@MustacheAndaHalf ; The interesting thing about economic growth is that, if it is due to increased total factory productivity there is no need for inflation to appear. If there is no increase in productivity, well, it's hard NOT to have inflation.
The question one must ask themselves now:
A) Has the pandemic spurred changes in technology (or business' investments in technology) that have increased productivity? Voila! Very low inflation.
Or
B) Has there been no increase in productivity, just a mere suppression of consumer demand (re: Soviet Union economic system) that will be unleashed once people are allowed to roam free. Bam! Get ready for inflation!!
Take a look around your workplace and how do you see a post-pandemic world? Of course, it varies according to your work place. Here's what I see when I take a look.
Less business travel. People will still travel, just not as much or as often. This means fewer first class plane tickets booked, fewer posh downtown hotels/conference rooms booked and less big splurges at restaurants/catering companies. Winners: Companies not spending the money will have now more profits. Losers: economy airplane passengers, hotels, restaurants, car rental companies. These workers (at the margin) who are not re-hired, etc. will now be free to work elsewhere, thus boosting the aggregate macro-economic productivity of the country.
Untethering. People will now be free to work from anywhere, or just about. Some people will choose to leave HCOL areas for lower COL areas. This will be a boon for the areas receiving people as well as HCOL areas, as it will free up more space in HCOL areas for new arrivals. Thus, productivity rises. Losers: I can't really see any losers here.
Education market and health care. Two markets that are over-ripe for disruption via video conferencing, or whatever. No idea how this plays out. But there are billions to be earned here by the ones who figure it out. Why couldn't a university post a professor's lectures for the semester online, for the next 20 years instead of making this poor guy go the room and say the same thing year after year? Same thing for health care. How to streamline that bloated carcass of waste? No idea, but it needs to happen. If we can cut a few billion off of these big ticket items and have the same results in the aggregate, this would be an enormous boost in productivity.
New hobbies; How many people learned to cook or garden as a result of the pandemic? Not many, I'm sure, but if that results in less restaurant meals and less shopping for food, then this would be a sign of increased productivity. Winner: the hobbyist who now has more money in their pocket (as well as the suppliers of their new hobby) Losers: The former providers, who, at the margin, are now available to find new work. Thus, aggregate productivity increases.
I'm sure there are other things that I can't think of and there's a good chance I'm wrong. I kinda geek-out on this economic stuff. Most people find it boring, so if you can't sleep at night, come back and read the post a few times until you fall asleep! :)