Author Topic: When would you get back in?  (Read 11482 times)

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5688
  • Age: 1
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #50 on: March 27, 2018, 07:34:24 PM »
I'm cashing out my 401k and starting a tulip farm.

Water them with bitcoins.

SwitchActiveDWG

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 176
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #51 on: March 27, 2018, 07:50:11 PM »
I'm putting everything in Beanie Babies again.

Squishys are the thing.

gredenko

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 15
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #52 on: April 02, 2018, 01:15:04 PM »
As are we all, which is why trying to predict when to get in and out is a waste of time and money. 

So taking all these factors into account that seem important to you, when are you pulling your money out?

I'm waiting to get in and would hate to lose 50%+ right at the entrance =) Especially, if there is a potential for a downturn to last any significant amount of time.

I think the same way, which is why I suggested not getting in now. It's also a psychological thing, and most people do not like to see their investment start off deeply in the red. Many would eventually exit and take the loss, so if you are willing to endure it, that's on you. As anyone can see from the last week's moves as well as today, the correction is not close to finished and should continue until some clear signal of a bottom is shown. As of now, there is none. 

Great entry point now that stocks have dropped about 10%. I'd get in 100%.

And now?

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9715
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #53 on: April 02, 2018, 01:39:10 PM »
...the correction is not close to finished and should continue until some clear signal of a bottom is shown.
What would that be?  No points for after-the-fact observations. :)

blinx7

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 262
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #54 on: April 02, 2018, 01:49:46 PM »

It's just like planting a tree.  The best time is 20 years ago.  The second best is today!

harvestbook

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 179
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #55 on: April 02, 2018, 02:19:32 PM »
Every day you wait, you are missing out on dividends. Maybe you can guess right (doubtful) jumping in and out but you're not compounding anything.

ooeei

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1143
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #56 on: April 02, 2018, 02:44:50 PM »
...the correction is not close to finished and should continue until some clear signal of a bottom is shown.
What would that be?  No points for after-the-fact observations. :)

I'd love to hear what the signal will be as well.

WhatFreshHell

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 11
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #57 on: April 02, 2018, 02:52:56 PM »
Every day you wait, you are missing out on dividends. Maybe you can guess right (doubtful) jumping in and out but you're not compounding anything.

This is the key thing I think most people ignore.

Just from my own experience when I hear people talk about stocks/index funds/etc they are only focused on the price, but never realize the value in the dividend gains over the period of time.

gredenko

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 15
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #58 on: April 02, 2018, 03:09:41 PM »
...the correction is not close to finished and should continue until some clear signal of a bottom is shown.
What would that be?  No points for after-the-fact observations. :)

That is true.  And good traders don't make any of their money from after the fact observations either!

If you are seriously considering investing in either the S&P 500 or Nasdaq indexes immediately after this correction ends (may take several weeks or even months the way the Nasdaq/S&P and the volatility indexes are looking currently), feel free to PM me.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8493
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #59 on: April 02, 2018, 03:18:00 PM »
If you are seriously considering investing in either the S&P 500 or Nasdaq indexes immediately after this correction ends (may take several weeks or even months the way the Nasdaq/S&P and the volatility indexes are looking currently), feel free to PM me.

Oooh, do you have a newsletter?

gredenko

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 15
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #60 on: April 02, 2018, 03:52:11 PM »
If you are seriously considering investing in either the S&P 500 or Nasdaq indexes immediately after this correction ends (may take several weeks or even months the way the Nasdaq/S&P and the volatility indexes are looking currently), feel free to PM me.

Oooh, do you have a newsletter?

What a good idea! I'll start one right now.

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 165
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #61 on: April 02, 2018, 05:02:22 PM »
In 2013 the p/e was around 17...with extremely low interest rates at the time I didn't see any logic in stating the US was overpriced back then because it simply wasn't

Now of course it is different territory and they do look high by any standard or metric..

MrThatsDifferent

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1564
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #62 on: April 02, 2018, 05:40:47 PM »
Look, I get why you all think the worrywarts are such a joke, youíre using fancy things like facts. But as a newbie to investing, who took over 40 years before deciding to dip themselves in this previously foreign environment, that I still donít get, this shit is scary! Last year, watching the returns go up and up was exciting as hell. Now, watching the numbers go down is depressing, even though I know itís a long game because you people, the helpful internet stranger people, keep telling us dimwits that itís all going to turn out perfect. Well, you try convincing unconvinced partner who doesnít believe in investing to give it a go when your money goes backwards! It ainít easy. So you all can mock and ridicule and rub our noses in all of this but remember, for many of us, this is new and weíre praying that our leap of faiths pay off and the sacrifices weíre making are worth it. None of us want to fuck this up. Empathy and compassion can go just as far, maybe farther than ridiculing and minimalizing peopleís fears and ignorance. I hope one day Iím as confident, knowledgeable and secure as the rest of you, but I ainít there yet, but at least Iím willing to be a part of the game.

Optimiser

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 571
  • Age: 36
  • Location: PNW
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #63 on: April 02, 2018, 05:44:13 PM »
I've seen this posted around here before. Seems relevant to the topic at hand.


There are always good sounding reasons why this time it's different.

Eric

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4061
  • Location: On my bike
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #64 on: April 02, 2018, 06:28:31 PM »
Look, I get why you all think the worrywarts are such a joke, youíre using fancy things like facts. But as a newbie to investing, who took over 40 years before deciding to dip themselves in this previously foreign environment, that I still donít get, this shit is scary! Last year, watching the returns go up and up was exciting as hell. Now, watching the numbers go down is depressing, even though I know itís a long game because you people, the helpful internet stranger people, keep telling us dimwits that itís all going to turn out perfect. Well, you try convincing unconvinced partner who doesnít believe in investing to give it a go when your money goes backwards! It ainít easy. So you all can mock and ridicule and rub our noses in all of this but remember, for many of us, this is new and weíre praying that our leap of faiths pay off and the sacrifices weíre making are worth it. None of us want to fuck this up. Empathy and compassion can go just as far, maybe farther than ridiculing and minimalizing peopleís fears and ignorance. I hope one day Iím as confident, knowledgeable and secure as the rest of you, but I ainít there yet, but at least Iím willing to be a part of the game.

I mean, the S&P is a bit better than -2% YTD.  -1.X% for the quarter.  There are going to be PLENTY of returns way, way worse than that over your investing lifetime.  If that sort of return is depressing, then maybe the stock market isn't for you.  Head on over to the Real Estate forum and find out how fun it is to be a landlord.  Otherwise, you just have to ignore short term noise.  Stop checking your accounts every day, every week, or even every month.  Set it and forget it.  That's the best advice anyone can give.


Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1589
  • Location: West of the Mountains, East of the Sea
  • One does not simply work into Mordor
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #65 on: April 02, 2018, 07:38:53 PM »
Look, I get why you all think the worrywarts are such a joke, youíre using fancy things like facts. But as a newbie to investing, who took over 40 years before deciding to dip themselves in this previously foreign environment, that I still donít get, this shit is scary! Last year, watching the returns go up and up was exciting as hell. Now, watching the numbers go down is depressing, even though I know itís a long game because you people, the helpful internet stranger people, keep telling us dimwits that itís all going to turn out perfect. Well, you try convincing unconvinced partner who doesnít believe in investing to give it a go when your money goes backwards! It ainít easy. So you all can mock and ridicule and rub our noses in all of this but remember, for many of us, this is new and weíre praying that our leap of faiths pay off and the sacrifices weíre making are worth it. None of us want to fuck this up. Empathy and compassion can go just as far, maybe farther than ridiculing and minimalizing peopleís fears and ignorance. I hope one day Iím as confident, knowledgeable and secure as the rest of you, but I ainít there yet, but at least Iím willing to be a part of the game.
That is a good point, it is best to spread your bets around a little to improve your chances of owning whatever ends up doing best over a given time period. We talk about the S&P500 or USTSM a lot here, but both are pretty under-diversified compared to all that is available. Generally it is best to plan in advance and have a decent allocation to stocks from around the globe as well as to bonds. It is perfectly acceptable if you decide decent-yielding Certificates of Deposit from a bank and Series I Savings Bonds straight from the Treasury Department are your definition of bonds. Neither can lose value, and I-bonds won't even lose real value. Generally I suggest:
+At least 50% stocks (backtesting has never or almost never shown a better result after 30 years or more by owning fewer than 50% stocks)
+Not more than 50% of the total in US or any other single country stocks
+10% to 40% in bonds
+Enough stocks should be allocated to international to make a difference
+A small amount of an additional diversifier is fine, and maybe even desirable
+Directly held real estate is a pretty nice addition, if you have the inclination

If you stick with that you greatly improve your odds and especially your mental situation. Then, rebalance every year or so.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2018, 07:42:01 PM by Radagast »

MrThatsDifferent

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1564
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #66 on: April 03, 2018, 04:08:50 AM »
Look, I get why you all think the worrywarts are such a joke, youíre using fancy things like facts. But as a newbie to investing, who took over 40 years before deciding to dip themselves in this previously foreign environment, that I still donít get, this shit is scary! Last year, watching the returns go up and up was exciting as hell. Now, watching the numbers go down is depressing, even though I know itís a long game because you people, the helpful internet stranger people, keep telling us dimwits that itís all going to turn out perfect. Well, you try convincing unconvinced partner who doesnít believe in investing to give it a go when your money goes backwards! It ainít easy. So you all can mock and ridicule and rub our noses in all of this but remember, for many of us, this is new and weíre praying that our leap of faiths pay off and the sacrifices weíre making are worth it. None of us want to fuck this up. Empathy and compassion can go just as far, maybe farther than ridiculing and minimalizing peopleís fears and ignorance. I hope one day Iím as confident, knowledgeable and secure as the rest of you, but I ainít there yet, but at least Iím willing to be a part of the game.

I mean, the S&P is a bit better than -2% YTD.  -1.X% for the quarter.  There are going to be PLENTY of returns way, way worse than that over your investing lifetime.  If that sort of return is depressing, then maybe the stock market isn't for you.  Head on over to the Real Estate forum and find out how fun it is to be a landlord.  Otherwise, you just have to ignore short term noise.  Stop checking your accounts every day, every week, or even every month.  Set it and forget it.  That's the best advice anyone can give.

The, stop checking accounts daily, is really what I need to and will stop doing. Iíve been checking daily and charting just to see the flow and what happens to my actual money, itís all been a learning experience and for some reason, Iím pretty slow with this. I think I need to just chart monthly as it keeps me focused and everything front of mind. I know I have to just trust the process.

Villanelle

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3111
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #67 on: April 03, 2018, 05:18:54 AM »
Why even track monthly?  That's not a rhetorical question.  What are you trying to accomplish?  What set of information would be actionable for you?  IOW, is there some "if I see X, I will do Y"?  If not, what is the point?  It's a source of stress for you, so don't do it.

If you personal investing statement (if you don't have one, make one!!!!) says you rebalance quarterly, then check quarterly, and not more often than that.  Also, that statement will have you making decisions when they are just theoretical and you can be rational and apply the stats and historical data that exists.  So spend some time on it, and be very thoughtful. And then, when the numbers start to spook you, you can fall back on that and know that you already said that when A happens, you are going to do B, and unless C happens you will not do D, and that should hopefully provide some comfort.

MrThatsDifferent

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1564
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #68 on: April 03, 2018, 06:23:51 AM »
Why even track monthly?  That's not a rhetorical question.  What are you trying to accomplish?  What set of information would be actionable for you?  IOW, is there some "if I see X, I will do Y"?  If not, what is the point?  It's a source of stress for you, so don't do it.

If you personal investing statement (if you don't have one, make one!!!!) says you rebalance quarterly, then check quarterly, and not more often than that.  Also, that statement will have you making decisions when they are just theoretical and you can be rational and apply the stats and historical data that exists.  So spend some time on it, and be very thoughtful. And then, when the numbers start to spook you, you can fall back on that and know that you already said that when A happens, you are going to do B, and unless C happens you will not do D, and that should hopefully provide some comfort.

I honestly donít know what a personal investment statement is and I donít know anything about rebalancing and honestly donít want to be that active with it. I do the  Vanguard life strategy high growth fund and let that do all the work. I check monthly so I can record my net worth for the challenges and so I remind myself why Iím doing it. It was great as the numbers shot up, slightly less great when the numbers go down but I guess they would be going down for everyone. Iíll try to not do it so frequently and see if that helps, or jut keep reminding myself, that itís ll a natural part of the journey and nothing to be afraid of. 

Brother Esau

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 516
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #69 on: April 03, 2018, 06:33:43 AM »
...the correction is not close to finished and should continue until some clear signal of a bottom is shown.
What would that be?  No points for after-the-fact observations. :)

I'd love to hear what the signal will be as well.

The signal will be when thorstach posts "Bottom is in!".

Scandium

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2261
  • Location: EastCoast
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #70 on: April 03, 2018, 08:34:41 AM »
...the correction is not close to finished and should continue until some clear signal of a bottom is shown.
What would that be?  No points for after-the-fact observations. :)

"reliable signals" have accurately predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions
« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 12:12:09 PM by Scandium »

wenchsenior

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2219
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #71 on: April 03, 2018, 09:06:19 AM »
Why even track monthly?  That's not a rhetorical question.  What are you trying to accomplish?  What set of information would be actionable for you?  IOW, is there some "if I see X, I will do Y"?  If not, what is the point?  It's a source of stress for you, so don't do it.

If you personal investing statement (if you don't have one, make one!!!!) says you rebalance quarterly, then check quarterly, and not more often than that.  Also, that statement will have you making decisions when they are just theoretical and you can be rational and apply the stats and historical data that exists.  So spend some time on it, and be very thoughtful. And then, when the numbers start to spook you, you can fall back on that and know that you already said that when A happens, you are going to do B, and unless C happens you will not do D, and that should hopefully provide some comfort.

I honestly donít know what a personal investment statement is and I donít know anything about rebalancing and honestly donít want to be that active with it. I do the  Vanguard life strategy high growth fund and let that do all the work. I check monthly so I can record my net worth for the challenges and so I remind myself why Iím doing it. It was great as the numbers shot up, slightly less great when the numbers go down but I guess they would be going down for everyone. Iíll try to not do it so frequently and see if that helps, or jut keep reminding myself, that itís ll a natural part of the journey and nothing to be afraid of.

I'm not trying to be snarky. I sincerely think you might have gotten into investing before you were entirely emotionally ready to do so.   Like you, I'm happy being pretty hands-off and using life-cycle type funds that re-balance for me.   But I do know HOW to re-balance and do it across my broader portfolio occasionally.  I have an investment PLAN so I know in advance how I will respond to all likely market conditions.  I don't have to keep wondering: "what will I do if...?"

Whereas, your anxiety over the past couple months' returns is of concern.  These recent stock market blips are NOTHING...like a speed bump on a 100 mile road.  We [ETA, I just realized you aren't in the U.S. and might be experiencing different conditions depending on investment vehicles] aren't even in a recession right now! The economy is strong.  But a recession is inevitable; what will your mental state be then?   What is your plan for when the the market mostly drops for a year, etc?  That is definitely going to happen at some point, so you need one.  How will you react if your investments decrease in value by >30% (as we experienced during 2008)?    Do you feel confident that you won't pull your money out and lock in your losses?  Do you feel confident that you will keep investing during those periods?  If not, you need to have an actual alternate plan as to exactly what you will do when the inevitable crap periods of returns arrive. 
« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 09:10:29 AM by wenchsenior »

Eric

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4061
  • Location: On my bike
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #72 on: April 03, 2018, 09:19:16 AM »
Look, I get why you all think the worrywarts are such a joke, youíre using fancy things like facts. But as a newbie to investing, who took over 40 years before deciding to dip themselves in this previously foreign environment, that I still donít get, this shit is scary! Last year, watching the returns go up and up was exciting as hell. Now, watching the numbers go down is depressing, even though I know itís a long game because you people, the helpful internet stranger people, keep telling us dimwits that itís all going to turn out perfect. Well, you try convincing unconvinced partner who doesnít believe in investing to give it a go when your money goes backwards! It ainít easy. So you all can mock and ridicule and rub our noses in all of this but remember, for many of us, this is new and weíre praying that our leap of faiths pay off and the sacrifices weíre making are worth it. None of us want to fuck this up. Empathy and compassion can go just as far, maybe farther than ridiculing and minimalizing peopleís fears and ignorance. I hope one day Iím as confident, knowledgeable and secure as the rest of you, but I ainít there yet, but at least Iím willing to be a part of the game.

I mean, the S&P is a bit better than -2% YTD.  -1.X% for the quarter.  There are going to be PLENTY of returns way, way worse than that over your investing lifetime.  If that sort of return is depressing, then maybe the stock market isn't for you.  Head on over to the Real Estate forum and find out how fun it is to be a landlord.  Otherwise, you just have to ignore short term noise.  Stop checking your accounts every day, every week, or even every month.  Set it and forget it.  That's the best advice anyone can give.

The, stop checking accounts daily, is really what I need to and will stop doing. Iíve been checking daily and charting just to see the flow and what happens to my actual money, itís all been a learning experience and for some reason, Iím pretty slow with this. I think I need to just chart monthly as it keeps me focused and everything front of mind. I know I have to just trust the process.

Yeah, you don't want to check daily.  That's enough to make anyone go mad.  There's a phrase about investing that is pretty reassuring to me:  When in doubt, zoom out.  Which means that the financial media, and most investors, wrongly focus on the short term.  Instead, zoom out on the chart to see what returns look like for the year, 5 years, 10 years, etc.  This is a long term thing.  Over time, you're going to come out ahead.  If the market gave a reliable return like a savings account, it would pay out at the same rate.  This volatility is what ends up making you money.

Have you read Jim Collins's Stock Series?  I'd recommend it.  He has a great way of distilling investing down to its basic principles in simple terms.  There's a number of posts, but the first 6 or so I'd consider required reading and then you can pick and choose after that. 

http://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/


MrThatsDifferent

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1564
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #73 on: April 03, 2018, 09:45:53 AM »
Why even track monthly?  That's not a rhetorical question.  What are you trying to accomplish?  What set of information would be actionable for you?  IOW, is there some "if I see X, I will do Y"?  If not, what is the point?  It's a source of stress for you, so don't do it.

If you personal investing statement (if you don't have one, make one!!!!) says you rebalance quarterly, then check quarterly, and not more often than that.  Also, that statement will have you making decisions when they are just theoretical and you can be rational and apply the stats and historical data that exists.  So spend some time on it, and be very thoughtful. And then, when the numbers start to spook you, you can fall back on that and know that you already said that when A happens, you are going to do B, and unless C happens you will not do D, and that should hopefully provide some comfort.

I honestly donít know what a personal investment statement is and I donít know anything about rebalancing and honestly donít want to be that active with it. I do the  Vanguard life strategy high growth fund and let that do all the work. I check monthly so I can record my net worth for the challenges and so I remind myself why Iím doing it. It was great as the numbers shot up, slightly less great when the numbers go down but I guess they would be going down for everyone. Iíll try to not do it so frequently and see if that helps, or jut keep reminding myself, that itís ll a natural part of the journey and nothing to be afraid of.

I'm not trying to be snarky. I sincerely think you might have gotten into investing before you were entirely emotionally ready to do so.   Like you, I'm happy being pretty hands-off and using life-cycle type funds that re-balance for me.   But I do know HOW to re-balance and do it across my broader portfolio occasionally.  I have an investment PLAN so I know in advance how I will respond to all likely market conditions.  I don't have to keep wondering: "what will I do if...?"

Whereas, your anxiety over the past couple months' returns is of concern.  These recent stock market blips are NOTHING...like a speed bump on a 100 mile road.  We [ETA, I just realized you aren't in the U.S. and might be experiencing different conditions depending on investment vehicles] aren't even in a recession right now! The economy is strong.  But a recession is inevitable; what will your mental state be then?   What is your plan for when the the market mostly drops for a year, etc?  That is definitely going to happen at some point, so you need one.  How will you react if your investments decrease in value by >30% (as we experienced during 2008)?    Do you feel confident that you won't pull your money out and lock in your losses?  Do you feel confident that you will keep investing during those periods?  If not, you need to have an actual alternate plan as to exactly what you will do when the inevitable crap periods of returns arrive.

I debated investing for a bit but was convinced by MMM to give it a go. I donít regret it. I read the forums, understand that itís going to get worse, but itís different seeing it. Iím committed to the til 60 plan unless an emergency or we need the money for property. I know it has to stay no matter what though and have plans for cash reserves to get me through until Iím early 60s. The point of my post is maybe for people to not treat us newbies like fools to ridicule as it is scary, no one in my family invests, and itís a lot to get our head around. Iíll grow into it. Thanks.

MrThatsDifferent

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1564
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #74 on: April 03, 2018, 09:48:45 AM »
Look, I get why you all think the worrywarts are such a joke, youíre using fancy things like facts. But as a newbie to investing, who took over 40 years before deciding to dip themselves in this previously foreign environment, that I still donít get, this shit is scary! Last year, watching the returns go up and up was exciting as hell. Now, watching the numbers go down is depressing, even though I know itís a long game because you people, the helpful internet stranger people, keep telling us dimwits that itís all going to turn out perfect. Well, you try convincing unconvinced partner who doesnít believe in investing to give it a go when your money goes backwards! It ainít easy. So you all can mock and ridicule and rub our noses in all of this but remember, for many of us, this is new and weíre praying that our leap of faiths pay off and the sacrifices weíre making are worth it. None of us want to fuck this up. Empathy and compassion can go just as far, maybe farther than ridiculing and minimalizing peopleís fears and ignorance. I hope one day Iím as confident, knowledgeable and secure as the rest of you, but I ainít there yet, but at least Iím willing to be a part of the game.

I mean, the S&P is a bit better than -2% YTD.  -1.X% for the quarter.  There are going to be PLENTY of returns way, way worse than that over your investing lifetime.  If that sort of return is depressing, then maybe the stock market isn't for you.  Head on over to the Real Estate forum and find out how fun it is to be a landlord.  Otherwise, you just have to ignore short term noise.  Stop checking your accounts every day, every week, or even every month.  Set it and forget it.  That's the best advice anyone can give.

The, stop checking accounts daily, is really what I need to and will stop doing. Iíve been checking daily and charting just to see the flow and what happens to my actual money, itís all been a learning experience and for some reason, Iím pretty slow with this. I think I need to just chart monthly as it keeps me focused and everything front of mind. I know I have to just trust the process.

Yeah, you don't want to check daily.  That's enough to make anyone go mad.  There's a phrase about investing that is pretty reassuring to me:  When in doubt, zoom out.  Which means that the financial media, and most investors, wrongly focus on the short term.  Instead, zoom out on the chart to see what returns look like for the year, 5 years, 10 years, etc.  This is a long term thing.  Over time, you're going to come out ahead.  If the market gave a reliable return like a savings account, it would pay out at the same rate.  This volatility is what ends up making you money.

Have you read Jim Collins's Stock Series?  I'd recommend it.  He has a great way of distilling investing down to its basic principles in simple terms.  There's a number of posts, but the first 6 or so I'd consider required reading and then you can pick and choose after that. 

http://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/

Yeah, read all of that before I pulled the trigger. He just confirmed what MMM said. I then talked to people on here to work out that I needed something low stress and easily managed to get into, so lifestyle funds fit perfect. I just obsessed with checking and also trying to convince my partner. Harder to convince partner now. Thatís ok. Slow and steady...

wenchsenior

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2219
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #75 on: April 03, 2018, 09:52:37 AM »
Why even track monthly?  That's not a rhetorical question.  What are you trying to accomplish?  What set of information would be actionable for you?  IOW, is there some "if I see X, I will do Y"?  If not, what is the point?  It's a source of stress for you, so don't do it.

If you personal investing statement (if you don't have one, make one!!!!) says you rebalance quarterly, then check quarterly, and not more often than that.  Also, that statement will have you making decisions when they are just theoretical and you can be rational and apply the stats and historical data that exists.  So spend some time on it, and be very thoughtful. And then, when the numbers start to spook you, you can fall back on that and know that you already said that when A happens, you are going to do B, and unless C happens you will not do D, and that should hopefully provide some comfort.

I honestly don’t know what a personal investment statement is and I don’t know anything about rebalancing and honestly don’t want to be that active with it. I do the  Vanguard life strategy high growth fund and let that do all the work. I check monthly so I can record my net worth for the challenges and so I remind myself why I’m doing it. It was great as the numbers shot up, slightly less great when the numbers go down but I guess they would be going down for everyone. I’ll try to not do it so frequently and see if that helps, or jut keep reminding myself, that it’s ll a natural part of the journey and nothing to be afraid of.

I'm not trying to be snarky. I sincerely think you might have gotten into investing before you were entirely emotionally ready to do so.   Like you, I'm happy being pretty hands-off and using life-cycle type funds that re-balance for me.   But I do know HOW to re-balance and do it across my broader portfolio occasionally.  I have an investment PLAN so I know in advance how I will respond to all likely market conditions.  I don't have to keep wondering: "what will I do if...?"

Whereas, your anxiety over the past couple months' returns is of concern.  These recent stock market blips are NOTHING...like a speed bump on a 100 mile road.  We [ETA, I just realized you aren't in the U.S. and might be experiencing different conditions depending on investment vehicles] aren't even in a recession right now! The economy is strong.  But a recession is inevitable; what will your mental state be then?   What is your plan for when the the market mostly drops for a year, etc?  That is definitely going to happen at some point, so you need one.  How will you react if your investments decrease in value by >30% (as we experienced during 2008)?    Do you feel confident that you won't pull your money out and lock in your losses?  Do you feel confident that you will keep investing during those periods?  If not, you need to have an actual alternate plan as to exactly what you will do when the inevitable crap periods of returns arrive.

I debated investing for a bit but was convinced by MMM to give it a go. I don’t regret it. I read the forums, understand that it’s going to get worse, but it’s different seeing it. I’m committed to the til 60 plan unless an emergency or we need the money for property. I know it has to stay no matter what though and have plans for cash reserves to get me through until I’m early 60s. The point of my post is maybe for people to not treat us newbies like fools to ridicule as it is scary, no one in my family invests, and it’s a lot to get our head around. I’ll grow into it. Thanks.


Ok, that's good to hear. FWIW, personality and upbringing definitely plays a role.  My husband is more emotional about money than I am, and comes from near poverty. He would have a lot of trouble staying calm were he in charge of our investment plan.  I tend to talk to him more about our investments when the market is doing well, and focus on other things that we can control in our daily lives when the market is not doing well.  But for most people, once you weather a few bad patches, it does help remove some of the anxiety, even in people like my husband.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 09:54:33 AM by wenchsenior »

tooqk4u22

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2199
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #76 on: April 03, 2018, 10:09:47 AM »
In 2013 the p/e was around 17...with extremely low interest rates at the time I didn't see any logic in stating the US was overpriced back then because it simply wasn't

Now of course it is different territory and they do look high by any standard or metric..

You are not looking at it correctly due to the tax law change.  The current TTM PE is 24 for SP 500, yet there are no benefits of the tax law factored in yet as no 2018 earnings have yet to be reported.  So the effective or forward PE is actually lower and is about 17-18 provided earnings are in line with consensus estimates or in line with your 2013 figure.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11094
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #77 on: April 03, 2018, 10:12:06 AM »
wait, what... there are no benefits of the tax law factored in yet...??
seriously?

tooqk4u22

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2199
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #78 on: April 03, 2018, 10:20:38 AM »
wait, what... there are no benefits of the tax law factored in yet...??
seriously?

Into the earnings.....you know the denominator of the P/E.  Sure, price has factored in the expected earnings but the earnings need to be reported throughout the year in order to be reflected into the P/E so it results in the current P/E being inflated.  Another thing that may be contributing to the high P/E is that at the end of the year after the law was passed a number of companies (mostly banks) that had deferred taxes had to write those down as they are worth less - so earnings were temporarily depressed in Q4.

« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 10:24:29 AM by tooqk4u22 »

chadat23

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 19
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #79 on: April 03, 2018, 10:34:52 AM »
Ha, so after all of the talk on what to do, the period over which I was considering waiting passed without the money ending up in my account. It finally made it there last Friday but Vanguard wasn't trading that day because of the holiday so I placed an order for VTSAX over the weekend. After things were settled yesterday I saw that VTSAX was down 5.2% compared to the day that my money was taken out of the old account and about 3% since the day I was expecting to have the money back in my account so I'm happy with how things played out.

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1589
  • Location: West of the Mountains, East of the Sea
  • One does not simply work into Mordor
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #80 on: April 03, 2018, 10:51:50 AM »
Look, I get why you all think the worrywarts are such a joke, youíre using fancy things like facts. But as a newbie to investing, who took over 40 years before deciding to dip themselves in this previously foreign environment, that I still donít get, this shit is scary! Last year, watching the returns go up and up was exciting as hell. Now, watching the numbers go down is depressing, even though I know itís a long game because you people, the helpful internet stranger people, keep telling us dimwits that itís all going to turn out perfect. Well, you try convincing unconvinced partner who doesnít believe in investing to give it a go when your money goes backwards! It ainít easy. So you all can mock and ridicule and rub our noses in all of this but remember, for many of us, this is new and weíre praying that our leap of faiths pay off and the sacrifices weíre making are worth it. None of us want to fuck this up. Empathy and compassion can go just as far, maybe farther than ridiculing and minimalizing peopleís fears and ignorance. I hope one day Iím as confident, knowledgeable and secure as the rest of you, but I ainít there yet, but at least Iím willing to be a part of the game.

I mean, the S&P is a bit better than -2% YTD.  -1.X% for the quarter.  There are going to be PLENTY of returns way, way worse than that over your investing lifetime.  If that sort of return is depressing, then maybe the stock market isn't for you.  Head on over to the Real Estate forum and find out how fun it is to be a landlord.  Otherwise, you just have to ignore short term noise.  Stop checking your accounts every day, every week, or even every month.  Set it and forget it.  That's the best advice anyone can give.

The, stop checking accounts daily, is really what I need to and will stop doing. Iíve been checking daily and charting just to see the flow and what happens to my actual money, itís all been a learning experience and for some reason, Iím pretty slow with this. I think I need to just chart monthly as it keeps me focused and everything front of mind. I know I have to just trust the process.

Yeah, you don't want to check daily.  That's enough to make anyone go mad.  There's a phrase about investing that is pretty reassuring to me:  When in doubt, zoom out.  Which means that the financial media, and most investors, wrongly focus on the short term.  Instead, zoom out on the chart to see what returns look like for the year, 5 years, 10 years, etc.  This is a long term thing.  Over time, you're going to come out ahead.  If the market gave a reliable return like a savings account, it would pay out at the same rate.  This volatility is what ends up making you money.

Have you read Jim Collins's Stock Series?  I'd recommend it.  He has a great way of distilling investing down to its basic principles in simple terms.  There's a number of posts, but the first 6 or so I'd consider required reading and then you can pick and choose after that. 

http://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/

Yeah, read all of that before I pulled the trigger. He just confirmed what MMM said. I then talked to people on here to work out that I needed something low stress and easily managed to get into, so lifestyle funds fit perfect. I just obsessed with checking and also trying to convince my partner. Harder to convince partner now. Thatís ok. Slow and steady...
I've been tracking the total amount of money made in investments, which is currently about $37,000. Even if things get rocky I expect it to remain strongly positive, so that is the number I report to DW. Hard for her to argue against investing, whether we made $40K or only $20k!

GillyMack

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 37
  • Location: Southern Swamp
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #81 on: April 04, 2018, 07:15:10 AM »
Ha, so after all of the talk on what to do, the period over which I was considering waiting passed without the money ending up in my account. It finally made it there last Friday but Vanguard wasn't trading that day because of the holiday so I placed an order for VTSAX over the weekend. After things were settled yesterday I saw that VTSAX was down 5.2% compared to the day that my money was taken out of the old account and about 3% since the day I was expecting to have the money back in my account so I'm happy with how things played out.

Iím glad that it accidentally worked out well for you.  It must have been stressful just waiting and waiting for the money to clear.

Scandium

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2261
  • Location: EastCoast
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #82 on: April 04, 2018, 09:30:22 AM »
I've been tracking the total amount of money made in investments, which is currently about $37,000. Even if things get rocky I expect it to remain strongly positive, so that is the number I report to DW. Hard for her to argue against investing, whether we made $40K or only $20k!

I feel like this could backfire, when the market crashes and your wife ask how much you lost. Maybe she's ok "only" making $20k, but how will she feel when you have to tell her you lost $100k+?

My wife don't care much about investing. Just got her 401k set up to max and can't be bothered beyond that. I don't "brag" about how much we made precisely so won't have to discuss how much we lost at some point. She understand that the nature of it and I think she'd be ok, but no need to prime her expectations to be that the market only goes up. If it come up how much our accounts went up I'm quick to say "well, could of course drop by 50% tomorrow"

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1589
  • Location: West of the Mountains, East of the Sea
  • One does not simply work into Mordor
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #83 on: April 04, 2018, 01:51:27 PM »
I've been tracking the total amount of money made in investments, which is currently about $37,000. Even if things get rocky I expect it to remain strongly positive, so that is the number I report to DW. Hard for her to argue against investing, whether we made $40K or only $20k!

I feel like this could backfire, when the market crashes and your wife ask how much you lost. Maybe she's ok "only" making $20k, but how will she feel when you have to tell her you lost $100k+?

My wife don't care much about investing. Just got her 401k set up to max and can't be bothered beyond that. I don't "brag" about how much we made precisely so won't have to discuss how much we lost at some point. She understand that the nature of it and I think she'd be ok, but no need to prime her expectations to be that the market only goes up. If it come up how much our accounts went up I'm quick to say "well, could of course drop by 50% tomorrow"
This method keeps things focused on the long term net result of our investing, which has a pretty good chance of only ever being a positive number since early 2016, even more because I only calculate it every three months. A 100k loss is pretty close to impossible, it would take around a 70% loss from today, and within a couple years even a repeat of the Great Depression would not result in a net -100k. That's why I emphasize the net number, it will likely always show us being considerably wealthier as a result of investing, even after a crash.

I don't think "brag" is the right word, it is a financial discussion that comes up 2-3 times a year regarding where our money is since it is obviously not manifesting itself as a McMansion or BMW.

Scandium

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2261
  • Location: EastCoast
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #84 on: April 04, 2018, 02:02:33 PM »
I've been tracking the total amount of money made in investments, which is currently about $37,000. Even if things get rocky I expect it to remain strongly positive, so that is the number I report to DW. Hard for her to argue against investing, whether we made $40K or only $20k!

I feel like this could backfire, when the market crashes and your wife ask how much you lost. Maybe she's ok "only" making $20k, but how will she feel when you have to tell her you lost $100k+?

My wife don't care much about investing. Just got her 401k set up to max and can't be bothered beyond that. I don't "brag" about how much we made precisely so won't have to discuss how much we lost at some point. She understand that the nature of it and I think she'd be ok, but no need to prime her expectations to be that the market only goes up. If it come up how much our accounts went up I'm quick to say "well, could of course drop by 50% tomorrow"
This method keeps things focused on the long term net result of our investing, which has a pretty good chance of only ever being a positive number since early 2016, even more because I only calculate it every three months. A 100k loss is pretty close to impossible, it would take around a 70% loss from today, and within a couple years even a repeat of the Great Depression would not result in a net -100k. That's why I emphasize the net number, it will likely always show us being considerably wealthier as a result of investing, even after a crash.

I don't think "brag" is the right word, it is a financial discussion that comes up 2-3 times a year regarding where our money is since it is obviously not manifesting itself as a McMansion or BMW.

That's why I put brag in quotes. Just meant stuff like "hey wife, we made $10k last month!". Sure, it's cool, but this could result in her being conditioned to only making money in the market. That's all I meant. If it works for you great, I'm just always careful to mention potential downsides, before they surprise us :) Helps with my on mental state too.

Also surprised you say loosing $100k is close to impossible. At some point I'm sure you'll have $500k in the market? A 25% drop in the market isn't that uncommon. Or you'll probably have a million eventually, and dropping 10% happens frequently. 


Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1589
  • Location: West of the Mountains, East of the Sea
  • One does not simply work into Mordor
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #85 on: April 04, 2018, 02:14:29 PM »
Also surprised you say loosing $100k is close to impossible. At some point I'm sure you'll have $500k in the market? A 25% drop in the market isn't that uncommon. Or you'll probably have a million eventually, and dropping 10% happens frequently.
On a net basis it is pretty close to impossible (Current value - sum of deposited value). Measuring from the peak it is easily possible and expected, so I prefer not to measure from the peak.

ysette9

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5674
  • Location: Bay Area, CA
    • Insert Snappy Title Here (Journal)
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #86 on: April 04, 2018, 03:45:13 PM »
In your shoes I would invest everything as quickly as I could. Market timing is a fool’s game.

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1589
  • Location: West of the Mountains, East of the Sea
  • One does not simply work into Mordor
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #87 on: April 04, 2018, 07:18:28 PM »
Also surprised you say loosing $100k is close to impossible. At some point I'm sure you'll have $500k in the market? A 25% drop in the market isn't that uncommon. Or you'll probably have a million eventually, and dropping 10% happens frequently.
On a net basis it is pretty close to impossible (Current value - sum of deposited value). Measuring from the peak it is easily possible and expected, so I prefer not to measure from the peak.
As an example, right now I can say "we have placed $170k into our investment accounts, and they are worth $210K now". If the market declines 20% by the end of June (~30% from peak) I will be able to say something like "we have placed $180k into our investment accounts and they are worth $180K right now, good time to buy!." But no net loss.

After playing with Portfolio Visualizer for a few minutes, I think nobody who invested $4000 of new money into VTSMX monthly would ever have suffered a $100K net loss, even in 2008-9. If they started early enough they would have had a low enough cost basis to avoid that big net loss, and if they started later they would not have enough invested for a 100k net loss to be possible. Whatever the circumstances are that make a 100k net loss possible on a 4k monthly investment, my guess is they have not occurred since the Great Depression. So our odds of avoiding it now after three+ years of gains are pretty good.

If you invested 5k monthly or more, a 100k net loss would have been possible in 2008-2009. Probably out of the cards for us at this point though, even as our monthly contributions increase by ~80% over the next year.

Patrick584

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 12
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #88 on: April 04, 2018, 07:54:36 PM »
I think the correct answer that you should always be invested is well captured. Based on the fact that trades are free, your question is no different than the scenario of selling your position after a downturn. It worries me that some posters on this forum believe that a future expected return changes based on past  performance.

theolympians

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 135
Re: When would you get back in?
« Reply #89 on: April 05, 2018, 10:13:19 AM »
I didn't read all the posts, I just skimmed the first page. The posts started with: get in immediately to wait a couple days. At the bottom of the page there were a couple, "The crash is coming!" posts.

The danger of waiting a couple days, is that you will see confirmation bias. No doubt you will check all the networks which will talk about all the negatives in the long term. Feeding your hesitation, you'll wait a couple more days, then a few, more, then wait until after vacation, then forget about it for a couple months. You'll wake up one day and a year will have passed.

I would put it in now and forget it.