Author Topic: SWR for less than 30 years  (Read 3694 times)

psu256

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SWR for less than 30 years
« on: July 24, 2013, 09:30:20 PM »
Hi,
I was looking at info for how much I might have to save in "non-old person" money, and so I was trying to find out the SWR for some other time frames, and I came across this:

http://www.fpanet.org/journal/currentissue/tableofcontents/capitalmarketexpectations

I haven't read the whole write-up yet, but I was specifically interested in this table:
http://www.fpanet.org/docs/assets/57F51DB8-B1B0-0D53-FA89E33DFE026F17/Pfau-Table-3.jpg

If it is accurate, it is pretty interesting.

footenote

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Re: SWR for less than 30 years
« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2013, 06:53:18 AM »
I read it and enjoyed the author's perspective. I had never seen a table with acceptable failure rates, so thank you for sharing.

matchewed

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Re: SWR for less than 30 years
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2013, 07:07:25 AM »
Ah an article by Wade Pfau, he's an incredibly intelligent economist who seems to focus on retirement. From my aggressive perspective I think he's got a conservative bias that may be formed from this last recession and slow recovery but he's got his stuff together. His website is a treasure trove of information - http://wpfau.blogspot.com/.

arebelspy

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Re: SWR for less than 30 years
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2013, 10:20:58 AM »
Ah an article by Wade Pfau, he's an incredibly intelligent economist who seems to focus on retirement. From my aggressive perspective I think he's got a conservative bias that may be formed from this last recession and slow recovery but he's got his stuff together. His website is a treasure trove of information - http://wpfau.blogspot.com/.

+1.

That table linked above by psu256 is quite helpful for the early retiree looking to get to their age 59.5 money and wondering what SWR is for bridging the gap.  Clearly not 4%, as that's designed to last 30 years (95% of the time).  If you need to bridge the gap for only 15 years (you are 44), you can withdraw more... but how much?  That chart is very helpful in that case.

Thanks for sharing.

That 2.8% SWR for the conservative early retiree looking for 40 years and a 99% safe rate is pretty scary.  OMY.  Course by the time you're that close, it accelerates fairly quickly.
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aj_yooper

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Re: SWR for less than 30 years
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2013, 05:13:33 PM »
That 2.8% SWR for the conservative early retiree looking for 40 years and a 99% safe rate is pretty scary.  OMY.  Course by the time you're that close, it accelerates fairly quickly.

In his books, William Bernstein tends to use the 3% SWR generally as a safer rate.  He also recommends waiting to age 70 to take Social Security; that increases SSB by almost a third, or a guaranteed 8% real rate of return as compared to claiming benefits at 66 (in this example).  Younger individuals max out at 67 or later now.