Author Topic: Recession pending?  (Read 3722 times)

thedigitalone

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Recession pending?
« on: June 25, 2018, 02:18:07 PM »
NY Times article discussing the feds interest rates yield curve may be signaling a pending recession: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html

evme

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2018, 02:40:36 PM »
I read this. But if you look at the very end it has this caveat: "In the current environment, I think its a less reliable indicator than it has been in the past, said Matthew Luzzetti, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank."


DreamFIRE

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Zamboni

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2018, 03:05:30 PM »
I think the unfettered axe of deregulation will once again lead to widespread corruption that will eventually cause a recession . . . but it usually takes a few years for the stock market to catch up with the damage being done. In the meantime, I'm just keeping my asset allocation the same and continuing to buy according to my long term plan.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2018, 06:08:59 PM »
A recession has been pending ever since the recovery from the last recession.

;)

pecunia

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2018, 07:32:49 PM »
Quote
A recession has been pending ever since the recovery from the last recession..

Good comment.

Some people think we never have recovered.  Stock market has done well and there are some good paying jobs out there.  However, there is supposed to be a vast number of underemployed and unemployed that are not accounted for in the system.  So when they say full employment, we may not be there yet.  Maybe the economy can still grow to make better use of these people and as they spend money it will grow some more. 

ender

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2018, 07:34:02 PM »
A recession has been pending ever since the recovery from the last recession.

;)

Nah, it was being called even before the recovery.

marty998

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #7 on: June 27, 2018, 06:32:52 AM »
Did someone say the Top is in again?


aboatguy

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2018, 10:05:50 AM »
Did someone say the Top is in again?


aboatguy

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #9 on: June 27, 2018, 10:07:13 AM »


I read the article and it seems to me that "writers/experts/companies/etc et al" find the need to promote hyperbole in order to gain readers/ viewers/followers/customers etc

Hard to sell a product that guarantees to be "average" or to get readers to read an article with a headline " remain calm" short-term interest rates are rising and bonds are falling as the fed unloads the portfolio it bought in response to the great recession.   


I guarantee that the World economy will go down, up and sideways some time this year.  If I could ascertain, when, how much and in which order I'd be a rich man.  Since my crystal ball is broken I will continue to drip money into investment accounts IAW the my investment plan.   

Mike

« Last Edit: June 27, 2018, 10:24:52 AM by aboatguy »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #10 on: June 27, 2018, 08:28:34 PM »
 
Quote
In the past 60 years, every recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve, according to research by the San Francisco Fed. And there's been only one false positive--in the mid-1960s.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3366059-yield-curve-perilously-close-predicting-recession-new-york-times

toganet

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2018, 11:24:31 AM »
Quote
A recession has been pending ever since the recovery from the last recession..

Good comment.

Some people think we never have recovered.  Stock market has done well and there are some good paying jobs out there.  However, there is supposed to be a vast number of underemployed and unemployed that are not accounted for in the system.  So when they say full employment, we may not be there yet.  Maybe the economy can still grow to make better use of these people and as they spend money it will grow some more.

The figure you are alluding to is the Labor Participation rate.  It peaked in 2000 and has mostly gone down since, and has not rebounded as predicted when the wider economy recovered from the Great Recession.  The reasons for this are complex and debatable.  Some factors include demographics, automation, and opiates -- as well as a mismatch between skill demand and local labor markets.  To the last point: folks used to migrate around the country to where the jobs were -- they don't as much any more and no one knows why.

GrayGhost

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2018, 11:43:13 AM »
In the end, the Starks are always right... Winter is coming.

So yes, it's a truism that the next recession is coming, however in my opinion it will come sooner than later. It's been nearing on ten years since the last one so the time is right, and there are several major issues with our economy that haven't come home to roost yet. As well, without getting too political, I fear that a major political development will shock the markets before the end of POTUS's first term.

I have taken the appropriate actions for myself and I wish everyone the best in weathering the storms to come. With that said, I profess no expertise in predicting the timing of the next recession, and I can't even speculate as to when it will happen beyond a generalized within the next two years sort of thing.

Tyson

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Re: Recession pending?
« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2018, 01:35:46 PM »
We are ALREADY in a recession.  We have been, since April 11, 2017.  Ya'll just missed it!

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/