Author Topic: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?  (Read 112861 times)

maizefolk

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #500 on: November 05, 2022, 07:30:37 PM »
It can take a lot of attempts to get innovation right in rocketry. The good think for RL is that they're in a similar position to SpaceX when SpaceX was first trying to get first stage landing right: they're getting paid to launch the rockets and can take as many shots on goals as needed to get their R&D add on (landing for spacex, catching for rocketlab) right.

I highly recommend this montage of all the different rockets SpaceX lost learning how to land a rocket over ~3 years before the first time they actually succeed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvim4rsNHkQ

Now it's a routine process. RocketLab isn't quite hitting their one launch a month target cadence, but they're launching faster than spaceX was back in 2013-16, so hopefully it won't take them three years to get enough reps to figure this out.

alcon835

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #501 on: November 08, 2022, 06:32:50 AM »
It can take a lot of attempts to get innovation right in rocketry. The good think for RL is that they're in a similar position to SpaceX when SpaceX was first trying to get first stage landing right: they're getting paid to launch the rockets and can take as many shots on goals as needed to get their R&D add on (landing for spacex, catching for rocketlab) right.

Yes, I believe Rocket Lab can and will solve these issues, it's more a matter of how long that will take. And, as you rightly point out, they get paid for each attempt!

BicycleB

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #502 on: November 12, 2022, 11:32:12 AM »
RKLB at $5.13 a share, average cost per share $5.53 after all my nibbles. Really glad the nibbles at 3.85, 4.10, etc brought the average down. Almost at breakeven! Rise, RocketLab, rise!


It rose! Irrelevant to the company as a whole, but at yesterday's close of $5.63, finally reached the first few pennies of unrealized gain. The rocket is 10 millimeters off the launching pad. :)

(Temporarily. I'm enjoying this while it lasts because I fully expect it to be lower at some point. Maybe as soon as Monday!)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #503 on: November 12, 2022, 12:22:53 PM »
The market reacted really strongly to that 7.7% CPI-U print, lifting Rocket Lab off the launch pad with the rest of the stocks.  Meta (+21.3%) has done better than Rocket Lab (+10.6%) since I switched - I think layoffs at Meta provided the first evidence of cost controls.

According to Yahoo Finance, Rocket Lab has $500 million in cash, which looks like about 5 years worth.  It looks like they'd last longer than most companies if bad economic conditions drag on for a few years.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #504 on: November 13, 2022, 02:24:20 AM »
Some sort of tent has been erected at the Neutron production site:
https://www.reddit.com/r/RKLB/comments/ytjio5/november_12_visit_to_the_wallops_neutron/

Interesting! I wonder what's going on in there?

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #505 on: November 14, 2022, 04:33:43 PM »
CAPSTONE has successfully reached the moon!
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/the-first-cubesat-to-fly-and-operate-at-the-moon-has-successfully-arrived/

Also, Rocket Lab just landed a contract to provide separation systems for US military satellites:
https://spacenews.com/rocket-lab-wins-14-million-in-contracts-to-supply-hardware-for-u-s-military-satellites/

Finally, Rocket Lab will be supplying the “Satellite Operations Control Center” for the Globalstar satellites that they are building:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-lab-selected-mda-deliver-211000419.html

These are small wins, but it’s good to see progress being made!

TomTX

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #506 on: November 16, 2022, 08:02:07 PM »
I doubt SpaceX would be interested in buying Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab doesn’t have anything that SpaceX needs, their carbon fiber rocket technology is fundamentally different and incompatible with what SpaceX is doing, and SpaceX would much rather do things in house. In my opinion, it would be easier for SpaceX to just build their own version of whatever Rocket Lab is doing than to actually acquire Rocket Lab.
Sorry for being late to the party...

Anyway, I agree.

SpaceX tried carbon fiber as a first material choice for Starship and gave up on it, dumping many millions of dollars of custom equipment they had purchased. They already know how to build, launch and land larger scale rockets. They build (and rapidly iterate) their own satellites inhouse - currently they have the largest satellite fleet of any company or country. Not seeing what a Rocketlab purchase would do for them.

BicycleB

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #507 on: November 17, 2022, 09:33:58 AM »
RKLB now at $4.46, down from $5.64 at 3:30 Friday 11th and $5.22 yesterday 3:45 pm. Anybody know why?

AlanStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #508 on: November 17, 2022, 10:29:57 AM »
RKLB now at $4.46, down from $5.64 at 3:30 Friday 11th and $5.22 yesterday 3:45 pm. Anybody know why?

Success of SLS?  Different class but still demonstrates others can build rockets

BicycleB

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #509 on: November 17, 2022, 01:13:55 PM »
RKLB now at $4.46, down from $5.64 at 3:30 Friday 11th and $5.22 yesterday 3:45 pm. Anybody know why?

Success of SLS?  Different class but still demonstrates others can build rockets

Thanks for reply, @AlanStache!

That's an interesting idea. I'd assumed that was good news, not bad, but you've pointed out it could be construed the other way.

Absent clearer info, I settled for buying a nibble or two.

Still open to other info too for understanding's sake. Maybe RKLB investors overlap with crypto and somebody needed to sell a lot RKLB to cover something not rocket-related?

TomTX

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #510 on: November 17, 2022, 03:40:58 PM »
RKLB now at $4.46, down from $5.64 at 3:30 Friday 11th and $5.22 yesterday 3:45 pm. Anybody know why?

Success of SLS?  Different class but still demonstrates others can build rockets
SLS is an INSANELY overpriced rocket stack. SLS+Orion has cost over $50B in development costs (plus whatever else was buried) - and each launch is an additional $4B.

SLS should have absolutely no bearing whatsoever on commercial rocketry. SLS only exists as it is due to a massive Congressional pork mandate. NASA is required to develop SLS and Orion, using "legacy" contractors.

AlanStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #511 on: November 18, 2022, 02:16:56 PM »
RKLB now at $4.46, down from $5.64 at 3:30 Friday 11th and $5.22 yesterday 3:45 pm. Anybody know why?

Success of SLS?  Different class but still demonstrates others can build rockets
SLS is an INSANELY overpriced rocket stack. SLS+Orion has cost over $50B in development costs (plus whatever else was buried) - and each launch is an additional $4B.

SLS should have absolutely no bearing whatsoever on commercial rocketry. SLS only exists as it is due to a massive Congressional pork mandate. NASA is required to develop SLS and Orion, using "legacy" contractors.

yep to all that. 

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #512 on: November 23, 2022, 12:38:31 AM »
Rocket Lab announced their Q3 2022 earnings results a few days ago:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/rocket-lab-q3-results-record-revenue-added-contract-wins.html

Looks like it is more of the same. Revenue continues to grow and costs are under control. However, no new major contracts were signed and the revenue backlog shrunk again.

You can listen to the conference call here if you are interested:
https://investors.rocketlabusa.com/events-and-presentations/events/event-details/2022/Third-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-Update-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx

One key piece of information that was shared in the conference call is that Rocket Lab needs 16 Electron launches per year for Electron to become profitable. They hope to launch 14 Electrons in 2023. Rocket Lab hopes to be profitable once Neutron R&D spending winds down in 2024.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2022, 01:15:38 AM by Herbert Derp »

BicycleB

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #513 on: November 23, 2022, 01:29:31 AM »
Reading the report, revenue is expected to drop in 4th quarter. However the majority of 3Q revenue ($40.1M of ~63M) is from space systems rather than launch, which I guess is good for the future.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #514 on: November 23, 2022, 04:07:05 PM »
NASA has just awarded a contract for the remaining two launches for the TROPICS hurricane tracking constellation to Rocket Lab. These launches had previously been contracted to Astra, who cancelled their rocket program after failing the first TROPICS launch and losing two of NASA’s six TROPICS satellites.

The two launches will launch back-to-back over a 60-day period beginning no earlier than May 1, 2023, enabling NASA to provide observations during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1. Great news for Rocket Lab! I wonder if these two launches were included in the 14 Electron launches Rocket Lab projected for 2023 in their recent conference call?
« Last Edit: November 23, 2022, 04:12:19 PM by Herbert Derp »

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #515 on: November 23, 2022, 08:50:17 PM »
Interestingly ASTR is also up today despite the TROPICS launch contracts announcement.

I'm just jumping into this thread, but I'm in the industry (albeit only for 30 more days) and have kept an eye on RKLB for several years. They're the real deal, likely to survive the small launch industry shakeout.

Unfortunately it's still damn hard to tell what their revenue growth is going to look like and whether broader economics will lift the share price over the medium term. Should I take a gamble?



BicycleB

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #516 on: November 23, 2022, 10:54:24 PM »
Lol, I was hoping you would tell us :)

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #517 on: November 24, 2022, 04:06:10 AM »
Should I take a gamble?

None of us can tell you what to do. We just like the stock!

alcon835

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #518 on: November 25, 2022, 09:51:12 AM »
I wonder if these two launches were included in the 14 Electron launches Rocket Lab projected for 2023 in their recent conference call?

This is what I would like to know as well! If they become profitable in 2023, that would be quite a thing.

Should I take a gamble?

That's of course up to you, but whatever you decide, I'd be very interested to hear your reasoning! What do you do in the industry?

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #519 on: November 25, 2022, 01:30:36 PM »
Lol, I was hoping you would tell us :)

Ha, that was a rhetorical question. I took a very risky gamble this morning ... not sure I'm ready to share anything more than it's a long position.

Here's what I like: #1 RKLB is flight proven with demonstrated reliability. Potential customers, governments, insurers, and financiers are going to take them more seriously than, say, Relativity. #2 They have recurring revenue and the business is diversified. #3 Their launch model, with unique launch sites and dedicated launchers, differentiates them from their larger competitors. #4 Their deal with Apple/GlobalStar/MDA has potential, including stock-moving revenue growth. #5 They seem to be expanding cautiously.

Here's what I don't like: #1 SpaceX's huge lead in the same business areas, incl. med/heavy launch, rideshare, Starlink and the partnership with T-Mobile. #2 Neutron design seems to be very immature, suggesting it won't be operational several years. Side note, hopefully they come around to a ship based recovery option. #3 They are relatively late in the economic cycle relative to business growth stages. #4 They're not well positioned to capture the big money U.S. government contracts from SDA, NASA, and Space Force. #5 Limited existing TAM (overstated in their docs) for some of their recent initiatives.

Weighing all of this, I can't help but the stock is too beaten down at a $2B market cap. I can see many scenarios to $10B in a year or two. There are certainly scenarios where it goes completely bust, but those are much less probable IMO. I'll be following things VERY closely for awhile.

BicycleB

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #520 on: November 25, 2022, 07:24:23 PM »
Lol, I was hoping you would tell us :)

Ha, that was a rhetorical question. I took a very risky gamble this morning ... not sure I'm ready to share anything more than it's a long position.

Here's what I like: #1 RKLB is flight proven with demonstrated reliability. Potential customers, governments, insurers, and financiers are going to take them more seriously than, say, Relativity. #2 They have recurring revenue and the business is diversified. #3 Their launch model, with unique launch sites and dedicated launchers, differentiates them from their larger competitors. #4 Their deal with Apple/GlobalStar/MDA has potential, including stock-moving revenue growth. #5 They seem to be expanding cautiously.

Here's what I don't like: #1 SpaceX's huge lead in the same business areas, incl. med/heavy launch, rideshare, Starlink and the partnership with T-Mobile. #2 Neutron design seems to be very immature, suggesting it won't be operational several years. Side note, hopefully they come around to a ship based recovery option. #3 They are relatively late in the economic cycle relative to business growth stages. #4 They're not well positioned to capture the big money U.S. government contracts from SDA, NASA, and Space Force. #5 Limited existing TAM (overstated in their docs) for some of their recent initiatives.

Weighing all of this, I can't help but the stock is too beaten down at a $2B market cap. I can see many scenarios to $10B in a year or two. There are certainly scenarios where it goes completely bust, but those are much less probable IMO. I'll be following things VERY closely for awhile.

(sorry) @LightStache, what is TAM?

maizefolk

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #521 on: November 25, 2022, 09:32:57 PM »
In this context I think it stands for "total addressable market" (i.e. how big is the total market for launches small enough to fit on proton, or on neutron, or the market for assembling satellites)

BicycleB

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #522 on: November 25, 2022, 11:07:42 PM »
In this context I think it stands for "total addressable market" (i.e. how big is the total market for launches small enough to fit on proton, or on neutron, or the market for assembling satellites)

Thanks, that makes sense

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #523 on: November 26, 2022, 09:26:39 AM »
In this context I think it stands for "total addressable market" (i.e. how big is the total market for launches small enough to fit on proton, or on neutron, or the market for assembling satellites)

Thanks, that makes sense

Right, I was looking at their Sep Investor Day briefing and thought both current stated TAM and growth through 2030 were overstated.

If we look at the launch market only, SpaceX probably has between $2B-$2.5B in revenue: https://payloadspace.com/spacexs-22-revenues-a-reformed-wall-street-analysts-best-guess/

SpaceX has completed 52 launches this year out of a global addressable market of 79, implying a capture of 66%. But we need to back out Starlink because that's arguably not part of the market and, even if it is, not addressable by RKLB. So that gives us 21 SpaceX launches out of 48, or a capture of 44% of TAM.

That implies a 2022 launch TAM for RKLB of $4.5B - $5.7B, which is way smaller than the ~$20B stated in their briefing. When they combine that with an optimistic 12.8% CAGR, the projections are pretty unrealistic.

But like I said above, they seem to be conservative with their facility footprint, so even if their TAMs are overestimated, RKLB won't be crushed by stupid fixed cost investments. Their Neutron "Production Complex" looks both small and cheap, which is great. Out there in BF Virginia they'll be able to expand easily if their manifest grows.

BicycleB

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #524 on: November 27, 2022, 03:05:07 PM »
In this context I think it stands for "total addressable market" (i.e. how big is the total market for launches small enough to fit on proton, or on neutron, or the market for assembling satellites)

Thanks, that makes sense

Right, I was looking at their Sep Investor Day briefing and thought both current stated TAM and growth through 2030 were overstated.

If we look at the launch market only, SpaceX probably has between $2B-$2.5B in revenue: https://payloadspace.com/spacexs-22-revenues-a-reformed-wall-street-analysts-best-guess/

SpaceX has completed 52 launches this year out of a global addressable market of 79, implying a capture of 66%. But we need to back out Starlink because that's arguably not part of the market and, even if it is, not addressable by RKLB. So that gives us 21 SpaceX launches out of 48, or a capture of 44% of TAM.

That implies a 2022 launch TAM for RKLB of $4.5B - $5.7B, which is way smaller than the ~$20B stated in their briefing. When they combine that with an optimistic 12.8% CAGR, the projections are pretty unrealistic.

But like I said above, they seem to be conservative with their facility footprint, so even if their TAMs are overestimated, RKLB won't be crushed by stupid fixed cost investments. Their Neutron "Production Complex" looks both small and cheap, which is great. Out there in BF Virginia they'll be able to expand easily if their manifest grows.

Interesting!

I thought the main thing for RocketLab was future TAM (now that I know the term), and that year by year growth was the trackable path by which they hoped to reach their growth targets. I originally invested only very small sums because I figured future TAM was a fuzzy number. Surprising, weird and troubling that current TAM would be so off.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #525 on: November 27, 2022, 03:59:01 PM »
That implies a 2022 launch TAM for RKLB of $4.5B - $5.7B, which is way smaller than the ~$20B stated in their briefing. When they combine that with an optimistic 12.8% CAGR, the projections are pretty unrealistic.

Where are you getting that number from? I’m looking at their slide #87 entitled “EXPANSION OF ADDRESSABLE MARKET (LAUNCH & SPACE SYSTEMS)” and the 2022 launch TAM seems less than $5B. It’s not anywhere near $20B. They are not projecting $20B launch TAM until 2026.

Link to investor presentation:
https://www.rocketlabusa.com/assets/Final_Investor%20Day%20Presentation%202022_Sept%2021.pdf
« Last Edit: November 27, 2022, 04:01:55 PM by Herbert Derp »

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #526 on: November 27, 2022, 06:42:13 PM »
That implies a 2022 launch TAM for RKLB of $4.5B - $5.7B, which is way smaller than the ~$20B stated in their briefing. When they combine that with an optimistic 12.8% CAGR, the projections are pretty unrealistic.

Where are you getting that number from? I’m looking at their slide #87 entitled “EXPANSION OF ADDRESSABLE MARKET (LAUNCH & SPACE SYSTEMS)” and the 2022 launch TAM seems less than $5B. It’s not anywhere near $20B. They are not projecting $20B launch TAM until 2026.

Link to investor presentation:
https://www.rocketlabusa.com/assets/Final_Investor%20Day%20Presentation%202022_Sept%2021.pdf

I was looking at slide 10 TAM figures. Slide 87 seems to be showing SAM.

ETA: I would think my comment about not being well positioned to capture the big money U.S. government contracts would be more controversial than my TAM observation, but I guess we just went down the TAM-hole because @BicycleB wasn't familiar with the acronym.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2022, 06:54:33 PM by LightStache »

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #527 on: November 27, 2022, 06:47:45 PM »
In this context I think it stands for "total addressable market" (i.e. how big is the total market for launches small enough to fit on proton, or on neutron, or the market for assembling satellites)

Thanks, that makes sense

Right, I was looking at their Sep Investor Day briefing and thought both current stated TAM and growth through 2030 were overstated.

If we look at the launch market only, SpaceX probably has between $2B-$2.5B in revenue: https://payloadspace.com/spacexs-22-revenues-a-reformed-wall-street-analysts-best-guess/

SpaceX has completed 52 launches this year out of a global addressable market of 79, implying a capture of 66%. But we need to back out Starlink because that's arguably not part of the market and, even if it is, not addressable by RKLB. So that gives us 21 SpaceX launches out of 48, or a capture of 44% of TAM.

That implies a 2022 launch TAM for RKLB of $4.5B - $5.7B, which is way smaller than the ~$20B stated in their briefing. When they combine that with an optimistic 12.8% CAGR, the projections are pretty unrealistic.

But like I said above, they seem to be conservative with their facility footprint, so even if their TAMs are overestimated, RKLB won't be crushed by stupid fixed cost investments. Their Neutron "Production Complex" looks both small and cheap, which is great. Out there in BF Virginia they'll be able to expand easily if their manifest grows.

Interesting!

I thought the main thing for RocketLab was future TAM (now that I know the term), and that year by year growth was the trackable path by which they hoped to reach their growth targets. I originally invested only very small sums because I figured future TAM was a fuzzy number. Surprising, weird and troubling that current TAM would be so off.

You can get to pretty high TAM numbers by taking a few liberties in your model. Startups are usually (always) over-optimistic, sometimes bordering on misleading (or if you're Theranos, just straight misleading), so I'd say it's pretty normal. Future TAM is a fuzzy number and only one small piece of the valuation puzzle.

BicycleB

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #528 on: November 27, 2022, 07:30:35 PM »
In this context I think it stands for "total addressable market" (i.e. how big is the total market for launches small enough to fit on proton, or on neutron, or the market for assembling satellites)

Thanks, that makes sense

Right, I was looking at their Sep Investor Day briefing and thought both current stated TAM and growth through 2030 were overstated.

If we look at the launch market only, SpaceX probably has between $2B-$2.5B in revenue: https://payloadspace.com/spacexs-22-revenues-a-reformed-wall-street-analysts-best-guess/

SpaceX has completed 52 launches this year out of a global addressable market of 79, implying a capture of 66%. But we need to back out Starlink because that's arguably not part of the market and, even if it is, not addressable by RKLB. So that gives us 21 SpaceX launches out of 48, or a capture of 44% of TAM.

That implies a 2022 launch TAM for RKLB of $4.5B - $5.7B, which is way smaller than the ~$20B stated in their briefing. When they combine that with an optimistic 12.8% CAGR, the projections are pretty unrealistic.

But like I said above, they seem to be conservative with their facility footprint, so even if their TAMs are overestimated, RKLB won't be crushed by stupid fixed cost investments. Their Neutron "Production Complex" looks both small and cheap, which is great. Out there in BF Virginia they'll be able to expand easily if their manifest grows.

Interesting!

I thought the main thing for RocketLab was future TAM (now that I know the term), and that year by year growth was the trackable path by which they hoped to reach their growth targets. I originally invested only very small sums because I figured future TAM was a fuzzy number. Surprising, weird and troubling that current TAM would be so off.

You can get to pretty high TAM numbers by taking a few liberties in your model. Startups are usually (always) over-optimistic, sometimes bordering on misleading (or if you're Theranos, just straight misleading), so I'd say it's pretty normal. Future TAM is a fuzzy number and only one small piece of the valuation puzzle.

Yes, surely future TAM is fuzzy, we agree on that.

Is current TAM ~$20B in their presentation, which is confusing to me because it differs from past discussions? Or less than $5B as HerbertDerp said, which would be less confusing because it's similar to past discussions of their plans (and similar to your own calculation of $4.5B-5.7B if I'm reading correctly)?

PS. I liked your balancing of factors and comments based on industry experience, am just pursuing the thing that seemed like an anomaly. Also, since it was mentioned as apparently a key argument for your conclusion, would wonder if you have the same conclusion in the event that current TAM is correct. You may still have the same conclusion, and that would be important information!
« Last Edit: November 27, 2022, 07:46:18 PM by BicycleB »

Reynold

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #529 on: November 29, 2022, 09:16:11 PM »
SpaceX has completed 52 launches this year out of a global addressable market of 79, implying a capture of 66%. But we need to back out Starlink because that's arguably not part of the market and, even if it is, not addressable by RKLB. So that gives us 21 SpaceX launches out of 48, or a capture of 44% of TAM.

Are you sure Rocketlab could capture much of the remaining 48?  How many of those are basically government determined (Russia, China, Europe) so would not be willing to launch with a U.S. company? 

It is very possible that Rocketlab's main market could just be the subset of commercial launches with "anyone but SpaceX", i.e. competing constellation launchers like Amazon.  That could be rather small, though it will certainly exist since multiple entities, including the U.S. government, do want competition for SpaceX. 

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #530 on: November 30, 2022, 07:07:39 AM »
SpaceX has completed 52 launches this year out of a global addressable market of 79, implying a capture of 66%. But we need to back out Starlink because that's arguably not part of the market and, even if it is, not addressable by RKLB. So that gives us 21 SpaceX launches out of 48, or a capture of 44% of TAM.

Are you sure Rocketlab could capture much of the remaining 48?  How many of those are basically government determined (Russia, China, Europe) so would not be willing to launch with a U.S. company? 

It is very possible that Rocketlab's main market could just be the subset of commercial launches with "anyone but SpaceX", i.e. competing constellation launchers like Amazon.  That could be rather small, though it will certainly exist since multiple entities, including the U.S. government, do want competition for SpaceX.

Agree with your point 100%. The 48 / 79 figures excluded RUS, PRC, and EUR. While I think it's possible for RKLB to capture some of the EUR market, they've only had three launches this year, and I think that's probably fewer than they'd be willing to let go abroad moving forward.

I suspect that RKLB used the full global launch market to arrive at the $20B TAM, in which case the number might be reasonably close. But if the RUS / PRC / EUR segment is not "addressable" by the company, then it's overstated by about 400%.

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #531 on: November 30, 2022, 07:14:05 AM »
I see that the CFO and GC both sold shares on Nov 25. What do you all make of the insider selling trend? Obviously not a bullish sign.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #532 on: November 30, 2022, 03:52:56 PM »
I saw the same thing:
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1819994.htm

At least in the case of CFO Adam Spice, he only sold a minuscule percent of his shares. Not the case for board member Michael Griffin, though.

Reynold

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #533 on: December 05, 2022, 03:30:25 PM »
I see that the CFO and GC both sold shares on Nov 25. What do you all make of the insider selling trend? Obviously not a bullish sign.

I have read that in general insiders *selling* stock is not a good or bad sign, because they may just want to pay for something they happen to be buying or diversify.  What you want to look for is insiders *buying* their own stock, as the only reason for that is they expect Good Things going forward. 

I would take that general statement with a grain of salt, though, this is an industry where even Rocketlab, as arguably the closest to competing with SpaceX, is still years and hundreds of millions of dollars away from being able to do so.  SpaceX has already taken a lot of their small rocket payloads with cheap rideshare launches.  Rocketlab still has to design and build their Neutron competitor to the Falcon 9, fly it, reuse it (to have a chance of competing price wise) and do these things often enough that people will trust them with payloads.  There is also a pretty good chance that by the time they can do this (2 years away?), SpaceX will have flown their Starship and gotten reuse worked out, for an even cheaper cost to orbit than the Neutron.  They also can't just pour money into facilities and development, since they don't have a passionate billionaire who doesn't expect a return on money backing them, and this is a super capital intensive business. 

I would invest in Rocketlab over any other launch competitor in a heartbeat, but I'm just not sure if being the least far behind SpaceX is enough to justify it. . .

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #534 on: December 05, 2022, 03:36:38 PM »
I flipped bearish on Friday and expect more losses for the market in early 2023.  For those investing in RKLB, consider the 18.47% losses in the past 30 day as an indicator of where things could go.
($5.09 on Nov 7, now $4.15 on Dec 5)

AlanStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #535 on: December 06, 2022, 07:21:22 PM »
First launch from Va scheduled for this friday, I would be very tempted to drive up and have a watch but will be out of town :-(

I have tried looking for launches from home before and never got lucky, am sort of at the limit of where you could see them from.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #536 on: December 09, 2022, 11:46:22 AM »
RKLB is now my smallest short position, sold short at $4.04/sh.

Of people who expect lower inflation and a soft landing, many expect market drops next quarter.  And everyone who predicts lower inflation seems unaware that historically nobody can accurately predict inflation.  So I can either bet that some of them are right, and we see stocks drop in 2023 Q1.  Or I can bet they're wrong, and inflation turns out worse than expected, and stocks drop in 2023.  To me there's a lot more room to succeed with put options and shorting, which is why I shorted various stocks including a very small position on RKLB.

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #537 on: December 15, 2022, 09:15:33 AM »
RKLB is now my smallest short position, sold short at $4.04/sh.

Of people who expect lower inflation and a soft landing, many expect market drops next quarter.  And everyone who predicts lower inflation seems unaware that historically nobody can accurately predict inflation.  So I can either bet that some of them are right, and we see stocks drop in 2023 Q1.  Or I can bet they're wrong, and inflation turns out worse than expected, and stocks drop in 2023.  To me there's a lot more room to succeed with put options and shorting, which is why I shorted various stocks including a very small position on RKLB.

Your thesis is proving right today. Ouch!

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #538 on: December 15, 2022, 12:07:13 PM »
RKLB is now my smallest short position, sold short at $4.04/sh.

Of people who expect lower inflation and a soft landing, many expect market drops next quarter.  And everyone who predicts lower inflation seems unaware that historically nobody can accurately predict inflation.  So I can either bet that some of them are right, and we see stocks drop in 2023 Q1.  Or I can bet they're wrong, and inflation turns out worse than expected, and stocks drop in 2023.  To me there's a lot more room to succeed with put options and shorting, which is why I shorted various stocks including a very small position on RKLB.
Your thesis is proving right today. Ouch!
Too bad I covered my RKLB short position after a 4% loss...

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #539 on: December 15, 2022, 04:04:38 PM »
RKLB is now my smallest short position, sold short at $4.04/sh.

Of people who expect lower inflation and a soft landing, many expect market drops next quarter.  And everyone who predicts lower inflation seems unaware that historically nobody can accurately predict inflation.  So I can either bet that some of them are right, and we see stocks drop in 2023 Q1.  Or I can bet they're wrong, and inflation turns out worse than expected, and stocks drop in 2023.  To me there's a lot more room to succeed with put options and shorting, which is why I shorted various stocks including a very small position on RKLB.
Your thesis is proving right today. Ouch!
Too bad I covered my RKLB short position after a 4% loss...

No! I was hoping at least one of us would be winning haha.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #540 on: December 26, 2022, 10:53:57 PM »
Rocket Lab's December launch got pushed back to January due to high winds:
https://www.space.com/rocket-lab-1st-electron-launch-delayed-by-winds

This is a completely normal thing in the world of rocket launches but from an accounting perspective it means the financials for this launch will be pushed into next year. Perhaps it will inch us even closer to the 16 launches needed for Electron to be profitable? Previously, Rocket Lab had estimated 14 Electron launches in 2023.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #541 on: December 27, 2022, 03:15:18 PM »
Relativity Space is making progress with their Aeon R engines that they will use for Terran R (a Neutron competitor). By all accounts, they seem to be ahead of Rocket Lab in terms of engine development. Rocket Lab has yet to demonstrate this level of progress with their Archimedes engine.

12/20/2022 test:
https://twitter.com/thetimellis/status/1605066435021004800

12/24/2022 test:
https://twitter.com/thetimellis/status/1606368351051075584

Note that this is not a complete engine.

Quote from: Tim Ellis
We are in process of building the first full engine with turbopumps, and will begin testing w/ pumps next year. This thrust chamber assembly testing will help us get regen, injector, and performance data which is key.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2022, 03:20:08 PM by Herbert Derp »

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #542 on: December 28, 2022, 07:45:47 AM »
Relativity Space is making progress with their Aeon R engines that they will use for Terran R (a Neutron competitor). By all accounts, they seem to be ahead of Rocket Lab in terms of engine development. Rocket Lab has yet to demonstrate this level of progress with their Archimedes engine.

12/20/2022 test:
https://twitter.com/thetimellis/status/1605066435021004800

12/24/2022 test:
https://twitter.com/thetimellis/status/1606368351051075584

Note that this is not a complete engine.

Quote from: Tim Ellis
We are in process of building the first full engine with turbopumps, and will begin testing w/ pumps next year. This thrust chamber assembly testing will help us get regen, injector, and performance data which is key.

I agree. I posted up-thread that Neutron design seems to be immature relative to a first flight in 2024. That was largely based on the announcement in Sep '22 that they're changing Archimedes from GG to OSRC. That's a change you make in the earliest design stages, not midway through development.

Still Electron is a proven, revenue-generating workhorse and RKLB has a long cash runway. So as a business they're ahead of Relativity even if Terran R flies before Neutron, which is not a sure thing this early in the dev cycles.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #543 on: December 28, 2022, 10:08:45 AM »
Relevant thread on another forum

Who will flight first, Beta, Terran-R or Neutron?

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=57314.msg2415054#msg2415054


Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #544 on: December 28, 2022, 05:52:47 PM »
It may not be an engine hot fire, but Rocket Lab has shared some pictures of part of the Neutron tank dome:
https://twitter.com/Peter_J_Beck/status/1605781729163108352

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #545 on: January 09, 2023, 06:58:50 PM »
Looks like Rocket Lab just had their first hot fire of Archimedes engine components:
https://twitter.com/rocketlab/status/1612627192181305345

Rocket Lab’s Virginia launch seems to be scheduled for January 22nd:
https://www.reddit.com/r/RocketLab/comments/107glxh/new_flight_window_january_22nd/

Meanwhile, Rocket Lab competitor Virgin Orbit just failed their mission today. The second stage failed to reach orbit and fell back to Earth. Space is hard!
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/01/virgin-orbits-launcherone-rocket-suffers-anomaly-fails-to-reach-orbit/

« Last Edit: January 09, 2023, 07:05:49 PM by Herbert Derp »

LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #546 on: January 10, 2023, 11:26:53 AM »
Looks like Rocket Lab just had their first hot fire of Archimedes engine components:
https://twitter.com/rocketlab/status/1612627192181305345

Their tweet sucks. Are we looking at an injector at low power?

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #547 on: January 10, 2023, 07:17:16 PM »
Their tweet sucks. Are we looking at an injector at low power?

Honestly, I have no idea. The tweet says "dev hardware", whatever that means. Whatever it is, it's obviously only a small portion of the overall engine.

In other news, ABL's first launch has failed. Space remains hard.
https://spacenews.com/first-abl-space-systems-launch-fails/

AlanStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #548 on: January 10, 2023, 08:01:48 PM »
Their tweet sucks. Are we looking at an injector at low power?

Honestly, I have no idea. The tweet says "dev hardware", whatever that means. Whatever it is, it's obviously only a small portion of the overall engine.


One of the replies on twitter guessed it was without the combustion chamber and nozzle.  Guess you might do this if you were less interested in actual thrust data and more just wanted to see up stream systems function.  I will give them the benefit of the doubt as the largest rocket I ever made used structural cardboard. 


LightStache

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #549 on: January 10, 2023, 09:16:47 PM »
Their tweet sucks. Are we looking at an injector at low power?

Honestly, I have no idea. The tweet says "dev hardware", whatever that means. Whatever it is, it's obviously only a small portion of the overall engine.

In other news, ABL's first launch has failed. Space remains hard.
https://spacenews.com/first-abl-space-systems-launch-fails/

Yea the idealist in me hates to see any launch fail (except maybe one from N. Korea), but the RKLB investor wants them all to burn haha.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!