Author Topic: Self confessed market timer goes all in!  (Read 4664 times)

xander

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Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« on: January 22, 2020, 03:03:08 PM »
About a year and a half ago I foolishly pulled out of the market in both my Voya 401k and my Vanguard brokerage account. My inexperience in investing got the better of me and I started getting recession jitters. What I thought was a smart move was clearly wrong.

It took a long time to get over this psychological hump preventing me from pulling the trigger but this morning I did it!! A weight has been lifted from my shoulders as it's been on my mind for so long.

Between both accounts I moved $200k from money market to portfolios that are "moderately aggressive". (I'm 31). Contributions are on autopilot and I'm not looking back. Hell I might end up being the world's worst market timer, and that's ok. No more obsessing over market fluctuations and no more selling. I've accepted the errors of my ways and the earnings I missed out on.

Time to move on and let the market do it's thing. Cheers!

BECABECA

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2020, 03:39:03 PM »
Props for owning up to it and congrats on taking the step to correct it! Welcome to the side of making decisions based on the math. It’s much less stressful over here!

RobertFromTX

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2020, 04:27:47 PM »
Any time I feel like my emotions are creeping in and might have an influence over my decision making, I always read through this chart and have an honest assessment of what my emotions are saying to me.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2020, 04:30:46 PM by RobertFromTX »

vand

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2020, 10:25:18 AM »
uh oh. Last bear has turned bull. The top really is in now.

terran

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2020, 11:39:28 AM »
If all you've moved out/in is $200k this was a cheap lesson -- as long as it sticks.

UnleashHell

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2020, 11:41:02 AM »
Thorstach? Is that you. Is the top in?

Brother Esau

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2020, 01:45:29 PM »
How foolish. Didn't you know that Top Is In?

BECABECA

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2020, 05:40:30 PM »
Contributions are on autopilot and I'm not looking back.

No more obsessing over market fluctuations and no more selling.

I've accepted the errors of my ways and the earnings I missed out on.

@Brother Esau @UnleashHell @vand It seems you just read the title and missed the point of this post. OP has learned their lesson on market timing and has made the change to not do it anymore. Congrats are in order, not teasing them about the top being in. Unless you want them to go back to trying to time the market??

UnleashHell

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2020, 04:19:58 AM »
Contributions are on autopilot and I'm not looking back.

No more obsessing over market fluctuations and no more selling.

I've accepted the errors of my ways and the earnings I missed out on.

@Brother Esau @UnleashHell @vand It seems you just read the title and missed the point of this post. OP has learned their lesson on market timing and has made the change to not do it anymore. Congrats are in order, not teasing them about the top being in. Unless you want them to go back to trying to time the market??

@BECABECA thank you for telling us the error of our ways and how to post on the internet.




*note to self. make fun posts more obvious. like the op did with a smiley face. because there's always one who doesn't get it and decides to correct you.

Brother Esau

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2020, 05:30:10 AM »
Contributions are on autopilot and I'm not looking back.

No more obsessing over market fluctuations and no more selling.

I've accepted the errors of my ways and the earnings I missed out on.

@Brother Esau @UnleashHell @vand It seems you just read the title and missed the point of this post. OP has learned their lesson on market timing and has made the change to not do it anymore. Congrats are in order, not teasing them about the top being in. Unless you want them to go back to trying to time the market??

pbkmaine

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2020, 07:51:33 AM »
Fidelity Investments has a “chart room” in its headquarters in Boston. The best part of the room is its chart of stock market movements with magazine covers pasted at various points on the chart. Right before a peak, there’s always a cover telling people to buy big. Just after a low, there’s one warning people to stay out. People are just terrible at predicting market movements.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2020, 09:23:20 AM »
uh oh. Last bear has turned bull. The top really is in now.

Lol this.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2020, 12:03:51 PM »
If all you've moved out/in is $200k this was a cheap lesson -- as long as it sticks.

Since July 2018, the S&P is up 17.3%. So with $200k at stake that’s $34,685.

But the timing must have looked brilliant in December 2018 when OP had saved themself from a 14% ($28k) “loss”. It’s the 2nd decision of market timing that threw the OP, and will probably delayed their retirement a couple of years.

DeniseNJ

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2020, 12:33:11 PM »
Maybe last May when the DOW was at well over 26,000 I put in $20K.  Two minutes later it had dropped to 25,000 and then 24-something.  I just kept rereading invester Bob to keep my spirits up.  Didn't touch it and now it's just a tiny blip on a chart.

This next week might see a crash or a mild correction or a drop of 1,000.  Don't sweat it.  Just leave it.  It will be up to 30,000 in no time.  I also did the guided meditiation on JLCollins.  That helped.  Even if you just dumped $200K in at the all time high and it drops like a stone next week, just ride the wave.  It will be back up and you'll be rolling in dough.

xander

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2020, 12:48:15 PM »
If all you've moved out/in is $200k this was a cheap lesson -- as long as it sticks.

Since July 2018, the S&P is up 17.3%. So with $200k at stake that’s $34,685.

But the timing must have looked brilliant in December 2018 when OP had saved themself from a 14% ($28k) “loss”. It’s the 2nd decision of market timing that threw the OP, and will probably delayed their retirement a couple of years.

^This

Looking back at December of 2018 I felt like I had made a solid decision...however as the months rolled by..slowly but surely I realized this was not the case. When oh when would I buy back in?? This lesson has taught me that timing the market and always buying low selling high, as appealing as it may sound. Just isn't possible.





Btw, Top is in!

terran

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2020, 01:04:19 PM »
If all you've moved out/in is $200k this was a cheap lesson -- as long as it sticks.

Since July 2018, the S&P is up 17.3%. So with $200k at stake that’s $34,685.

But the timing must have looked brilliant in December 2018 when OP had saved themself from a 14% ($28k) “loss”. It’s the 2nd decision of market timing that threw the OP, and will probably delayed their retirement a couple of years.

Thanks for doing the math. Like I said, cheap as long as the lesson sticks. Much better to have done it now than when they have millions in the market.

UnleashHell

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2020, 01:17:12 PM »




Btw, Top is in!

HA!!

(looks at market)


Wait!!! That's not funny!

Brother Esau

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2020, 01:48:28 PM »




Btw, Top is in!

HA!!

(looks at market)


Wait!!! That's not funny!


See, thorstach was right all along. Just took almost 3 years for everyone to realize it. 

frugledoc

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #18 on: January 24, 2020, 01:51:43 PM »
I’m all in every day, welcome to the club

DeniseNJ

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #19 on: January 24, 2020, 01:56:11 PM »
I’m all in every day, welcome to the club

That's a good point.  I'm in too.  I have $500,000 in today and I'm not selling. 

BTDretire

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2020, 08:56:27 AM »

There is timing the market and then there's timing the market!

************************************************

I think you should wait until Monday to go all in!

****************************************

I blame today's market drop on xander!

*****************************************

$hit happens, hang in there, I made it through a 42% drop in 2008.

*****************************************



Cabaka

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2020, 09:52:08 AM »
About a year and a half ago I foolishly pulled out of the market in both my Voya 401k and my Vanguard brokerage account. My inexperience in investing got the better of me and I started getting recession jitters. What I thought was a smart move was clearly wrong.

It took a long time to get over this psychological hump preventing me from pulling the trigger but this morning I did it!! A weight has been lifted from my shoulders as it's been on my mind for so long.

Between both accounts I moved $200k from money market to portfolios that are "moderately aggressive". (I'm 31). Contributions are on autopilot and I'm not looking back. Hell I might end up being the world's worst market timer, and that's ok. No more obsessing over market fluctuations and no more selling. I've accepted the errors of my ways and the earnings I missed out on.

Time to move on and let the market do it's thing. Cheers!

you went all in with the mkt extremely overextended ? since 1970, the mkt has averaged two 1% declines per month or about every 9-trading days. Since October 2nd, 2018, there have been ZERO days consisting of a 1% decline.

not to mention a building virus from china.

overall, the trend is still long; but the "timing" was not very good.

Davnasty

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2020, 10:19:47 AM »
About a year and a half ago I foolishly pulled out of the market in both my Voya 401k and my Vanguard brokerage account. My inexperience in investing got the better of me and I started getting recession jitters. What I thought was a smart move was clearly wrong.

It took a long time to get over this psychological hump preventing me from pulling the trigger but this morning I did it!! A weight has been lifted from my shoulders as it's been on my mind for so long.

Between both accounts I moved $200k from money market to portfolios that are "moderately aggressive". (I'm 31). Contributions are on autopilot and I'm not looking back. Hell I might end up being the world's worst market timer, and that's ok. No more obsessing over market fluctuations and no more selling. I've accepted the errors of my ways and the earnings I missed out on.

Time to move on and let the market do it's thing. Cheers!

you went all in with the mkt extremely overextended ? since 1970, the mkt has averaged two 1% declines per month or about every 9-trading days. Since October 2nd, 2018, there have been ZERO days consisting of a 1% decline.

not to mention a building virus from china.

overall, the trend is still long; but the "timing" was not very good.

What is "mkt"? Because the S&P 500 has seen lots of 1% declines since 10/2/18, there's even been several days with >3% losses.

xander

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2020, 10:27:54 AM »

There is timing the market and then there's timing the market!

************************************************

I think you should wait until Monday to go all in!

****************************************

I blame today's market drop on xander!

*****************************************

$hit happens, hang in there, I made it through a 42% drop in 2008.

*****************************************

Too late it's a done deal.

This will just be a little blip on the radar. No biggie. :)

UnleashHell

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2020, 11:54:54 AM »
About a year and a half ago I foolishly pulled out of the market in both my Voya 401k and my Vanguard brokerage account. My inexperience in investing got the better of me and I started getting recession jitters. What I thought was a smart move was clearly wrong.

It took a long time to get over this psychological hump preventing me from pulling the trigger but this morning I did it!! A weight has been lifted from my shoulders as it's been on my mind for so long.

Between both accounts I moved $200k from money market to portfolios that are "moderately aggressive". (I'm 31). Contributions are on autopilot and I'm not looking back. Hell I might end up being the world's worst market timer, and that's ok. No more obsessing over market fluctuations and no more selling. I've accepted the errors of my ways and the earnings I missed out on.

Time to move on and let the market do it's thing. Cheers!

you went all in with the mkt extremely overextended ? since 1970, the mkt has averaged two 1% declines per month or about every 9-trading days. Since October 2nd, 2018, there have been ZERO days consisting of a 1% decline.

not to mention a building virus from china.

overall, the trend is still long; but the "timing" was not very good.

yeah - I call bull.


Oct-24-2018 s&p dropped 3.09%

thats just one and within a month of a date that you picked in order to try to prove something.
So no.

vand

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2020, 09:11:46 AM »
I think the OP needs to rename himself to "bob".

xander

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #26 on: January 31, 2020, 01:54:37 PM »
I think the OP needs to rename himself to "bob".

Well dang I think you're right.

Hello everyone, my name is Bob.

*Everyone in room replies* "Hello Bob"

ftsu21

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #27 on: January 31, 2020, 10:43:23 PM »
Well it goes without saying that market timing is hard. However I think it makes sense to look back and find what was the argument or evidence that made you think market would go under during 2019, or 2020 would do well. I wanted to do similar thing over a year ago, however I tried to find any trigger that's bigger enough to drag down the market and couldn't convince myself, hence I stayed in the market.

vand

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #28 on: March 18, 2020, 02:19:20 PM »
About a year and a half ago I foolishly pulled out of the market in both my Voya 401k and my Vanguard brokerage account. My inexperience in investing got the better of me and I started getting recession jitters. What I thought was a smart move was clearly wrong.

It took a long time to get over this psychological hump preventing me from pulling the trigger but this morning I did it!! A weight has been lifted from my shoulders as it's been on my mind for so long.

Between both accounts I moved $200k from money market to portfolios that are "moderately aggressive". (I'm 31). Contributions are on autopilot and I'm not looking back. Hell I might end up being the world's worst market timer, and that's ok. No more obsessing over market fluctuations and no more selling. I've accepted the errors of my ways and the earnings I missed out on.

Time to move on and let the market do it's thing. Cheers!

You realise this is ALL your fault right?!

xander

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #29 on: March 19, 2020, 06:40:59 PM »
You know I really do feel like I bought at the tippy top lol. I could not have timed that any worse.

Since this has unfolded though I have increased my contributions. Full steam ahead!

I am pondering putting my 25k of VBTLX and 5k of money market all into VTSAX. This dip has me wanting more shares. However I don't think we've bottomed out entirely.

Or perhaps buy 30k worth of stocks from the cruise line industry. Decisions decisions...

terran

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #30 on: March 19, 2020, 08:14:52 PM »
I am pondering putting my 25k of VBTLX and 5k of money market all into VTSAX. This dip has me wanting more shares. However I don't think we've bottomed out entirely.

So what you're saying is you're trying to time the market. Again.

nsmall

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #31 on: March 19, 2020, 09:49:27 PM »
Xander, we are all down a bunch.  How about 15k into VTSAX now and just hang onto the other 15k and DONT even think about the cruise line stocks. 

xander

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #32 on: March 19, 2020, 10:58:25 PM »
I am pondering putting my 25k of VBTLX and 5k of money market all into VTSAX. This dip has me wanting more shares. However I don't think we've bottomed out entirely.

So what you're saying is you're trying to time the market. Again.

Is reallocating a percentage during a dip considered market timing?

It just seems there are lots of opportunities now that things are on sale.

As nsmall said dabbling with those stocks is probably unwise lol

MoneyGoatee

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #33 on: March 19, 2020, 11:26:12 PM »
I am pondering putting my 25k of VBTLX and 5k of money market all into VTSAX. This dip has me wanting more shares. However I don't think we've bottomed out entirely.

So what you're saying is you're trying to time the market. Again.

If there is enough duration and depth to this recession, then timing the market will be made easier by watching the 100-day average, or 200-day average if you are more conservative.  I did the same thing back in 2008-2009.  This is increasingly becoming another historic downturn that will last several months.  The longer it drags on, the more predictive the 100- or 200-day average will become.

MoneyGoatee

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #34 on: March 19, 2020, 11:30:15 PM »
About a year and a half ago I foolishly pulled out of the market in both my Voya 401k and my Vanguard brokerage account. My inexperience in investing got the better of me and I started getting recession jitters. What I thought was a smart move was clearly wrong.

It took a long time to get over this psychological hump preventing me from pulling the trigger but this morning I did it!! A weight has been lifted from my shoulders as it's been on my mind for so long.

Between both accounts I moved $200k from money market to portfolios that are "moderately aggressive". (I'm 31). Contributions are on autopilot and I'm not looking back. Hell I might end up being the world's worst market timer, and that's ok. No more obsessing over market fluctuations and no more selling. I've accepted the errors of my ways and the earnings I missed out on.

Time to move on and let the market do it's thing. Cheers!

When you sold 1.5 years ago, what was the realized loss?  If it was negligble, it was no big loss because the market is now down to where it was almost 4 years ago, giving you another opportunity to buy.

moof

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #35 on: March 20, 2020, 12:04:12 AM »
I am pondering putting my 25k of VBTLX and 5k of money market all into VTSAX. This dip has me wanting more shares. However I don't think we've bottomed out entirely.

So what you're saying is you're trying to time the market. Again.

Is reallocating a percentage during a dip considered market timing?

It just seems there are lots of opportunities now that things are on sale.

As nsmall said dabbling with those stocks is probably unwise lol

I was 80/20’ish going into the dive.  Then the market made it 70/30’ish, so I just moved about 12% from bonds to stocks.  If it drops much more I’ll go 100% stocks.  I am a market time I guess.

vand

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #36 on: March 20, 2020, 02:56:24 AM »
I don't personally consider changing your AA to be market timing, although there is an element of that about it.  I see it as accepting more or less risk as the expected return on different asset classes change in relation to one another.

If you take on the same exposure and risk when your expected return is 12% that you do when your expected return is 2% then you're a crap investor.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #37 on: March 20, 2020, 03:05:15 AM »
I am pondering putting my 25k of VBTLX and 5k of money market all into VTSAX. This dip has me wanting more shares. However I don't think we've bottomed out entirely.
So what you're saying is you're trying to time the market. Again.
Is reallocating a percentage during a dip considered market timing?
You're changing your asset allocation (AA) based on a market dip, that sounds like market timing.
Changing your AA according to your personal circumstances and needs does not.

vand

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #38 on: March 21, 2020, 04:29:37 AM »
Now if the OP can just be sure to let us know when he's sold back out, I'll be sure to remortgage the house and pile it ALL IN.

TomTX

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #39 on: March 21, 2020, 06:33:36 AM »
Any time I feel like my emotions are creeping in and might have an influence over my decision making, I always read through this chart and have an honest assessment of what my emotions are saying to me.


This is awesome. You posted this at #1 on the chart, and we've progressed to maybe #8. Kudos!

vand

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Re: Self confessed market timer goes all in!
« Reply #40 on: March 21, 2020, 07:53:38 AM »
Any time I feel like my emotions are creeping in and might have an influence over my decision making, I always read through this chart and have an honest assessment of what my emotions are saying to me.


This is awesome. You posted this at #1 on the chart, and we've progressed to maybe #8. Kudos!

#1? I would say he timed it at point #3 or #4. Takes a special kind of superpower to get within 2% of the top of a 12 year bull market.