PM »
EXACTLY! If you're gonna do it, freaking own it!

I mean, it takes guts to throw caution to the wind and do something that almost nobody ever pulls off except by accident. You should stick your chest out and say "I'm timing the goddamn market" and let the chips fall where they may. Lots of people here will mock you. F 'em!

Don't weasel out and say nonsensical stuff about how you aren't a market timer, but man values look high and I just heard some really bad news, so this one time I'm going to freak out and sell everything oh and also I don't actually know when/why I would buy back in.

-W

There is a difference between trying to time the market and value-based decision making but it's not worth the argument.  You made your point and I made my point - and I don't agree with what you said and I think you are misguided, but sincere.  Time will tell whether my decision is a good one and I am fine if it's not.  I am comfortable with the data-driven decision I made. 

I don't find your comments helpful and you have a very insulting tone with your posts so I'd like to kindly request that you stop it.

Thank you.

waltworks

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #56 on: May 01, 2020, 06:05:36 PM »
No problem, best of luck. I have refused to market time for 20 years, and I'm FI. Maybe I could have shaved a year or two off by getting super lucky... but the downside risk of being out of the market is just crazy.

-W

dougules

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #57 on: May 02, 2020, 07:40:29 AM »
There is a difference between trying to time the market and value-based decision making but it's not worth the argument.  You made your point and I made my point - and I don't agree with what you said and I think you are misguided, but sincere.  Time will tell whether my decision is a good one and I am fine if it's not.  I am comfortable with the data-driven decision I made. 

I don't find your comments helpful and you have a very insulting tone with your posts so I'd like to kindly request that you stop it.

Thank you.

The data-driven decision would be to realize that the chances are always for those that get into the market immediately and then stay in the market.  And just because you end up coming out ahead doesn't make you an expert at how the roulette wheel spins. 

Agreeing to disagree would be fine if you were keeping this to yourself, but you're coming here putting out ideas that could potentially hurt others. 

dresden

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #58 on: May 03, 2020, 12:59:21 AM »
There is a difference between trying to time the market and value-based decision making but it's not worth the argument.  You made your point and I made my point - and I don't agree with what you said and I think you are misguided, but sincere.  Time will tell whether my decision is a good one and I am fine if it's not.  I am comfortable with the data-driven decision I made. 

I don't find your comments helpful and you have a very insulting tone with your posts so I'd like to kindly request that you stop it.

Thank you.

The data-driven decision would be to realize that the chances are always for those that get into the market immediately and then stay in the market.  And just because you end up coming out ahead doesn't make you an expert at how the roulette wheel spins. 

Agreeing to disagree would be fine if you were keeping this to yourself, but you're coming here putting out ideas that could potentially hurt others.

Pfft.  The stock market is going up and down all the time because people are buying and selling literally every single day - that is how the stock market works.  Roulette is something based entirely by randomness.  Making a data-driven value decision has nothing to do with randomness except to the extent the data itself is out of my control - how I react to it is not.   As I said this was a personal choice based on data - first time in 30 years of investing I've made a decision like this.   I fully understand start market performance and valuation are not always aligned and I can't predict what the market itself does - it's not always rational.  I made a decision to get out of the market at a time when it's near record highs but all financial data is shattering record lows.  Get over it and move one.  You are simply parroting what was already said and I disagree.  The decision was already made - you can't change it now.  As I said I am fine if at the end of the day I missed a run-up in prices - I think that's an unlikely scenario based on the data but I certainly understand it's possible.  The market was highly over-valued in the late 90s and yet 1999 was one of the best years ever despite extremely high valuations.  I fully understand all this and made the decision with my eyes open.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #59 on: May 03, 2020, 11:18:20 AM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sum-fears-still-t-dispel-060000394.html

The possibility (or probability?) of inflation lurks in the background. Canít stay in cash too long...

waltworks

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #60 on: May 03, 2020, 01:52:35 PM »
Yeah, I'm far from an end-the-Fed gold-standard humbug type, but if I were trying to market time right now... oh man would I be nervous about being in cash. High to very high inflation seems like a real possibility at some point in the medium term (of course, I'd have said that a decade ago too).

-W

Telecaster

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #61 on: May 04, 2020, 03:50:55 PM »
At the risk of over simplifying, basic* Keyesian theory says you can't have high unemployment and high inflation at the same time.  Partially because wages and prices fall due to lack of demand. 



*there are some exceptions

talltexan

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #62 on: May 05, 2020, 06:45:05 AM »
Iím curious, whatís your time horizon?  How far out is FIRE, or whatever goal youíre shooting for?

Time horizon is generational wealth, so essentially infinite.

You could have a long argument about whether I'm FIRE but I can work when I want and don't have to work so I'd argue I am. Our goal as a family is to help as many kids have an awesome life as possible via foster/adopt and volunteering/charity though, so more money is always useful for that. I like my work and have no plans to stop (~20 hours/week). So FI, but not RE by sit-on-the-beach standards. RE by my "do what I care most about/want to" standard.

It sounds like you are FI or close to it. I'd look hard at your AA and more importantly life goals before selling everything.

-W

@waltworks , can you answer some questions about the generational wealth?

1. Do you earn an income of $500,000 or more?
2. Are you building some kind of business that could scale up rapidly?
3. Do you plan to sustain a mustachian (40%+) savings rate over the course of an entire career, rather than just 10-20 years?

I'm used to seeing the phrase "generational wealth" in articles about Bryce Harper signing a new baseball contract, not here.

waltworks

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #63 on: May 05, 2020, 07:17:10 AM »
@waltworks , can you answer some questions about the generational wealth?

1. Do you earn an income of $500,000 or more?
2. Are you building some kind of business that could scale up rapidly?
3. Do you plan to sustain a mustachian (40%+) savings rate over the course of an entire career, rather than just 10-20 years?

I'm used to seeing the phrase "generational wealth" in articles about Bryce Harper signing a new baseball contract, not here.

1. Ha! No.
2. Ha! No.
3. Yes.

Look, even if you only make, say, $100k a year (relatively normal white-collar professional salary), you can end up with a LOT of money when you die if the following conditions apply:
-You maintain a >50% savings rate (as we easily have/do/will) and are generally disinterested in material possessions.
-You don't quit earning income early (ie, work until normal retirement age or longer).
-You invest your savings.
-The stock market returns something approximating it's historical average (7% real) over your lifetime.
-You actually live to ~80 like an average healthy 'murican.

If you sit down and run those numbers for our family (we make less than that but not a ton less) you end up with something like $20,000,000 (real/inflation adjusted, not nominal) when you die, even if you fully retire/stop earning money at 65. And in our case neither adult made more than grad student stipend money (I lived like a king on that $18k a year!) until age 30 or so. You'd do much better if you got a decent job right out of college.

Many people will also inherit significant sums of money from parents/relatives but I'm not including any windfalls in that. I'm also leaving out social security. There are of course downside risks too (dying earlier, long term care costs, meteor strike, etc).

$20 million is enough to do some interesting stuff. At 4% rule withdrawal rate, it throws off $800k/year (though there would be some significant overhead costs to operate the trust.) That would pay for a lot of descendants educations, food/housing stipends so they can afford to try starting a business or have a kid, etc. Or it could fund someone to fly around in a jet and act rich, I guess, if that's your thing. But it's certainly enough to create significant effects on many generations if you want to.

-W
« Last Edit: May 05, 2020, 09:00:59 AM by waltworks »

dougules

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #64 on: May 06, 2020, 05:15:32 PM »
There is a difference between trying to time the market and value-based decision making but it's not worth the argument.  You made your point and I made my point - and I don't agree with what you said and I think you are misguided, but sincere.  Time will tell whether my decision is a good one and I am fine if it's not.  I am comfortable with the data-driven decision I made. 

I don't find your comments helpful and you have a very insulting tone with your posts so I'd like to kindly request that you stop it.

Thank you.

The data-driven decision would be to realize that the chances are always for those that get into the market immediately and then stay in the market.  And just because you end up coming out ahead doesn't make you an expert at how the roulette wheel spins. 

Agreeing to disagree would be fine if you were keeping this to yourself, but you're coming here putting out ideas that could potentially hurt others.

Pfft.  The stock market is going up and down all the time because people are buying and selling literally every single day - that is how the stock market works.  Roulette is something based entirely by randomness.  Making a data-driven value decision has nothing to do with randomness except to the extent the data itself is out of my control - how I react to it is not.   As I said this was a personal choice based on data - first time in 30 years of investing I've made a decision like this.   I fully understand start market performance and valuation are not always aligned and I can't predict what the market itself does - it's not always rational.  I made a decision to get out of the market at a time when it's near record highs but all financial data is shattering record lows.  Get over it and move one.  You are simply parroting what was already said and I disagree.  The decision was already made - you can't change it now.  As I said I am fine if at the end of the day I missed a run-up in prices - I think that's an unlikely scenario based on the data but I certainly understand it's possible.  The market was highly over-valued in the late 90s and yet 1999 was one of the best years ever despite extremely high valuations.  I fully understand all this and made the decision with my eyes open.

It is effectively random unless you can predict the short term behavior of millions of people who are also trying to outguess you.  Are you a highly compensated hedge fund manager, because there are plenty of (other) highly compensated hedge fund managers trying to outguess what you're going to do short term?  Plus, if you did have a winning strategy, you wouldn't want to share it with anybody.  Short term market moves are a sociological feedback loop, so any strategy to beat the market changes the market.  (Feel free to show me where I parroted this from.). 

You're going to do whatever with your own money.  That's not why I care.  I am concerned with people selling investment snake oil to others.  It's impressive how many experts the pandemic has minted.  If you have a great strategy, wouldn't you prefer to keep it to yourself?

Monkey Uncle

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #65 on: May 09, 2020, 08:53:43 AM »
At the risk of over simplifying, basic* Keyesian theory says you can't have high unemployment and high inflation at the same time.  Partially because wages and prices fall due to lack of demand. 



*there are some exceptions

The late 1970s were a very big exception.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/1970-stagflation.asp

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #66 on: May 11, 2020, 11:31:27 PM »
Iím curious, whatís your time horizon?  How far out is FIRE, or whatever goal youíre shooting for?
Time horizon is generational wealth, so essentially infinite.

You could have a long argument about whether I'm FIRE but I can work when I want and don't have to work so I'd argue I am. Our goal as a family is to help as many kids have an awesome life as possible via foster/adopt and volunteering/charity though, so more money is always useful for that. I like my work and have no plans to stop (~20 hours/week). So FI, but not RE by sit-on-the-beach standards. RE by my "do what I care most about/want to" standard.

It sounds like you are FI or close to it. I'd look hard at your AA and more importantly life goals before selling everything.

-W
Man, thatís cool. Congratulations.
Are you congratulating @waltworks on having generational wealth?


@dresden - I don't think you're using a commonly accepted definition for market timing.  If you sold 100% of equities based on a prediction, that matches the Wikipedia definition of market timing:
"Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing

dresden

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #67 on: May 12, 2020, 02:06:46 PM »
I am not trying to predict price movements which is dependent on many factors.   Risks and valuations both seem sky high to me.  I am fine if I miss a run-up to avoid the risks associated with all that is going on now.

One commonly accepted technical definition of a depression is -10% gdp - does anyone doubt it will happen this quarter?  It's certainly a depression for small retail businesses and the supporting supply chain,

I am not trying to convince anyone that my decision is right - just sharing what I did and why.  I saw this today which seems to align with my thinking, but they note they are bullish on stocks long-term:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/investing/stock-market-dow-coronavirus-goldman-sachs/index.html

waltworks

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #68 on: May 12, 2020, 02:52:53 PM »
Soooo... you're "predicting" prices will go down (you think values are too high), so you sold your stocks, so then...

Again, just own it. Trying to reword it isn't fooling anyone except (apparently) you.

-W

dresden

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #69 on: May 12, 2020, 10:04:53 PM »
Soooo... you're "predicting" prices will go down (you think values are too high), so you sold your stocks, so then...

Again, just own it. Trying to reword it isn't fooling anyone except (apparently) you.

-W

You said you were going to drop it but didn't.  You can't help yourself i guess.

I am very sorry you can't understand - I don't know which way the market will go as it's determined by factors I am not considering and can't control.  I am not going to lose sleep either way as I based my decision on other data/risks.

From a risk/reward standpoint valuations and risks are both sky high and out of my comfort level.   I am not comfortable with the risk relative to the reward level right now -it's as simple as that.  If prices go up and I miss the run-up I am fine with it.   I will get back in when I feel the significant equity risks and valuations are aligned - not because I am trying to guess whether prices will go up or down.   Any major purchase I make - I try to make sure the price makes sense and with houses especially I've always tried to be extremely picky and only purchase a house that would still be desirable during a housing slump with no knowledge of whether housing prices would go up or down.

Give it a rest sir- no amount of continued harassment you do will change things.  You don't need to keep reposting the same thing over and over to make your point - I get your point but I think it's wrong and misguided.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 10:11:52 PM by dresden »

Taran Wanderer

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #70 on: May 13, 2020, 12:44:40 AM »
Hey dresden, I happen to share your opinion of the market, current valuations, possibly missing a small upside, and probably taking advantage of some major downside.  Like you, I've put my money where my mouth is on this, so I'm with you.  I've taken a dollar cost averaging with a buy-and-hold approach for a very long time, but the fundamentals are so wrong right now that I can't stick with it.

According to Investopedia:
Quote
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy in which an investor divides up the total amount to be invested across periodic purchases of a target asset in an effort to reduce the impact of volatility on the overall purchase. The purchases occur regardless of the asset's price and at regular intervals; in effect, this strategy removes much of the detailed work of attempting to time the market in order to make purchases of equities at the best prices. Dollar-cost averaging is also known as the constant dollar plan.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

Also according to Investopedia:
Quote
Market timing is a type of investment or trading strategy. It is the act of moving in and out of a financial market or switching between asset classes based on predictive methods. These predictive tools include following technical indicators or economic data, to gauge how the market is going to move.

Many investors, academics, and financial professionals believe it is impossible to time the market. Other investors, notably active traders, believe strongly in it. Thus, whether market timing is possible is a matter of opinion. What can be said with certainty is it is very difficult to time the market consistently over the long run successfully.

Market timing is the opposite of a buy-and-hold investment strategy.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

Since I'm no longer dollar cost averaging with buy-and-hold, one could argue fairly that I'm market timing.  However, it's not based on technical indicators, and it's not rapidly switching in and out.  It's a deliberate, value-based approach.  Yes, it has risks, but I'm comfortable with those risks.

In the end, waltworks is right - we are market timing... with a value based approach (my add).  Time will tell whether this is the right approach, or if buy-and-hold would have worked better. 

LWYRUP

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #71 on: May 13, 2020, 06:14:50 AM »
Iím curious, whatís your time horizon?  How far out is FIRE, or whatever goal youíre shooting for?

Time horizon is generational wealth, so essentially infinite.

You could have a long argument about whether I'm FIRE but I can work when I want and don't have to work so I'd argue I am. Our goal as a family is to help as many kids have an awesome life as possible via foster/adopt and volunteering/charity though, so more money is always useful for that. I like my work and have no plans to stop (~20 hours/week). So FI, but not RE by sit-on-the-beach standards. RE by my "do what I care most about/want to" standard.

It sounds like you are FI or close to it. I'd look hard at your AA and more importantly life goals before selling everything.

-W

@waltworks , can you answer some questions about the generational wealth?

1. Do you earn an income of $500,000 or more?
2. Are you building some kind of business that could scale up rapidly?
3. Do you plan to sustain a mustachian (40%+) savings rate over the course of an entire career, rather than just 10-20 years?

I'm used to seeing the phrase "generational wealth" in articles about Bryce Harper signing a new baseball contract, not here.

I'm interested in generational wealth too.  But it doesn't have to be as extreme as you are proposing. 

You could do something as simple as... earn $3 million, live off $80k, let the rest compound.  Each child will probably end up with a couple million from that alone.  That's enough for them to be FIRE right there.  It doesn't need to be $20 million.  Plus, some people can blow $20 million while others can live off $1 million indefinitely.

I want my kids to have the ability to both (a) pursue things they feel passionate about and (b) feel that they can have kids themselves.  So often I see people feel forced to make the choice between one or the other.

I also want them to sacrifice and suffer a bit, so I'm not going to just hand them huge piles of money in their 20s (I probably won't have enough by then anyways).  But I would have no problem telling them "if you have kids I'll fund the 529s so don't worry about that" or something like that.  I'm not going to just cut them checks so they can buy BMWs in their 20s when I rode the bus.  They can ride the bus too. 

waltworks

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #72 on: May 13, 2020, 07:49:47 AM »
Exactly. You can provide the private equivalent of UBI to your kids and grandkids, you can fund education, etc.

People tend to think of what rich and famous people live like and assume that's what generational wealth means. Like many things, it can mean different things to different people. I'm not interested in providing enough money for fancy possessions or a life of total leisure. But I am interested in providing a base to build on.

-W

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #73 on: May 22, 2020, 05:17:45 PM »

I'm interested in generational wealth too.  But it doesn't have to be as extreme as you are proposing. 

You could do something as simple as... earn $3 million, live off $80k, let the rest compound.  Each child will probably end up with a couple million from that alone.  That's enough for them to be FIRE right there.  It doesn't need to be $20 million.  Plus, some people can blow $20 million while others can live off $1 million indefinitely.

I want my kids to have the ability to both (a) pursue things they feel passionate about and (b) feel that they can have kids themselves.  So often I see people feel forced to make the choice between one or the other.

I also want them to sacrifice and suffer a bit, so I'm not going to just hand them huge piles of money in their 20s (I probably won't have enough by then anyways).  But I would have no problem telling them "if you have kids I'll fund the 529s so don't worry about that" or something like that.  I'm not going to just cut them checks so they can buy BMWs in their 20s when I rode the bus.  They can ride the bus too.

The way I'm thinking about doing it is with milestones.  A generous down payment for a modest house as a wedding gift.  Then pay down a portion of the mortgage upon the birth of each grandchild. Or just hold the note and "forgive" it over time.  Not having a mortgage payment to make can allow you to do a whole lot that you wouldn't otherwise be able to do. 

Monkey Uncle

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #74 on: May 22, 2020, 06:33:56 PM »
I'm planning to blow it all before I die. ;)

hodedofome

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #75 on: May 22, 2020, 09:52:31 PM »
The bear market is over and there are plenty of bulls left. Time to end this thread.

GreenEggs

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #76 on: May 23, 2020, 11:21:39 AM »
The bear market is over and there are plenty of bulls left. Time to end this thread.




Who thinks it's over, or was this only a temporary bounce & the worst is yet to come?




Buffaloski Boris

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #77 on: May 23, 2020, 11:28:05 AM »
The bear market is over and there are plenty of bulls left. Time to end this thread.

Famous Last Words.  We'll see. 

ChpBstrd

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #78 on: May 23, 2020, 07:57:53 PM »
The bear market is over and there are plenty of bulls left. Time to end this thread.




Who thinks it's over, or was this only a temporary bounce & the worst is yet to come?

Young investors... Never seen bull trap longer than a few week in all their lives.

hodedofome

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #79 on: May 24, 2020, 07:04:00 PM »
The bear market is over and there are plenty of bulls left. Time to end this thread.




Who thinks it's over, or was this only a temporary bounce & the worst is yet to come?

Young investors... Never seen bull trap longer than a few week in all their lives.

Iím one of the bulls and Iíve invested/traded through Ď08, Ď11, Ď15, Ď18. This isnít my first time. And this isnít a bull trap, itís a bear trap.

Book it. This temporary crash is over. My bullishness has my accounts at all time highs with no end in sight. And all the bears out there are fueling the fire for more upside.

DaKini

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #80 on: May 26, 2020, 02:00:57 AM »
Quote
And this isnít a bull trap, itís a bear trap.
It's a very alive dead cat... :D

dougules

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #81 on: May 27, 2020, 11:17:09 PM »
The bear market is over and there are plenty of bulls left. Time to end this thread.




Who thinks it's over, or was this only a temporary bounce & the worst is yet to come?

Young investors... Never seen bull trap longer than a few week in all their lives.

Young investors... Don't remember all the bear markets that eventually ended in long long bull runs.   If market trends over the course of less than a decade are of any concern to you, you should not be in equities at all. 

waltworks

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #82 on: May 27, 2020, 11:42:35 PM »
For some people, the whole history of the US stock market is one big bull trap.

-W

The_Big_H

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #83 on: May 28, 2020, 02:50:27 AM »
For some people, the whole history of the US stock market is one big bull trap.

-W

Is it really a trap if one invests regardless of if it goes up, stays the same, or crashes?

waltworks

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Re: The bear market can't end until there are no more bulls left.
« Reply #84 on: May 28, 2020, 10:04:20 AM »
For some people, the whole history of the US stock market is one big bull trap.

-W

Is it really a trap if one invests regardless of if it goes up, stays the same, or crashes?

I was making a joke about "investors" who are so risk averse they never invest.

-W