The Money Mustache Community
Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: Langer83 on August 21, 2015, 06:25:04 AM
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I'm trying to get a better intuitive sense of the trade-offs between risk and return for different stock/bond mixes. Most of the data I've seen for different stock/bond allocations either shows the standard deviation of annual returns or best/worst years. Neither of those data points really helps me understanding the range of outcomes for these different allocations.
What I'd really like is to get data on the range of outcomes (Say 10th, 50th, 90th percentile) over different time periods (1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 30 years) for different stock/bond allocations. This could be an online calculator or from some existing resource. The analysis could be based on Monte Carlo simulations or historical data (as long as it's a sufficiently long time-period).
Any suggestions? Thanks!
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I posted here because I was waiting for a post on Bogleheads to be approved. Never got an email confirmation, but it has been posted with lots of good responses:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=171963&p=2595706#p2595706
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Yes, there is a table out there in Wade Pfau's research that contains the exact info you are looking for. I can't find it, but I've seen it linked before from the forums - maybe someone else here can post it. It has several columns showing historical returns, ending balance, etc through various time periods for a 0/100, 25/75, 50/50, 75/25, and 100/0 allocation.
If you're decent with excel, you can use the spreadsheet linked below to build out columns and calculate returns for a given allocation & time period. The spreadsheet contains historical returns from 1928-2014 for stocks (S&P), cash (t-bill), and bonds (10yr treasury).
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html (http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html)
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In addition to playing around with tools like cFIREsim and FIREcalc, you should take a look at www.portfoliocharts.com, an excellent new homegrown resource perfect for investigating the type of question you are interested in (but note that its underlying historical market data only goes back to 1972).