I bought about 12.5k worth of the Vanguard energy index fund back in February when oil was at 25/bbl. Now that oil is pushing 50/bbl the fund is up about 35-40%. Taking tax out of the equation I would sell now because I think there isn't much more upside in the fund (at least in the short/medium term). However, I would then be hit with about 4-5k in short-term capital gains taxes, which is about 33% (ordinary income rates). If I wait until February 2017 I would be able to sell and pay a lower long-term capital gains rate of about 20%.
So, my question is whether 13% in tax differential is worth waiting until February or whether I should lock in my gains now?