@waltworks, I'll own up to the market timing. I've been a buy-and-hold investor for 21 years. I tried market timing early on in my investing, and it was a failure. Every time. Dollar cost averaging, buy and hold, when the market is up I'm richer, when the market is down everything is on sale... these have been my go-to methods for 21 years, and they have served me well.
This time, for me, it's different. I'm not sitting here with $50k or $100k in the bank with another $25k or $50k going into 401k and Roth IRA accounts this year. I'm not looking at losing half of what I have in the volatility, but making it up with the new contributions. I have a lot more to lose, and my new contributions won't make a lot of difference in the long run for my overall portfolio. With the pandemic still ramping up, with the writing clearly on the wall that equities are objectively over-valued, I can't sit idle and just lose 40 or 50 or 60%, even if it's temporary in a 25-year time horizon.
You could argue, then, that my asset allocation doesn't match my current risk tolerance. You'd have a point. But even if my asset allocation was different, I'd still cash out. It's just too plain obvious that financial assets are over-valued.
Now, I could be wrong. We could see the market bounce around, up and down, and end up roughly where it is now over the next several months. Then maybe I'll miss out on some small gains, or maybe I'll be even money by buying back in about where things are today. On the other hand, maybe the market will drop 25 or 50%, and I'll dollar-cost average back in on the way down and up, and I'll make a bundle on this. Who knows? DW and I are willing to risk missing some slight upward opportunity for a chance to double our money.
The funny thing, as I was telling DW last night, is that the arguments in the this and a couple of other threads are basically one of these two:
1. OMG, the market valuations don't make any sense. I should sell! I'm selling!
-or-
2. Stay the course! Dollar-cost-average! Think long term! No market timing!
I don't see anyone arguing the hypothetical third option which is:
3. Market valuations are fantastic right now. Buy! Buy! Buy!
Personally, on it's own, I think option 3 is crazy. In the context of an overall strategy, I think option 2 is reasonable. For me, I think the best opportunities are in option 1.