Author Topic: stock ideas  (Read 35122 times)

AlexK

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stock ideas
« on: January 08, 2013, 09:55:43 AM »
Stock ideas for those that like to invest in individual stocks. Please don't bust my balls too much about efficient markets, index funds, etc. Please share what stocks you are interested in right now.

AAPL  With P/E<12 right now, isn't this the definition of buying a good company at a good price? I am long AAPL

HFC  Oil refiner. P/E<6 and pretty good profit margin, debt to income, and cash flow. No position yet.

SPRS  Electrical Components. Penny stock, before you laugh they have no debt, profitable, and P/E=2. A bit risky, I have only a small position.

SB  Ship owner. This one has been talked about here before. I still like it. One of the stronger shipping companies along with Diana Shipping.


cbr shadow

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2013, 10:42:45 AM »
Hey I dont blame you for wanting play around with individual stocks.  I posted SB on here a few weeks ago and was discouraged in purchasing.  I ended up taking a gamble and putting $2,000 (all of my 'hobby budget' that I've saved for almost 2 years) towards their stocks right as the fiscal cliff happened.  That's $2,000 at $3.27/share, or 611 shares.  Today it's hovering around $4.00 or $2446 value.  Not bad!
Obviously though, like everyone warned, this was a gamble.  Next big financial crisis (debt ceiling?) I'll do something simliar.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2013, 10:46:14 AM »
Stock ideas for those that like to invest in individual stocks. Please don't bust my balls too much about efficient markets, index funds, etc. Please share what stocks you are interested in right now.

AAPL  With P/E<12 right now, isn't this the definition of buying a good company at a good price? I am long AAPL

HFC  Oil refiner. P/E<6 and pretty good profit margin, debt to income, and cash flow. No position yet.

SPRS  Electrical Components. Penny stock, before you laugh they have no debt, profitable, and P/E=2. A bit risky, I have only a small position.

SB  Ship owner. This one has been talked about here before. I still like it. One of the stronger shipping companies along with Diana Shipping.

RIMM.  New OS at end of month, potential $1.50 in 2013 earnings, could see $30 by the end of the year (potential takeover candidate).  I've owned it, sold it, and recently bought and sold it again.  Hoping it revisits it's recent low (10.60) before buying again. 

Don't like APPL, see 20% downside from current levels. 




gecko10x

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2013, 10:52:36 AM »
RIMM.  New OS at end of month, potential $1.50 in 2013 earnings, could see $30 by the end of the year (potential takeover candidate).  I've owned it, sold it, and recently bought and sold it again.  Hoping it revisits it's recent low (10.60) before buying again. 

Don't like APPL, see 20% downside from current levels.

I'm not sure that RIMM will exist a year from now, but see plenty of upside for AAPL at this level.

And that's what makes a market ;-)

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2013, 10:56:13 AM »
RIMM.  New OS at end of month, potential $1.50 in 2013 earnings, could see $30 by the end of the year (potential takeover candidate).  I've owned it, sold it, and recently bought and sold it again.  Hoping it revisits it's recent low (10.60) before buying again. 

Don't like APPL, see 20% downside from current levels.

I'm not sure that RIMM will exist a year from now, but see plenty of upside for AAPL at this level.

And that's what makes a market ;-)

Exactly. 

And I agree, RIMM won't exist a year from now -- Microsoft will own them!

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2013, 11:01:45 AM »
Gentlemen, still not sure if the bounce in shippers is of the "dead cat, January effect" variety, or the beginning of a powerful move higher.  I want to say it's a peripheral move driven by hopes that the Chinese economy if finally comming around (I've been playing this turnaround via a bunch of CAF I purchased in October, which I just sold last Friday).  Indeed, these hopes seem justified (even if the recent advance in the Chinese stock market is overdone right here and now), which could light a serious fire under the shippers.  I'm very intrigued by this sector and have put it on my investment radar.

Thanks!
« Last Edit: January 08, 2013, 11:03:41 AM by smedleyb »

Jack

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2013, 01:47:01 PM »
I don't plan on buying individual stock in the near future -- my gambling budget will go for either P2P lending or real estate -- but I wouldn't buy Apple or RIM right now. The former seems inflated despite the PE ratio (it may be good, but there's so much hype that it's got to be built into the price), and the latter is headed for liquidation.

fiveoh

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2013, 08:08:28 PM »
I agree on apple.   I already bought some at 520ish late last year.  If it goes into the 470-480 range I might pick up a few more shares.   I think a lot of the drop might have been related to end of the year profit taking.  We will see when the earnings are reported what the real story is. 

Khan

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2013, 08:43:02 PM »
I'm interested in Nokia over the next 2 quarters. I've locked in some gains in the face of the January(24th) earnings report as I think even though it'll be good, it won't be enough to drive the share price up and some people will sell on it. I plan on picking some of it back up because I really think I want to be in on it more prior to the April report(and a full quarter of Lumia/Asha sales around the world). In the event that the stock doesn't go down off the earnings and instead goes up, well it's a high class problem to not gain as much off of a stock as you could have.

I'm very interested long term in the stock price of Intel. I don't worry about the price action over the next half of the year, that's what DRIP is for(and at 4 1/2% yield, seriously not gonna lose sleep over it), but I wonder what will happen at the end of 2013/2014 when they release their new atom architectures to compete with ARM, especially considering the current performance comparisons.

I want to add a position in a couple dividend stocks, such as NNN(Reit), SNA(Snap-On tools), as well as a position in Under Armor. Also I'd like to add international ETF exposure.

I'd like to see how the story of Ford changes over the next 3-6 months. I'm unsure as to my long term feelings on it. On the one hand, dividends. On the other, capital gains I could lock in and diversify further with.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2013, 07:50:16 AM »
I'm interested in Nokia over the next 2 quarters.

NOK popping 18% this morning.

Did you mean "next 2 quarters," or "next 2 days?" lol!

Call of the month right here folks.

Rangifer

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2013, 01:55:55 PM »
DDD anyone? High risk, but high-reward potential.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2013, 03:44:59 PM »
DDD anyone? High risk, but high-reward potential.

Up 400% in the past year.  I think the bulk of reward has already been had.

22% of the float is being shorted.  Looks like a gigantic short squeeze, IMO.

Buyer beware.

Khan

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2013, 05:25:36 PM »
I'm interested in Nokia over the next 2 quarters.

NOK popping 18% this morning.

Did you mean "next 2 quarters," or "next 2 days?" lol!

Call of the month right here folks.

Heh, well I didn't(and nobody did) forecast that pop, today. I thought there was a 50/50 chance of either a pop or a slump off of the actual earnings report on the 24th. Some institutional buyer was buying today(Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been buying since last year), 294 million shares traded from a 50 million share norm, and I think some shorts came in the two days prior that had to cover, on top of the shorts that are already in on it. With the pop but the currently expected Q4 2012 results reported on the 24th, I'm not sure what to do. My margin is closed out(with a 10k gain off of it), which makes my current 2500 shares of Nokia free. I don't know if I had money available right now if I would buy in or not. I'm not sure if I even want the 2500 shares or to cash out completely.

Bottom line: I'm content right now to sit on the shares I have, but I'd do some heavy research if you're thinking about buying in at these levels, I don't know if it's going to slowly rise from here or slump, but I'm happy to sit on what I have till the Q1 report comes out in April. If it goes <4.00 then I'll buy again. If it just sits at ~4.25 for weeks in Q1 and doesn't keep sliding down, then I'll buy a little more. I'm extremely interested in it for the turnaround story, but I don't care to be in it nearly as much after everyone agrees that it has in fact turned around.

Things I see going for the stock: Lumia sales and partnerships with carriers, Asha sales(smartphone style featurephone in the emerging market), restructuring gains, support from Microsoft and WP8 itself

Things I don't care about(and reasons as I said before I don't care about it after the everyone agrees it's turned around): A possible tablet in the works expected to be unveiled in Q1

Negatives: Lumia supply, actual supply/demand intersection point if fully supplied.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2013, 12:10:20 PM »
RIMM exploding higher today, up 12% -- on an analyst downgrade, no less.  Very telling (as in bullish).

Captain, full steam ahead!

fiveoh

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2013, 12:38:44 PM »
RIMM exploding higher today, up 12% -- on an analyst downgrade, no less.  Very telling (as in bullish).

Captain, full steam ahead!

I wouldn't touch RIMM... although they may get bought out eventually.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2013, 07:08:36 AM »
Apple bulls, prepare to see a 4 handle on the tech gadget behemoth today for the first time in months.  The only question is IMO is how low in the 4's will it go?

edit:  that said, APPL is a very tempting long in the short term at these levels, especially if it can hold the $500 level.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2013, 07:46:30 AM by smedleyb »

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2013, 07:52:36 AM »
RIMM exploding higher today, up 12% -- on an analyst downgrade, no less.  Very telling (as in bullish).

Captain, full steam ahead!

Up another 12% today.  Why was I waiting for a pullback again?

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #17 on: January 15, 2013, 07:26:12 AM »
Is it me or is everyone and their mothers starring at the $500 level in AAPL?  As goes the behemoth from Cupertino, so goes the Naz.  As goes the Naz, so goes the market. 


tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #18 on: January 15, 2013, 08:20:55 AM »
Is it me or is everyone and their mothers starring at the $500 level in AAPL?  As goes the behemoth from Cupertino, so goes the Naz.  As goes the Naz, so goes the market. 



Sure seems that way - investors are struggling with being down almost 30% from the high but up 25% for the last 12 months. 

Setting aside waning innovation - a big thing to watch for that is now starting to crack is that Samsung buys for $1 and sells for $1.50 vs. Apple that buys for $1 and sells for $3. The first earnings report that shows big margin compression, watch out, Apple will get crushed. The first leg is lower sales - now - then margin compression as they work to maintain/increase market share.


smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #19 on: January 15, 2013, 08:33:23 AM »
Is it me or is everyone and their mothers starring at the $500 level in AAPL?  As goes the behemoth from Cupertino, so goes the Naz.  As goes the Naz, so goes the market. 



Sure seems that way - investors are struggling with being down almost 30% from the high but up 25% for the last 12 months. 

Setting aside waning innovation - a big thing to watch for that is now starting to crack is that Samsung buys for $1 and sells for $1.50 vs. Apple that buys for $1 and sells for $3. The first earnings report that shows big margin compression, watch out, Apple will get crushed. The first leg is lower sales - now - then margin compression as they work to maintain/increase market share.

I think the compression story has been gaining traction for a couple of months and is why the stock has been struggling even if it seems "cheap" on a P/E valuation basis.   

Technically, my eyes are drawn to that big gap at $420 from late January 2012 as far as where I think AAPL ends up.  But I wouldn't be shocked to see the entire parabolic move from late 2011 get revoked (which works to $380).

fiveoh

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #20 on: January 15, 2013, 01:09:34 PM »
AAPL will bottom @ or around this Friday and go up next week on earnings.  I'm too overweight tech or I would be buying some late this week.   

I've been known to be very wrong so we will see.  :)

Edit: If it goes below 460 before then I will probably pick some up anyway.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2013, 01:15:18 PM by fiveoh »

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #21 on: January 15, 2013, 01:17:40 PM »
AAPL will bottom @ or around this Friday and go up next week on earnings.  I'm too overweight tech or I would be buying some late this week.   

I've been known to be very wrong so we will see.  :)

Edit: If it goes below 460 before then I will probably pick some up anyway.

Perhaps "a" bottom, but I don't think "the" bottom.  We shall see.

The trader in me wants to buy AAPL right here and now for an upside swing, but alas, I'll be on vacation for the next week so I'll be doing nothing. 

AlexK

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #22 on: January 15, 2013, 01:30:35 PM »
AAPL is tanking with record profits and RIMM is shooting up while losing money. I know where my long term money will be.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #23 on: January 15, 2013, 05:25:54 PM »
Is it me or is everyone and their mothers starring at the $500 level in AAPL? As goes the behemoth from Cupertino, so goes the Naz.  As goes the Naz, so goes the market.

The fact that the market can shake off a 16 point drop in AAPL to finish basically flat was enough to convince me to abandon my week long short position in the QQQ's for a small loss.  I think the high for the year is close (up another 5% from here?) but we're not quite there yet (another 3-5 weeks perhaps?).   I almost switched gears completely and bought some AAPL near the close but I never pulled the trigger.  I think AAPL bulls will be proven right over the next several weeks but looking out to the end of the year I think the stock will struggle.   

Good luck to all!

AlexK

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #24 on: January 15, 2013, 08:02:17 PM »
Are any of you stock hounds timing stock trades down to weeks or less and successful? If so, with what % of your nest egg? I'm looking for decent priced stocks to hold for years to invest my monthly savings into.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #25 on: January 15, 2013, 11:29:12 PM »
Are any of you stock hounds timing stock trades down to weeks or less and successful? If so, with what % of your nest egg? I'm looking for decent priced stocks to hold for years to invest my monthly savings into.

If I were looking for long exposure and value over a multi-year time frame, I would be sniffing around the financial stocks for ideas.  The XLF is an interesting financial ETF to look at.  If we have indeed entered a new secular bull market -- and there's a small but significant chance we have -- then I think financial stocks will power the markets higher, as the banking index (BKX), which has already tripled off it's March 2009 low, remains a whopping 60% off it's all time high.  They got room to run to the upside.   


tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #26 on: January 16, 2013, 09:52:11 AM »
Are any of you stock hounds timing stock trades down to weeks or less and successful? If so, with what % of your nest egg? I'm looking for decent priced stocks to hold for years to invest my monthly savings into.

If I were looking for long exposure and value over a multi-year time frame, I would be sniffing around the financial stocks for ideas.  The XLF is an interesting financial ETF to look at.  If we have indeed entered a new secular bull market -- and there's a small but significant chance we have -- then I think financial stocks will power the markets higher, as the banking index (BKX), which has already tripled off it's March 2009 low, remains a whopping 60% off it's all time high.  They got room to run to the upside.

I like like the financials and agree there may be more to go but keep in mind that the rules of the game have changed dramatically - regulatory oversight and costs are significantly greater, net interest margins are terrible due to low demand and big Ben, and banks are required to keep double the capital than they were before, and back to the regulatory piece half the rules still haven't been written. 

But if the economy ramps up (who knows) the financial sector will benefit from it more than other sectors and WILL outperform the broader market.

Another Reader

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #27 on: January 16, 2013, 04:12:16 PM »
I have been looking at the Canadian banks.  Better dividends and none of the problems besetting US banks.  Any insights?

grantmeaname

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2013, 06:56:04 PM »
I have been looking at the Canadian banks.  Better dividends and none of the problems besetting US banks.  Any insights?
Canadian banks operate in a colder environment than US ones.

Another Reader

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2013, 07:49:59 PM »
Any real insights?

Khan

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #30 on: January 17, 2013, 02:29:12 AM »
I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm going to be paying close attention to Boeing's stock action following the 787 grounding. I've wanted to get into Boeing, but the yield for the dividend and price have kind've driven me away. If the shares take a decent tumble, I'll buy a nice chunk for my portfolio to keep.

tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #31 on: January 17, 2013, 08:32:32 AM »
I have been looking at the Canadian banks.  Better dividends and none of the problems besetting US banks.  Any insights?

The banking system in Canada is completely different than the one in the US - in Canada it is essentially an oligopoly. And while I agree that CAD banks didn't have the issues (or growth prior to that) I would be cautious because the CAD housing boom right now (especially in the urban areas) is looking a lot like the US did in 2007. Read some of the presentations fromt the CAD banks and they all note it as an area of concern, they also note that growth in CAD is expected to be slow and any future growth will likely come from expanding operations in the US.

They do pay better dividends.

Another Reader

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #32 on: January 17, 2013, 08:42:59 AM »
Thanks.  Perhaps a small position in EWC would be a wiser choice, although those bank dividends are appealing....

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #33 on: January 21, 2013, 12:38:06 PM »
I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm going to be paying close attention to Boeing's stock action following the 787 grounding. I've wanted to get into Boeing, but the yield for the dividend and price have kind've driven me away. If the shares take a decent tumble, I'll buy a nice chunk for my portfolio to keep.

I had the exact same thought today flying 35,000 feet in the air inside a Boeing product.  But then I became more interested in buying the airline I was flying on -- Jet Blue (JBLU).  I would buy BA for a trade; my plan with JBLU would be to buy and hold for many months. 

Khan

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #34 on: January 22, 2013, 09:29:20 AM »
I'm personally terrified of airline stocks, LUV is one of the few that hasn't ever had any issues(and that could change at any time). More power to you if you're willing to go into there, but when I'm picking an investment, I like longer term prospects, and when I'm picking a trade, I like something I'm able to value myself and compare to the market.

See
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57333012/why-would-anyone-buy-an-airline-stock/
http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/09/why-airlines-are-bad-investments.html

New stuff: entered into small positions in BZR(2k position and I'm willing to risk it) and AMD(just realized they scored the win on all three next gen consoles, and it might actually be as oversold as Nokia was, but it's still a tiny position compared to what I went into Nokia with, can't justify it that much, 2k).

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #35 on: January 22, 2013, 09:38:17 AM »
I'm personally terrified of airline stocks, LUV is one of the few that hasn't ever had any issues(and that could change at any time). More power to you if you're willing to go into there, but when I'm picking an investment, I like longer term prospects, and when I'm picking a trade, I like something I'm able to value myself and compare to the market.

See
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57333012/why-would-anyone-buy-an-airline-stock/
http://www.barelkarsan.com/2008/09/why-airlines-are-bad-investments.html

Sometimes the worst companies/sectors make the best stocks.   

 

chucklesmcgee

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #36 on: January 22, 2013, 11:03:41 AM »
DDD anyone? High risk, but high-reward potential.

Up 400% in the past year.  I think the bulk of reward has already been had.

22% of the float is being shorted.  Looks like a gigantic short squeeze, IMO.

Buyer beware.

IT'S GONE UP A LOT SO IT'S NOT GOING TO GO UP ANYMORE #activeinvestorlogic

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #37 on: January 22, 2013, 11:58:05 AM »
DDD anyone? High risk, but high-reward potential.

Up 400% in the past year.  I think the bulk of reward has already been had.

22% of the float is being shorted.  Looks like a gigantic short squeeze, IMO.

Buyer beware.

IT'S GONE UP A LOT SO IT'S NOT GOING TO GO UP ANYMORE #activeinvestorlogic

Who said it's not going to go up anymore?  Oh, that's right, you did, just now.  Carry on!








arebelspy

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #38 on: January 22, 2013, 12:15:40 PM »
IT'S GONE UP A LOT SO IT'S NOT GOING TO GO UP ANYMORE #activeinvestorlogic

Trolling them is fun, but let's go ahead and let them have their own thread.  If you want to make a thread titled #activeinvestorlogic with fun posts like this, feel free.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #39 on: January 22, 2013, 12:48:10 PM »
IT'S GONE UP A LOT SO IT'S NOT GOING TO GO UP ANYMORE #activeinvestorlogic

Trolling them is fun, but let's go ahead and let them have their own thread.  If you want to make a thread titled #activeinvestorlogic with fun posts like this, feel free.

Hey now!

I feel more worthless than Facebook stock!  (Which is, I may add, 60% higher than when you and I heatedly debated in August where the stock was headed.  I think you put a $7 price target on the stock?).

And I won't even bring up my RIMM call above, which has returned 60% in a matter of weeks (and which I would be selling off starting now).

Or my Ford thread (up 25% in a month)

Or the call to buy Spain over the summer (tooqk4u22's timely thread), which has returned roughly 30% (EWP). 

Or my idea that HPQ would bounce in the new year (up 20% in January), even though you said "sell Mortimer, sell!" in mid December.

Move over Orlando!  lol.





arebelspy

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #40 on: January 22, 2013, 02:17:45 PM »
Mmm.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

Rangifer

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #41 on: January 22, 2013, 03:31:14 PM »
DDD finally broke the 100 P/E mark today..... not sure how long this can last. Sell before earnings, or not?

Then again, amazon trades at 3600 P/E...

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #42 on: January 22, 2013, 04:24:16 PM »
DDD finally broke the 100 P/E mark today..... not sure how long this can last. Sell before earnings, or not?

Then again, amazon trades at 3600 P/E...

Which should tell you that backward looking P/E ratios are useless for the purposes of timing buys or sells in high-octane stocks like DDD.

Bottom line:  the most explosive segment of a parabolic stock move -- and DDD's multi-year chart has gone parabolic -- tends to come at the end of the move.  File this stock under "too scared to buy it, too smart to short it" for me.

In your case, it might make sense to sell a little before earnings are announced, especially given that it's run higher into earnings, thereby setting up a potential "sell the news" reaction. 

As they say, may your first sale be your worst.   Good luck!

chucklesmcgee

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2013, 04:29:27 PM »
Hey now!

I feel more worthless than Facebook stock!  (Which is, I may add, 60% higher than when you and I heatedly debated in August where the stock was headed.  I think you put a $7 price target on the stock?).

And I won't even bring up my RIMM call above, which has returned 60% in a matter of weeks (and which I would be selling off starting now).

Or my Ford thread (up 25% in a month)

Or the call to buy Spain over the summer (tooqk4u22's timely thread), which has returned roughly 30% (EWP). 

Or my idea that HPQ would bounce in the new year (up 20% in January), even though you said "sell Mortimer, sell!" in mid December.

Move over Orlando!  lol.

"Oh let's cherry pick from my vague predictions to bolster the empirically disproved assertion that I'm better than a monkey". I challenge you to make a thread. Post whenever you have a hot pick and post whether a certain stock, anything listed on the Dow, NYSE or NASDAQ, will have outperformed or underperformed the Dow over any defined period you want, so long as it's greater than a week and under 12 months. Let's see how you do.

I'll let you pick out 20 stocks from different companies, whenever you feel like it. Day by day or all at once. Specify the time period in which you think a stock will underperform or outperform the Dow. Prices to be compared will be the closing price of the stock and the Dow on the day you make your pick and the day of your finish. Picks must be made while the market is closed.

If all 20 of your picks beat the market returns, I'll give you $100. The only thing you're wagering is your pride.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #44 on: January 22, 2013, 06:01:07 PM »
Good sir, I've made recent threads (Ford Tough), I've posted ideas on this thread (buy RIMM, buy AAPL last Wed at close, buy JBLU yesterday, which I bought this morning, at $6.12), I've been a FB bull ever since it fell below $20 (see "Efficient Markets, RIP" thread), I've said buy Spain over the summer (TEF thread), I've attempted surgical index shorts or quick longs -- some hits, some misses -- which I detailed in real time.

You dissed me in the HPQ thread by calling my prediction vague, but all I said was "I believe that perhaps right around here ($12-14) HPQ tries to make a heroic stand as it attempts to bounce back to the high teens.   As long as it stays above $11 the stock appears to be putting in a bottom -- temporarily, of course.  And mind you, I have zero desire to speculate one way or the other.  But if you put a gun to my head and said "buy or sell," I would definitely be a better buyer, especially down a buck or two from these levels. "  The stock was at 14.60 that day, sold off to 13.60 a week later ("better buyer, especially down a buck") and now sits at $17.20, up 25%.  That's vague? 

So before you dazzle us with your internet bravado by tossing around c-notes like you're the boss, at least please acknowledge that that last thing you or anybody else can say about me is that I don't post/own my picks. 

That said, I reject your challenge, because it's absolutely unintelligible. 






tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #45 on: January 23, 2013, 09:21:59 AM »
I will say Smedley took a beating on this notion to the point he left and came back but he has been regularly making his calls and some have been oddly well timed. 

There could be a lot of things at play - current rising tide effect of the markets causing some of the underperformers to play catch up, we don't know if he is telling us all of his investment ideas so there may be some that are utter failures or winners, and we don't if he is actually making these trades or not. 

Regardless none of that matters because he has put himself out there and continues to do so and only with time will we see if it is consistently successful - still not enough of a timeframe to qualify one way or another.

Keep it up Smedley

arebelspy

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #46 on: January 23, 2013, 09:37:37 AM »
I'd have more respect if he made definitive calls without weasel words.

Direct quote: "I believe that perhaps right around here"

..really?

Stuff like "I'm buying X shares of stock Y at $Z today" rather than "I think that perhaps maybe stock Y might see a bounce" (then, if it does, he can claim a win, if it doesn't, well, he didn't commit.)

Essentially all of his "predictions" that I have seen have been the latter type, rather than the former.
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tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #47 on: January 23, 2013, 09:50:14 AM »
I'd have more respect if he made definitive calls without weasel words.

Direct quote: "I believe that perhaps right around here"

..really?

Stuff like "I'm buying X shares of stock Y at $Z today" rather than "I think that perhaps maybe stock Y might see a bounce" (then, if it does, he can claim a win, if it doesn't, well, he didn't commit.)

Essentially all of his "predictions" that I have seen have been the latter type, rather than the former.

I hear you on that he has clearly done that , I guess I am less focused on the technical language and still hold him accountable (i.e. the non-commital aspect doesn't play)...in my mind he is making a call even if the number isn't precise and if it doesn't play out I don't view it as he didn't commit - I view it as he was wrong.

There were other posts of his where he was getting really technical and I am sure most people have no interest in reading that.

As I said I am still open minded but trends need time to be revealed - good or bad.


smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #48 on: January 23, 2013, 09:57:28 AM »
I'd have more respect if he made definitive calls without weasel words.

And I would have more respect for a moderator who doesn't actively encourage posters to troll other posters for fun.   Ridiculous.

Or a mod who spends quite a bit of time mocking "timing" techniques in one thread, then starts talking about "historically low interest rates" in another, as if the interest rate market is "inefficient"" and thus ripe for exploitation by a shrewd real estate speculator.   No contradictions here, Batman. 

It's quite comical, really. 

And thank's for the support tooq.  I actually enjoy sharing ideas with you and with other posters in this thread, in spite of the constant theoretical distractions by posters who seem to have more of an ax to grind than a point to make.   

 


« Last Edit: January 23, 2013, 10:34:26 AM by smedleyb »

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #49 on: January 23, 2013, 10:18:25 AM »
I'd have more respect if he made definitive calls without weasel words.

Essentially all of his "predictions" that I have seen have been the latter type, rather than the former.

I've accumulated a not insignificant amount of Ford shares the past two days.

RIMM.  New OS at end of month, potential $1.50 in 2013 earnings, could see $30 by the end of the year (potential takeover candidate).  I've owned it, sold it, and recently bought and sold it again.  Hoping it revisits it's recent low (10.60) before buying again

I say buy when there is blood on the streets.  And the Spanish market has been bloodied beyond recognition.  Banco Santander (STD), Telefonica (TEF), even the Spanish ETF (EWP) represent easy ways to play the Spanish market.  I say invest what you can afford to lose, but scrunch your nose and buy the panic. 

My recent trade in FB was based on what is known as a 50% Fibonacci retracement level ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_retracement) which worked to $19 (low was 19.80 vs. IPO price of $38), but it also relied on the idea that the guys buying at $38 or higher became weak, scared holders and started puking it up at $19 and change.  As you can see the stock is up nicely since then (10%) and might have another couple points in the tank.

Yeah, lots of vacillating, weasely words in those passages.

You know what's weasely?  Using expressions like "if I recall correctly" and "should:"

IIRC FB should be at $7 based on current earnings (though obviously forward projected P/E is different).

Let's hold up our statements for the entire world to see before we start claiming the intellectual high ground.