Author Topic: Safer investment ideas for 8 years?  (Read 997 times)

Otterwins

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Safer investment ideas for 8 years?
« on: June 03, 2022, 07:30:41 AM »
I'm an educator with 8 more years until retirement. I'm trying to save as much as possible (making up for lost time due to medical debt). I have about $60,000 in a money market account (0%) that needs to be moved into a decent interest rate (to at least combat inflation). I also want to add about $2,000 a month to this account while I chunk $6,000 into my yearly Roth IRA.

Back in January, I was advised here to move it into VTSAX, but I got nervous and held. Now reading about the "hurricane" coming...should I rethink this strategy since I only have 8ish years?

I'm planning to invest $10,000 into the Series I bond at 9.62%. 

Are there other places like this that may have more of a safer outcome? (I don't need to touch the money for 8-10 years.) I'd rather earn less interest and make sure I don't suddenly drop by 40% like in 2008. Thanks!

RWD

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Re: Safer investment ideas for 8 years?
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2022, 08:50:28 AM »
After 8-10 years will you start moving the funds into equities? What if equities are significantly more expensive then than today (statistically very likely)? If you're not comfortable with equities today I have a hard time imagining how you'll keep up with inflation in retirement.

And good grief, only $60k? Losing 40% of that would be peanuts over a decade-long time frame.

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harvestbook

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Re: Safer investment ideas for 8 years?
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2022, 09:38:25 AM »
I think people make a mistake targeting one specific future date for an AA. It's not like we cash out and spend all our money the day after we retire. If you plan to live 30 or 40 more years, how safe do you want to be?

To me the best bet in the world is stocks, and the entire world's stocks. I like having shares of companies that provide goods and services. I am planning a five-year I-Bond ladder to bridge me to full SS but everything else is in stocks. But only you can know your risk profile (and most people don't really know their risk profile until they've been tested, and sounds like you're already worried. Eight years is a loooong time.) All I know is I would rather have the unknown risk of stocks than the certain risk of losing to inflation.

Good luck, you still have time.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Safer investment ideas for 8 years?
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2022, 10:44:43 AM »
1) Home insulation and/or storm windows: 4-10% return, depending on your starting point and level of DIY. Bonus: will lower your expenses in retirement, lowering your FIRE number. Downside: Limited investment size.

2) Home solar panels: I'm buying some of these, and calculated about a >6% ROI if electricity prices and net metering stay the same. Bonus: will lower your expenses in retirement, lowering your FIRE number. Downside: Limited investment size.

3) TIP or VTIP: Your realized yield on these inflation-protected bond funds is going to be harder to calculate than if you just bought a bond directly from Treasury direct.

4) Ibonds: as mentioned. Downside: Limited investment size, risk of turning into low-yielding treasuries as the stock market takes off.

5) Preferred stocks: These are senior to common stocks in a liquidation, but less protected than bonds. They only get volatile when the SHTF once a decade, and don't stay down for too long. PFF and PGF yield between 4.7% and 5.5%. These tend to be issued by financial companies unless you go with PFXF, which is yielding 5.4% right now. I follow some preferred stocks that yield over 6.5% like Citigroup's J series, Summit Hotels' F series, and several REITs.

6) Deep in-the-money covered calls: For example, buy a stock for $10 and sell a call option against it at the $8 strike price for $2.50. You'll have to sell your stock for $8, but the $2.50 premium more than compensates you because options include a time value premium. Thus your outlay is $10 and your income is $8+$2.50. Plus, you are absolutely immune to any drop in price less than 20% in this example. If the stock did drop 21%, the call option you sold to somebody would be worthless, and you'd only be down 1% instead of 21%. Then you just sell another call. This is a defensive play that attempts to profit from high volatility in the financial markets.

7) Small-cap value and mid-cap value: These sectors have PE ratios in the low teens, which suggests they have minimal downside compared to tech stocks with higher valuations. If inflation is higher than expected, these firms' earnings will be discounted, but less so than for their growth counterparts. E.g. VIOV or VOE.

8) Downsize your car: Extreme example: Sell the 2017 Tahoe and get a 2022 Corolla Hybrid. Even if you have to pay something out-of-pocket to make such a change, you'll be locking in a lower cost of transportation and more inflation resilience for years into the future. If you want to calculate the exact savings that are possible, go to https://www.edmunds.com/tco.html. Try out different scenarios. There's a good chance that a newer car exists that will have a lower 5-year cost of ownership than your current ride, and this difference will amount to thousands of dollars over time. Even if you already have an economy car, UPGRADING it somehow might make sense in today's insane used car market. While on the subject of Corollas, Edmunds reports that a 2016 model has a several thousand dollar HIGHER cost of ownership over the next 5 years than a brand new 2022 model with the same trim package! The only reason not to make such a change is if you don't have the upfront cash to make the trade, and that's not your problem at the moment.

9) Preventative maintenance: Suppose you have a 10 year old water heater that was installed without a pan under it. You could either replace it now or wait for it to cause water damage when it fails - and also have to replace it. That's an easy choice. Other choices include your house needing a roof, your tires being bald, your house not having a termite policy, getting doctor checkups and regular labs run, obtaining counseling for any emotional / life decision / stress / depression issues, following the maintenance schedule on your car, and having your HVAC system checked and cleaned.

reeshau

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Re: Safer investment ideas for 8 years?
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2022, 10:54:18 AM »
If you are an educator, does that mean you have a traditional pension?  If so, then *that* is your safe return.  Whenever most people talk about bonds or fixed returns, think about your pension.  And the best thing you can do is make sure you can live off of that amount or less, whatever it is.

Does that pension have a COLA adjustment? If not, then you need non-pension money to GROW, not to be safe.  "Safe" often means "losing a known amount of money to inflation."  Even I bonds you buy now will pay 0%, net of inflation.  They are just treading water.  (But, they beat the pants off of any other guaranteed investment)

I very much agree with @harvestbook .  You aren't investing for 8-10 years, you are investing until the day you die.  If you are investing for a 30 year timeframe, would you want to be constantly losing to inflation?  Even modest 2-3% inflation will cut your asset value in half, or more.

If you have a pension, put that money in an index you are most comfortable with, and let it get to work!

Otterwins

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Re: Safer investment ideas for 8 years?
« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2022, 12:27:06 PM »
1) Home insulation and/or storm windows: 4-10% return, depending on your starting point and level of DIY. Bonus: will lower your expenses in retirement, lowering your FIRE number. Downside: Limited investment size.

2) Home solar panels: I'm buying some of these, and calculated about a >6% ROI if electricity prices and net metering stay the same. Bonus: will lower your expenses in retirement, lowering your FIRE number. Downside: Limited investment size.

3) TIP or VTIP: Your realized yield on these inflation-protected bond funds is going to be harder to calculate than if you just bought a bond directly from Treasury direct.

4) Ibonds: as mentioned. Downside: Limited investment size, risk of turning into low-yielding treasuries as the stock market takes off.

5) Preferred stocks: These are senior to common stocks in a liquidation, but less protected than bonds. They only get volatile when the SHTF once a decade, and don't stay down for too long. PFF and PGF yield between 4.7% and 5.5%. These tend to be issued by financial companies unless you go with PFXF, which is yielding 5.4% right now. I follow some preferred stocks that yield over 6.5% like Citigroup's J series, Summit Hotels' F series, and several REITs.

6) Deep in-the-money covered calls: For example, buy a stock for $10 and sell a call option against it at the $8 strike price for $2.50. You'll have to sell your stock for $8, but the $2.50 premium more than compensates you because options include a time value premium. Thus your outlay is $10 and your income is $8+$2.50. Plus, you are absolutely immune to any drop in price less than 20% in this example. If the stock did drop 21%, the call option you sold to somebody would be worthless, and you'd only be down 1% instead of 21%. Then you just sell another call. This is a defensive play that attempts to profit from high volatility in the financial markets.

7) Small-cap value and mid-cap value: These sectors have PE ratios in the low teens, which suggests they have minimal downside compared to tech stocks with higher valuations. If inflation is higher than expected, these firms' earnings will be discounted, but less so than for their growth counterparts. E.g. VIOV or VOE.

8) Downsize your car: Extreme example: Sell the 2017 Tahoe and get a 2022 Corolla Hybrid. Even if you have to pay something out-of-pocket to make such a change, you'll be locking in a lower cost of transportation and more inflation resilience for years into the future. If you want to calculate the exact savings that are possible, go to https://www.edmunds.com/tco.html. Try out different scenarios. There's a good chance that a newer car exists that will have a lower 5-year cost of ownership than your current ride, and this difference will amount to thousands of dollars over time. Even if you already have an economy car, UPGRADING it somehow might make sense in today's insane used car market. While on the subject of Corollas, Edmunds reports that a 2016 model has a several thousand dollar HIGHER cost of ownership over the next 5 years than a brand new 2022 model with the same trim package! The only reason not to make such a change is if you don't have the upfront cash to make the trade, and that's not your problem at the moment.

9) Preventative maintenance: Suppose you have a 10 year old water heater that was installed without a pan under it. You could either replace it now or wait for it to cause water damage when it fails - and also have to replace it. That's an easy choice. Other choices include your house needing a roof, your tires being bald, your house not having a termite policy, getting doctor checkups and regular labs run, obtaining counseling for any emotional / life decision / stress / depression issues, following the maintenance schedule on your car, and having your HVAC system checked and cleaned.

Thanks for these tips! I actually drive a 2008 Corolla (235,000 miles this week...just got an oil change). I have cash set aside for the new Corolla when this dies (going for 300,000!).

I actually don't own a house since I'm by myself. I rent cheaply, and I'm an extreme minimalist with just a dog. If I can find a cheap home after retirement (I can relocate then), I might go that direction with my savings (hence perhaps wanting to pull from savings after 8-10 years). If I purchased a home with cash at that point, my pension would be enough to cover my other expenses.

I will look into these options. Thanks!

Otterwins

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Re: Safer investment ideas for 8 years?
« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2022, 12:34:37 PM »
If you are an educator, does that mean you have a traditional pension?  If so, then *that* is your safe return.  Whenever most people talk about bonds or fixed returns, think about your pension.  And the best thing you can do is make sure you can live off of that amount or less, whatever it is.

Does that pension have a COLA adjustment? If not, then you need non-pension money to GROW, not to be safe.  "Safe" often means "losing a known amount of money to inflation."  Even I bonds you buy now will pay 0%, net of inflation.  They are just treading water.  (But, they beat the pants off of any other guaranteed investment)

I very much agree with @harvestbook .  You aren't investing for 8-10 years, you are investing until the day you die.  If you are investing for a 30 year timeframe, would you want to be constantly losing to inflation?  Even modest 2-3% inflation will cut your asset value in half, or more.

If you have a pension, put that money in an index you are most comfortable with, and let it get to work!

Yes - I have a teacher's pension that will pay 60% of my current income. It's almost enough, but I want to make sure I don't end up struggling later.

Thanks for these perspectives!

lutorm

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Re: Safer investment ideas for 8 years?
« Reply #7 on: June 03, 2022, 12:35:40 PM »
I'm also confused about this 8-year timeframe. If you needed the money to pay for your living expenses for the next 8 years until your pension kicked in, then I'd agree you need to be safe. But it sounds like you're going to be saving for 8 years and then will use those funds to supplement a pension in an indefinite retirement? If so, then I agree with reeshau that you need returns, not safety. I think an impending recession would actually be good for you, because you'd have 8 years to buy stocks on sale.

Otterwins

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Re: Safer investment ideas for 8 years?
« Reply #8 on: June 03, 2022, 03:31:50 PM »
I'm also confused about this 8-year timeframe. If you needed the money to pay for your living expenses for the next 8 years until your pension kicked in, then I'd agree you need to be safe. But it sounds like you're going to be saving for 8 years and then will use those funds to supplement a pension in an indefinite retirement? If so, then I agree with reeshau that you need returns, not safety. I think an impending recession would actually be good for you, because you'd have 8 years to buy stocks on sale.

Thanks for this perspective...it's good to consider I still have time. I won't need to access the money in 8 years if I continue to rent, but I also may want to finally purchase a small, efficient home after I retire and can move to a more cost effective area (just moving 1 hour north is about $100,000 less). Rent in my current university town is getting super pricey, but I have a great deal with a landlord I know personally...but this could change in 10 years.