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sp 500 closes at 2,637, what could it drop to?!

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bthewalls:
hello all,
I am curious of what a significant reduction in sp500 would look like nowadays, considering at the peak of this prolonged bull market it was 2900+ (I do like a bargain).

Wonder could everyone throw a guess at what they think it might drop too over the foreseeable?  Its 2600+ today, is 2300 or less even likely?

Baz

PS I know its not that important to 'time the market', just to buy.  I'm only trying to guesstimate what this bear market will get to.:-)

DreamFIRE:
No one knows.  I recommend against trying to time the market.

sol:
I don't know why everyone is so worried.  We're currently down about 10% from the all time high, but that sort of thing normally happens multiple times per year anyway, without causing a major recession.  Look at the charts and do some reading, and you'll see that over half of all three month periods see a decline of 10% or more from the trailing year's high.  10% corrections are normal and happen all the time.

Personally, I think that so many years of relentlessly positive growth, without any of the market's normal volatility, has deceived people.  They think they can never lose money, and they don't understand that these temporary price declines are part of what makes dollar cost averaging so profitable to begin with.  Chop wood, carry water.  Go on living your life and try not to stress.  A 10 percent drop does not mean a recession is imminent.

The average correction bottoms out around -13% and lasts about 3.5 months.  We're at 10% and two months.  We would need to see another 3% drop over the next month to even get around to average.

bthewalls:
Guys. You might be misreading. I’m not talking bout recession or market timing...just opinion of what a sp500 drop could amount to.

Eric:
If anyone knew the answer to the question with any certainly, they definitely wouldn't share it with you for free.  That answer would be worth a lot of money. 

BTW, this is not a bear market.  We'd need a 20% drop from the peak to reach that designation.

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