Author Topic: Ready for a Correction  (Read 91041 times)

Dexterous

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #100 on: August 23, 2015, 11:26:54 PM »
The SSE Composite Index hit -9%... shit just got real!
« Last Edit: August 24, 2015, 01:42:29 AM by Dexterous »

a1smith

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #101 on: August 24, 2015, 05:33:06 AM »
China Slowdown Worries Rattle Asian Markets - WSJ News Alert

Chinese stocks plummeted Monday, erasing gains for the year, as fears about the deepening effects of a slowdown in the world's No. 2 economy rattled investors world-wide.
 
Stock markets slid across Asia and a number of regional currencies fell to fresh multiyear lows. China's main stock index, which closed 8.5% lower on Monday, has tipped into negative territory for the year after gaining as much as 60% through its June peak. Benchmarks in Japan and Australia both shed nearly 4%.

At the heart of the selloff are questions about the severity of the slowdown in China's once-highflying economy.


Here is the article the alert links to:

China Shares Wipe Out All Gains This Year

Note: if you don't have WSJ subscription just google the title of the article and select it from search list.  Then you can read the whole article.


Dow futures are down around 400 points now; looks like we're in for -4% or more just like Australia, Japan, etc.

Mr. Green

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #102 on: August 24, 2015, 05:35:37 AM »
Imagine my surprise this morning when I woke up to the Dow Futures showing another 400 point drop! Statistically, I was betting on a ~2% bounce back. If the drop holds throughout the day then we will certainly have our correction. I doubt it's going to have much staying power since it would be down 7% in 3 days. All things are possible though.

CorpRaider

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #103 on: August 24, 2015, 05:49:32 AM »
500+ -700 is what I'm seeing.  Not that it makes a ton of difference.  #blackmonday
« Last Edit: August 24, 2015, 06:11:05 AM by CorpRaider »

lovesasa

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #104 on: August 24, 2015, 06:29:36 AM »
So... We should be buying now, right?

thd7t

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #105 on: August 24, 2015, 06:41:38 AM »
So... We should be buying now, right?
We should be buying always.

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #106 on: August 24, 2015, 06:45:26 AM »
So... We should be buying now, right?
Buy whenever you have the money to invest, regardless how the stock market is doing. Of course, the lower the prices, the better bargain you can get, but since we can't predict anything, you simply invest what you've got.

Penny Lane

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #107 on: August 24, 2015, 07:04:16 AM »
Don't panic, people.  Hold tight today.  Been through these since the '87 deal.

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #108 on: August 24, 2015, 07:05:45 AM »
I really really really hope the market keeps dropping for the rest of the year, but that seems unlikely.

Maybe if the Fed goes crazy with rate hikes or something... I dunno.  Although I'm hopeful that China will continue to slide, and take the rest of the world with them.

I'm pretty sure the Fed rate hike is going to be so minuscule that we'll all laugh about the fear it caused.

China is down but I think it's a blip.  Too many people (and investors) there to seriously collapse their economy, and in the long run they should be more resilient to bears than US or Europe because they have greater freedom to intervene in their markets.

You assume they will perform their interventions competently, and that their interventions would work if implemented perfectly. I don't think there's a good reason to believe either.

I wish my surplus for August were going into the markets, rather than into replacing rotten porch columns and a broken window.

Carlos Danger

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #109 on: August 24, 2015, 07:19:14 AM »
Don't panic, people.  Hold tight today.  Been through these since the '87 deal.

Don't listen to this man, everyone start panicking NOW!!!

Sell, sell, sell and drive those prices down.  TIA.

Guizmo

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #110 on: August 24, 2015, 07:32:18 AM »
Don't panic, people.  Hold tight today.  Been through these since the '87 deal.

Don't listen to this man, everyone start panicking NOW!!!

Sell, sell, sell and drive those prices down.  TIA.

I've already moved everything to cash!

Dexterous

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #111 on: August 24, 2015, 07:36:06 AM »
We might be seeing some records today.

JetBlast

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #112 on: August 24, 2015, 07:37:14 AM »
Whoa! Dow down 950 points!  That's one hell of an open. Should be an interesting day.

Pooperman

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #113 on: August 24, 2015, 07:37:43 AM »
Good news everyone! There's no need to be ready for a correction, it's here!

The Fake Cheap

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #114 on: August 24, 2015, 07:41:42 AM »
Why I hate (all in good fun, that is) these inevitable threads as the markets go down:

1. We get all the expected market timers talking about "buying the dip," "firing their dry powder," "Just waiting for the Schiller Index divided by the ratio of pork bellies to Chinese futures to hit 32.84", etc. Gag me.

2. We get all those in the accumulation phase cheering for everything to get all f'ed up for those who are post-accumulation. It's like fucking dancing on someone's grave or throwing a party in a person's office (while they're still sitting there) who just got laid off, because you get to take over their corner office.

Not to get off topic I had this exact thing happen to me once.  Within an hour of me getting notice out of nowhere that my job was done in a 30 days, a woman who was not getting canned brought a box of her stuff to my desk and was like "Im taking your cube when you leave, where can I put this box?"   I was like...wtf are you serious????

Mr. Green

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #115 on: August 24, 2015, 07:43:22 AM »
I've always found the massive sell off days to be amusing. I remember the last time the Dow dropped 1,000 points 5 or 6 years ago, standing in the lobby of my company's building marveling at how fear can cause such irrational behavior. I'm glad I didn't blow my cash load Friday!

Cwadda

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #116 on: August 24, 2015, 08:06:36 AM »
Should I invest all of my savings into a taxable? I've already maxed my Roth.

lovesasa

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #117 on: August 24, 2015, 08:08:13 AM »
So... We should be buying now, right?
Buy whenever you have the money to invest, regardless how the stock market is doing. Of course, the lower the prices, the better bargain you can get, but since we can't predict anything, you simply invest what you've got.

Fair enough. I've been DCA-ing by putting in $50 a week, but I just got paid and had been thinking about putting in a lump sum soon anyway. Of course then the RMB went down and so some of my money to invest went with it (I get paid in RMB, but invest in USD).

Wait until tomorrow? :/

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #118 on: August 24, 2015, 08:10:20 AM »
Last week I was annoyed that my next 401k and HSA contributions wouldn't hit until August 31. Now it looks like it won't matter :)

I still haven't funded my wife's IRA for the year. I have the cash to do it now, but it'd be tight. I'm trying to decide when to pull trigger. Originally, I was just going to wait until I filed taxes, so I would know how much to put in traditional vs. Roth (Last year, I had to re-characterize my contributions, and that was kind of a PITA). Other than that, the drop hasn't had much of an impact on me. I'm one of those post-2009 investors that everyone seems to be expecting will freak out. Meh. We all knew this would come. What's the big deal?

Mr. Green

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #119 on: August 24, 2015, 08:12:07 AM »
Personally I wouldn't rush out and change anything just to put money into the market today if I already had a game plan in place. Plus it takes time to money money around anyway. This is all fear selling, not real. If there's still a sizable drop at the end of the day, some folks might be in a position to take advantage but otherwise it's likely not to matter.

charis

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #120 on: August 24, 2015, 08:14:43 AM »
Should I invest all of my savings into a taxable? I've already maxed my Roth.

I had the same question.  But isn't this market timing, which conventional wisdom is against?  I don't even have a taxable account at this point, but I could open one today at Vanguard and transfer some cash from our ER account.  I don't really want to, though, so I probably won't.  I'm gonna split the baby and add a 100 bucks to the kids' 529 accounts.

Cwadda

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #121 on: August 24, 2015, 08:18:58 AM »
Should I invest all of my savings into a taxable? I've already maxed my Roth.

I had the same question.  But isn't this market timing, which conventional wisdom is against?  I don't even have a taxable account at this point, but I could open one today at Vanguard and transfer some cash from our ER account.  I don't really want to, though, so I probably won't.  I'm gonna split the baby and add a 100 bucks to the kids' 529 accounts.

I mean I don't market time. I maxed my Roth on January 1st. Also I think of market timing like looking for 1% swings here and there. A 5% change is a bit more noteworthy, I guess.

charis

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #122 on: August 24, 2015, 08:22:40 AM »
Should I invest all of my savings into a taxable? I've already maxed my Roth.

I had the same question.  But isn't this market timing, which conventional wisdom is against?  I don't even have a taxable account at this point, but I could open one today at Vanguard and transfer some cash from our ER account.  I don't really want to, though, so I probably won't.  I'm gonna split the baby and add a 100 bucks to the kids' 529 accounts.

I mean I don't market time. I maxed my Roth on January 1st. Also I think of market timing like looking for 1% swings here and there. A 5% change is a bit more noteworthy, I guess.

I don't market time either, I invest when I have it.  Which is why our IRAs are maxed already.

Mr. Green

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #123 on: August 24, 2015, 08:27:12 AM »
Should I invest all of my savings into a taxable? I've already maxed my Roth.

I had the same question.  But isn't this market timing, which conventional wisdom is against?  I don't even have a taxable account at this point, but I could open one today at Vanguard and transfer some cash from our ER account.  I don't really want to, though, so I probably won't.  I'm gonna split the baby and add a 100 bucks to the kids' 529 accounts.

I mean I don't market time. I maxed my Roth on January 1st. Also I think of market timing like looking for 1% swings here and there. A 5% change is a bit more noteworthy, I guess.
The Dow has recovered to only less than a 300 point drop so your window was about 60 minutes. Yet another reason to take any intraday swings with a world record sized grain of salt.

dandarc

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #124 on: August 24, 2015, 08:27:41 AM »
The market might not even close down today anyway - if you're in mutual funds, you get end of day pricing.  Dow was down more than 1K at its lowest point today.  Now it is less than 300 points off.  And the market hasn't even been open for an hour yet.

charis

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #125 on: August 24, 2015, 08:44:59 AM »
The market might not even close down today anyway - if you're in mutual funds, you get end of day pricing.  Dow was down more than 1K at its lowest point today.  Now it is less than 300 points off.  And the market hasn't even been open for an hour yet.

True, even if it doesn't close down, though, prices are still good.  If I was already planning a lump sum buy, I'd be pretty happy.

Cwadda

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #126 on: August 24, 2015, 08:45:49 AM »
Should I invest all of my savings into a taxable? I've already maxed my Roth.

I had the same question.  But isn't this market timing, which conventional wisdom is against?  I don't even have a taxable account at this point, but I could open one today at Vanguard and transfer some cash from our ER account.  I don't really want to, though, so I probably won't.  I'm gonna split the baby and add a 100 bucks to the kids' 529 accounts.

I mean I don't market time. I maxed my Roth on January 1st. Also I think of market timing like looking for 1% swings here and there. A 5% change is a bit more noteworthy, I guess.
The Dow has recovered to only less than a 300 point drop so your window was about 60 minutes. Yet another reason to take any intraday swings with a world record sized grain of salt.

I was thinking today, per se, but more like a few weeks if it continues to drop. Is that worthwhile?

mrpercentage

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #127 on: August 24, 2015, 08:51:51 AM »
Im not convinced we are done. Not buy or selling just watching the chaos. Hope none of you are hurt, scared, or rush into anything stupid. Wish everyone the best of luck today

milesdividendmd

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #128 on: August 24, 2015, 08:55:18 AM »

Should I invest all of my savings into a taxable? I've already maxed my Roth.

I had the same question.  But isn't this market timing, which conventional wisdom is against?  I don't even have a taxable account at this point, but I could open one today at Vanguard and transfer some cash from our ER account.  I don't really want to, though, so I probably won't.  I'm gonna split the baby and add a 100 bucks to the kids' 529 accounts.

I mean I don't market time. I maxed my Roth on January 1st. Also I think of market timing like looking for 1% swings here and there. A 5% change is a bit more noteworthy, I guess.
The Dow has recovered to only less than a 300 point drop so your window was about 60 minutes. Yet another reason to take any intraday swings with a world record sized grain of salt.

I was thinking today, per se, but more like a few weeks if it continues to drop. Is that worthwhile?

Everyone wonders these questions on days such as today. You are by no means alone.

That being said, here are my opinions on the answers.

1.  The reason that everyone is wondering these questions is because no one has the answers.

2.  Anyone who answers your question with the right time to buy is either selling something or not worth listening to.

3.  If you don't know the right thing to do, the correct answer is almost always to nothing.

Hope that helps.

Mr. Green

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #129 on: August 24, 2015, 08:58:56 AM »
Should I invest all of my savings into a taxable? I've already maxed my Roth.

I had the same question.  But isn't this market timing, which conventional wisdom is against?  I don't even have a taxable account at this point, but I could open one today at Vanguard and transfer some cash from our ER account.  I don't really want to, though, so I probably won't.  I'm gonna split the baby and add a 100 bucks to the kids' 529 accounts.
I mean I don't market time. I maxed my Roth on January 1st. Also I think of market timing like looking for 1% swings here and there. A 5% change is a bit more noteworthy, I guess.
The Dow has recovered to only less than a 300 point drop so your window was about 60 minutes. Yet another reason to take any intraday swings with a world record sized grain of salt.

I was thinking today, per se, but more like a few weeks if it continues to drop. Is that worthwhile?
If we see a decline that hangs around for a few weeks, or even months, I would be inclined to take advantage of it by investing what I could if I had cash laying around. I'm not taking all my cash off the table because you never know when having a little cash on hand would be handy but in my case I had 34k sitting in an online savings account. I was willing to gamble we'd see a correction because of how long the bull has run and some of the fear factors that people have been latching on to, so I hadn't dumped that money into the market. I moved that money Friday and I'll invest the majority, if not all, of it today if things stay down significantly. Am I technically timing the market? Absolutely. Does the prevailing wisdom recommend it? Absolutely not. But that's what I'm doing. Am I looking for the bottom? Nope. Just looking to get in at a lower price. If the market continues to drop I will not care. If you have a good handle on your investing and already have a plan don't change because a couple people are doing something different.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2015, 09:04:32 AM by Mr. Green »

Seppia

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #130 on: August 24, 2015, 09:00:19 AM »
Rule #3 is very underrated.
When there's turmoil the best thing to do in my opinion is sit and wait.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #131 on: August 24, 2015, 09:01:27 AM »
Should I invest all of my savings into a taxable? I've already maxed my Roth.

Just scrapped together the cash to max out the last of my tax advantage accounts for the year this morning.

The rest of my savings this year will end up in taxable accounts.

The reduced cost of the ETFs I'm buying just makes me more focused about saving and putting off expenses that can wait a few months so I have more cash to invest.

nobodyspecial

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #132 on: August 24, 2015, 09:15:45 AM »
Dissapointed - I was rushing to buy, all that red ink was a great buy opportunity.
Then clicked the year-to-date charts and it's still up 5% - damn I should have pilled in in January



milesdividendmd

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #133 on: August 24, 2015, 09:18:00 AM »

Dissapointed - I was rushing to buy, all that red ink was a great buy opportunity.
Then clicked the year-to-date charts and it's still up 5% - damn I should have pilled in in January

Must have a lot of bonds if you are up 5% YTD.

nobodyspecial

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #134 on: August 24, 2015, 09:19:20 AM »

Dissapointed - I was rushing to buy, all that red ink was a great buy opportunity.
Then clicked the year-to-date charts and it's still up 5% - damn I should have pilled in in January

Must have a lot of bonds if you are up 5% YTD.
Nope - I have $CDN so all the stocks are up 20% on no change

Mr. Green

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #135 on: August 24, 2015, 09:24:43 AM »

Dissapointed - I was rushing to buy, all that red ink was a great buy opportunity.
Then clicked the year-to-date charts and it's still up 5% - damn I should have pilled in in January

Must have a lot of bonds if you are up 5% YTD.
I don't think any of the US markets are still positive for the year.

Pooperman

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #136 on: August 24, 2015, 09:30:12 AM »

Dissapointed - I was rushing to buy, all that red ink was a great buy opportunity.
Then clicked the year-to-date charts and it's still up 5% - damn I should have pilled in in January

Must have a lot of bonds if you are up 5% YTD.
I don't think any of the US markets are still positive for the year.
Exchange rates are outpacing declines.

milesdividendmd

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #137 on: August 24, 2015, 09:32:19 AM »


Dissapointed - I was rushing to buy, all that red ink was a great buy opportunity.
Then clicked the year-to-date charts and it's still up 5% - damn I should have pilled in in January

Must have a lot of bonds if you are up 5% YTD.
Nope - I have $CDN so all the stocks are up 20% on no change

Makes sense as long as you deduct 20% when the $CDN rallies.

I'm a red panda

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #138 on: August 24, 2015, 09:46:03 AM »
So... We should be buying now, right?

Nope. I buy on Fridays.  I'm not going to try to time the market.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #139 on: August 24, 2015, 09:49:58 AM »

Makes sense as long as you deduct 20% when if the $CDN rallies.

True. Although I corrected it for you. There is nothing on the horizon that suggests the CDN to USD exchange is going anywhere good for a long time.

celticmyst08

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #140 on: August 24, 2015, 10:02:55 AM »
Woohoo, stocks on sale! Our IRA contribution is also scheduled for tomorrow, so hopefully it stays low.

begood

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #141 on: August 24, 2015, 10:07:05 AM »
I apologize, friends. This decline is all my fault. You see, I opened a Fidelity account last week and funded it to the tune of $6.5K. Apparently, that was all it took to set this dip in motion!

Cathy

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #142 on: August 24, 2015, 10:23:54 AM »
Woohoo, stocks on sale!

Just because the market value of stocks has fallen, it doesn't mean they are "on sale". Have you determined the intrinsic value of these stocks and found that it is more than the market value?

The Investor Alley forum has lately become "toxic to your financial health", similar to investing material found in popular news media.

bittheory

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #143 on: August 24, 2015, 10:29:01 AM »
So when's the collective opinion on when to invest? Today, tomorrow, all week, all month?


Guizmo

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #144 on: August 24, 2015, 10:37:10 AM »
So when's the collective opinion on when to invest? Today, tomorrow, all week, all month?

Whenever you have money to invest!

I'm a red panda

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #145 on: August 24, 2015, 10:39:10 AM »
So when's the collective opinion on when to invest? Today, tomorrow, all week, all month?

On your normal schedule.

Today might be the bottom and not investing today means you aren't going to get the best price.  Or today might be the start of a very very long dip so investing today means you are tossing money away.

Don't try to time the market.

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #146 on: August 24, 2015, 10:43:20 AM »
So when's the collective opinion on when to invest? Today, tomorrow, all week, all month?

Every day! On a 20-year time horizon nearly every day this year is basically the same.

celticmyst08

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #147 on: August 24, 2015, 10:43:34 AM »
Woohoo, stocks on sale!

Just because the market value of stocks has fallen, it doesn't mean they are "on sale". Have you determined the intrinsic value of these stocks and found that it is more than the market value?

I'm not buying anything I normally wouldn't, just keeping up our monthly 401k/IRA contributions. I used the term "on sale" to reflect that the price has dropped significantly.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #148 on: August 24, 2015, 10:50:03 AM »
Woohoo, stocks on sale!

Just because the market value of stocks has fallen, it doesn't mean they are "on sale". Have you determined the intrinsic value of these stocks and found that it is more than the market value?

I'm not buying anything I normally wouldn't, just keeping up our monthly 401k/IRA contributions. I used the term "on sale" to reflect that the price has dropped significantly.

If you haven't read too many of Cathy's posts, you might not know that she is hyper-pedantic, so I wouldn't take any offense to her critique. And I mean that in the best possible way, Cathy! ;)

Left

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #149 on: August 24, 2015, 11:19:05 AM »
can someone explain why it is a "correction" when the markets drop? I mean, what is it correcting for? Nothing seems to be different in how businesses are ran... Aside from maybe China fixing their currency, which would normally just affect the companies that deal with china/their exports. So why would things like reits/bonds be affected by China when they don't interact with it?

It seems like my payout from the down market is pretty good on my write/put etfs though. Been using them since last year and they seem to be doing their job how I hoped (namely, I get "some" returns when the markets are flat/low instead of nothing).

Other than that, I'm down I think $10-15k in the last weeks, but why should I care about it? I just won't sell it, and eventually it'll recover. Even if I let it sit in bank, it won't "gain" me much anyways, even if it doesn't "go down", the cash value of it means nothing to me since I never touch it in bank anyways. The G fund has been good to me though, yay for using that as my "bond" allocation
« Last Edit: August 24, 2015, 11:21:10 AM by eyem »