The Money Mustache Community

Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: CoffeeR on December 31, 2017, 04:20:45 PM

Title: S&P 500 up 20.49% this year! Down year to follow?
Post by: CoffeeR on December 31, 2017, 04:20:45 PM
So, the S&P 500 is up 20.49% this year. Reading financial porn, and even these Mustacian forums there seems to be a fear that such a good year cannot be followed by another. I do not know what the next year will hold, but in my investing lifetime the years: 1989 (31.69%), 1991 (30.47%), 1995 (37.58%), 1996 (22.96%), 1997 (33.36%), 1998 (28.58%), 1999 (21.04%), 2003 (28.68%), 2009 (26.46%), 2013 (32.39%) all had better returns. Yes it includes the dot com era, but also the housing meltdown. Of these 10 years, two years: 1989, 1999 where followed by negative returns. What does that mean for 2018? Nothing! But neither does the fact we had a nine positive year returns in a row mean we will have a down year. If we do have a down year (not a collapse) it may not be such a bad thing.
Title: Re: S&P 500 up 20.49% this year! Down year to follow?
Post by: retireatbirth on December 31, 2017, 04:26:17 PM
I'm predicting a downturn. We have full employment, signs of inflation coming, and idiots like me starting businesses. Surely, the economy is overheated.
Title: Re: S&P 500 up 20.49% this year! Down year to follow?
Post by: Retire-Canada on December 31, 2017, 05:33:04 PM
I predict it will be another excellent year for investment returns filled with repatriated off shore cash and stock buy backs for all!
Title: Re: S&P 500 up 20.49% this year! Down year to follow?
Post by: sol on December 31, 2017, 06:12:15 PM
The 2018 market predictions thread (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/2018-market-predictions/) is a wasteland of crickets and rolling sage brush under cold moonlight. 

Put some numbers on your predictions, or else they don't count.
Title: Re: S&P 500 up 20.49% this year! Down year to follow?
Post by: Livewell on January 01, 2018, 08:54:39 AM
I predict it will be another excellent year for investment returns filled with repatriated off shore cash and stock buy backs for all!

This.  Current environment is good for capital and while we are in the later cycle of the business cycle there is more left before the Fed shuts things down.
Title: Re: S&P 500 up 20.49% this year! Down year to follow?
Post by: TomTX on January 01, 2018, 02:47:50 PM
Top is In!

....just like people have been claiming since 2012...
Title: Re: S&P 500 up 20.49% this year! Down year to follow?
Post by: PDXTabs on January 01, 2018, 05:16:39 PM
I'm predicting a downturn. We have full employment, signs of inflation coming, and idiots like me starting businesses. Surely, the economy is overheated.

Sure, but is it 1995 or 1999? I don't pretend to know.
Title: Re: S&P 500 up 20.49% this year! Down year to follow?
Post by: WhiteTrashCash on January 01, 2018, 05:36:39 PM
I am fully expecting fantastic dividends in 2018 due to tax reform. Luckily, due to my frugal and minimalist ways, I'm not going to get hit with the tax penalties that some other folks are going to suffer. Feels good to live in a small house on a tiny plot of land.
Title: Re: S&P 500 up 20.49% this year! Down year to follow?
Post by: Mighty-Dollar on January 02, 2018, 01:20:46 AM
But neither does the fact we had a nine positive year returns in a row mean we will have a down year.
Someone on the Larry Cudlow show made a great point. Bull markets don't die of old age. They die from something... Something like the fed raising interest rates too fast or the end of the credit cycle.