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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: blackjack on January 12, 2016, 09:34:35 AM

Title: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: blackjack on January 12, 2016, 09:34:35 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBS-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: cerat0n1a on January 12, 2016, 10:26:08 AM
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard must have predicted about 100 crashes by now. I'd be scared to cross the road in his company.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: bacchi on January 12, 2016, 10:31:00 AM
RBS claims no end in sight for QE! US Federal Reserve maintains "expanded balance sheet."

http://www.afr.com/markets/no-end-to-world-of-quantitative-easing-says-rbs-economist-alberto-gallo-says-20151013-gk8faz

Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: AdrianC on January 12, 2016, 11:08:22 AM
RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.

A fifth? As in 20%? Big deal.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: One Noisy Cat on January 12, 2016, 11:59:22 AM
    We've had declines of 20% and more in the S & P 500 in 2008, 2002, 1974, 1937, 1931, 1930, 1907. So
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Travis on January 12, 2016, 12:54:04 PM
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard must have predicted about 100 crashes by now. I'd be scared to cross the road in his company.

I'm curious how he (or whoever created that chart) can call China a "developing country" since they're the #2 in the world by GDP.  Their economic policies are all over the place, but so was Japan in the 1980s.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: JZinCO on January 12, 2016, 01:04:36 PM
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard must have predicted about 100 crashes by now. I'd be scared to cross the road in his company.

I'm curious how he (or whoever created that chart) can call China a "developing country" since they're the #2 in the world by GDP.  Their economic policies are all over the place, but so was Japan in the 1980s.
"Newly industrialized country" more your flavor?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newly_industrialized_country

Far as I know there are no major indices track NICs as a whole (there are regional such as S&P BIC 40) so it is still common parlance to lump them in developing.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Scandium on January 12, 2016, 01:56:45 PM
RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.

A fifth? As in 20%? Big deal.

That caught my eye too. It started out all extreme and cataclysmic. But that's a 20% drop? eh, ok? I think I'll live..
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: cerat0n1a on January 12, 2016, 02:57:11 PM
The FTSE-100 in the UK, where the Telegraph is published, is already down almost 20% since its 2013 peak, in any case.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: JZinCO on January 12, 2016, 04:40:34 PM
RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.

A fifth? As in 20%? Big deal.

That caught my eye too. It started out all extreme and cataclysmic. But that's a 20% drop? eh, ok? I think I'll live..
I had read the original message stated 10 to 20%. But you know, 10% isn't as sensational.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Scandium on January 12, 2016, 04:52:55 PM
RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.

A fifth? As in 20%? Big deal.

That caught my eye too. It started out all extreme and cataclysmic. But that's a 20% drop? eh, ok? I think I'll live..
The "footsie" is by far my favorite index, mostly for the name.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: FIRE_Buckeye on January 12, 2016, 06:52:45 PM
    We've had declines of 20% and more in the S & P 500 in 2008, 2002, 1974, 1937, 1931, 1930, 1907. So
Article in the OP is garbage.
That said, a third recession in the last 15 years would be pretty disconcerting, coupled with stagnant wages over the last 25 years, massive student load debt/higher education costs, and the impending cost of supporting an aging baby boomer population (among other factors).
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Bateaux on January 12, 2016, 11:35:17 PM
At a point in life where I can sustain a 20% drop and still be a millionaire.  It's all good.  Buying cheap now.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: marty998 on January 13, 2016, 12:32:34 AM
The FTSE-100 in the UK, where the Telegraph is published, is already down almost 20% since its 2013 peak, in any case.

So is the ASX in Australia... 20% since March...

CBA and Telstra are the 2 big companies to release results in early Feb. Not much notice will be taken of BHP and RIO... we know they'll be crap.

Entire Australian economic sentiment will turn good or bad when CBA and TLS report.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: fattest_foot on January 13, 2016, 11:51:10 AM
20% is nothing. I guess today Societe Generale (???) released a forecast that the S&P will drop 75% to 550.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/13/sp-will-plunge-75-on-china-deflation-socgen-bear.html

Sale prices indeed...
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: FIRE47 on January 13, 2016, 01:30:21 PM
US markets are already down over 10% from highs after today aren't they? Many other international markets are down 20-25% from last year's highs at this point... ? Not exactly offering anything new here this could have been a good prediction a year ago.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: soccerluvof4 on January 13, 2016, 03:08:34 PM
I think alot of people would welcome a 20% drop since there are trillions on the sidelines in mutual funds alone.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Ozlady on January 13, 2016, 11:57:00 PM
Mmmm.....i plan to drop 50K in the next few months so will be watching this sale err...i  mean drama unfold ...

Just gotta stay bold and greedy!  bold and greedy...bold and greedy!
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: One Noisy Cat on January 14, 2016, 12:11:06 PM
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard must have predicted about 100 crashes by now. I'd be scared to cross the road in his company.

I'm curious how he (or whoever created that chart) can call China a "developing country" since they're the #2 in the world by GDP.  Their economic policies are all over the place, but so was Japan in the 1980s.


China is somewhere around 80 using Purchasing Power Parity per capita measures. Their huge population gives them second price in total GDP
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

But they have grown tremendously the last three decades
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Eric on January 14, 2016, 12:22:10 PM
"Sell all your stocks!!!  (and buy our bonds)"
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: WerKater on January 14, 2016, 12:29:32 PM
Holy shit, I can't wait to get paid so that I can can finally invest some more!
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Indexer on January 14, 2016, 10:25:37 PM
This guy is funny. He said that 2013 was going to be worse than the great depression.

For reference VTSAX was up 33.52% in 2013. Hmmm....

I think statistically speaking the best advice is to do the opposite of whatever Mr. Roberts recommends.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/the-author-of-the-rbs-sell-everything-note-has-been-predicting-disaster-for-the-last-five-years/
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: One Noisy Cat on January 15, 2016, 07:54:10 AM
Holy shit, I can't wait to get paid so that I can can finally invest some more!


I'm retired so I don't have that ability. But last week I moved $500 of my $12,000 emergency funds in the market. I think I'll move another $500 today. I believe in practicing what you preach and since I preach against "end of civilization-Dark Ages-we'll be living in caves" hysteria, I should buy more of my Dogs of the Dow. I think historically these "massive loss days punctuated by a few massive up days" last about three weeks.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Koreth on January 15, 2016, 10:38:05 AM
Well., I got paid and my auto-deposit into my tIRA fires off today, so I get my shares at an extra-deep discount. Score!
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: FIRE_Buckeye on January 16, 2016, 08:54:13 PM
Probably very few into technical analysis or charting on here, but as of Friday we've broken the key support level at the July 2015 lows. If we continue to free fall, there's lots of air between that and the next major support at the October 2007 high at 14,198.

With earnings expected to be poor, there will be many good buying opportunities in the months to come.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Kaspian on July 11, 2016, 08:48:49 AM
This thread is from January--these clowns are starting to look really stupid now.

"RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel."
...
“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/11/rbs-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/11/rbs-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears/)

Does anyone ever get held to account for their shitty advice to investors?

"Morgan Stanley strategists are growing increasingly concerned about the risk of a global recession, slashing forecasts for all major equity markets and advising investors to sell stocks that have recently rallied. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-cuts-sp-500-target-as-recession-fears-rise-2016-03-14 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-cuts-sp-500-target-as-recession-fears-rise-2016-03-14)

"Forecasts grow bleaker: S&P will end this year at 2,050, Credit Suisse’s strategist says"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/forecasts-grow-bleaker-sp-will-end-this-year-at-2050-credit-suisses-strategist-says-2016-02-02 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/forecasts-grow-bleaker-sp-will-end-this-year-at-2050-credit-suisses-strategist-says-2016-02-02)

They're really just a bunch of arseholes.  No wonder the common Joe is scared to invest--they always lose their shirts following bad advice from the powerhouses.  >:(
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: TheAnonOne on July 11, 2016, 10:16:50 AM
This thread is from January--these clowns are starting to look really stupid now.

"RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel."
...
“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/11/rbs-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/11/rbs-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears/)

Does anyone ever get held to account for their shitty advice to investors?

"Morgan Stanley strategists are growing increasingly concerned about the risk of a global recession, slashing forecasts for all major equity markets and advising investors to sell stocks that have recently rallied. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-cuts-sp-500-target-as-recession-fears-rise-2016-03-14 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-cuts-sp-500-target-as-recession-fears-rise-2016-03-14)

"Forecasts grow bleaker: S&P will end this year at 2,050, Credit Suisse’s strategist says"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/forecasts-grow-bleaker-sp-will-end-this-year-at-2050-credit-suisses-strategist-says-2016-02-02 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/forecasts-grow-bleaker-sp-will-end-this-year-at-2050-credit-suisses-strategist-says-2016-02-02)

They're really just a bunch of arseholes.  No wonder the common Joe is scared to invest--they always lose their shirts following bad advice from the powerhouses.  >:(


I see TWO sides to this.

One, the sp500 is at an all time high today, so they are clearly wrong. At least through today. (and likely just plain wrong)

Two, the market did stumble twice this year, back in FEB it dropped a decent amount for... a month.
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Kaspian on July 11, 2016, 11:09:48 AM
Yep, it always stumbles.  Stumbles right along.  A toddler will always eventually cross a room.  Telling people to bail on everything in March though = fantastically evil advice.

Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: FIRE47 on July 15, 2016, 01:42:21 PM
I've come to realize all that these "predictions" are is a bold claim that usually follows a day or two of big moves (usually 90% of the time its a bold claim with a negative sentiment since it's easier to move average Joe with fear of a big loss.) That all it takes to move some poor schmuk over the edge at that point after losing 4-5% in a couple days is reading an article like this I guess. And who is going to question the negative sentiment when it's already occurring.

These "predictions" are usually just a wild projection of whatever downward trend has been in progress for a few days - sometimes after only one bad day I've seen them start.

You have to wonder though who would trust these people with their own money if they are so far off the mark - I guess their clients have been sitting in cash so far this year?

Sorry but if I'm paying someone a shitload of money to be an expert I expect more than Chinese proverb type sayings to make decisions for my money "In a crowded hall, exit doors are small" give me a break.


"Rather than approaching the edge of the waters admiring the fish, it’s better to take a step back, and prepare to cast a net over the waters and catch the fish"

This one says buy to me...
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: Shor on July 15, 2016, 07:22:08 PM
Sorry but if I'm paying someone a shitload of money to be an expert I expect more than Chinese proverb type sayings to make decisions for my money "In a crowded hall, exit doors are small" give me a break.


"Rather than approaching the edge of the waters admiring the fish, it’s better to take a step back, and prepare to cast a net over the waters and catch the fish"

This one says buy to me...
The only certainty is that nothing is certain.
It... it must be buy! No no, it's a sell! Definitely Sell! Urrrgh, I can't decide!
Title: Re: RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Post by: mrpercentage on July 15, 2016, 08:18:11 PM
Yep, it always stumbles.  Stumbles right along.  A toddler will always eventually cross a room.  Telling people to bail on everything in March though = fantastically evil advice.

It does look like a reverse head and shoulders. Why don't you pull the trigger?

https://youtu.be/Za9YMxLKH-A?t=1m14s