Author Topic: stock ideas  (Read 31751 times)

Rangifer

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #50 on: January 23, 2013, 11:04:04 AM »
I'd have more respect if he made definitive calls without weasel words.




No competent person in any field that deals with uncertainties makes absolute statements. 

grantmeaname

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #51 on: January 23, 2013, 11:45:00 AM »
And I would have more respect for a moderator who doesn't actively encourage posters to troll other posters for fun.   Ridiculous.
Reading comprehension fail? He said that while it may be fun, the troll had to go elsewhere and let you have the thread for your predictions, the purpose it was started for. I get that you guys have a bone to pick, but he was trying to do you a favor.

arebelspy

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #52 on: January 23, 2013, 12:17:03 PM »
And I would have more respect for a moderator who doesn't actively encourage posters to troll other posters for fun.   Ridiculous.

Actually I said that while trolling them is fun, don't do so here, start your own separate thread if you want to talk about your opinions on active stock trading.

You know what's weasely?  Using expressions like "if I recall correctly" and "should:"

IIRC FB should be at $7 based on current earnings (though obviously forward projected P/E is different).

That's because I was trying to remember what I had read from an article.  It wasn't my opinion on what its value is.  My opinion on the value is whatever the market price is right now.

No competent person in any field that deals with uncertainties makes absolute statements. 

And that's fine, but then to claim victory when your vague statements turn out correct doesn't hold much water.
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smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #53 on: January 23, 2013, 01:12:44 PM »
Actually I said that while trolling them is fun, don't do so here, start your own separate thread if you want to talk about your opinions on active stock trading.

Lol!!!

Trolling them is fun, but let's go ahead and let them have their own thread.  If you want to make a thread titled #activeinvestorlogic with fun posts like this, feel free.

Translation: 

"Look chuckles, you and I know ripping on these stock picking ass-clowns is a blast, and you know damn well I'm 100% behind you, but I did promise the poor shleps a little thread over here and out of way -- yes, yes, they are just monkeys throwing darts! -- so do me the courtesy and start another thread where you can freely mock them!  Thanks bro!"

Didn't Lumbergh in Office Space say "yeah, let's go ahead......and move that desk into the basement".

Hey man, it's all perception!  Nothing but mad love for my favorite mod.


« Last Edit: January 23, 2013, 01:14:32 PM by smedleyb »

arebelspy

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #54 on: January 23, 2013, 01:33:44 PM »
Read whatever you want into it, my hope is this stays a stock picking thread.  Notice I didn't post in this thread once until that post, and you decided to troll me.

I'm ready to stop discussing our feelings and go back to ignoring this thread, but if you want to go into it further, feel free to PM me.

Back on topic?
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smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #55 on: January 23, 2013, 02:08:28 PM »
APPL on deck with earnings.

Or as they say, "what matters is not the earnings themselves, but the reaction to the earnings."

edit:  Holy whipsaw.   AAPL just traded over 80 points (down 10, up 30, now down 40 -- off $25 from closing price) all in the space of 5 minutes. 

edit:  AAPL now down $53 from its 4 pm NY close to $462 as I type this.  This smells like a capitulatory move by the weak bulls in the stock.




« Last Edit: January 23, 2013, 03:31:48 PM by smedleyb »

tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #56 on: January 23, 2013, 03:53:45 PM »
APPL on deck with earnings.

Or as they say, "what matters is not the earnings themselves, but the reaction to the earnings."

edit:  Holy whipsaw.   AAPL just traded over 80 points (down 10, up 30, now down 40 -- off $25 from closing price) all in the space of 5 minutes. 

edit:  AAPL now down $53 from its 4 pm NY close to $462 as I type this.  This smells like a capitulatory move by the weak bulls in the stock.

Ouch - and to think it was up 2% on the day, not to state the obvious but what were people thinking when it was reported last week that that Apple canceled parts orders on the iphone and ipad - didn't have to be genius to figure out there was a miss coming. 

I am not sure it is capitulation - you have to keep in mind that Apple ran up like it did because it was viewed as I high growth stock and its margins were off the charts so don't get fooled by the low P/E ratio.  The company is migrating from a niche highly valued brand that was highly innovative to a commodity like consumer products company. Revenues were still up a lot YOY but gross margins dropped (but still are healthy). 

There will be support at these levels and when the dust settles there should be an uptick in the price - but the days of this stock shooting to the moon are gone.

Keep in mind that the company has $140 billion of cash (30% of its market cap) and no debt - that means the company is valued at $310-320/share net of cash.

UMMMMM........ok now I am interested.

tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #57 on: January 23, 2013, 04:01:23 PM »
Couple more intangible arguments:

After the drop the 12 month gain would be about the same as the S&P 500.

Netting out the change in cash over the last two years basically puts the stock at the price it was two years ago - i.e. they should have been paying more dividends if they couldn't find a way to invest the money. 

A commodities like consumer products company with a super brand.....shit. 

Help!!!!

Another Reader

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #58 on: January 23, 2013, 04:07:04 PM »
Ummmm...maybe another Microsoft?  Too much cash and not enough places to put it, along with a fading brand?

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #59 on: January 23, 2013, 04:10:08 PM »
UMMMMM........ok now I am interested.

Ditto.   Stock just tagged 457, down 13%.  Forward guidance was negative, hence the continued sell off.

I got my eyes on 420 as an important inflection point.  We'll see how this plays out tomorrow and over the next several weeks.  I think the dust needs to settle before it's safe to buy.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #60 on: January 23, 2013, 04:10:45 PM »
Ummmm...maybe another Microsoft?  Too much cash and not enough places to put it, along with a fading brand?

Too soon for that analogy, IMO.

tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #61 on: January 23, 2013, 05:39:39 PM »
Ummmm...maybe another Microsoft?  Too much cash and not enough places to put it, along with a fading brand?

Too soon for that analogy, IMO.

yeah definitely too soon for that...Apple still had a pretty good growth rate but they are transitioning from a high growth company to a mature one and the valuations are starting to look like it.

It is hard for me to be interested because I have been an Apple-bear for so long.  Like I said I am interested but plan to watch and see it evolve...they should have bought netflix, which would have played nice with AppleTV.


smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #62 on: January 23, 2013, 05:53:45 PM »
It is hard for me to be interested because I have been an Apple-bear for so long.  Like I said I am interested but plan to watch and see it evolve...they should have bought netflix, which would have played nice with AppleTV.

We should have bought NFLX, considering it's up  35% after hours. lol!

tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #63 on: January 24, 2013, 07:14:09 AM »
It is hard for me to be interested because I have been an Apple-bear for so long.  Like I said I am interested but plan to watch and see it evolve...they should have bought netflix, which would have played nice with AppleTV.

We should have bought NFLX, considering it's up  35% after hours. lol!

No kidding.  But I have to admit that when I got interested in the stock when it was around $60 and I liked it but didn't buy in because I am not comfortable with management and business model (way too much risk of competition) - there are a lot of threats and it is viewed that Amazon is the primary and to some extent cable providers.  I think cable providers are the biggest threat but not for the reason that most think, which is premium channels.  Cable companies already have the infrastructure and content and can offer it through web or on-demand - they charge like $5-10 to rent a movie through these (absurd) - if they ever view netflix as a real threat all they have to do is reduce that to $1 or have unlimited subscription service option - either one would be devasting to NFLX (while that wouldn't matter to MMM followers there are still a lot of people with cable and use netflix - and almost everyone has internet service provided by a cable company). 

Not to mention NFLX's margins have collapsed. 

Short story is I wasn't comfortable then and would avoid it now....it is nothing more than a trading stock IMO.

fiveoh

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #64 on: January 24, 2013, 07:43:50 AM »
Well I was wrong on my aapl call.   Glad I didnt buy any last week.  I put a limit order for a small amount in today @440.  We will see if it gets filled.  The guidance and lower parts orders worries me but not the "miss".  The year ago quarter had an extra week in it so you cant really compare the year over year numbers here. 

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #65 on: January 24, 2013, 07:55:00 AM »
SPX up with AAPL down big?   Healthy rotation of capital into other sectors (implied by action), or massive denial?  I think the later, and have layered into a SPY put position at 149.65.  Probably wrong, and I got a tight stop about $1 higher to limit the pain if I am.

fiveoh

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #66 on: January 24, 2013, 08:04:29 AM »
SPX up with AAPL down big?   Healthy rotation of capital into other sectors (implied by action), or massive denial?  I think the later, and have layered into a SPY put position at 149.65.  Probably wrong, and I got a tight stop about $1 higher to limit the pain if I am.

I have to agree.  Long due for an overall market correction.(although I think a small one)  7 up days in a row....

madage

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #67 on: January 24, 2013, 08:09:13 AM »
Ouch - and to think it was up 2% on the day, not to state the obvious but what were people thinking when it was reported last week that that Apple canceled parts orders on the iphone and ipad - didn't have to be genius to figure out there was a miss coming. 

The "lack of iPhone demand" story lacked appropriate facts. Here's analysis from Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2013/01/15/did-the-wsj-get-punkd-on-apple-or-is-it-rotten-to-the-core/

Supply of iPhone 4 was constrained for the entire quarter. Supply of iPhone 5 was constrained for most of the quarter. These statements came straight from Tim Cook during the conference call. Here's a summary from Macworld: http://www.macworld.com/article/2026141/in-his-own-words-tim-cook-on-apple-earnings-and-more.html

I'm not a sophisticated stock investor, but I just don't understand the doom and gloom regarding Apple. This company recently completed the fourth most-profitable financial year of all time (quarter ending Sept. 2012). The highest three earnings years all belong to Exxon (#5 and 6, too). Apple then followed that up with the fourth most-profitable quarter of all time (top three are all oil companies). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_corporate_profits_and_losses

Apple seems to be held to a different standard than a company like Amazon, which has not yet released Q4 2012 results, but actually reported a loss on their Q3 results, reports very little profit when it has any ($7 M net Q2, $130 M net Q1), and yet the stock trades at a P/E of 3700. Does anyone here understand this?

There is no doubt Apple is bumping up against the law of large numbers, but their products remain very, very popular. Apple's 75 million iOS device sales in the quarter works out to a rate of 10 per second. Even if growth is slowing, Apple is a very profitable company, and I don't see that changing any time soon.


smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #68 on: January 24, 2013, 09:19:55 AM »
SPX up with AAPL down big?   Healthy rotation of capital into other sectors (implied by action), or massive denial?  I think the later, and have layered into a SPY put position at 149.65.  Probably wrong, and I got a tight stop about $1 higher to limit the pain if I am.

I have to agree.  Long due for an overall market correction.(although I think a small one)  7 up days in a row....

I'll tell ya fiveoh, shorting the market here feels absolutely wrong and stupid, which is oddly a positive (the best trade is usually the hardest trade).

We shall see.  Down .35 (on the SPY short) as we speak...

edit: Closed out trade Monday the 28th in the a.m. and made $1.75 after commish.  Not feeling this trade at all.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2013, 12:28:43 PM by smedleyb »

tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #69 on: January 24, 2013, 09:30:35 AM »
The "lack of iPhone demand" story lacked appropriate facts. Here's analysis from Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2013/01/15/did-the-wsj-get-punkd-on-apple-or-is-it-rotten-to-the-core/

Maybe - but hindsight being what it is there may have been some truth to it - remember that the stock got crushed when the earnings were released not as much when the article was released.

Supply of iPhone 4 was constrained for the entire quarter. Supply of iPhone 5 was constrained for most of the quarter. These statements came straight from Tim Cook during the conference call. Here's a summary from Macworld: http://www.macworld.com/article/2026141/in-his-own-words-tim-cook-on-apple-earnings-and-more.html

1.  I would say his response "lacked appropriate facts" as he didn't confirm or deny.
2.  If sales were constrained due to production when all expectations looking forward were that sales demand would be high then there is a major management issue - and if that's the case I will no longer be interested. 

Apple seems to be held to a different standard than a company like Amazon, which has not yet released Q4 2012 results, but actually reported a loss on their Q3 results, reports very little profit when it has any ($7 M net Q2, $130 M net Q1), and yet the stock trades at a P/E of 3700. Does anyone here understand this?

While I don't understand Amazon valuations but AMZN and Apple are different types of companies - people confuse Apple as a tech company....it is not, it is a consumer products company.   Anyway it is held to a higher standard because it is/was(?) commanding a premium due to being an very innovative company with very high growth potential - both of which are clearly waning.

There is no doubt Apple is bumping up against the law of large numbers, but their products remain very, very popular. Apple's 75 million iOS device sales in the quarter works out to a rate of 10 per second. Even if growth is slowing, Apple is a very profitable company, and I don't see that changing any time soon.

It doesn't matter how many they sell a second.  Your last sentence is the most important....yes growth is slowing (but not declining), yes they are very profitable (but margins are shrinking), and that may not change which is why it might make a good hold for a mature/growth play with growing dividends. 

tooqk4u22

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #70 on: January 24, 2013, 09:35:44 AM »
SPX up with AAPL down big?   Healthy rotation of capital into other sectors (implied by action), or massive denial?  I think the later, and have layered into a SPY put position at 149.65.  Probably wrong, and I got a tight stop about $1 higher to limit the pain if I am.

I have to agree.  Long due for an overall market correction.(although I think a small one)  7 up days in a row....

I'll tell ya fiveoh, shorting the market here feels absolutely wrong and stupid, which is oddly a positive (the best trade is usually the hardest trade).

We shall see.  Down .35 (on the SPY short) as we speak...

I too am nervous about the market and prospects for a correction - market valuations have gone up while underlying fundamentals have been flat to down and there is the looming bs in washington on the horizon.  It has been risk-on because there has been little peripheral noise that we are so accustomed to and the fed (which is the real driver) artificially proping up markets. 

That said, I wouldn't short it but I would hold back from putting more in.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #71 on: January 24, 2013, 09:51:38 AM »
That said, I wouldn't short it but I would hold back from putting more in.

I got my eye on the BKX.  The market won't roll over till' the banks do, IMO.

Khan

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #72 on: January 24, 2013, 02:15:13 PM »
New news: Unfortunately I pulled the "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" in a way with Nokia. Them cutting the dividend after the runup in share price, made me choose to lock in my winnings. I'm hoping for the share price to slide down over the next couple of weeks, pressured by that and the bears, and will buy in again <4$, especially ~3.75 level(where if it hits that, I'll probably, barring bad news, buy ~20-30k again).

Finally picked up some NNN(really been wanting to get that), and am now gonna get my 2013 Roth contributions in.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #73 on: January 25, 2013, 07:29:38 AM »
4 months ago  APPL was over $700 and the SPX was hovering around 1470.

At that point if you would have told me AAPL would be down 35% by January but the overall market would be 2% higher, I would have laughed in your face. 

Or as the bulls like to say, "who's laughing now?!"

DoubleDown

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #74 on: January 25, 2013, 09:28:32 AM »
Back in about 2000, before anyone had heard of an iPod or iPhone or iAnything, my buddy was really interested in buying AAPL. I don't remember what it cost exactly, I think somewhere between $15-20 at the time. The company was reeling, their Mac business sucked, Microsoft was kicking their ass, etc. The prevailing mood was the company was going under completely. But my friend thought the company was "cool." I voiced my skepticism to his plan to buy the stock, and unfortunately he listened to me. What an asshole I was (okay not really an asshole, but I wish he had not listened to me)!! Fortunately we are still friends and he doesn't hold it against me. I'm not sure he even remembers, but I sure do!

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #75 on: January 28, 2013, 12:36:38 PM »
DDD finally broke the 100 P/E mark today..... not sure how long this can last. Sell before earnings, or not?

Then again, amazon trades at 3600 P/E...

Rangifer, any thoughts/reactions to DDD earnings?  Powerful reversal today after an extraordinary run.

Rangifer

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #76 on: January 28, 2013, 05:10:07 PM »

Rangifer, any thoughts/reactions to DDD earnings?  Powerful reversal today after an extraordinary run.

Holy shit, right?

It looks like someone decided to cash out $100 million of stock right at the beginning of the day. There isn't any big news story that broke or anything, so it's either just profit taking, or someone knows something we don't.

Still in it, though.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2013, 05:16:35 PM by Rangifer »

Effort_to_Stach

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #77 on: January 29, 2013, 05:05:57 AM »
Nobody brought up Facebook yet?

FB posts after market closes on Wednesday. Supposedly their add revenue from phones has greatly improved. There has already been a nice run-up in price the past couple of months.

I got in at 28.00 a couple weeks ago and have a nice 15% so far. Interested to see if earnings so so or cause an uptick.

Khan

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #78 on: January 29, 2013, 06:57:15 AM »
No Effort_to_Stach, I have no interest in Facebook, as it's priced for growth, and I don't have any interest in the business. There are times for you to hold your nose and buy a company because it is severely undervalued(such as I did and sold out of AMD, I have little interest in being in AMD during this year, but I'll catch a +15% if I can, and did). Facebook doesn't even have a low valuation attached to it, it's P/E is 301.

301. You know what? I don't really care what it's forward P/E is anymore anyways, **** that. If you believe in the business or the stock, more power to you. As I've said, I don't and can't even be attracted by a super negative sentiment that is depressing the stock, because facebook is not depressed, it is overexuberance.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #79 on: January 29, 2013, 08:34:29 AM »
No Effort_to_Stach, I have no interest in Facebook, as it's priced for growth, and I don't have any interest in the business. There are times for you to hold your nose and buy a company because it is severely undervalued(such as I did and sold out of AMD, I have little interest in being in AMD during this year, but I'll catch a +15% if I can, and did). Facebook doesn't even have a low valuation attached to it, it's P/E is 301.

301. You know what? I don't really care what it's forward P/E is anymore anyways, **** that. If you believe in the business or the stock, more power to you. As I've said, I don't and can't even be attracted by a super negative sentiment that is depressing the stock, because facebook is not depressed, it is overexuberance.

The time to be bullish on FB was during the summer, not now after an amazing 70% run.

FB is setting up far a classic "sell the news" reaction.  I would be short rather than long heading into earnings, IMO.

RoseRelish

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #80 on: January 29, 2013, 12:43:07 PM »
Any thoughts on F getting smashed today? When is it time to buy this thing?

KingCoin

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #81 on: January 30, 2013, 01:40:28 PM »
Anyone taken a look at Tucows (TCX)? They own Mustachian favorite Ting which is growing very quickly (I use and like their product). Market cap is only $88mm so I wonder if it's flying under the radar. The company recently bought back 10% of their shares in a tender (they were shooting to buy back 15%) which has caused a big pop in the price since December.

Due to the dearth of professional analysis out there on this one, I suppose this will require rolling up the sleeves and doing some deep diving, but I wondered if anyone had done some relevant work on it.

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #82 on: January 31, 2013, 12:29:39 PM »
Anyone taken a look at Tucows (TCX)? They own Mustachian favorite Ting which is growing very quickly (I use and like their product). Market cap is only $88mm so I wonder if it's flying under the radar. The company recently bought back 10% of their shares in a tender (they were shooting to buy back 15%) which has caused a big pop in the price since December.

Due to the dearth of professional analysis out there on this one, I suppose this will require rolling up the sleeves and doing some deep diving, but I wondered if anyone had done some relevant work on it.

Good find, KingCoin.  Do you have a position yet or are you just kind of circling the stock, waiting to pounce?  Good fundamentals (EPS growth), excellent technicals (new all time high on big volume) and being an under the radar stock (and thus outside the purview of the mutual fund machine) make TCX an excellent investment, IMO.  High risk, sure, but high reward too. 

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #83 on: January 31, 2013, 12:41:39 PM »

Rangifer, any thoughts/reactions to DDD earnings?  Powerful reversal today after an extraordinary run.

Holy shit, right?

It looks like someone decided to cash out $100 million of stock right at the beginning of the day. There isn't any big news story that broke or anything, so it's either just profit taking, or someone knows something we don't.

Still in it, though.

DDD attempting to put in a "hammer" reversal after touching it's 50 DMA this morning ($54).  A close above $60 and the bulls are back in control, IMO.




smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #84 on: January 31, 2013, 12:44:26 PM »
Any thoughts on F getting smashed today? When is it time to buy this thing?

I'd wait for an 11 handle before ever considering reentering F.  My thoughts anyways are on RIMM, which I think is an easy double from these levels over the next 12 months.  Waiting for a print under $12 before I pounce, although I made wade into gently as it approaches that level.

KingCoin

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #85 on: January 31, 2013, 01:25:40 PM »
Good find, KingCoin.  Do you have a position yet or are you just kind of circling the stock, waiting to pounce?  Good fundamentals (EPS growth), excellent technicals (new all time high on big volume) and being an under the radar stock (and thus outside the purview of the mutual fund machine) make TCX an excellent investment, IMO.  High risk, sure, but high reward too. 

I bought some post earnings call/tender announcement. At the time, the company looked reasonably priced on the back of their domain businesses alone. Ting looked like a big, upside kicker to me. They had subscribers growing at 6% a week (albeit off a small base). I worry that the MVNO model is fairly low barrier to entry, but the business doesn't have to grow wildly to contribute meaningfully to earnings.

I haven't built a DCF model yet, which is probably warranted before I get bigger.

fiveoh

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #86 on: February 09, 2013, 11:22:48 AM »
I've got money on apple increasing the dividend on the 27th.  I think they will up their div to around 3.5%.   

smedleyb

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Re: stock ideas
« Reply #87 on: February 24, 2013, 12:18:43 PM »
I've got money on apple increasing the dividend on the 27th.  I think they will up their div to around 3.5%.

I find it comical that hedge funder David Einhorn is pushing Apple to return to shareholders a piece of its 137 billion dollar stache of cash.  Who is this ass clown to tell the most profitable company in the world how to spend/inest it's money?  What's wrong David, did ya buy to high and now need a way out of your bad trade?

Sadly, I think einhorn's mentality represents all that's wrong with our economy in the way it seeks to prioritize financial engineering over product and technology innovation.