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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: FIRE47 on November 08, 2016, 07:19:55 PM

Title: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: FIRE47 on November 08, 2016, 07:19:55 PM
Good buying opportunity tomorrow or is Trump the end of America?
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: boognish on November 08, 2016, 07:34:48 PM
ffs
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: sol on November 08, 2016, 08:25:25 PM
It's still early.  Trump is radically outperforming every election forecast thus far, though.  That might be a result of uneven precinct reporting, or it might be a sign that Americans genuinely want to throw in the towel.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: hoping2retire35 on November 08, 2016, 08:50:07 PM
markets did the same thing with brexit, don't panic mustachians.

be sensible, be yourselves.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: TheAnonOne on November 08, 2016, 08:50:20 PM
Sp500 Futures are down 5%, BUY BUY BUY

(Whenever your regular contributions go in)
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: syednaeemul on November 08, 2016, 08:51:50 PM
Aussie here, ASX has gone down 3% in the space of 1 hour (particularly after Ohio was coloured red) and it triggered my purchasing of a few shares. I'm guessing the down market will last 2-3 days before the world decides to go back to normal?
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Another Reader on November 08, 2016, 08:57:34 PM
I am not at all surprised at the strength of his vote.  Many middle class people are very angry about what has happened to them over the last 10 years.  The "last chance for America" pitch hits home.  And Hilary is widely hated. I was surprised at all the people I know that don't really care about character, they just want things "fixed."  They are voting for Trump, no matter what.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Lagom on November 08, 2016, 09:28:20 PM
Well, as long as Trump doesn't end civilization as we know it, I suppose I can at least look forward to some nice market turmoil to help out my next few accumulation years. Other than that small silver lining, I'll be thrilled to be proven wrong if Trump overcomes all odds and is anything other than a disgrace, but I'm not holding my breath.

 
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Jaguar Paw on November 08, 2016, 09:39:51 PM
Timing the market is a bad idea.... But when the market crashes if Trump wins, it's a super time to throw some extra money in there.... right?
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: beastykato on November 08, 2016, 09:42:40 PM
Hell ya!  Great opportunity and much better than the Clintons getting back in there.   No more Obamacare rates doubling and freebies.  If he can get 10% of this liberal and socialist mess fixed I'll be happy. 

Not over yet though lots of dumb people for Hillary.

Sincerely,
Middle Class American
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: mastrr on November 08, 2016, 09:46:35 PM
If the market tanks I'm putting extra money in without a doubt
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: geekette on November 08, 2016, 10:13:21 PM
So how many millions will again go without insurance?  LGBT rights reversed?  Trade wars?  Hate?  This guy is so thin skinned his campaign had to take away his twitter access.  He's going on trial for racketeering later this month.  Oh, and there's that rape trial.  Yeah, let's give him the football.

I'm not fine with that.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: beastykato on November 08, 2016, 10:19:24 PM
I am.  It's not my responsibility to carry those people.  lGBT is fine with me, people can be who they want to be and love who they want.  Blacks and Hispanics can make the same money as me.  Hell, even Muslims can come here if they do so legally. 

For those without insurance....get a job like I have had to do since I was 16 in a poverty stricken SW PA.

It's not the middle classes job to carry bums.  That's why you're seeing this vote. And the Dems had to beg I mean BEG minorities to their side. 

There is still a chance this is all a curtain they will pull back and Hillary makes an amazing come back tho.  I think some of you act like Trump is just gonna take us back to the dark ages.

Oh and trade wars?! Yes, definitely my company moved to the Netherlands recently; put tariffs on everything and lower our business and trade taxes so our companies stop leaving.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: fattest_foot on November 09, 2016, 07:09:39 AM
In the other thread, I said:

I feel like everyone sees this as a buying opportunity due to Brexit, and no one wants to miss it.

How solid are overnight futures? Is this a situation where it bounces back by the morning and it doesn't work?

Looks like I was right. The futures were only down 190 by the end of the night (well, morning). This won't be the opportunity that Brexit was, since everyone's seen it before and doesn't want to miss out.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Retire-Canada on November 09, 2016, 07:33:14 AM
Trump won. Unreal and sad, but there it is. I'll be buying today if markets panic. You have to get on with life.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: ImCheap on November 09, 2016, 08:36:42 AM
The VIX should be interesting the next 4 years!
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: soccerluvof4 on November 09, 2016, 08:52:02 AM
So far the Market seems un-changed for the most part but we will see how the day plays out. But that 800 point drop? which is really small in itself is looking less and less likely. Personally i am waiting for a 15%-20% drop from the highs to put additional funds in other than typical adds I presently make.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: MichaelB on November 09, 2016, 08:56:20 AM
Response so far has been surprisingly chill. Asian markets got hammered, but European ones are up a bit. American markets certainly aren't acting like they've experienced the biggest "holy shit" political moment since...at least my lifetime.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: MichaelB on November 09, 2016, 09:30:23 AM
Response so far has been surprisingly chill. Asian markets got hammered, but European ones are up a bit. American markets certainly aren't acting like they've experienced the biggest "holy shit" political moment since...at least my lifetime.

It's almost like people just don't know what to make of it.  The big drop overnight was a sign that no one is sure what to do--run away or stand pat.  Stand pat seems to be winning today.  I'm not sure what people will be saying tomorrow or the next day.  Although I can't predict what will happen next, that complacency made me think the cheap protection was worth it.  I'm not selling anything, but I did buy some protection from a break down.

I'm surprised. I fully expected a Brexit-type sell-off/buying opportunity today. I'm guessing that it's a combination of having the evening to process the shock before trading started, plus being assuaged by his conciliatory victory speech (by far the most presidential moment of his whole campaign), and remembering that the original Brexit bounced right back and really didn't have any immediate short term consequences.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: beastykato on November 09, 2016, 09:37:54 AM
I'm surprised as well.   I definitely expected more movement out of this.  Apparently, it's not as much of a surprise as it might have seemed.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Retire-Canada on November 09, 2016, 09:50:37 AM
My main ETFs are up this morning 0.5% - 1.8% - no deals to be had.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: MasterStache on November 09, 2016, 10:00:40 AM
Currently the DOW is up about 200. So much for the overnight crash. Geesh
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: catccc on November 09, 2016, 10:42:37 AM
what's the middle class so mad about from the last 8 years?  I'm in the middle of the middle class, and I think the last 8 years have been great!  I'm not trying to start a debate, I genuinely want to know what they are upset about.

FWIW, I've had life changes that have strengthened my family's tax position.  I got married to a low income earner, and we had 2 kids.  We do just fine...
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: fattest_foot on November 09, 2016, 11:32:38 AM
I'm surprised as well.   I definitely expected more movement out of this.  Apparently, it's not as much of a surprise as it might have seemed.

I'm not sure where the idea that a Trump presidency means economic ruin for us? Is it just because people need a villain? He just ran for President, not for "country-ruiner." It's like people want the country to be in ruins at the end of 4 years so they can say "I told you so!"

That said, I would expect a significant market decline in December as the Fed finally starts raising interest rates now that the election is over.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: catccc on November 09, 2016, 12:06:53 PM
I'm not sure where the idea that a Trump presidency means economic ruin for us?

I think people are worried that he'll be protectionist and get into trade wars with other countries, bringing the volume of commerce down and triggering a global recession.  They're also worried he will destroy NATO and other alliances because of some of the things he has said, which could destabilize the international scene.  Hopefully he won't do these things, but those are some of the worries.  Also--there is a debate about how to divide up the economic pie and some people think too little is going to workers and too much is going to investors.  When a populist is elected there is a worry amongst capitalists that it means some kind of redistribution is coming in some way.

All in all, Trump is viewed as potentially disruptive whereas Clinton was viewed as maintaining status quo.  Maybe we need disruption, but stockholders get nervous over the uncertainty. 

In any case, I think we're all wishing Trump the best in leading this country, whether we voted for him or not.  As a big investor I'm certainly hoping he can drive growth and further prosperity raising all ships.

to add to this... not my area of expertise at all, but doesn't his tax proposal cut federal tax revenues by huge (4.5T.  T!) dollars?  That's going to mean more debt for the US, that can't be good, right?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/candidate-plans-national-debt/
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: catccc on November 09, 2016, 12:42:03 PM
doesn't his tax proposal cut federal tax revenues by huge dollars? 

I assume you mean "yuge" dollars?  :)


lol.  thanks for the laugh, much needed today, between election results, a disrespectful 8 year old this morning, and some setbacks at work...
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: MasterStache on November 09, 2016, 12:44:18 PM
I'm not sure where the idea that a Trump presidency means economic ruin for us?

I think people are worried that he'll be protectionist and get into trade wars with other countries, bringing the volume of commerce down and triggering a global recession.  They're also worried he will destroy NATO and other alliances because of some of the things he has said, which could destabilize the international scene.  Hopefully he won't do these things, but those are some of the worries.  Also--there is a debate about how to divide up the economic pie and some people think too little is going to workers and too much is going to investors.  When a populist is elected there is a worry amongst capitalists that it means some kind of redistribution is coming in some way.

All in all, Trump is viewed as potentially disruptive whereas Clinton was viewed as maintaining status quo.  Maybe we need disruption, but stockholders get nervous over the uncertainty. 

In any case, I think we're all wishing Trump the best in leading this country, whether we voted for him or not.  As a big investor I'm certainly hoping he can drive growth and further prosperity raising all ships.

Well said. I am very anti-Trump but I have my fingers crossed that things will work out. I'll add as well he intends to really disrupt our energy policies. Abolish the EPA, get rid of renewable energy subsidies and focus more on fossil fuels. America is already falling drastically behind other developed nations in clean energy production and investments. Trump's proposals would wipe out decades of progress.

In market news, the Dow is now up over 250 points. Wow!!
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Retire-Canada on November 09, 2016, 01:27:28 PM
In market news, the Dow is now up over 250 points. Wow!!

My investments are up bigly time today! ;)
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: syednaeemul on November 09, 2016, 02:29:10 PM
The New Zealand Stock Exchange was down 3.9%, and today morning it's already up 3.8%.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: fattest_foot on November 09, 2016, 04:17:18 PM
to add to this... not my area of expertise at all, but doesn't his tax proposal cut federal tax revenues by huge (4.5T.  T!) dollars?  That's going to mean more debt for the US, that can't be good, right?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/candidate-plans-national-debt/

Luckily, budgets fall under Congress.

I still haven't quite figured out why candidates even put out a budget proposal. Tradition maybe? I'm not sure how far you'd have to go back (if ever) to find a Congress that kept a Presidential proposal mostly intact.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: bacchi on November 09, 2016, 05:50:53 PM
He could, on day 1,

* Kill NAFTA with a 6 month notice. He has stated that he'll do this.
* Impose tariffs on Chinese imports. He has threatened to do this.
* Kill the ACA subsidies. This is the Republican dream.

So, yeah, his policies could affect a lot of companies who do business in Mexico, Canada, and China. Note that even a small tariff would mean that China imposes their own tariff on US imports. It's not a one-way street.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: bacchi on November 09, 2016, 05:53:32 PM
The VIX should be interesting the next 4 years!

This will be one boon for me, personally. My system thrives in high vol.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Metric Mouse on November 09, 2016, 07:28:53 PM
Well said. I am very anti-Trump but I have my fingers crossed that things will work out. I'll add as well he intends to really disrupt our energy policies. Abolish the EPA, get rid of renewable energy subsidies and focus more on fossil fuels. America is already falling drastically behind other developed nations in clean energy production and investments. Trump's proposals would wipe out decades of progress.


On the flip side, America is drastically beating other developed nations on the price of energy - low prices are extremely helpful to low-income families and manufacturing industries, among others.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: catccc on November 10, 2016, 08:04:54 AM
The VIX should be interesting the next 4 years!

This will be one boon for me, personally. My system thrives in high vol.

Well I'm curious.  Can you tell us more about your system?
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Kaspian on November 10, 2016, 08:30:12 AM
It's been my observation that uncertainty lowers the markets far more than political reality.  That's why we see it bounce back so quickly--even after the unexpected result of the uncertainty (e.g., Brexit.)  The market will likely go down in the day(s) leading to Yellen's rate announcement in December but go right back up afterwards--whether the decision is to  raise interest rates or leave them the same.  It's funny that the anticipation has more effect than the final result.   :/  Anyway...  An excuse to time the market?   Probably not.  If you can scrounge together a couple of bucks to throw in though, it has been proven that "buying the dips" sort of works--just don't bet the farm on it.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: talltexan on November 10, 2016, 08:57:44 AM
I had the benefit of sitting through a briefing on the Trump economy at work yesterday. There were three major economic pieces considered:

1. Reduction in immigration/deportation of some workers (shrinks economy, diverts resources into law enforcement)
2. Tax Cuts (grows economy, perhaps leads to high inflation/bond yields long-term because of increasing debt)
3. Trade Barriers (raises prices of imports, shrinks global economy, decreases exports to extent that there is retaliation)
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Scandium on November 10, 2016, 10:14:12 AM
doesn't his tax proposal cut federal tax revenues by huge dollars? 

I assume you mean "yuge" dollars?  :)

That's going to mean more debt for the US, that can't be good, right?

maybe.  adding debt might be good if the debt is used to pay for infrastructure projects that facilitate growth at a higher rate than the borrowing cost of the debt... one complaint by the CBs has been that governments aren't doing their part on the fiscal side to reflate the economy.  If used to build a wall that doesn't really keep people out anyway... eh, not so much.

He has also stated he'll eliminate the deficit. So if we take him at his word and he's to keep that and spending promises he will have to basically eliminate the federal government, except military (which he want to grow) and I assume ICE (because mexicans..).
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/3/13121510/trump-clinton-tax-plan-cartoon

Tax cuts for the richest, elimination of all government services and a trade war doubling the cost of pretty much everything in the stores? Yeah I think that would be pretty close to disaster. Near total economic collapse or a decade long recession. Whether the republican congress will let  him do anything except the first is of course the issue, but this what he has stated he wants to do.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Retire-Canada on November 10, 2016, 10:33:16 AM
One of the few benefits I can think of for Trump being elected is that he actually has to deliver something now and not just spout bullshit. It may be a long 4yrs, but next time folks are at the polls he'll have to defend his actual record of achievements. 
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Scandium on November 10, 2016, 11:02:30 AM
One of the few benefits I can think of for Trump being elected is that he actually has to deliver something now and not just spout bullshit. It may be a long 4yrs, but next time folks are at the polls he'll have to defend his actual record of achievements.

He seemed to do quite well only spewing provable bullshit throughout this whole campaign so I wouldn't hold my breath. That's the benefit of conditioning people to view fact equal to opinion, and fact checking as liberal bias. When media reports "facts" is just liberal lies. Just check breitbart and reelect our white savior.. It worked so well I'm sure he'll double down on the lies and hate the next time.

That said I do have some hope Trump will achieve none of his promises and his hateful supporters continue to stew in their miserable opioid addiction lives. They brought this upon us so now reap what they sowed. But they would probably still reelect him

MOD EDIT: We're better than this.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Space Pickle on November 10, 2016, 04:30:07 PM
Pro: VFV is up!

Con: May not live to enjoy retirement.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: bacchi on November 10, 2016, 05:07:46 PM
The VIX should be interesting the next 4 years!

This will be one boon for me, personally. My system thrives in high vol.

Well I'm curious.  Can you tell us more about your system?

I sell vertical spreads. High vol means that option prices are higher.

If the market is dull, and VIX is around 10, it becomes difficult to make money picking up nickels in front of the steam roller.* I have to get too close to the steam roller for my comfort.


* The steam roller generally moves at a slow speed in a limited range. Occasionally, it will slip gears and accelerate, surprising and crushing anything in its path.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: triangle on November 10, 2016, 05:47:58 PM
While I am not a supporter of his style, I think a good percentage of his detractors misread his posturing and language, taking him literally instead of seriously.  Fearing the worse in him while ignoring the same in their favorite candidates. 

I was hoping to buy the dip after the futures fail so much on election night, but looks like the traders/algorithms kicked in. Expecting/hoping that a Brexit style dip would settle in for a few days but since everyone was predicting that, then of course the opposite happened.  I wonder if this rally will reverse in a few weeks.  Most of the experts in the political and financial arena got this week all wrong. I wonder if Mark Cuban has taken off his hedges.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: One Noisy Cat on November 10, 2016, 06:50:35 PM
what's the middle class so mad about from the last 8 years?  I'm in the middle of the middle class, and I think the last 8 years have been great!  I'm not trying to start a debate, I genuinely want to know what they are upset about.

FWIW, I've had life changes that have strengthened my family's tax position.  I got married to a low income earner, and we had 2 kids.  We do just fine...

The median income is down
Number of people on food stamps has increased by 13 million
Lowest percentage of adults in the workforce in 40 years
Lowest rate of home ownership in 50 years
Skyrocketing medical costs
Skyrocketing college debts
Mealy mouth talk when Islamic terrorists kill 49 homosexuals in Florida
Importing Syrian refugees without proper screening while Saudi Arabia lectures the USA to do so and
      allows none into the birthplace of Islam
No one prosecuted in banking scandals as compared to Reagan years when crooks like Charles Keating
      went to jail.
Refusal to police borders as required by law, giving illegals benefits. Many cities refuse to depart (let's
      see what happens if a public facility tries to institute school prayer or Christmas decorations)
Constant lectures that if you disagree with them you are automatically racist, sexist or homophobic


There is a lot about Trump I don't like. Yes he is crude. But the Democrats made him possible by savagely attacking more decent men like Bush, McCain and Romney. Some kind of pushback was inevitable...and it's interesting that the riots, beating of people, teachers walking out of class (yup, we really care about teaching) never happened when Obama or Clinto were elected.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: sol on November 10, 2016, 07:41:11 PM
The median income is down
Number of people on food stamps has increased by 13 million
Lowest percentage of adults in the workforce in 40 years
Lowest rate of home ownership in 50 years
Skyrocketing medical costs
Skyrocketing college debts
Mealy mouth talk when Islamic terrorists kill 49 homosexuals in Florida
Importing Syrian refugees without proper screening while Saudi Arabia lectures the USA to do so and
      allows none into the birthplace of Islam
No one prosecuted in banking scandals as compared to Reagan years when crooks like Charles Keating
      went to jail.
Refusal to police borders as required by law, giving illegals benefits. Many cities refuse to depart (let's
      see what happens if a public facility tries to institute school prayer or Christmas decorations)
Constant lectures that if you disagree with them you are automatically racist, sexist or homophobic

This post is a little off base.  Median incomes have been dropping since the 1970s, you can hardly blame Obama for that.  The number of people on foodstamps is rising because we've been gradually lowering the income requirements to qualify, so as to lift more people out of poverty.  Home ownership rates were up wildly under Clinton and Bush, which is part of what caused the RE bubble.  Medical costs are skyrocketing due to the insurance industry ripping people off because the government refuses to regulate them appropriately.

I could go on, but I think you get the point.  Your list of grievances isn't about Obama, or even democrats in general, or even government in general.  Claiming the past 8 years caused any of that is a big disingenuous, don't you think?

Some kind of pushback was inevitable...

Some people have suggested to me that America was destined to elect a white supremacist as pushback against a black president, too, but I'm not sure that theory holds water either.  The people don't just demand something different, they demand something better.  In this case, I don't think they got their wish.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Metric Mouse on November 10, 2016, 08:25:49 PM

That said I do have some hope Trump will achieve none of his promises and his hateful supporters continue to stew in their miserable opioid addiction lives. They brought this upon us so now reap what they sowed. But they would probably still reelect him

Yah know, Bush was elected twice. Obama was elected twice. Kinda seems like all of their supporters were pretty happy, even though they achieved few of their promises and their supporters had to stew in their own misery.  I can only imagine that the Hillary supporters will be that much more miserable than the Trump voters for the next four years.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Laserjet3051 on November 12, 2016, 11:32:51 AM
One of the few benefits I can think of for Trump being elected is that he actually has to deliver something now and not just spout bullshit. It may be a long 4yrs, but next time folks are at the polls he'll have to defend his actual record of achievements.



That said I do have some hope Trump will achieve none of his promises and his hateful supporters continue to stew in their miserable opioid addiction lives. They brought this upon us so now reap what they sowed. But they would probably still reelect him

This inaccurate, broad stroke, stereotype only serves to further entrench the divisive divide exploding nationwide. Personally, my close family, friends, and self, who did not vote for HRC are neither hateful, miserable, or take any opioids. Our concerns over the future of this nation are no less, no more, valid than yours.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: sol on November 12, 2016, 12:05:31 PM
This inaccurate, broad stroke, stereotype only serves to further entrench the divisive divide exploding nationwide.

Do you see the irony in this?  Trump ran a campaign based on divisiveness.  Every theme of his Presidency is based on dividing people, from casting Obama as a foreigner to banning Muslims from a country based on religious freedom to building a literal wall to divide people from each other. 

It's not being divisive to point out that Trump appealed to people's most racist and sexist sides.  It's not reverse bigotry to point out that bigotry is bad.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Crushtheturtle on November 12, 2016, 12:56:53 PM
This inaccurate, broad stroke, stereotype only serves to further entrench the divisive divide exploding nationwide.

Do you see the irony in this?  Trump ran a campaign based on divisiveness.  Every theme of his Presidency is based on dividing people, from casting Obama as a foreigner to banning Muslims from a country based on religious freedom to building a literal wall to divide people from each other. 

It's not being divisive to point out that Trump appealed to people's most racist and sexist sides.  It's not reverse bigotry to point out that bigotry is bad.

You might be projecting. Not everyone assumes that disagreement = bigotry.

President Trump's policies make sense in our current climate of global terrorism. Terrorists can be assumed likely to come from certain regions. Also, it seems strange to have a southern border immigration control policy that is less strict than that which is enforced in both Canada and Mexico. President Trump is less concerned with Political Correctness and more concerned with security, and that is something we can all get behind.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Space Pickle on November 12, 2016, 01:11:16 PM
Quote
Terrorists can be assumed likely to come from certain regions.

Timothy McVeigh
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Crushtheturtle on November 12, 2016, 01:33:13 PM
Quote
Terrorists can be assumed likely to come from certain regions.

Timothy McVeigh

Definitely let's not welcome any more disciples of that guy, or people who worship at his mosque.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: sol on November 12, 2016, 01:33:49 PM
You might be projecting. Not everyone assumes that disagreement = bigotry.

Everyone?  Of course not.  The poster who accused democrats of being divisive because they haven't all fallen in line behind Trump?  That person is being a little hypocritical.

Quote
Also, it seems strange to have a southern border immigration control policy that is less strict than that which is enforced in both Canada and Mexico.

WTF?  Our southern border is WAY more tightly controlled than what either Canada or Mexico have.  In some places, you can drive into Canada without even slowing down.  The US spends billions of dollars per year on border security, far more than what Canada and Mexico spend put together.  Obama forcibly deported more immigrants in 8 years than every previous US President deported in the entire 20th century combined.  I think our border control policy is more strict than every border on Earth not currently involved in a war.  Even the fucking Israelis let Palestinians into their country.

I know that doesn't fit Trump's narrative.  He convinced people that Obama was actually welcoming terrorists into the country, rather than deporting illegal immigrants at a record pace.  News flash: Trump lied to you.  He lied to you about the border just like he lied to you about manufacturing jobs and Obama's birth certificate and virtually everything else.  He's a professional con man who has spent his entire life getting rich by robbing America, and this is going to be his most profitable con yet. 

I'm really trying to see the bright side here.  He might not just rubber stamp everything Mitch McConnel and Paul Ryan want to do.  He might actually try to improve health insurance.  He might help the Republicans actually work toward something, rather than just against everything.  But so far, everything he's done has been accomplished by dividing America, not making it stronger.  He successfully stoked racist fear of brown people to turn out the white vote.  He publicly insulted veterans and their families, minorities, disabled people, women.  His entire convention was about how Americans need to hate and fear each other.  He represents everything America is supposed to stand against, so I'm really struggling to see the bright side of this election. 
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Lagom on November 12, 2016, 02:00:32 PM
Well stated Sol, although don't hold your breath on a reasonable rebuttal. I've started trying to keep track of things Trump supporters completely ignore or create rather ludicrous justifications for in these threads, presumably because they cause too much cognitive dissonance. Much easier to continue with the "bla bla Bill was a misogynist too, bla bla emails, she's a warmonger, bla bla, democrats are hypocrites for protesting," etc.).

1) Explicit audio quotes from their candidate where he race-baits, condones violence, dehumanizes women, insults veterans, etc., etc.
1a) Related evidence that hate groups worldwide are celebrating the election and already making some moves to more publicly practice their loathsome views.
2) Any discussion of Trump's top advisors and potential cabinet appointees (most of whom are the worst kind of extremists) and the fact that Trump has made statements to the effect that he will give them (especially Pence) unusual authority.
3) Inarguable evidence (as mentioned by Sol) that Obama has done better (worse, from my perspective) than any past president on things like harsh measures towards terrorism (hooray drones!), strict illegal immigration controls, etc.

I'm sure I'm missing plenty, but as an open challenge to Trump supporters who managed to read this without their brain exploding, please feel free to rebut thoughtfully.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Rockies on November 15, 2016, 09:14:09 PM
Here is an interesting perspective from Ray Dalio about Trump (from Bridgewater Capital, a very large hedge fund if you are unaware). Not a big fan of active management, but I do believe Dalio has a strong understanding of how the economic system and how government and fiscal policy influence it.

He predicts "1) decreasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness, 2) aggressively stimulative fiscal policies, and 3) increased US growth, higher inflation, and rising bond yields."

The full article is here any thoughts?:
http://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-bridgewater-on-trump-presidency-2016-11?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=referral (http://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-bridgewater-on-trump-presidency-2016-11?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=referral)
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: aspiringnomad on November 15, 2016, 09:37:53 PM
Here is an interesting perspective from Ray Dalio about Trump (from Bridgewater Capital, a very large hedge fund if you are unaware). Not a big fan of active management, but I do believe Dalio has a strong understanding of how the economic system and how government and fiscal policy influence it.

He predicts "1) decreasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness, 2) aggressively stimulative fiscal policies, and 3) increased US growth, higher inflation, and rising bond yields."

The full article is here any thoughts?:
http://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-bridgewater-on-trump-presidency-2016-11?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=referral (http://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-bridgewater-on-trump-presidency-2016-11?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=referral)

Didn't read the article (sorry), but your summary is essentially just the prevailing wisdom of market participants at the moment, which makes me think that at least one of the predictions won't play out long term.
Title: Re: So it looks like Trump is about to win?
Post by: Rockies on November 17, 2016, 06:51:13 PM
I agree it's very likely one or many of those predictions will be wrong. If you look at other predictions Ray Dalio has made he is often wrong and often right, but none the less I know he is more knowledgeable about macro economics than me so its interesting to hear what he has to say.

Heres another interesting perspective from Bill Gross on the whole thing. He expects long term return on equities to be 3-5% for the next while as " The Wall Street, finance-led hegemon is fading. The Populist sunrise has barely broken the horizon.":

https://www.janus.com/insights/bill-gross-investment-outlook (https://www.janus.com/insights/bill-gross-investment-outlook)