Author Topic: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?  (Read 20263 times)

pecunia

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #100 on: December 26, 2018, 04:21:29 PM »
This is a nice bounce.  It jumped up about 5 percent today, nice.  I guess these are people making money on the dip. (the bounce)  Stocks are sort of a commodity just like oil or lumber.  They used to say oil was somewhat inelastic in price.  People needed oil to survive.

How elastic or inelastic are index funds?  One may not need them to survive until they retire.

I disagree with Sol on this point. I think having 2-5 years in defensive assets that you sell from when a bear market hits is a smart idea. McClung has a rule like only sell stocks when it is 1.2 times above your initial retirement point. If it isn't at that level sell bonds/use cash. Of course there may come a point when you have no choice but to use stocks and you can probably only fire that type of bullet once or twice.

As do I.  I retired in August and due to my overly conservative nature and the fact that the market was red-hot, I kept many hundreds of thousands in cash.  I can outlast a 10 year long bear market :-)

Might I pay for this in terms of reduced returns over 30 years ?  Sure.  But my assets allocation is still 60% stocks, (or rather it was, I haven't recalculated it) and man it's worth it to be able to sleep so well during downturns like this.

I'll throw some decent amount into the market when the dust settles in the new year as well.  Looking forward to the higher returns on those sums.


People on this website are certainly disciplined.  Most folks live paycheck to paycheck.


maizefolk

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #101 on: December 26, 2018, 04:49:57 PM »
Stocks are sort of a commodity just like oil or lumber.  They used to say oil was somewhat inelastic in price.  People needed oil to survive.

How elastic or inelastic are index funds?  One may not need them to survive until they retire.

I would argue stocks are quite different from a commodity, and (part*) of the reason is that elasticity. In a commodity, like oil, when the price goes up people buy less and when the price goes down people buy more. How big a change in purchasing you get for a given change in price is what determines the elasticity of that particular commodity.

Stocks are different in that, when the price goes up, people buy more and when the price goes down people buy less.

*A much bigger part of the difference is that the expected annual return of owning stocks is positive. Price fluctuations happen when people change their minds about HOW positive. In contrast for commodities the expected annual return is zero.

TomTX

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #102 on: December 28, 2019, 06:54:52 AM »
Who cares? We're humans, we're able to survive a bear market, we're able to survive everything.

Note that this thread was started over a year ago. "Tomorrow" never came.

pecunia

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #103 on: December 28, 2019, 07:48:46 AM »
You know,........You can always say tomorrow ain't here yet.

Bad stuff has happened before.  Bad stuff will happen again.  History repeats itself.

"Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." - George said it.

As far as that valley that hit the stock market a year age, we all climbed out of that one like an old Willys in 4 wheel drive.  I hope that old Willys keeps running in 2020 as I'm gonna retire.

maizefolk

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #104 on: December 28, 2019, 09:38:28 AM »
Absolutely the first cheerful use of the phrase "tomorrow never came" I have heard or read in my decades of life on this planet. Well done.

TomTX

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #105 on: December 28, 2019, 11:02:28 AM »
Ha!

Glad you enjoyed it.

Trevor Reznik

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #106 on: December 28, 2019, 04:46:51 PM »
Nice to read some of the panic in the posts a year ago and then look back at my ETF purchases around the time and the nice cheap prices I paid.

TempusFugit

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #107 on: December 28, 2019, 05:03:47 PM »
Who cares? We're humans, we're able to survive a bear market, we're able to survive everything.

Note that this thread was started over a year ago. "Tomorrow" never came.

It kind of did, though.  I think we missed a technical bear market by less than one percentage point with the drop right before Christmas.   

TomTX

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #108 on: December 28, 2019, 06:16:00 PM »
Who cares? We're humans, we're able to survive a bear market, we're able to survive everything.

Note that this thread was started over a year ago. "Tomorrow" never came.

It kind of did, though.  I think we missed a technical bear market by less than one percentage point with the drop right before Christmas.

"Almost" means we didn't have one.

Brother Esau

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #109 on: December 28, 2019, 06:27:37 PM »
Top Is In!!

ysette9

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #110 on: December 28, 2019, 08:25:58 PM »
I started reading this thread but didn’t notice when it was originally started. I was scratching my head because while I usually don’t pay too much attention to the market, I felt I shouldn’t have been vaguely aware of the sky falling, as the first post seemed to indicate.

A year later it still doesn’t feel like the sky fell. I guess I really did miss something.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #111 on: December 28, 2019, 09:45:10 PM »
Normally I get (temporarily) irritated when a zombie thread comes back to life, but I am happy this one came back. 

FrugalToque

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #112 on: February 05, 2020, 07:11:56 AM »
It's great this thread got revived by a spammer.

Reminds us how shitty every expert is regarding the imminent arrival of economic collapse.

Toque.

frugalnacho

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #113 on: February 10, 2020, 07:24:41 AM »
The end of this decline is very near. How do we know for certain? Ken Moraif made his sell signal on December 14th. He has a knack for selling low and buying back in higher. He has done this 3 times since 2010.

Haha.  I don't know Ken Moraif, but looking at the stock market prices this was spot on.  It continued dropping for 1 week after this before heading back to the moon. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #114 on: February 10, 2020, 08:23:43 AM »
....I felt I shouldn’t have been vaguely aware of the sky falling, as the first post seemed to indicate.

A year later it still doesn’t feel like the sky fell. I guess I really did miss something.

The sky is always falling. There is a 100% chance that someone will spout FUD about the stock market to you on any given day. Doesn't matter what is actually going on in the world. The vast majority of the time the sky doesn't actually fall. Once in a while it does and some FUDers think they are geniuses! ;-)

One of the key skills required to be a successful investor is learning to tune out the FUDers.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2020, 09:33:34 PM by Retire-Canada »

pecunia

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #115 on: February 10, 2020, 08:50:17 PM »
....I felt I shouldn’t have been vaguely aware of the sky falling, as the first post seemed to indicate.

A year later it still doesn’t feel like the sky fell. I guess I really did miss something.

The sky is always falling. There is a 100% chance that some will spout FUD about the stock market to you on any given day. Doesn't matter what is actually going on in the world. The vast majority of the time the sky doesn't actually fall. Once in a while it does and some FUDers think they are geniuses! ;-)

One of the key skills required to be a successful investor is learning to tune out the FUDers.

I like that!  It is optimism.  Good advise for more than just the stock market.

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: So we're basically on track for a bear market by tomorrow?
« Reply #116 on: February 12, 2020, 02:29:14 AM »
I love reading these threads after the fact. You couldn't have sold at a worse time. Market has gone straight up 38% not including dividends since 12/20/2018.
"80% of timers fail over any reasonable period of time." -- Mark Hulbert