Author Topic: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?  (Read 112864 times)

Herbert Derp

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Unfortunately, the CAPSTONE mission isn’t going to send Rocket Lab’s share price to the moon. The mission is cool but it doesn’t demonstrate any new capabilities. I think the only things that will boost Rocket Lab’s share price are broader market activity, another big contract like Globalstar, or significant progress on Neutron. At this point, it may be safe to say that those of us who invested early in Rocket Lab were too early!

In other news, Astra seems to be making progress with their Rocket 4.0, which will have similar performance to Electron at a cost of $4M per launch whereas Electron costs about $7M per launch. However, I would expect Electron to be reusable by the time Rocket 4.0 takes flight, which should keep Electron competitive. Astra also has plans to launch from the UK, which demonstrates the mobility of their launch system.

Overall, this is encouraging news, but I still wouldn’t rate Astra as a buy right now since their revenue is so dependent on launch, which seems to have a demand problem. Astra’s new rocket is cool, but it’s only going to work out for them if demand increases vastly beyond current levels.

https://spacenews.com/astra-reveals-details-of-next-larger-rocket/

https://spacenews.com/astra-to-launch-from-u-k-spaceport/
« Last Edit: May 20, 2022, 03:32:33 PM by Herbert Derp »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Herbert Derp - I appreciated your analysis earlier, but I predicted bad markets ahead when I sold RKLB at $8/share.  I was right, and RKLB is $5/share.  I expect it to hit $3/share within 1 to 12 months.

Look at RKLB since Thanksgiving, down 67%.  Amazon down 40%!   The market's beliefs should be shattered on June 11 when inflation data comes out, but markets can maintain denial for months.

Earlier this week I sold off all individual stocks for reasons completely unrelated to Rocket Lab.  But Rocket Lab was part of that sell off, which you can read about in the journal area of the forum, if anyone is curious.

I sold RKLB somewhere near $8/share, and everyone else can get out just under $5/share right now.  This past week Walmart announced earnings, and their stock dropped more in one day than any day in the past 40 years.  Target followed, the stock lost 1/4th of it's value in a day.  Consumer spending is critical to the U.S. economy, and two of the biggest, well-run retail stores just took historic losses.  Look at the data - this does not end well.

jnw

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This past week Walmart announced earnings, and their stock dropped more in one day than any day in the past 40 years.  Target followed, the stock lost 1/4th of it's value in a day.  Consumer spending is critical to the U.S. economy, and two of the biggest, well-run retail stores just took historic losses.  Look at the data - this does not end well.

Yeah and we've had seven weeks of losses in the S&P 500 which hasn't happened since March 2021 -- i.e. seven consecutive red weekly candles on stock charts.  The dow has had 8 consecutive red weekly candles, which hasn't happened since 1923.

I know I'm timing the market, but I am going to wait until there is a strong weekly green candle before buying some more VTI.  The market must prove itself before I invest.  It also must have a follow through day where the candle is above the 21 day moving average.

alcon835

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Or....and this is CRAZY, I know. If you have a long-term view of RKLB (10+ year horizon), you can keep accumulating throughout this recession and reap the rewards in 5+ years.

jnw

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Or....and this is CRAZY, I know. If you have a long-term view of RKLB (10+ year horizon), you can keep accumulating throughout this recession and reap the rewards in 5+ years.

Is it true, the saying I believe it is, that only 1 out of 10 startups succeed?  Do I have the ratios right?  I can "hope" RKLB will go up but the market doesn't care what I want.  I rather just invest in VTI when the market is down because it always goes back up, guaranteed.

I might consider an actively managed position in RKLB after it decreases in price a bit, goes sideways for a while, starts getting record earnings, has some sort of disruptive innovative tech other competitor's don't have.  Then set a trailing stop loss accordingly.  If it gets to big enough I might set the trailing stop loss to be -20%.  I'll add to my position as it continues to grow.    (Basically a William O'Neil CANSLIM approach.)
« Last Edit: May 21, 2022, 09:29:08 AM by JenniferW »

Herbert Derp

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I think Rocket Lab will make it through the recession just fine. They picked the perfect time to raise capital, and are now sitting on about $600M of cash. They can use this cash to weather the storm and develop their next generation technology like Neutron. Meanwhile, the recession will paralyze most of the competition because they won’t be able to raise capital like Rocket Lab did.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2022, 04:42:41 PM by Herbert Derp »

Herbert Derp

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I sold RKLB somewhere near $8/share, and everyone else can get out just under $5/share right now.  This past week Walmart announced earnings, and their stock dropped more in one day than any day in the past 40 years.  Target followed, the stock lost 1/4th of it's value in a day.  Consumer spending is critical to the U.S. economy, and two of the biggest, well-run retail stores just took historic losses.  Look at the data - this does not end well.

I guess the way I see it, everything is going down right now. I may as well just ride the market through this dip the same way as last time.

MustacheAndaHalf

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I think Rocket Lab will make it through the recession just fine. They picked the perfect time to raise capital, and are now sitting on about $750M of cash. They can use this cash to weather the storm and develop their next generation technology like Neutron. Meanwhile, the recession will paralyze most of the competition because they won’t be able to raise capital like Rocket Lab did.
One big risk I see is Rocket Lab falls near $3/share, and then Elon Musk offers to buy the company for $4.20/share (Space X sold shares at $420/share, no surprise).  In that scenario, you could lose money even as Rocket Lab succeeds.

Could Rocket Lab be sitting on $600 million cash with $150 million debt, per Yahoo Finance?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RKLB/key-statistics?p=RKLB

I looked at various competitors, and Rocket Lab's financials look better than any of them.  RKLB has more cash, and spends it more slowly.  You mentioned competitors being paralyzed - for some, maybe it's permanent.

I don't know if Yahoo Finance has the right data for Redwire, but it shows $6M cash on $90M in debts.  Then again, their quarterly report (from 10 days ago) mentions an arrangement for "enhanced liquidity", which sounds like they're in trouble.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDW/key-statistics?p=RDW
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/redwire-corporation-reports-first-quarter-200500497.html

Herbert Derp

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Yeah, it’s going to be a rough time for many of these space startups. Rocket Lab may have an opportunity to make more acquisitions.

You can find Rocket Lab’s financials here. Not sure how the level of detail compares to Yahoo Finance.
https://investors.rocketlabusa.com/news/news-details/2022/Rocket-Lab-Announces-First-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-and-Guidance-for-Second-Quarter-2022/default.aspx

MustacheAndaHalf

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Yeah, it’s going to be a rough time for many of these space startups. Rocket Lab may have an opportunity to make more acquisitions.

You can find Rocket Lab’s financials here. Not sure how the level of detail compares to Yahoo Finance.
https://investors.rocketlabusa.com/news/news-details/2022/Rocket-Lab-Announces-First-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-and-Guidance-for-Second-Quarter-2022/default.aspx
Your link, annual report:
"(in thousands ..."
"Cash and cash equivalents ... $603,144"

Yahoo Finance:
"Total Cash (mrq)   603.14M"

Looks like a good match.  You said this is a dip like last time?  Did you mean March 2020?  I had to check if you lived in the UK when you said that!  Sounds like a very British way to keep a stiff upper lip during a 35% drop.

I predict 2022-2023 will be worse than March 2020.  The S&P 500 ETF "SPY" peaked at $480 and is $390 now, and I predict it falls below $300.  I'm already betting on it with -100% equity exposure through ETFs that hold derivatives.  If you're investing in RKLB and other US stocks, you're taking the other side of that bet.

What if someone offered you a bet: markets will drop 20% from here (SPY $390) within the next 12 months.  Would you bet that decline does not occur?  What if you were given 2:1 odds, meaning you triple your money if no correction happens?

AlanStache

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Would there be regulatory issues with spacex buying rocketlab?  would this make the industry too consolidated?  I thought us govt people have specifically spoken about wanting alternate companies going into space to prevent a spacex monopoly.  Unless there were viable alternatives at the time of the acquisition, but that seem unlikely in the next few years. 

Herbert Derp

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I looked at various competitors, and Rocket Lab's financials look better than any of them.  RKLB has more cash, and spends it more slowly.  You mentioned competitors being paralyzed - for some, maybe it's permanent.

I don't know if Yahoo Finance has the right data for Redwire, but it shows $6M cash on $90M in debts.  Then again, their quarterly report (from 10 days ago) mentions an arrangement for "enhanced liquidity", which sounds like they're in trouble.

That looks really rough for Redwire. Their market cap is only $235M right now. If companies like Redwire keep getting hammered by the recession, I wonder if Rocket Lab will have a chance to buy them out? Rocket Lab did mention that they were still looking to make additional acquisitions in their latest conference call. I personally think there’s a lot of synergy between Rocket Lab and Redwire and it would be interesting to see these companies come together.

I also took a look at Astra’s financials. They have $161M in cash and a loss of $85M in Q1 2022. Last quarter, they had $325M in cash. In comparison, Rocket Lab has $600M in cash and a loss of $26M in Q1 2022. Rocket Lab has more than triple the cash of Astra, and Astra has more than triple the loss of Rocket Lab! At this rate, Astra will run out of money in 2-3 quarters! I don’t think they will go bankrupt, but raising the cash they need to survive will be difficult in this market. Maybe the US government will bail them out somehow.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2022, 05:00:02 PM by Herbert Derp »

Herbert Derp

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Would there be regulatory issues with spacex buying rocketlab?  would this make the industry too consolidated?  I thought us govt people have specifically spoken about wanting alternate companies going into space to prevent a spacex monopoly.  Unless there were viable alternatives at the time of the acquisition, but that seem unlikely in the next few years.

I doubt SpaceX would be interested in buying Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab doesn’t have anything that SpaceX needs, their carbon fiber rocket technology is fundamentally different and incompatible with what SpaceX is doing, and SpaceX would much rather do things in house. In my opinion, it would be easier for SpaceX to just build their own version of whatever Rocket Lab is doing than to actually acquire Rocket Lab.

On the other hand, I do think it is likely that Rocket Lab will acquire one or more struggling space companies during the recession.

Herbert Derp

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SpaceX's valuation has now reached $125B! Compare this to Rocket Lab's measly $2.12B valuation. If you think the huge gap in valuation is interesting given the similarities between the two companies, you're not the only one. Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu seems to think along the same lines, and believes that the disconnect in valuation between the two companies will decrease over time.

Quote
Rocket Lab USA's (RKLB) growth and margins for several business lines are expected to inflect over the next year, Deutsche Bank said in a note.

The company's new and larger Neutron rocket will be fully sold out for two to three years ahead of its first voyage, analyst Edison Yu said.

Yu said Rocket Lab's Space Systems segment is unappreciated.

"Looking ahead, the stock may be volatile due to tactical factors ... but we think the enormous disconnect in valuation will likely compress relative to SpaceX," the analysts said.

maizefolk

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SpaceX's valuation has now reached $125B! Compare this to Rocket Lab's measly $2.12B valuation. If you think the huge gap in valuation is interesting given the similarities between the two companies, you're not the only one.

In defense of the big differential, so far this year Rocketlab has launched on the order of 0.2% of the payload to orbit of SpaceX*, so the market is valuing RocketLab ~10x as high as SpaceX in terms of price to launch.**

*Very rough estimate based on the payload of each rocket and the number of launches so far this year.

*Yes RocketLab also has a satellite manufacturing arm but SpaceX also has Starlink so let's pretend those cancel out.

lutorm

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I guess the way I see it, everything is going down right now. I may as well just ride the market through this dip the same way as last time.
Not quite everything, SpaceX's stock valuation is up from $56 to $70, a 25% increase: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/musk-may-sell-spacex-shares-to-fund-twitter-deal-new-york-post

lutorm

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In defense of the big differential, so far this year Rocketlab has launched on the order of 0.2% of the payload to orbit of SpaceX*, so the market is valuing RocketLab ~10x as high as SpaceX in terms of price to launch.**
I heard somewhere that year to date, SpaceX has launched something like 85% of worldwide mass to orbit. (And most of that mass is Starlink.) Pretty nuts.

maizefolk

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In defense of the big differential, so far this year Rocketlab has launched on the order of 0.2% of the payload to orbit of SpaceX*, so the market is valuing RocketLab ~10x as high as SpaceX in terms of price to launch.**
I heard somewhere that year to date, SpaceX has launched something like 85% of worldwide mass to orbit. (And most of that mass is Starlink.) Pretty nuts.

Yeah, if I'm counting right SpaceX has launched 22 times in the first 21 weeks of this year (14 starlink missions and 8 external customer missions). That's enough lift to put half a million tons into low earth orbit*.

The numbers are close enough that it makes me wonder if they developed the starlink launch schedule for 2022 with a goal of breaking the >1 launch/week barrier this year.

*The true mass to orbit number is lower since not all launches were to low earth orbit and not all launches use Falcon 9's maximum (with booster recovery) payload capacity.

alcon835

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I guess the way I see it, everything is going down right now. I may as well just ride the market through this dip the same way as last time.
Not quite everything, SpaceX's stock valuation is up from $56 to $70, a 25% increase: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/musk-may-sell-spacex-shares-to-fund-twitter-deal-new-york-post

Valuation of a private company really doesn't mean anything, though. If SpaceX were a publicly traded organization, it would have dropped the same as everything else.

lutorm

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I guess the way I see it, everything is going down right now. I may as well just ride the market through this dip the same way as last time.
Not quite everything, SpaceX's stock valuation is up from $56 to $70, a 25% increase: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/musk-may-sell-spacex-shares-to-fund-twitter-deal-new-york-post

Valuation of a private company really doesn't mean anything, though. If SpaceX were a publicly traded organization, it would have dropped the same as everything else.
It's not the same as a public market price, obviously, but it does mean something, in that there are investors that are willing to also pay that higher price, even now.

AlanStache

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...
It's not the same as a public market price, obviously, but it does mean something, in that there are investors that are willing to also pay that higher price, even now.

That is the asking price to buy SpaceX?  But do we know how many takers they have at that price?  I dont fully understand how private companies like this work when you want to buy into them from the outside.  What I have seen elsewhere is than a valuation is made based on standard multiples of revenue or profit. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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...
It's not the same as a public market price, obviously, but it does mean something, in that there are investors that are willing to also pay that higher price, even now.

That is the asking price to buy SpaceX?  But do we know how many takers they have at that price?  I dont fully understand how private companies like this work when you want to buy into them from the outside.  What I have seen elsewhere is than a valuation is made based on standard multiples of revenue or profit.
I don't recall where I heard it exactly, but I think it was CNBC"s David Faber who mentioned that private equitiy (PE) valuations are inflated right now.  Experts in PE know the deal, but prices do not reflect conditions that have already impacted public markets.  That information is probably less useful over time, but I wouldn't trust PE values at the moment.

Didn't Elon Musk manipulate a funding round so SpaceX stock was priced at $420/share (before 10:1 stock split)?  I'm not sure it makes sense to trust that SpaceX has gone up 25% in an environment where RocketLab has lost over half it's value.  Mr Musk will have to compare the losses in TSLA stock (-28% YTD) with those in SpaceX (? YTD) and decide what mixture to sell.  Mr Musk offered $54.20/share for Twitter, and discovered he was very wrong about the price, pointing to the excuse of bot numbers to back out.  I wouldn't trust his assessment of SpaceX stock, but would wait for a funding round where actual buyers decide the price.

lutorm

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It's not the same as a public market price, obviously, but it does mean something, in that there are investors that are willing to also pay that higher price, even now.

That is the asking price to buy SpaceX?  But do we know how many takers they have at that price?  I dont fully understand how private companies like this work when you want to buy into them from the outside.  What I have seen elsewhere is than a valuation is made based on standard multiples of revenue or profit.
We know there were at least some takers.

I think in general private valuations are based on an analysis of the financials in the absence of any market signal, but any funding rounds have a strong pull on the valuation such that if someone's actually paid $X, that tends to be the valuation, too.


maizefolk

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Astra had another launch failure tonight. https://twitter.com/astra/status/1536046415679393793

They are currently batting 2 for 7 at successful launches. Space remains hard.

BicycleB

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RocketLab recently won a new contract in the non-launch space business, this one to build solar cells for a 2025 mission that another company (Ball Aerospace) is conducting for NASA. The mission, called GLIDE, is to study the earth's atmosphere on behalf of NOAA.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220609005322/en/Rocket-Lab-selected-by-Ball-Aerospace-to-Power-NASA%E2%80%99s-GLIDE-Spacecraft

https://spacewatch.global/2022/06/rocket-lab-selected-by-ball-aerospace-to-power-nasa-glide-mission/

https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-selected-by-ball-aerospace-to-power-nasas-glide-spacecraft-2/

I didn't see a contract price, even on Rocketlab's press release / website update, but I assume this slightly strengthens the contention that RocketLab is succeeding in its plans.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2022, 11:38:05 AM by BicycleB »

BicycleB

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At $4/share, is RKLB a buy now? If not, when does it become one?

(as I write, most recent quote dropped from $4.03 to $4.02)
« Last Edit: June 14, 2022, 11:40:02 AM by BicycleB »

MustacheAndaHalf

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I sold RKLB at around $8/share back in April.
Earlier this week I sold off all individual stocks for reasons completely unrelated to Rocket Lab.  But Rocket Lab was part of that sell off, ...

The S&P 500 fell 10.1% since Jun 7, and Nasdaq 100 fell 11.0%.  Over that same time, RKLB fell 16.6%.

My prediction: RKLB hits $3/sh before it hits $5/sh.

While it helps RLKB fell 50% in 2 months, the prediction is also based on the S&P 500 falling further and RKLB falling at least as far as the S&P 500 (probably further).  So with apologies to the great discussions and contributors in this thread, I would short RKLB here instead of buying it.  (It's actually better to find competitors that are in worse shape than RKLB, and that fell at least as far.  I do not have a short position on RKLB)
« Last Edit: June 14, 2022, 12:49:35 PM by MustacheAndaHalf »

BicycleB

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Gizmodo summarizes the CAPSTONE mission, now scheduled for takeoff Monday 27th via Electron from Rocket Labs's New Zealand site.

https://gizmodo.com/nasa-capstone-artemis-lunar-gateway-1849104950

BicycleB

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My prediction: RKLB hits $3/sh before it hits $5/sh.


You're probably right!

Capstone mission seems to have taken off fine, yet RKLB stock price was $3.70 yesterday. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/rocket-lab-launch-of-capstone-begins-nasa-return-to-the-moon.html

Unconfident of predicting prices precisely, I picked up a few more nibbles.

Herbert Derp

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In recent news, Rocket Lab is expanding into a new 24,000+ sq ft facility in Auckland. They will use this facility to house a new production line for satellite components as well as to assist with the Electron and Neutron programs.

Last week, Rocket Lab had yet another successful launch! This makes five successful launches this year over seven months, and eight back-to-back successful launches since the last failure. They really do seem to be reaching a monthly launch cadence. Compare this to Astra's track record this year of three launch attempts and two failures, and Virgin Orbit's two launches this year. Rocket Lab has launched more payloads into orbit this year than both Astra and Virgin Orbit combined.

Earlier this month, Rocket Lab introduced a new "Responsive Space Program" where Rocket Lab can partner with other companies to have a rocket on call to be ready to rapidly launch a payload into orbit within 24 hours of payload arrival to the launch site. I wonder if we will see any of these launches soon?

I am eager to learn more about what is going on with the Neutron factory in Virginia. There have been no updates since the groundbreaking ceremony three months ago. Hopefully they will give an update on Neutron in their next earnings call on August 11th.

In other news, Relativity Space has reached a $1.2B order backlog, despite having launched nothing to orbit. They are still gearing up to launch their first Terran 1 prototype rocket later this summer. Compare this to Rocket Lab's $551M order backlog. Clearly, there is more money to be made from larger rockets like the Terran R. Rocket Lab can't get the Neutron flying fast enough!
« Last Edit: July 20, 2022, 11:06:05 PM by Herbert Derp »

alcon835

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I am eager to learn more about what is going on with the Neutron factory in Virginia. There have been no updates since the groundbreaking ceremony three months ago. Hopefully they will give an update on Neutron in their next earnings call on August 11th.

In other news, Relativity Space has reached a $1.2B order backlog, despite having launched nothing to orbit. They are still gearing up to launch their first Terran 1 prototype rocket later this summer. Compare this to Rocket Lab's $551M order backlog. Clearly, there is more money to be made from larger rockets like the Terran R. Rocket Lab can't get the Neutron flying fast enough!

I don't think we'll hear much until it's closer to completion in 2024. I mean, we'll probably get little "it's on schedule" sort of updates, but I'm not sure what they can tell us at this point since we're still almost 2 years from it being real.

maizefolk

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Last week RocketLab was going to try to demonstrate the capability to launch two rockets from Mahia within a nine-day window with their 5th and 6th launches of 2022. However launch #6 got delayed as a result of updates to the payload on the second launch. Not RL's fault, but certainly a missed opportunity to test how well they would manage the sort of launch cadence they'll need to be competitive in the market we're seeing develop for commercial space.*

*The same week SpaceX launched their 32nd rocket of the year, breaking the record they set last year of 31 total launches in a year from a single provider. SpaceX is currently averaging one launch per 6.4 days since the start of 2022. Some much shorter individual launch-to-launch intervals in there.

Herbert Derp

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I don't think we'll hear much until it's closer to completion in 2024. I mean, we'll probably get little "it's on schedule" sort of updates, but I'm not sure what they can tell us at this point since we're still almost 2 years from it being real.

I'm hoping that someone can just drive past the build site or something and see if the Neutron factory is getting built. This happens on a regular basis with companies like SpaceX and Tesla.

Last week RocketLab was going to try to demonstrate the capability to launch two rockets from Mahia within a nine-day window with their 5th and 6th launches of 2022. However launch #6 got delayed as a result of updates to the payload on the second launch. Not RL's fault, but certainly a missed opportunity to test how well they would manage the sort of launch cadence they'll need to be competitive in the market we're seeing develop for commercial space.*

*The same week SpaceX launched their 32nd rocket of the year, breaking the record they set last year of 31 total launches in a year from a single provider. SpaceX is currently averaging one launch per 6.4 days since the start of 2022. Some much shorter individual launch-to-launch intervals in there.

Yeah, NRO needs to update software on their payload, bummer. At least Rocket Lab is maintaining a higher launch cadence than any other company besides SpaceX. Only SpaceX and the Chinese and Russian space agencies have launched more rockets this year than Rocket Lab.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2022, 08:46:36 PM by Herbert Derp »

maizefolk

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At least Rocket Lab is maintaining a higher launch cadence than any other company besides SpaceX. Only SpaceX and the Chinese and Russian space agencies have launched more rockets this year than Rocket Lab.

Do you know how far in advance RocketLab typically announces their launch dates?

Right now Electron has a one-launch lead over old-space ULA's Atlas platform, but Atlas is currently scheduled for their next launch in 11 days. With the delayed launch from the Mahia LC-1B pad and nothing else scheduled between now and then (as far as I can tell), that launch would let Atlas/ULA tie Electron/RL for the #5 slot behind Falcon 9, Soyuz, Long March 4, Long March 2, and Atlas.

Herbert Derp

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Rocket Lab hasn't been very open about their launch schedule. They only seem to announce upcoming launch dates until just a few weeks before launch.

AlanStache

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I'm hoping that someone can just drive past the build site or something and see if the Neutron factory is getting built. This happens on a regular basis with companies like SpaceX and Tesla.

Is the address public, dont really want to wander about the eastern shore?  I have not gone up to wallops, no clue what is visible from public areas.  We get told that we could maybe/sort of see launches sometimes but have never had good luck with that. 

Herbert Derp

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Is the address public, dont really want to wander about the eastern shore?  I have not gone up to wallops, no clue what is visible from public areas.  We get told that we could maybe/sort of see launches sometimes but have never had good luck with that.

I did some digging around and looks like the facility is going to be located here:
32355 Causeway Rd, Assawoman, VA 23302
37.867194, -75.508750

This article shows the location and preliminary plans for the Neutron facility:
https://www.easternshorepost.com/2021/07/22/zoning-approvals-clear-the-way-for-rocket-production-in-accomack/

If you live in the area, you should just be able to drive over to 32355 Causeway Rd and see if that chicken farm is still there or not. Hopefully they have demolished it and are working on building the Neutron factory!

Also FYI, Rocket Lab's Electron launch pad is located here:
Wallops Island - Launch Pad 0-A

If you want to view a rocket launch from Wallops, you should go to the official rocket launch viewing area:
Rocket Launch Viewing Area
34267 Wright Rd, Wallops Island, VA 23337


Although you may get better views from Assateague Island (the beach may be closed during rocket launches, not sure?):
https://goo.gl/maps/UAWZ3Y4TWuVe7jfz5
« Last Edit: July 25, 2022, 05:45:24 PM by Herbert Derp »

AlanStache

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Is about a 2hr drive.  Will see how this or next weekend shape up and if it would be nice to go for a drive.  Maybe hit up the visitor center too.  Looks like a gate just past the farm but dont expect security will be to hard core on a saturday; "I just want to see the rocket factory", "why", "to tell people on the internet about it..." yeah that will work great.


BicycleB

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@AlanStache, looking forward to your report! :)

Herbert Derp

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Is about a 2hr drive.  Will see how this or next weekend shape up and if it would be nice to go for a drive.  Maybe hit up the visitor center too.  Looks like a gate just past the farm but dont expect security will be to hard core on a saturday; "I just want to see the rocket factory", "why", "to tell people on the internet about it..." yeah that will work great.

Hahaha, that would be a hilarious conversation! That gate leads directly down to the Wallops Island launch pads, and everything past the gate is access restricted. But all you have to do is drive up to the gate, not past it. If the security guard asks what you're doing you can just tell them you were looking for the visitor center lol

BTW, the address 32355 Causeway Rd, Assawoman, VA 23302 seems somewhat questionable. I am not sure if that is actually a real address or if Google just made it up somehow! If you try and put that into your navigation system, it might send you to the wrong location. I would recommend navigating to the GPS coordinates:
37.866210, -75.509760
« Last Edit: July 25, 2022, 06:17:21 PM by Herbert Derp »

AlanStache

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While cooking dinner I was trying to figure out what actor would try to manipulate someone into driving out there for a in person report.  Like who would not have there own people or just pay someone local near the facility or just buy commercial space imagery but still care about a building breaking ground?  Seems like any serious organization would have far better ways to get intel than asking some random guy online to maybe drive up there in the next few weeks.  So I am mostly sure Herbert is not some Venezuelan spy, maizefolk on the other hand I am 100% sure he is working for Hydra. 

maizefolk

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Maybe the goal isn't to directly gather intelligence from your observations but instead learn more about RocketLab's security procedures from watching how they respond to a random guy from the internet driving by to take a look?

That's the backstory I'd write anyway. As I while away the hours at my desk in the bowels of the Organization of Democratic Intelligence Networks.

Herbert Derp

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@maizefolk, aren't you a customer of Maxar? Maybe you can get us some up-to-date satellite imagery! :P

maizefolk

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Don't remind me. I've still got to find $40k in the budget to cover the cost of a handful of photography runs in September.

For something like this, PlantLabs/SkySat is the way to go. 0.65m resolution, much more frequent revisit times (daily if cloud cover cooperates) so you can track changes over time, and lower cost, particularly with academic discounts.

AlanStache

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Crazy - looks like you can buy a la carte with a cc from https://www.spymesat.com/web/#/Home, with images are cheap at 5$.  Did not bother signing up.

Herbert Derp

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Crazy - looks like you can buy a la carte with a cc from https://www.spymesat.com/web/#/Home, with images are cheap at 5$.  Did not bother signing up.

According to that website, the most recent images of the Neutron factory location are by Maxar on 5/30/2022, for $40. Interesting. The website shows a low-resolution preview image, which I was able to download and attach to this post. Based on that, it seems that as of 5/30/2022, the chicken farm buildings were demolished but the foundation work for the new buildings has yet to commence.

I'll check this website periodically for new images and share them here! Amazing what we've been able to discover just by clicking around on the Internet today.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2022, 09:23:05 PM by Herbert Derp »

maizefolk

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It's getting so no one is going to want to hire a shadowy and probably-evil non government organization or international men of mystery.

lutorm

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In other news, Relativity Space has reached a $1.2B order backlog, despite having launched nothing to orbit. They are still gearing up to launch their first Terran 1 prototype rocket later this summer. Compare this to Rocket Lab's $551M order backlog. Clearly, there is more money to be made from larger rockets like the Terran R. Rocket Lab can't get the Neutron flying fast enough!
Not to mention https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/19/relativity-and-impulse-want-to-go-to-mars-as-early-as-2024/.

This is pretty ridiculous. The press is going "these companies may beat SpaceX to Mars" because they put out some press release with neither Relativity nor Impulse ever having built anything. Now, both of them are led by competent ex-SpaceXers, but timelines about going to Mars in 2024 without having flown a single piece of hardware are clearly fictional.

Herbert Derp

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Do you know how far in advance RocketLab typically announces their launch dates?

Rocket Lab just announced the date of their next launch which is scheduled for August 2nd. Just four days from now! So not very far in advance lol

Herbert Derp

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Re: Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?
« Reply #399 on: August 01, 2022, 11:32:43 PM »
The rocket is on the pad, t-minus 5 minutes. Looks like this launch attempt may be cancelled due to high winds. This is another booster with the reusable hardware, but they do not plan on recovering it. This is the second such mission I’ve seen so far where they are throwing away a reusable booster.

I wonder what Rocket Lab’s reason is for throwing away reusable boosters—this seems like a waste of money. Do they lack the manufacturing capacity to build both types of booster at once? Is the reusable hardware so cheap that it doesn’t matter if they throw it away?

https://youtu.be/S6PxSE29hQU
« Last Edit: August 01, 2022, 11:35:35 PM by Herbert Derp »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!