Thanks for putting the spreadsheet together! I had been too lazy today to get that far. Seems like it's more personal preference at this point, with maybe a slight edge to taxable.
You are welcome. I wouldn't just toss a coin in the air and decide. Look at the bigger picture, then decide.
Understand that Roth is intended for a retirement savings vehicle. It has incredibly good advantages of not having to pay taxes on withdrawal. This is especially helpful if you think you will be in a higher tax bracket in retirement. With yourself in a 12% bracket, I don't see how you could not be in the same or higher tax bracket in the future. If you use Roth space for what it's intended then you will likely save a LOT of money in the future.
If your main savings goal is really to buy a house outright after 20 years I would put the money in taxable. Have you considered other options? What about just buying a house with a 15 year mortgage? How does that change your needed investment income for FIRE? Would you then be able to use the Roth with "Substantially Equal Periodic Payments" (SEPP) rule to withdraw payments from your Roth so you don't have to pay the 10% penalty? Can you save enough in taxable and in Roth as to max out the Roth for retirement, but also have a healthy down-payment for your house in taxable?
Pulling out a lump sum of that magnitude will probably put you into a higher marginal tax rate as well. It will probably better to take the money out in smaller chunks to limit your taxable income as well.
My advice, I guess is to look at the bigger picture of what the savings vehicles purposes are and how to best use them to your advantage.
PS. Current tax law also allows up to $10k of rIRA gains for use in a downpayment on your first home tax free.