In the past I paid off my mtg over the TFSA. But I was not a confident investor and only really did GICs back then. So the interest calculation was in favor of the mortgage.
How disciplined are you? Will you really take the extra and put it towards long term savings or will you go on a nice holiday with it? If you are disciplined do the TFSA. If you don’t trust yourself pay the mortgage.
Since you seem disciplined & confident in your investments, that helps you to lean towards the TFSA. Also the TFSA account is so flexible, there is almost nothing stopping you from cashing it out in May 2017 if the mtg rates are really high when you renew. Sure a complete market crash would be bad, but you seem quite balanced. I do not think a market crash AND high interest rates are likely to happen in May 2017. (But I am not a finance history trend expert or physic.)
Your time line is quite short, which is good and bad. Good because you will be done soon either way. Bad, because if there is a market crash, there is not much time for your TFSA to rebound.
See if you can aim for your TFSA and your mortgage amount due to converge in May 2017. Then you have your mortgage FU money when renegotiating with the bank.
I may do a move (or not!) by the end of november.
I would focus on TFSA from now until April 2016. In April decide if you want to put a lump sum on your mortgage (usually allowed 10-15% per year depending on your bank).