Regarding the 2012 link, please note I said his recent record is not good. In fact, I mentioned this specifically in my
other post way before this thread came to be.
From this thread alone:
"Recently his quality of work has dropped a bit"
"Dalio's recent track record leaves much to be desired."
Sometimes it really helps to read carefully. Odds are (based on data) Dalio will be right this time. I should stress, if someone indeed followed his 2012 call without doing his own work, lolz, you deserve to lose $.
I am going to be honest, for an average poster, or someone who is financially illiterate, it is not easy to tell these guys apart. Because they
ALL look like Doctor D at first.
Here is an idea, or rather, an actionable strategy on how to deal with this:
1. You assume everyone is Doctor A
2. You look at their track records. Perma bears/crash callers stand out like big roaches in daylight; you then ignore them when they spew further garbage.
3. You probe for inconsistencies in their (the person in question) investment thesis. Granted, reading comprehension skill is required for this, which seems to be in short supply these days.
4. At this stage, few "doctors" remain. You then study available data to either reinforce or refute the person's forecast (diagnosis).
5. Monitor the situation as it unfolds, do it long enough and well enough you might just become Doctor D yourself!
You are currently on step 1, work down the list.
Or
You could indeed walk away and/or rely on home remedy. What's the worst that could happen? In the long term we are all dead anyway.
P.S. Last edit, I see you like SC2 as well. I was a Gold player when WoL first came out, now I am prob Bronze lol. I've been playing some co-op missions lately, I suck so bad (APM rarely over 70) I can't even make past Hard.