This garbage comes out when the market is doing great. You can't cry DOOM right after a crash, right?
So, the chart of the S&P 500 in that link clearly shows that the market is going to crash...... in 2013. But it didn't. That should tell anyone today that no one predicted shit or knows what's gonna happen year by year.
We call overvalued Market peaks 'bubbles', but the equally-pointy floors of crashes are also bubbles -which is why Stocks immediately start steeply climbing right back up.
The real value is a nice, smooth line going up about 10% a year.
Short term -it's nothing like that. Long term -that's what you'll get. This should be teachable in like 5 minutes to any adult willing to learn from known facts.
So, I guess I don't get the worry? Can't you show your friend how the 'jaggy, uppy lines' reverse all the 'downy, bummer lines' and give you all your money back, and then some? And there's pretty much always a christmas bonus every year that the chart doesn't show.
Tell 'em, "It's what filthy rich people do, and those chumps work money like the Navy works yer Mom."
Then, duck right when he swings, and tell 'em you saw that comin', too.
The Shiller PE Ratio looks back at the past 10 years to kinda gauge market value. It's at ~26 now. That's high, but not insane high. It's a bright warning sign, though IMO.
The market's avg. Bull run is like ~3.8 years, I think? We're at ~6-ish? So, we're statistically due for a fall -another warning sign.
But the longest Bull was like ~9+ years, and you don't know what's gonna happen next, so you just ride it long term and ignore the shit out of it if it does temporarily crash -or shove some more money up it if you got any spares sitting around.
The stats are that less people are in the market after the 2008 crash than were in it before. So maybe people had to cash out, or some got scared, but clearly few saw the crash as a golden time to dive in.
"Buy Low, Sell High." It's the simplest bit of investment info that everyone already knows. They just need to learn that it totally works, and long term you'll get ahead as long as there's like about a decade at least between the buying and the selling.
Sorry, just a long rant about this sort of thing.