Author Topic: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal  (Read 1989 times)

Bobfatter

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Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« on: March 09, 2020, 09:56:16 AM »
Given the market downturn, would it make any sense to suspend continued investment until we see a little good news with the market?  Feels like catching knives right now. 

I am still young, with at least 12-15 years toward possible FIRE, so I can accept the risk, so maybe continue as normal would make more sense.

Was thinking if I paused investing for the interim, I could send all the money I would invest into a HYSA until we see some uptick.

erutio

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2020, 10:00:55 AM »
...
I am still young, with at least 12-15 years toward possible FIRE ...

This is the reason you should be continuing as normal, yes. 

bacchi

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2020, 10:02:38 AM »
+1 ^^^

This is a great sale. Take advantage and load up the truck. You have plenty of time to recover.

Saffron

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2020, 10:04:50 AM »
Stocks are on sale, baby! Buy! Buy! Buy!

Eurotexan

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2020, 10:04:54 AM »
Ignore the noise and stick to your investment plan. If you have extra cash laying around it might be a good time to dump it in the market, otherwise just stick to the course

DadJokes

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2020, 10:06:14 AM »
A few weeks ago, you were okay with paying ~$83/share for VTSAX, but now you're not okay paying ~$73/share for the same stock? Why be upset over a nice discount?

Like you, I have 10-15 years to go. I'm happily buying all the way down and will do the same all the way back up.

Bobfatter

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2020, 10:24:20 AM »
I guess my thought was if the market continues to go down, it may make more sense to buy at 65/share versus the current 73/share.

But I do agree, with my timeline, it should be OK.

Really just wanted to get the most bang for my buck with the "stock sale'. 

AdrianC

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2020, 11:12:28 AM »
I guess my thought was if the market continues to go down, it may make more sense to buy at 65/share versus the current 73/share.
Sure, if you know it will be 65/share...but you don't. Stay with the program.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2020, 11:32:07 AM »
DCA all the way!

Tass

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2020, 11:38:23 AM »
I've read enough accounts from older people on this forum about buying all the way down in 2008 and making it back and more in the following years. Like you, I have over a decade to go. For us, this decline is AMAZING timing and we should take advantage of it.

I buy every two weeks when my paycheck shows up. I do not check my investments in between. Sometimes there are drops big enough to make it into news headlines, and I read them with idle curiosity, and then I move on without worry. Do you really think this dip is going to look disastrous with 10 years of hindsight?

nereo

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2020, 11:42:17 AM »
Do you really think this dip is going to look disastrous with 10 years of hindsight?
^this.
Unless you are willing to put a *lot* of energy and analyses into it, market timing is a losing strategy.
Just keep doing what you have been doing. 

Stimpy

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2020, 01:30:23 PM »
What I have been suggesting, if your already auto investing, don't stop.   Your getting a discount!

If you have cash set aside (not play money), do as you will.  If your plan was already to get in with your already auto invested funds, do it.   If it was to wait for a big dip of some sort.... maybe wait, but don't be afraid to nibble here and there till it's all in.

If you have play money.  Wait a bit.  You'll see something worth it at some point, no point in shooting early when the dust is still in the air!

Tass

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2020, 02:59:32 PM »
Humans are pattern analyzers. We look at the market and see peaks and valleys. But we all agree that eventually the market will go up, which means - assuming you're willing to wait - today's peaks and valleys don't matter. Only the purchase price does.* It feels smart to keep buying as markets go up and foolish to do so as they slide, but when you're selling, those shapes will be meaningless.

If you regularly invest a fixed amount over decades, and then look back on any particular month, the purchases shown in these two graphs will be equivalent. The purchase prices are identical. It doesn't matter which way the market is moving.

Stay the course.

*I'm simplifying by ignoring dividends and taxes. If you're getting dividends, what matters is the absolute price + how long you've had the stock, which just improves the case for buying and holding.

Frankies Girl

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2020, 03:13:55 PM »


You are proposing to wait until stocks are at the bottom - the best possible price before they start recovery. Well, sure we'd all love to be psychic and know when that is coming. When is that going to be? Do you know? Do you think any of us know? Do you think ANY of the financial geniuses out there can tell you exactly what day that's going to happen?

Sitting on your money in the hopes that you can predict the day to get back in at the true bottom is called "catching a falling knife" and it sounds scary and dangerous because it is.

You stand a better chance of hurting yourself than actually catching it. Leaving the money on the sidelines is "safer" but it's also likely to cause you to miss out on the true bottom and all the bits right near it - the best possible prices - because you can't know with any certainty that WAS the bottom until we're already in recovery. It's a 20/20 thing.

So you do what has been suggested if you still have money to invest (due to income , "dry powder" or whatever) - you dollar cost average into the market, or just keep on investing on a set schedule which usually means when you get a pay period and put in the regular designated amount you planned anyway. You don't have to catch the knife; just follow it down and follow it back up, and keep on keeping on. You WILL catch the bottom (or near as dammit) by the nature of investing on a regular schedule if you do this, and you'll also have bought slightly above on the way down and back up... doesn't matter since ALL of it that is lower than the all times high is still a bargain price.


ketchup

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2020, 03:48:10 PM »
Double down on investing if you have the dollars and the stones.

SwordGuy

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #15 on: March 09, 2020, 10:46:32 PM »
I'll be very, very blunt.    This isn't to be mean, it's meant to be really, really helpful.

If you are thinking of stopping investing in stocks at the point in your life that you described, WHILE THEY ARE ON SALE, you have a metric shit-ton of learning to do.

That's because you've come up with an idea that is 100% backwards from what you should be doing at this point in time.

Your thinking process is COMPLETELY WRONG.

I suggest you google "JL Collins Stock Series" and read it three times in a row.

After you've done that, if you still don't understand why what you are suggesting is completely wrong for the situation in life you described, come back and ask why.  We'll be very glad to help.

PS -- That advice holds for anyone who agrees with the idea the OP is putting forth if they are in similar circumstances.

NaN

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2020, 07:36:02 AM »
Your thinking process is COMPLETELY WRONG.

I would agree. Backwards thinking.

I still think the market is over-priced. Probably has 15-25% more to go down, but still much better buying stock now then in early February at the top.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2020, 02:34:19 PM »
I will continue as normal, investing every week, because dips are normal even large sudden ones and my timeline is quite long.  I’m “down” 5 figures from the Top, an amount that would be unthinkable for me to “lose” pre-MMM a few years ago, but I don’t fear a bumpy ride anymore, I fear being too afraid to take risk that I let inflation destroy all hope of a comfortable retirement to avoid some short-term discomfort. 

Vapour

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Re: Temporarily Stop Investing? Or continue as normal
« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2020, 06:38:49 PM »
Do not stop investing now!!  Now is a great buying opportunity.  Yes, it may be catching falling knives.  But eventually the market will go back up.  And you have a chance to get a significant discount on your shares now, even if we're not at the bottom yet.  You just have to be willing to ignore all the fear and noise and just keep investing.