Author Topic: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!  (Read 2319 times)

texxan1

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When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« on: November 01, 2020, 07:59:37 AM »
So i always believed that i should be proud of the company i work for and they have treated me very well and have paid me very well for the last 14 years.. They have gone above and beyond and did some quit impressive things during rough times for my family and me.... Now, im about to get an early out package which makes some of my stock options mature and i have the ability to sell them, and the stock i had prior... However, the company is in the dumps right now due to covid and since they are and Oil and Gas company, there is a big transition going on in the world and who knows if the stock will ever go back up.

So im curious when people GET OUT!!!!!!!!!! of there company stock.

I dont include much thought on the options and such that will mature, as that to me is just a bonus....

The current stock i have, which is 1.89% of my portfolio is depressing lol.... I have aprox $32000 value that had a cost basis of $54000..... 55 % decline this year, but will it go up and stay there forever...

Since im leaving the company and will move my entire portfolio in my 401k from Fidelity to Vanguard, as well as my pension which is held through fidelity as well.... Half of me wants to keep my company stock and hope it goes up next year, b ut the other have of me says just sell it and cut ties....

Thoughts? Opinions?

Tex

YttriumNitrate

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 08:07:53 AM »
The current stock i have, which is 1.89% of my portfolio
Since it's such a small percentage of your portfolio, and you know the industry quite well, I'd probably keep it.

maizefolk

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 08:29:35 AM »
I read the same percentage and had the opposite initial reaction.

Since it is a relatively small portion of your net worth, just sell it so you don't have to worry about continuing to check the price and worrying about whether or not it is time to sell yet if it goes up, or worrying about whether you made a mistake not selling as soon as you could, if it goes down.

I don't know that there is a perfect right answer here.

bacchi

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 09:19:47 AM »
+1 to selling it

It sounds like an albatross, albeit a small one. Take the loss and use it against your gains.

reeshau

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 09:31:37 AM »

The current stock i have, which is 1.89% of my portfolio is depressing lol.... I have aprox $32000 value that had a cost basis of $54000..... 55 % decline this year, but will it go up and stay there forever...


Anchoring on the cost basis is neither healthy nor productive.  If that is the lens you will always view this investment through, then make it part of cutting ties with your job and sell it.

But oil is certainly depressed now.  Nobody is flying, cruising, or commuting.  (Although Houston does seem to have quite a few commuters)  this will probably correct itself before the entire global automobile fleet is replaced with electric cars.  So, there is probably opportunity, although with a lot of volatility, there.  As someone with industry experi3nce your guess might be better than the average peraon's.

Either way, 2% of your portfolio won't change your life, so do what you think will help you sleep better at night a year from now.

trollwithamustache

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 09:44:50 AM »
You mention stock and options. They do not have to be handled the same way.

1. Any option that can be exercised and sold profitably should be.

2. Out of the money options involve upping your stock ownership of your company, so you would need inside info that says this is a good idea. And it doesn't sound like it.

3. There is Stock held in a taxable account. Do you think they will go the Big BK? otherwise, at sub 2%, thats a responsible position size, and with oil stocks in the dumpster you will probably do well to wait for a return to better times. Although if you have other gains, tax loss harvesting is certainly worthwhile, especially the capital loss that can be taken agains income. 3k per year?


4. The last pot is the stock in a retirement account. If you don't think they will go the big BK, then same, waiting for better times probably makes sense.

ChpBstrd

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 09:32:22 AM »
You could sell call options against the shares and earn a few percent per year.

theolympians

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 10:24:43 AM »
The elephant in the room of your thinking when reading your initial post: "there is a big transition going on". What is that "big transition" you are referring to? That could help identify your underlying assumptions and assess your concerns more broadly.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 10:37:03 AM »
So i always believed that i should be proud of the company i work for and they have treated me very well and have paid me very well for the last 14 years.. They have gone above and beyond and did some quit impressive things during rough times for my family and me.... Now, im about to get an early out package which makes some of my stock options mature and i have the ability to sell them, and the stock i had prior... However, the company is in the dumps right now due to covid and since they are and Oil and Gas company, there is a big transition going on in the world and who knows if the stock will ever go back up.

So im curious when people GET OUT!!!!!!!!!! of there company stock.

I dont include much thought on the options and such that will mature, as that to me is just a bonus....

The current stock i have, which is 1.89% of my portfolio is depressing lol.... I have aprox $32000 value that had a cost basis of $54000..... 55 % decline this year, but will it go up and stay there forever...

Since im leaving the company and will move my entire portfolio in my 401k from Fidelity to Vanguard, as well as my pension which is held through fidelity as well.... Half of me wants to keep my company stock and hope it goes up next year, b ut the other have of me says just sell it and cut ties....

Thoughts? Opinions?

Tex

1.89% <1/50 of your portfolio.

If I were standing in your shoes I wouldn't give a second thought to keeping the stock.

You don't need to sell it now.

« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 10:39:26 AM by John Galt incarnate! »

RobertFromTX

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2020, 06:04:13 PM »
75% of my investment value is in a single, privately held, regional bank.

I sleep quite well.

CowboyAndIndian

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2020, 10:03:18 AM »
I cannot predict short term. There may be some recovery and a little price rise.

Over the long term, Oil and gas is going down. I'd suggest seeing the futurist Tony Seba's youtube video about Energy and transportation. https://youtu.be/2b3ttqYDwF0

So, I would either sell right now or wait for a small pop in price before I sell. I would not wait longer than 6-9 months to sell.



MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2020, 08:23:12 AM »
I hold stock options on XOP, an oil & gas ETF.
XOP is up +13% today.
There is still room for XOP to double during a recovery, so I would point out this is only 1/8th of the possible recovery - cut that in half and say it's 1/4th.  It's still a lot more room to go.

The current estimate is widespread vaccinations by the first half of 2021 - by June.
2021 JUNE call $41 options are up +63%
2021 JUNE call $60 options are up +85%

That's before FDA approval, before doctors get vaccinated, and before widespread vaccination.  In my view, it makes sense to hold oil stocks and stock options until June, to see how much of the recovery translates to higher oil & gas stock prices.

Tempname23

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Re: When to get OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2020, 03:49:49 AM »
The stock you own doesn't matter, what matters is risk and reward.
 Is there a different stock or mutual fund that has less risk or more reward than the Oil and Gas stock you own. Just because you worked there doesn't make it better or worse, and sentimental value is not the reason to own it. Can you write of the $22k loss, if you sell and buy a different stock. You could also take the loss and buy it back in 30 days. Or split the difference, sell 1/2 and buy another stock/fund.