Author Topic: SVB goes under  (Read 9884 times)

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #50 on: March 11, 2023, 11:37:54 AM »
I've been reading about this all week. It's terrible. I feel especially bad for all the people at the end of the line, the workers whose paychecks will be delayed (or who just won't get paid).

There have been a number of articles on how the last Administration's rollback of Dodd Frank may have come into play here. I haven't see anyone comment on that in this thread yet.

"In 2015, SVB President Greg Becker submitted a statement to a Senate panel pushing legislators to exempt more banks — including his own — from new regulations passed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Despite warnings from some senators, Becker’s lobbying effort was ultimately successful."

And their desire to ease restrictions with financial regulatory reform was successful with the last Administration:

"The measure eases restrictions on all but the largest banks. It raises the threshold to $250 billion from $50 billion under which banks are deemed too important to the financial system to fail. Those institutions also would not have to undergo stress tests or submit so-called living wills, both safety valves designed to plan for financial disaster. It eases mortgage loan data reporting requirements for the overwhelming majority of banks. It would add some safeguards for student loan borrowers and also require credit reporting companies to provide free credit monitoring services."

And so

"In 2021, SVB passed the threshold of $100 billion under management, triggering some additional scrutiny as a Category IV bank but remaining exempt from the more frequent and detailed analyses that regulators perform to determine whether banks above $250 billion of assets have sufficient capital to withstand a crisis."

Makes me furious.  Another set of serious consequences for individuals and taxpayers thanks to corporate greed and the politicians they own. 
And we're not even done dealing with the Norfolk Southern disaster and the financial and environmental fallout from that. 

A handful of people can make life hell for millions and then walk away with no punishment whatsoever.

I'm sorry, but our current banking requirements and capital controls are as sophisticated and conservative as the United States has ever seen. There used to be hundreds of bank runs PER YEAR. Also, train derailments are incredibly low compared to what they used to be. Why are you mad? Do intend to live in a world with ZERO risk of anything bad happening of any kind? Boy I sure don't. Because without risk, there can be no return. Return in this case can be considered life as we know it.

dandarc

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #51 on: March 11, 2023, 11:40:01 AM »
What is likely to happen is the bank's assets will be bought up by one of the major banks with an agreement with the FDIC to make all depositors whole, even the uninsured amounts. Probably by Monday. Because there is a huge incentive to just about everyone to keep this to a blip.

I've seen this prediction too and I understand that technically SVB is solvent (if they could only reallocate or wait for funds to mature and of course if there wasn't a run at all). But what I'm wondering is what bank is going to want to take this on with the 1% bonds in place? If they fire sale those bonds it doesn't seem like they will have enough money to cover all the over 250k account. Plus since the run was psychological, the bank that takes this on might end up with a run too. I guess if it was broken up between financial institutions, the psychology part could be mitigated.  And we could be looking at another government bail out of some sort....but Americans are still pretty salty about 08 (especially Millennials).

Anyway, it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.   

thanks @chasesfish

The difference is the low-interest rate mortgage bonds are not also experiencing massive increase in default rates at the same time on the underlying mortgages. The sale that triggered the problem was of U.S. Treasuries. So a bank that can afford to hold them to maturity can make out like a bandit this time around.

The other thing is, this might pressure the Fed to slow, stop, possibly even reverse on the interest rate hikes - it that plays out, bond values stabilize and start increasing quickly. A bank large enough to take on this risk and hold for even a few years is likely to make out very well.

Plus this is a potentially cheap way to gain some customers.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2023, 11:42:51 AM by dandarc »

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #52 on: March 11, 2023, 11:42:18 AM »
IF SVB isn't bailed out (privately or publicly), and folks with deposits can't access that money for an extended period of time (I don't expect this to happen, but there is a chance, call it 15%). Boy, you are staring at a 2008-style event. Another bank will get run on, then another. Eventually, the Treasury will have to step in. Also, it wouldn't be unreasonable in this event, to see the FED convene in an emergency meeting and completely stop QT, if not even initiate QE, as well as drop rates close to zero, once again.

Again, this is if nobody bails out SVB, which I don't expect to happen, but boy it's going to be a tough political move to bail out a bunch of VC's and businesses in Silicon Valley, even if it was the right move.

No, that is not what I was saying at all. If the govt steps in, they will and should command equity and a strong return for covering the depositers. Shareholders and management are already done, zero, wiped out. It is the deposit holders we are talking about here. Making them whole will sure up the psychology of all the other uninsured deposit holders in every other small and regional bank in the United States (that is a lot). This is not about socializing losses.

Yep… privatize profit, socialize loss. Again.

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #53 on: March 11, 2023, 11:48:58 AM »
What is likely to happen is the bank's assets will be bought up by one of the major banks with an agreement with the FDIC to make all depositors whole, even the uninsured amounts. Probably by Monday. Because there is a huge incentive to just about everyone to keep this to a blip.

I've seen this prediction too and I understand that technically SVB is solvent (if they could only reallocate or wait for funds to mature and of course if there wasn't a run at all). But what I'm wondering is what bank is going to want to take this on with the 1% bonds in place? If they fire sale those bonds it doesn't seem like they will have enough money to cover all the over 250k account. Plus since the run was psychological, the bank that takes this on might end up with a run too. I guess if it was broken up between financial institutions, the psychology part could be mitigated.  And we could be looking at another government bail out of some sort....but Americans are still pretty salty about 08 (especially Millennials).

Anyway, it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.   

thanks @chasesfish

The difference is the low-interest rate mortgage bonds are not also experiencing massive increase in default rates at the same time on the underlying mortgages. The sale that triggered the problem was of U.S. Treasuries. So a bank that can afford to hold them to maturity can make out like a bandit this time around.

The other thing is, this might pressure the Fed to slow, stop, possibly even reverse on the interest rate hikes - it that plays out, bond values stabilize and start increasing quickly. A bank large enough to take on this risk and hold for even a few years is likely to make out very well.

Plus this is a potentially cheap way to gain some customers.

This is by far the most likely scenario. In fact, it's the only scenario. Otherwise, sheeesh, look out below.

chasesfish

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #54 on: March 11, 2023, 01:21:46 PM »
What @dandarc said could happen.  It might not even involve the FDIC.  Wachovia failed under similar circumstances and was taken over by the FDIC with a deal to Citigroup.  Wells Fargo came in and offered $2/share or something and subsequently bought the entire bank.

I don't think this happens here because SVB's loan portfolio is a bit abnormal.  I've seen predictions anywhere from 70 cents on the dollar to being made whole on the deposits.  Currently SVB bonds trade for $0.35 on the dollar and bondholders get paid after all depositors are paid, so the people with opinions that are also putting money behind it say 100% is returned plus some residual value for the bondholders. 

@JupiterGreen I'm interested in seeing what happens with those securities.  Can the federal reserve buy them at par?  I'm not sure they have the authority.   The treasury can't because that would require congressional action and we are already at our debt limit because politicians refuse to have an adult conversation and instead play theatre all day.  I can't see an appetite for transferring a loss from transaction deposits for venture capitalists to the taxpayers.   This just isn't grandma / grandpa losing their life savings.   Who knows, I could be wrong. 

I bet the securities are sold into the market at market prices, equity holders get wiped out, but bondholders get something.   The question will come down to what will other banks pay for SVB's loans, which are unfortunately concentrated in technology companies and to "wealth" clients with a lot of closely held tech stock.

FINate

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #55 on: March 11, 2023, 01:55:54 PM »
The feds should let deposit holders take a haircut, 70-80 cents on the dollar or whatever. These are uninsured deposits held by sophisticated institutions/VCs concentrated in a single industry and region. No doubt the SV crowd will cry 'contagion' because they want to be made whole, but I don't see why the feds would do this or why another bank would fall on their sword for this. No good deed goes unpunished, and what happened with fines/penalties for acquiring banks in '08 must be on the minds of the C-suite. The tech industry was already frothy, so this would also tamp this down further w/o much impact on other industries.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2023, 01:59:11 PM by FINate »

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #56 on: March 11, 2023, 02:32:27 PM »
The feds should let deposit holders take a haircut, 70-80 cents on the dollar or whatever. These are uninsured deposits held by sophisticated institutions/VCs concentrated in a single industry and region. No doubt the SV crowd will cry 'contagion' because they want to be made whole, but I don't see why the feds would do this or why another bank would fall on their sword for this. No good deed goes unpunished, and what happened with fines/penalties for acquiring banks in '08 must be on the minds of the C-suite. The tech industry was already frothy, so this would also tamp this down further w/o much impact on other industries.

Time will tell. Boy if they only get 70 cents on the dollar, and no other banks get run on, I would be absolutely astonished.

iluvzbeach

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #57 on: March 11, 2023, 02:36:20 PM »
PTF because this is my former industry and I have a keen interest in what folks say and how this all pans out.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #58 on: March 11, 2023, 03:40:36 PM »
It is rare to see someone with relevant expertise, but to me Matt Levine qualifies:

"After graduating Harvard, Levine was a high school Latin teacher. He left that profession for law school and became a mergers and acquisitions lawyer for the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. He later went on to become an investment banker for Goldman Sachs, where he structured and marketed corporate equity derivatives for four years. Levine was also a law clerk for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)

Note that most banks do not focus solely on Silicon Valley startups owned by a handful of VC firms.  That concentration caused the bank run to be larger than it normally would, and all SVB had to sell were U.S. long-term treasuries which had taken significant mark to market losses.  Held to maturity, SVB had enough money... but selling 20+ years too soon, they had to accept a lower market price, and no longer had enough assets to cover customer deposits.
https://archive.ph/Ger2q#selection-3463.0-3463.11

Startups need cash to stay in business.  Some will go under because they counted on deposits at SVB.  Others will watch as the combination of SVB and scared Venture Capital does not provide ongoing funding, and they no longer have enough to stay in business.  My guess is that these startups are about to be pounding on the doors of private equity (PE) firms, desperate to be bought.
I think the beginning is correct, the conclusion is not.  The SIVB bond pricing expects a 100% recovery on deposits.  The question is how much and how quick.
I think you're underestimating the importance of "how quick" SIVB can get "100% recovery on deposits" when you call my conclusion not correct.  Some startups went from millions in cash to $250k (FDIC), and have days or weeks before collapse.  One of several choices is to be acquired by a private equity firm, and if you think zero startups will do that, I disagree.

When I said "Others will watch ... these startups", my intent was "some other startups ... of these two groups of some startups", in case the disagreement was over my wording.

UPDATE: "how quickly" may be days:

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Still, the FDIC’s statement on Friday didn’t indicate a likely quick sale of the whole firm. The regulator said it would issue an advance dividend to uninsured depositors within the next week with future payments perhaps coming as asset sales occurred.
https://fortune.com/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-businesses-auction-attractive-client-base-tech-firms-wealthy-founders/
« Last Edit: March 11, 2023, 11:31:48 PM by MustacheAndaHalf »

FINate

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #59 on: March 11, 2023, 03:41:04 PM »
And... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-failure-has-investors-calling-for-government-aid.html

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Venture capitalist and former tech CEO David Sacks called for the federal government to push another bank to buy SVB’s assets, writing on Twitter, “Where is Powell? Where is Yellen? Stop this crisis NOW. Announce that all depositors will be safe. Place SVB with a Top 4 bank. Do this before Monday open or there will be contagion and the crisis will spread.”

Quote
Observers are calling out the irony as some VCs with notoriously libertarian free-market attitudes are are now calling for a bailout. For instance, reactions to Sacks’ tweet included statements like “Excuse me, sir. Suddenly the government is the answer?!?” and “We capitalists want socialism!”

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #60 on: March 11, 2023, 03:53:06 PM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2023, 03:55:04 PM by gary3411 »

FINate

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #61 on: March 11, 2023, 04:36:14 PM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Except that this doesn't seem to be a general mid-size bank issue, but rather a single bank concentrated in a single industry that made a bad interest rate bet on long term bonds.

FINate

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #62 on: March 11, 2023, 04:42:01 PM »
Now the crypto bros are hinting at a bailout: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/03/11/usdc-stablecoin-and-crypto-market-go-haywire-after-silicon-valley-bank-collapses/

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There's echoes of the 2008 global financial crisis, when bad news kept getting followed up by even worse news. Though in the case of crypto, which lacks a central bank like the Federal Reserve that can bail out the industry, the question lingers: How will it end?

Quote
Crypto was born in the aftermath of – and, to some, in response to – the 2008 crisis. Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin paper debuted into a world where governments had just propped up the financial system by pouring money into it. Crypto lacks such a centralized authority. If SVB customers, including Circle and its USDC stablecoin, are forced to take a haircut on their money, the repercussions are unclear.
So who, if anyone, will step in?

If crypto requires outside intervention isn't this essentially admitting it's failed as a de-centralized monetary system?

Quote
When Razer CEO Min-Liang Tan tweeted late Friday that Twitter should buy SVB and turn into a digital bank, billionaire Elon Musk tweeted in reply, "I'm open to the idea."

LOL can't make this stuff up. Maybe we can merge this thread with the Twitter thread.

iluvzbeach

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #63 on: March 11, 2023, 05:15:06 PM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Yes, it would be so bad. Local financial institutions are the backbone of their communities and helping those smaller communities thrive. When you deposit with a local bank or credit union, those funds are used to lend to businesses & individuals in those communities. When you deposit at one of the big four FIs, who the heck knows where they are lending those funds? I want deposits in my local area supporting my area, not some business or individual clear across the country.

LateStarter1

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #64 on: March 11, 2023, 09:55:12 PM »
@JupiterGreen There will be many questions about what / why the regulators did what they did.   Lots of lessons will be learned in hindsight on this. 

The company was known to be insolvent back in November.  It wasn't a secret, but people (including myself) thought they were just being given time to work out of the hole.   Mathematically the security value recovers if held to maturity and the solvency problem is resolved.

The VCs decided to do a bank run on their own company on Wednesday / Thursday, voiding the thought above.

Yeah. Not 100% sure how all this works on the finance side. I do know we are pretty much solely funded through venture capital series funding. Will be interesting (and scary) to see how all this plays out.

Luckily, very much thanks to this forum, we live pretty dang frugal and we are pretty well off on just my wife's income. Hope we do not have to go that route though. Would definitely put a damper on the retirement timeline. Life I guess, though.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #65 on: March 11, 2023, 11:35:54 PM »
The company was known to be insolvent back in November.  It wasn't a secret, but people (including myself) thought they were just being given time to work out of the hole.   Mathematically the security value recovers if held to maturity and the solvency problem is resolved.

The VCs decided to do a bank run on their own company on Wednesday / Thursday, voiding the thought above.
Yeah. Not 100% sure how all this works on the finance side. I do know we are pretty much solely funded through venture capital series funding. Will be interesting (and scary) to see how all this plays out.
If days from now the FDIC distributes millions to each account holder, that could go a long way towards relieving the distress.  It also turns out 2022 was the second highest year of fund raising for venture capital firms, so they may be in a position to help (despite their own losses at SVB).
https://www.ey.com/en_us/growth/venture-capital/q4-2022-venture-capital-investment-trends

If that doesn't work, some hedge funds (presumably those who speculate in distressed debt) are already offering to buy SVB assets at a discount.

Quote
Bids range from 60 to 80 cents on the dollar, the report said adding that the range reflects expectations for how much of the uninsured deposits will be eventually recovered once the bank's assets are sold or wound down.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hedge-funds-offering-buy-startup-deposits-stuck-silicon-valley-bank-semafor-2023-03-11/

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #66 on: March 11, 2023, 11:45:24 PM »
Excuse my cross post, but it looks like the FDIC is moving extremely quickly on a portion of SVB customer assets.

"March 11 (Reuters) - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which is overseeing the emergency breakup of SVB Financial Group (SIVB.O), is racing to sell assets and make a portion of clients' uninsured deposits available as soon as Monday, Bloomberg News reported on Saturday, citing people with knowledge of the situation."
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fdic-racing-start-returning-some-uninsured-svb-deposits-soon-monday-bloomberg-2023-03-12/

dang1

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #67 on: March 12, 2023, 12:12:41 AM »
maybe another needed to be added to tech founder skills set: banking due diligence

chasesfish

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #68 on: March 12, 2023, 06:12:27 AM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

As a former banker, I kind of agree with this.

I'm invested in two community banks and BofA.   I think the messy middle is anywhere between the 50 branch community bank and the top 10 banks in the country.   I worked for a large regional for seventeen years, so much economic waste goes on when 170 different banks decide to compete for business in Dallas-Fort Worth.

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #69 on: March 12, 2023, 09:33:47 AM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Except that this doesn't seem to be a general mid-size bank issue, but rather a single bank concentrated in a single industry that made a bad interest rate bet on long term bonds.

Are you saying other mid-size banks could survive if even say half their uninsured depositors decided to leave?

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #70 on: March 12, 2023, 09:35:11 AM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Yes, it would be so bad. Local financial institutions are the backbone of their communities and helping those smaller communities thrive. When you deposit with a local bank or credit union, those funds are used to lend to businesses & individuals in those communities. When you deposit at one of the big four FIs, who the heck knows where they are lending those funds? I want deposits in my local area supporting my area, not some business or individual clear across the country.

I said keep credit unions. Just not for-profit small banks. I think Canada operates in a similar fashion, just the big boys.

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #71 on: March 12, 2023, 09:40:23 AM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

As a former banker, I kind of agree with this.

I'm invested in two community banks and BofA.   I think the messy middle is anywhere between the 50 branch community bank and the top 10 banks in the country.   I worked for a large regional for seventeen years, so much economic waste goes on when 170 different banks decide to compete for business in Dallas-Fort Worth.

In addition to the "economic waste" you speak of, I imagine the few firms that win that business will probably be those taking the most risk (as they can offer the most interest or other perks, profitably) that they can within the law. And sometimes the law is murky. Until of course, they collapse due to unforeseen circumstances, and their excess risk.

FINate

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #72 on: March 12, 2023, 09:45:36 AM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Except that this doesn't seem to be a general mid-size bank issue, but rather a single bank concentrated in a single industry that made a bad interest rate bet on long term bonds.

Are you saying other mid-size banks could survive if even say half their uninsured depositors decided to leave?

SVB had an unusually high percentage of uninsured deposits. No one worries about insured deposits. Most mid-size banks have a better mix of the two, so they can better handle a lower demand for withdrawals. And what would be the catalyst for this demand? If deposits aren't backed by long duration low interest bonds (as at SVB) then the security of deposits shouldn't be in question.

Whatever happens, I bet there will be a move by corps to diversify deposits across several banks just to ensure operations are not disrupted if there's a problem with one.

JupiterGreen

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #73 on: March 12, 2023, 12:06:50 PM »
I've been reading about this all week. It's terrible. I feel especially bad for all the people at the end of the line, the workers whose paychecks will be delayed (or who just won't get paid).

There have been a number of articles on how the last Administration's rollback of Dodd Frank may have come into play here. I haven't see anyone comment on that in this thread yet.

"In 2015, SVB President Greg Becker submitted a statement to a Senate panel pushing legislators to exempt more banks — including his own — from new regulations passed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Despite warnings from some senators, Becker’s lobbying effort was ultimately successful."

And their desire to ease restrictions with financial regulatory reform was successful with the last Administration:

"The measure eases restrictions on all but the largest banks. It raises the threshold to $250 billion from $50 billion under which banks are deemed too important to the financial system to fail. Those institutions also would not have to undergo stress tests or submit so-called living wills, both safety valves designed to plan for financial disaster. It eases mortgage loan data reporting requirements for the overwhelming majority of banks. It would add some safeguards for student loan borrowers and also require credit reporting companies to provide free credit monitoring services."

And so

"In 2021, SVB passed the threshold of $100 billion under management, triggering some additional scrutiny as a Category IV bank but remaining exempt from the more frequent and detailed analyses that regulators perform to determine whether banks above $250 billion of assets have sufficient capital to withstand a crisis."

Makes me furious.  Another set of serious consequences for individuals and taxpayers thanks to corporate greed and the politicians they own. 
And we're not even done dealing with the Norfolk Southern disaster and the financial and environmental fallout from that. 

A handful of people can make life hell for millions and then walk away with no punishment whatsoever.

I'm sorry, but our current banking requirements and capital controls are as sophisticated and conservative as the United States has ever seen. There used to be hundreds of bank runs PER YEAR. Also, train derailments are incredibly low compared to what they used to be. Why are you mad? Do intend to live in a world with ZERO risk of anything bad happening of any kind? Boy I sure don't. Because without risk, there can be no return. Return in this case can be considered life as we know it.

Interesting, I'd like to hear more of your take on this. In my research I did not find there were hundreds of bank runs per year in the US (unless you are talking about 1929 and before modern regulations). Of course there was 2008 and last week, where are you seeing 100s of bank runs in the US?

It's not my area of expertise, so I'm interested in learning more. I did some light research. I don't know about the US banking requirements (I'm assuming you mean regulations since that's what I was posting about) being the most conservative it has ever been. It doesn't seem right to compare very different time periods to one another (specifically pre FDIC with post) for a number of reasons. When examining the history it looks like deregulation was followed by some sort of crash or financial crisis. Maybe they are not connected, but here is a timeline I found from Investopedia:

- Pre 1863-1865, The free banking era, characterized as it was by a complete lack of federal control and regulation, ended with the National Banking Act of 1863 (and its later revisions in 1864 and 1865), which aimed to replace the old state banks with nationally chartered ones.

-1913 Federal Reserve Act

-1929 stock market collapse

- 1933, FDR as part of his administration's New Deal. The Glass-Steagall Act created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)

(This is where I would start evaluating US regulation, because I see it as the beginning of our current system)

-1980, (deregulation) Congress passed the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act

-1980-1989, Savings and Loan Crisis

-1994, (deregulation) Restrictions on the opening of bank branches in different states that had been in place since the McFadden Act of 1927 were removed under the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act

-1999, (deregulation) The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 repealed significant aspects of the Glass-Steagall Act as well as the Bank Holding Act of 1956, both of which had served to sever investment banking and insurance services from commercial banking.

2007-2008, financial crisis and bank run

-2010, (regulation) Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act

-2018, (deregulation) some of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act regulations were rolled back

-2021, by executive order, (regulation) on promoting competition in the American economy called for greater scrutiny of bank mergers by the Department of Justice and federal banking regulators.

-2022 SVB bank run

From this timeline, it seems like there has been more de-regulation that regulation in modern times, so it might be sophisticated but I wouldn't characterize that as conservative. I'm sure I'm missing some important items. I'm not saying that loosening Dodd-Frank solely caused the SVB crisis, I don't have enough info to make that claim. But I brought it into this thread for discussion and I am interested in learning more about the topic.

chasesfish

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #74 on: March 12, 2023, 12:17:59 PM »
One regulatory comment...

Banks currently answer to the FDIC, OCC, Federal Reserve, and state regulator based on where they're housed.

The two biggest misses on this are more of internal policy issues that will be revisited.

 - Uninsured deposits will be tested more as "hot money" that can be liquidated quicker.  The digital age just allows money to be moved faster.   Now they realize a high percentage of uninsured deposits created a risk.

- We'll get more scrutiny on these  banks that are just glorified bond funds.   Banks shouldn't have half or more of their assets in marketable securities and will be told to stop growing their deposits.  That just goes against the purpose of banking, which is to take idle capital and lend it out on a loan by loan basis to borrowers.  It's not just SVB here, plenty of "hometown community banks" are just terrible at lending and gather up deposits and become an FDIC insured bond fund for the benefit of the bankers.  See $FFIN for example.

iluvzbeach

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #75 on: March 12, 2023, 01:24:05 PM »
@chasesfish, I noticed you mentioned FFIN in your blogpost and again in the comment above. Are you familiar with FFIN or is it just through your research that they come up?

BNgarden

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #76 on: March 12, 2023, 01:50:09 PM »
... There used to be hundreds of bank runs PER YEAR. Also, train derailments are incredibly low compared to what they used to be. ...

Interesting, I'd like to hear more of your take on this. In my research I did not find there were hundreds of bank runs per year in the US (unless you are talking about 1929 and before modern regulations). ...

Just came across this image in a twitter feed, and it addresses bank failures, not bank runs, but I was surprised at the number (but then I'm Cdn., don't follow US banking news much, but do know that the rules / types of banks are different).

Source: https://twitter.com/heydavidlee/status/1634537665243512834

ender

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #77 on: March 12, 2023, 02:01:08 PM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Except that this doesn't seem to be a general mid-size bank issue, but rather a single bank concentrated in a single industry that made a bad interest rate bet on long term bonds.

The thing you are missing is this only manifested itself into a real issue when people withdrew 20% of the entire 200B in assets in a single day.

I suspect almost every single bank would run into liquidity issues in that situation.

What happened with SVB effectively was a coordinated bank run where people worried about solvency turned into a self fulfilling prophecy by telling everyone to withdraw ASAP.

dang1

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #78 on: March 12, 2023, 02:08:56 PM »
"Ari Ozick @ariozick
Have more then $250k in cash? Do this to keep it 100% safe:
1. Sign up for a service like @IntraFi or @maxmyinterest They'll spread your cash around in 250k chunks across FDIC insured bank accounts.  (For businesses maxmyinterest says they can do up to $100mil in fdic insured deposits, fyi @Roku)
2. Ask your bank/broker about similar services.  For example, ibrkr offers fdic sweep on up to 2.5 mil.
3. Hold short term tbills in a brokerage. SEC customer protection rule 15c3-3 means these assets are yours.
4. Hold cash in a brokerage. SIPC covers 500k.
5. Leverage FDIC rules to your advantage.  It's one account type  per depositor per bank. So you can have 250, your spouse can have 250, and then your joint account is covered to 500.
9:41 AM · Mar 11, 2023" https://twitter.com/ariozick/status/1634610518227861505

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #79 on: March 12, 2023, 02:24:48 PM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Except that this doesn't seem to be a general mid-size bank issue, but rather a single bank concentrated in a single industry that made a bad interest rate bet on long term bonds.

The thing you are missing is this only manifested itself into a real issue when people withdrew 20% of the entire 200B in assets in a single day.

I suspect almost every single bank would run into liquidity issues in that situation.

What happened with SVB effectively was a coordinated bank run where people worried about solvency turned into a self fulfilling prophecy by telling everyone to withdraw ASAP.

Right. And unless the laws change, I don't see how many small or medium sized banks can be considered a viable business at this moment, unless 90%+ of their deposits are FDIC insured.

ender

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #80 on: March 12, 2023, 04:11:58 PM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Except that this doesn't seem to be a general mid-size bank issue, but rather a single bank concentrated in a single industry that made a bad interest rate bet on long term bonds.

The thing you are missing is this only manifested itself into a real issue when people withdrew 20% of the entire 200B in assets in a single day.

I suspect almost every single bank would run into liquidity issues in that situation.

What happened with SVB effectively was a coordinated bank run where people worried about solvency turned into a self fulfilling prophecy by telling everyone to withdraw ASAP.

Right. And unless the laws change, I don't see how many small or medium sized banks can be considered a viable business at this moment, unless 90%+ of their deposits are FDIC insured.

It's not just small/medium sized banks in this situation. SVB was not a small bank. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/ has a good list of total assets - SVB was 16th end of last year.

However, our banking system is not built on the assumption a bank has to be able to provide liquidity at 20%+ of its total assets within a short period of time (in SVB's case, ~1 day).


Or do you think that Chase could come up with $640B on Monday if folks did a bank run against Chase?

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #81 on: March 12, 2023, 04:27:17 PM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Except that this doesn't seem to be a general mid-size bank issue, but rather a single bank concentrated in a single industry that made a bad interest rate bet on long term bonds.

The thing you are missing is this only manifested itself into a real issue when people withdrew 20% of the entire 200B in assets in a single day.

I suspect almost every single bank would run into liquidity issues in that situation.

What happened with SVB effectively was a coordinated bank run where people worried about solvency turned into a self fulfilling prophecy by telling everyone to withdraw ASAP.

Right. And unless the laws change, I don't see how many small or medium sized banks can be considered a viable business at this moment, unless 90%+ of their deposits are FDIC insured.

It's not just small/medium sized banks in this situation. SVB was not a small bank. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/ has a good list of total assets - SVB was 16th end of last year.

However, our banking system is not built on the assumption a bank has to be able to provide liquidity at 20%+ of its total assets within a short period of time (in SVB's case, ~1 day).


Or do you think that Chase could come up with $640B on Monday if folks did a bank run against Chase?

I think they probably could, ya.

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #82 on: March 12, 2023, 04:30:12 PM »
Another bank just went down, Signature Bank has been taken over by the state of New York.

Also, joint Govt agencies have essentially announced they are backstopping all bank deposits at all banks until further notice. This should end the runs for the most part.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #83 on: March 12, 2023, 04:41:01 PM »
This whole thing has got me wondering. Maybe the mid-size bank is simply not a viable business in the modern world.

Unless FDIC rules are changed, there is really nothing from stopping this from happening again, and again. Especially once folks become relaxed and forget about the last one. Either these banks are going to be regulated to death, or deposit holders will only trust the largest couple. Either way, same outcome:

Would it be so bad to have a mix of credit unions, big 5-6 banks, brokerage firms, and some fintech non-banks? IDK the answer to that, but it seems like we could all still live a prosperous life in that scenario.

Except that this doesn't seem to be a general mid-size bank issue, but rather a single bank concentrated in a single industry that made a bad interest rate bet on long term bonds.

The thing you are missing is this only manifested itself into a real issue when people withdrew 20% of the entire 200B in assets in a single day.

I suspect almost every single bank would run into liquidity issues in that situation.

What happened with SVB effectively was a coordinated bank run where people worried about solvency turned into a self fulfilling prophecy by telling everyone to withdraw ASAP.

Right. And unless the laws change, I don't see how many small or medium sized banks can be considered a viable business at this moment, unless 90%+ of their deposits are FDIC insured.

It's not just small/medium sized banks in this situation. SVB was not a small bank. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/ has a good list of total assets - SVB was 16th end of last year.

However, our banking system is not built on the assumption a bank has to be able to provide liquidity at 20%+ of its total assets within a short period of time (in SVB's case, ~1 day).


Or do you think that Chase could come up with $640B on Monday if folks did a bank run against Chase?

I think they probably could, ya.

According to their balance sheet as of 12/31/2022 they had about 24% of assets in cash and cash equivalents or $567 Billion in cash and $315 Billion in money market accounts. So it looks like they could.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/balance-sheet?p=JPM

Silicon Valley Bank on the other hand only had 6.5% of assets in cash and cash equivalents or $13 Billion in cash and $1 Billion in money market accounts.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SIVB/balance-sheet?p=SIVB

Looking at some other large national banks they had between 8-30% of assets in cash and cash equivalents. So SIVB was on the low end, but not by a crazy amount. A regional bank I have an account with for one of my businesses only has about 5% of assets in cash and cash equivalents.

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #84 on: March 12, 2023, 04:47:42 PM »
Looks like the Fed has set up a facility that essentially will give a loan to any bank if they need it to pay for deposit withdrawals. In place for the next full year. Wow. They seem to think things were about to unravel, because that is a huge step.

maizefolk

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #85 on: March 12, 2023, 04:51:54 PM »
Wow. FDIC sure seems to be taking the risk of contagion seriously if they are bailing out the uninsured deposits. I am trying to find more on Signature Bank’s situation or why they might have also been particularly vulnerable to a bank run. Does anyone have particular insight?

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #86 on: March 12, 2023, 05:01:25 PM »
Wow. FDIC sure seems to be taking the risk of contagion seriously if they are bailing out the uninsured deposits. I am trying to find more on Signature Bank’s situation or why they might have also been particularly vulnerable to a bank run. Does anyone have particular insight?

Same general issues as SVB, just to a lesser extent, hence why they were second, and not first. If Yellen, FDIC, and Fed didn't come out just now and basically guarantee every dollar of every eposit in the country, there would have been more.

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #87 on: March 12, 2023, 05:37:44 PM »
No need to pay attention to your 250k limits anymore. Hunt for the highest yield and put it all there.

This must have some unintended consequences. What will they be?

ender

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #88 on: March 12, 2023, 05:54:09 PM »
Wow. FDIC sure seems to be taking the risk of contagion seriously if they are bailing out the uninsured deposits. I am trying to find more on Signature Bank’s situation or why they might have also been particularly vulnerable to a bank run. Does anyone have particular insight?

They were because a lot of tech investors/companies had a lot of company funds there plus spread the "bail out of SVB now!" news like wildfire.


According to their balance sheet as of 12/31/2022 they had about 24% of assets in cash and cash equivalents or $567 Billion in cash and $315 Billion in money market accounts. So it looks like they could.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/balance-sheet?p=JPM

Silicon Valley Bank on the other hand only had 6.5% of assets in cash and cash equivalents or $13 Billion in cash and $1 Billion in money market accounts.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SIVB/balance-sheet?p=SIVB

Looking at some other large national banks they had between 8-30% of assets in cash and cash equivalents. So SIVB was on the low end, but not by a crazy amount. A regional bank I have an account with for one of my businesses only has about 5% of assets in cash and cash equivalents.

Ah, funny. Looks like Wells Fargo would have been screwed too (~13% cash/cash equivalents) as would Bank of America. But Chase/Citibank could have covered 20%.

Also keep in mind this run only hit 20% because at that point, SVB ran out of liquidity. Folks would likely have withdrawn meaningfully more than 20% if it could have happened.

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #89 on: March 12, 2023, 06:43:09 PM »
Interesting take from fellow on bogleheads:

 "And not because of the relatively meaningless debate about what's a 'bailout', but because the future moral hazard created by extending deposit insurance coverage after the fact of bank failures doesn't directly depend on who is paying (as in other banks' shareholders v taxpayers). The problem is incentivizing CFO's to pay even less attention to the risk profile of banks where they deposit the company's money (which seems like must have partly at work here, or just 'start up' CFO's who are tech people with no financial background?). Small retail depositors already have no real reason to scrutinize bank risk taking. If no depositors have that incentive, it's *all* on regulators and that often doesn't end well."

It seems depositors do in fact hold an important *check on the system.

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #90 on: March 12, 2023, 06:52:07 PM »
So if I'm running a bank now. It seems the best business model would be to take as much risk and score as much profits as possible, try not to be detected by regulators, and as long as you are not the first to go belly up, you are golden. From a shareholder perspective, that is probably worth the risk. What are the chances of being first one to go bust? Rather small. You no longer have uninsured depositors looking over your shoulder with the threat of a run if you start acting irresponsibly (in a sophisticated way that a regulator may not be able to pick up on).

maizefolk

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #91 on: March 12, 2023, 07:13:00 PM »
So if I'm running a bank now. It seems the best business model would be to take as much risk and score as much profits as possible, try not to be detected by regulators, and as long as you are not the first to go belly up, you are golden. From a shareholder perspective, that is probably worth the risk. What are the chances of being first one to go bust? Rather small. You no longer have uninsured depositors looking over your shoulder with the threat of a run if you start acting irresponsibly (in a sophisticated way that a regulator may not be able to pick up on).

I think that may be modestly overstating the case. It definitely shifts the risk reward equation for banking executives in favor of more risk than the previous equilibrium. However, if you are running a bank, take on too much risk and go bust, your shareholders (the people who, at least in principle, elect the board that hires and fires you) are going to be wiped out.

The optimal amount of risk a shareholder is going to want a CEO to take on to increase expected return is going to be greater than the optimal amount of risk a depositor at the same bank is comfortable with. But even for shareholders the answer isn't going to be "as much risk as possible."

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #92 on: March 12, 2023, 07:23:13 PM »
So if I'm running a bank now. It seems the best business model would be to take as much risk and score as much profits as possible, try not to be detected by regulators, and as long as you are not the first to go belly up, you are golden. From a shareholder perspective, that is probably worth the risk. What are the chances of being first one to go bust? Rather small. You no longer have uninsured depositors looking over your shoulder with the threat of a run if you start acting irresponsibly (in a sophisticated way that a regulator may not be able to pick up on).

I think that may be modestly overstating the case. It definitely shifts the risk reward equation for banking executives in favor of more risk than the previous equilibrium. However, if you are running a bank, take on too much risk and go bust, your shareholders (the people who, at least in principle, elect the board that hires and fires you) are going to be wiped out.

The optimal amount of risk a shareholder is going to want a CEO to take on to increase expected return is going to be greater than the optimal amount of risk a depositor at the same bank is comfortable with. But even for shareholders the answer isn't going to be "as much risk as possible."

You're right, I was exaggerating to highlight the point.

But I still stand by the fact that as long as you're not the first to go bust, it is now reasonable to assume the Fed is ready to extend credit lines to any banks once one goes bust. Now or in the future.

NaN

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #93 on: March 12, 2023, 08:03:15 PM »
Another bank goes under (Signature Bank in NY). The Fed and Treasury claim deposits in SVB and Signature will be made whole. (I guess the FDIC limit is now unlimited). Federal Republic had to secure a bunch of funding to avoid their collapse (for now).

I have been on the fence whether tomorrow is a day to remember, but the sudden shift from Tr Dept means there is some serious fear. Things might just do a head-stand tomorrow.

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #94 on: March 12, 2023, 08:06:48 PM »
Is this the first official shareholder "bailout"? I guess I don't quite get what this is. Just a free loan?

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230312005055/en/First-Republic-Bank-Strengthens-and-Diversifies-Liquidity

Sibley

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #95 on: March 12, 2023, 08:20:46 PM »
With the two banks that have gone under now, are there any other banks that have similar characteristics or red flags?

Edit: and yes, I'm aware that the Feds have essentially guaranteed all deposits, trying to get people to calm down and not do runs on the bank. I'm still curious if there's other banks we should watch.

It is hilarious that my parents and I are going to the bank tomorrow to rearrange their accounts, been planned since before SVB went down. Great timing /s
« Last Edit: March 12, 2023, 08:36:00 PM by Sibley »

gary3411

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #96 on: March 12, 2023, 08:34:21 PM »
With the two banks that have gone under now, are there any other banks that have similar characteristics or red flags?

Ya First Republic. The Fed just gave them $70BILLION to stay afloat tonight.

Sibley

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #97 on: March 12, 2023, 08:37:53 PM »
With the two banks that have gone under now, are there any other banks that have similar characteristics or red flags?

Ya First Republic. The Fed just gave them $70BILLION to stay afloat tonight.

A bunch of my governmental audit clients use First Republic bank. That would be hilarious. However, yay, I can use this as leverage to explain to some of my less intelligent clients why they should have collateralization agreements in place.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #98 on: March 12, 2023, 08:44:14 PM »
Looks like bank accounts at SVB are now backed by the US Treasury.  Investors in the public stock and bonds of SVB likely hold worthless investments.

Quote
WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) - New policies adopted on Sunday by U.S. banking regulators will "wipe out" equity and bondholders in Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) of New York while protecting all customer deposits, a senior U.S. Treasury official said.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-treasury-says-silicon-valley-bank-signature-bank-not-being-bailed-out-2023-03-13/

chasesfish

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Re: SVB goes under
« Reply #99 on: March 13, 2023, 05:59:11 AM »
@chasesfish, I noticed you mentioned FFIN in your blogpost and again in the comment above. Are you familiar with FFIN or is it just through your research that they come up?

I used to work in banking in Texas.

Those guys would be celebrated as this prenominal bank, but they were mostly a bond fund masquerading as a bank.   They accepted a bunch of zero interest rate deposits and invested them in bonds instead of making loans. 

They aren't hiding their issues like SVB was, but I don't get how a bank with a $6/share tangible book value trades at $33/share.  Their deposit franchise is valuable, but it's more like an $6 - $8/share stock.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!