Author Topic: stagflation  (Read 7017 times)

American GenX

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #50 on: October 27, 2021, 04:36:47 PM »
If you are worried about inflation, buying a lot of bonds is a terrible idea. You could do TIPS or I-bonds, but otherwise, no.

-W

Yea sure I get that, but shouldn’t they be dirt cheap at the moment for that reason?....

Stocks and bonds are not dirt cheap because the entire stock and bond markets are betting against an outbreak of high inflation.

That outbreak of high inflation has already happened.  The government figures don't even match reality.

boarder42

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #51 on: October 27, 2021, 04:37:50 PM »
If you are worried about inflation, buying a lot of bonds is a terrible idea. You could do TIPS or I-bonds, but otherwise, no.

-W

Yea sure I get that, but shouldn’t they be dirt cheap at the moment for that reason?....

Stocks and bonds are not dirt cheap because the entire stock and bond markets are betting against an outbreak of high inflation.

That outbreak of high inflation has already happened.  The government figures don't even match reality.

What's your source then.

PDXTabs

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #52 on: October 28, 2021, 09:58:53 AM »
If you are worried about inflation, buying a lot of bonds is a terrible idea. You could do TIPS or I-bonds, but otherwise, no.

-W

Yea sure I get that, but shouldn’t they be dirt cheap at the moment for that reason?....

Stocks and bonds are not dirt cheap because the entire stock and bond markets are betting against an outbreak of high inflation.

That outbreak of high inflation has already happened.  The government figures don't even match reality.

I'm going to disagree with this. First of all, what is "high" inflation? Turkey currently has ~20% annual inflation. That might be high. (hyperinflation is typically defined as 50% per month).

I don't think the problem is with the government figures. I think the problem is with keeping interest rates near zero with massive QE while government reported inflation is ~5% depending on how you measure it (CPI, PCE, PPI, etc).

Michael in ABQ

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #53 on: October 28, 2021, 11:50:18 AM »
One of our suppliers started imposing a freight surcharge several months ago. This is on top of also raising prices on some products. It started out in July at 4%. In September it went up to 7%. November 1st it goes up to 10%. So that's an annualized increase of over 20%.

Another supplier is increasing prices 8-10% starting November 15th. Their prices had remained unchanged since late 2018.

talltexan

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #54 on: October 28, 2021, 01:02:23 PM »
One of our suppliers started imposing a freight surcharge several months ago. This is on top of also raising prices on some products. It started out in July at 4%. In September it went up to 7%. November 1st it goes up to 10%. So that's an annualized increase of over 20%.

Another supplier is increasing prices 8-10% starting November 15th. Their prices had remained unchanged since late 2018.

So 10% over three years?

Michael in ABQ

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #55 on: October 28, 2021, 02:27:20 PM »
One of our suppliers started imposing a freight surcharge several months ago. This is on top of also raising prices on some products. It started out in July at 4%. In September it went up to 7%. November 1st it goes up to 10%. So that's an annualized increase of over 20%.

Another supplier is increasing prices 8-10% starting November 15th. Their prices had remained unchanged since late 2018.

So 10% over three years?

Yes. Another supplier has kept their prices the same for close to a decade - maybe longer. I've got a paper catalog from 2012 and all their prices are basically the same. Great for us of course. The one supplier who has raised their prices three times in the last several months is probably the largest in our industry and imports most of their products from China - so they've probably felt the cost of a shipping container going from $3-5k to $20-25k a lot more than some of the smaller suppliers in our industry.

PDXTabs

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #56 on: October 28, 2021, 02:52:01 PM »
One of our suppliers started imposing a freight surcharge several months ago. This is on top of also raising prices on some products. It started out in July at 4%. In September it went up to 7%. November 1st it goes up to 10%. So that's an annualized increase of over 20%.

Another supplier is increasing prices 8-10% starting November 15th. Their prices had remained unchanged since late 2018.

So 10% over three years?

Yes. Another supplier has kept their prices the same for close to a decade - maybe longer. I've got a paper catalog from 2012 and all their prices are basically the same. Great for us of course. The one supplier who has raised their prices three times in the last several months is probably the largest in our industry and imports most of their products from China - so they've probably felt the cost of a shipping container going from $3-5k to $20-25k a lot more than some of the smaller suppliers in our industry.

They may have also finally priced in any China tariffs that they had perviously been eating.

effigy98

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #57 on: November 04, 2021, 06:31:26 PM »
Hell yes, super concerned. I am hedging like crazy.

Can grow my own food, make my own energy, harvest my own water, mine my own crypto... except for the internet connection, pretty self sufficient if needed. Have stocked up on goods I think we will use over the next couple years. Have extra goods that I think I can sell at a major profit in the future (inflation adjust of course)... Tilted the portfolios to inflation. I have paid off house, that is my deflation hedge and for my emotional well being, but overall I'm more concerned about inflation.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 06:34:50 PM by effigy98 »

talltexan

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #58 on: November 10, 2021, 12:14:28 PM »
I'm even less worried about inflation because my singled greatest budget line item is a fixed rate mortgage.

chasesfish

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #59 on: November 10, 2021, 01:51:55 PM »
I'm even less worried about inflation because my singled greatest budget line item is a fixed rate mortgage.

^ This if you are sure you are in your final home.

I'm too nomadic to do this and I don't trust buying a single family home at an underlying 3% cap rate

talltexan

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Re: stagflation
« Reply #60 on: November 15, 2021, 07:23:48 AM »
Are you nomadic because you change jobs or because the same job moves you around? Those two possibilities seem to have very different inflation risk profiles to me.