Author Topic: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?  (Read 10043 times)

desertadapted

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 86
How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« on: April 11, 2016, 01:05:05 PM »
Iíve adopted the buy/hold/low cost index strategy, and stuck with it for the last ~10 years, and itís working out adequately.  Iíve avoided market timing and have invested money when Iíve had it available.  But recently Iíve got it in my head thatís it would be a good idea to take some % of my investments (assume 5-10%), and sell when the market hits, say, 17,800, and keep it sitting in a money market fund until the market hits, say, 15,000.  That ďbuy pointĒ seems conservative to me Ė that we could hit 15,000 again at some point in the future. I appreciate any insights into what percentage of total assets you think should be deployed (if any), and anything else that occurs to you.   How much powder do you keep dry?  Do you use any objective metrics for buying in? Gut instinct?  Is it better just to keep the money invested (90% in stocks based on age and investment objectives), and if so why do you think that?

dividendman

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1297
  • Age: 38
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2016, 01:15:14 PM »
I consider my 20% allocation to bonds "dry powder". If stocks do take a dump I'll necessarily be shifting from bonds into stocks - using my dry powder to get stocks at a discount.

So, I think it's better just to always stick to your asset allocation instead of taking money out and in based on your feelings. Having a bond allocation may assuage your need to sell stocks every time you get a feeling that stocks could tank.

forummm

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7389
  • Senior Mustachian
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2016, 01:44:02 PM »
You are more likely to suck at market timing than to be good at it. Hence the recommendation to stick with an asset allocation. I just try to keep all my cash invested in line with my allocation and let time and consistent savings win for me in the long run.

Villanelle

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2016, 02:07:37 PM »
I generally think that having my powder out and working for me is better than having it sit in a dry warehouse waiting. 

Find an allocation that works for you, and stick with it.  If you are having these desires, perhaps your current allocation is a bit too conservative, in which case stick a bit less in bonds and a bit more in more volatile mutuals funds. 

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7628
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2016, 02:19:51 PM »
A couple scenarios:

B&H Only

- you have $100K
- you get 5% total return per/yr after inflation doing the boring buy and hold thing
- at the end of 10yrs you have $163K

B&H 90% + 10% Market Timing

- you have $90K
- you get 5% total return per/yr after inflation doing the boring buy and hold thing
- at the end of 10yrs you have $147K

- you have another $10K in cash
- you lose 1% after inflation for 7yrs in a money market account waiting for your moment
- leaving you with $9.3K
- then you nail a 30% crash/recovery perfectly in year 8
- leaving you with $12.1K
- you get 5% /yr after inflation for the last two years
- leaving you with $13.3K say $13K

All told at the end of 10yrs you have $147K + $13K = $160K.

This is just one potential outcome wargame out whatever scenarios seem realistic to you and see if it makes any sense to hold cash as dry powder.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2016, 06:12:03 PM by Retire-Canada »

desertadapted

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 86
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2016, 02:25:42 PM »
Thank you all.  Retire-Canada: particularly impressive.

forummm

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7389
  • Senior Mustachian

tyir

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 60
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2016, 06:44:37 PM »
I read this post as the classic:

"I know you shouldn't time the market. Should you time the market?"


desertadapted

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 86
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2016, 08:31:00 PM »
Tyir:  Yes, I suppose you could characterize my question as dismissively as you just have.  Another way of looking at the issue is that a common refrain on this site and MMM's blog is that a down market is exciting because it's when "stocks go on sale."  I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something. 


Villanelle

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2016, 10:22:48 PM »
Tyir:  Yes, I suppose you could characterize my question as dismissively as you just have.  Another way of looking at the issue is that a common refrain on this site and MMM's blog is that a down market is exciting because it's when "stocks go on sale."  I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something.

It's more that the $xoo you invest monthly buys you more shares.  You get more for your money.

tyir

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 60
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2016, 11:41:06 PM »
Tyir:  Yes, I suppose you could characterize my question as dismissively as you just have.  Another way of looking at the issue is that a common refrain on this site and MMM's blog is that a down market is exciting because it's when "stocks go on sale."  I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something.

Don't worry, I was just gently teasing :)

To be fair, I think it is a bit irrational people get excited when the market drops. I think it's really just to makes themselves feel better.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2016, 11:43:17 PM by tyir »

Cyaphas

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 493
  • Age: 37
  • Location: DFW, TX

forummm

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7389
  • Senior Mustachian
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2016, 07:19:37 AM »
Tyir:  Yes, I suppose you could characterize my question as dismissively as you just have.  Another way of looking at the issue is that a common refrain on this site and MMM's blog is that a down market is exciting because it's when "stocks go on sale."  I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something.

Don't worry, I was just gently teasing :)

To be fair, I think it is a bit irrational people get excited when the market drops. I think it's really just to makes themselves feel better.

No, it's pretty rational for people still accumulating. If the S&P 500 could just go down to 1 for long enough for me to load up on shares with this next paycheck, I could retire from just that one transaction. When you're going to buy eggs at the store anyway and there's a sale on eggs, don't you love that?

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7628
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2016, 07:28:10 AM »
I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something.

I'm going to assume in most people's budgets there are some luxury items [maybe a meal at a fancy restaurant once in a while or a trip to a warm sunny beach] and some non-critical items that can wait a bit for you to spend the money [maybe repair the roof this year and replace it next year].

That sort of thing is true in my life anyways.

So let's say there is a 30% market crash I may well decide to divert my non-essential spending to buy more stocks than I would have if the market had gone up 20%.

As someone else noted I would also be able to rebalance from assets that did not drop 30% to the ones that did to take advantage of the situation.

What I don't have is a big pile of cash waiting for "the right moment".
« Last Edit: April 12, 2016, 07:30:32 AM by Retire-Canada »

Louisville

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 510
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2016, 07:46:11 AM »
I consider my 20% allocation to bonds "dry powder". If stocks do take a dump I'll necessarily be shifting from bonds into stocks - using my dry powder to get stocks at a discount.

So, I think it's better just to always stick to your asset allocation instead of taking money out and in based on your feelings. Having a bond allocation may assuage your need to sell stocks every time you get a feeling that stocks could tank.
This. Your bond allocation is your "dry powder" for buying stocks on sale, and your stock allocation is "dry powder" for buying bonds on sale. You could further break it down to small cap vs. large cap, foreign vs. domestic, etc. You're going "boom" each time you re-balance.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2016, 07:49:21 AM by Louisville »

Livewell

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 179
  • Location: SF Bay Area
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #16 on: April 12, 2016, 09:37:41 AM »
I consider my 20% allocation to bonds "dry powder". If stocks do take a dump I'll necessarily be shifting from bonds into stocks - using my dry powder to get stocks at a discount.

So, I think it's better just to always stick to your asset allocation instead of taking money out and in based on your feelings. Having a bond allocation may assuage your need to sell stocks every time you get a feeling that stocks could tank.
This. Your bond allocation is your "dry powder" for buying stocks on sale, and your stock allocation is "dry powder" for buying bonds on sale. You could further break it down to small cap vs. large cap, foreign vs. domestic, etc. You're going "boom" each time you re-balance.

Pre FIRE I split our taxable stock allocation between Vtsax and vfiax, with the idea of capturing losses on one in the event of a crash.  I also convert bonds to stock during downturn (last fall, start of this year) and then buy additional bonds as the market recovers with income (or convert in non taxable accounts) to get back to my 80/20 allocation. 





tyir

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 60
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2016, 09:24:05 PM »
Tyir:  Yes, I suppose you could characterize my question as dismissively as you just have.  Another way of looking at the issue is that a common refrain on this site and MMM's blog is that a down market is exciting because it's when "stocks go on sale."  I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something.

Don't worry, I was just gently teasing :)

To be fair, I think it is a bit irrational people get excited when the market drops. I think it's really just to makes themselves feel better.

No, it's pretty rational for people still accumulating. If the S&P 500 could just go down to 1 for long enough for me to load up on shares with this next paycheck, I could retire from just that one transaction. When you're going to buy eggs at the store anyway and there's a sale on eggs, don't you love that?

I don't fully agree, but it's difficult to judge. Is a drop in price good for your long term portfolio (assuming you are a regular buy and hold index investor with consistent purchases)?

There's a few ways to think about it, but the core to the idea is do we think that the general increase of the stock market (say, 7%, real-valued) is "fixed", in the sense that year or even decade long shift are irrelevant?

Let's put it this way. Say the market is at 1 when you start investing, and your timespan is 50 years. You might estimate the final valuation would be 1.07^50 at the end of the investing period. Now, say there was a crash early on, bring the value to .5. Now, do we think the final output will be still 1.07^50? Do short term changes affect the long term outlook?

I'm a reasonably strong believer in the EMH, so I tend to feel that the market will be expected to return long term averaged market returns from whatever point we start at. So a market drop doesn't necessarily require that there will be a future increase to "keep us back on track", as it were. A drop is a drop, and the market is judged to be worth whatever it is currently worth. I guess this is an expression of my feeling that the EMH is stronger than the idea that future market returns will be that similar to past market returns (on a very macro level). A happiness at a market drop requires an expectation that future returns will be better than they would be otherwise.

Hopefully that was a good enough description. I do agree there is a strong intuition that a current drop requires a future increase to counter it, but I'm not convinced of it.

forummm

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7389
  • Senior Mustachian
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2016, 08:51:29 AM »
Tyir:  Yes, I suppose you could characterize my question as dismissively as you just have.  Another way of looking at the issue is that a common refrain on this site and MMM's blog is that a down market is exciting because it's when "stocks go on sale."  I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something.

Don't worry, I was just gently teasing :)

To be fair, I think it is a bit irrational people get excited when the market drops. I think it's really just to makes themselves feel better.

No, it's pretty rational for people still accumulating. If the S&P 500 could just go down to 1 for long enough for me to load up on shares with this next paycheck, I could retire from just that one transaction. When you're going to buy eggs at the store anyway and there's a sale on eggs, don't you love that?

I don't fully agree, but it's difficult to judge. Is a drop in price good for your long term portfolio (assuming you are a regular buy and hold index investor with consistent purchases)?

There's a few ways to think about it, but the core to the idea is do we think that the general increase of the stock market (say, 7%, real-valued) is "fixed", in the sense that year or even decade long shift are irrelevant?

Let's put it this way. Say the market is at 1 when you start investing, and your timespan is 50 years. You might estimate the final valuation would be 1.07^50 at the end of the investing period. Now, say there was a crash early on, bring the value to .5. Now, do we think the final output will be still 1.07^50? Do short term changes affect the long term outlook?

I'm a reasonably strong believer in the EMH, so I tend to feel that the market will be expected to return long term averaged market returns from whatever point we start at. So a market drop doesn't necessarily require that there will be a future increase to "keep us back on track", as it were. A drop is a drop, and the market is judged to be worth whatever it is currently worth. I guess this is an expression of my feeling that the EMH is stronger than the idea that future market returns will be that similar to past market returns (on a very macro level). A happiness at a market drop requires an expectation that future returns will be better than they would be otherwise.

Hopefully that was a good enough description. I do agree there is a strong intuition that a current drop requires a future increase to counter it, but I'm not convinced of it.

Each share you buy is a portion of the future earnings of a firm. Let's simplify and take SPY right now. It pays about a $4 annual dividend and is about $200ish (1/10 S&P 500 value) to purchase a share. Let's say I get paid $1k today and want to buy shares with it. At a $200 price I can buy 5 shares, so I get $20 in dividend each year plus price and dividend appreciation. If the market dropped this morning to an S&P 500 value of 1, making SPY cost $0.10/share, then I can now buy 10,000 shares. I will get $40,000/year in dividends plus price and dividend appreciation. Price appreciation will be substantial, but even if it isn't I could retire on the dividends. Now that's obviously an extreme example, but you can see that for each additional amount cheaper I can get the shares, I can buy more shares, which will provide me with a bigger share of the earnings going forward. The companies are going to earn whatever they earn. You want the price you pay for those earnings to be as small as possible.

tyir

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 60
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2016, 09:55:37 AM »
Tyir:  Yes, I suppose you could characterize my question as dismissively as you just have.  Another way of looking at the issue is that a common refrain on this site and MMM's blog is that a down market is exciting because it's when "stocks go on sale."  I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something.

Don't worry, I was just gently teasing :)

To be fair, I think it is a bit irrational people get excited when the market drops. I think it's really just to makes themselves feel better.

No, it's pretty rational for people still accumulating. If the S&P 500 could just go down to 1 for long enough for me to load up on shares with this next paycheck, I could retire from just that one transaction. When you're going to buy eggs at the store anyway and there's a sale on eggs, don't you love that?

I don't fully agree, but it's difficult to judge. Is a drop in price good for your long term portfolio (assuming you are a regular buy and hold index investor with consistent purchases)?

There's a few ways to think about it, but the core to the idea is do we think that the general increase of the stock market (say, 7%, real-valued) is "fixed", in the sense that year or even decade long shift are irrelevant?

Let's put it this way. Say the market is at 1 when you start investing, and your timespan is 50 years. You might estimate the final valuation would be 1.07^50 at the end of the investing period. Now, say there was a crash early on, bring the value to .5. Now, do we think the final output will be still 1.07^50? Do short term changes affect the long term outlook?

I'm a reasonably strong believer in the EMH, so I tend to feel that the market will be expected to return long term averaged market returns from whatever point we start at. So a market drop doesn't necessarily require that there will be a future increase to "keep us back on track", as it were. A drop is a drop, and the market is judged to be worth whatever it is currently worth. I guess this is an expression of my feeling that the EMH is stronger than the idea that future market returns will be that similar to past market returns (on a very macro level). A happiness at a market drop requires an expectation that future returns will be better than they would be otherwise.

Hopefully that was a good enough description. I do agree there is a strong intuition that a current drop requires a future increase to counter it, but I'm not convinced of it.

Each share you buy is a portion of the future earnings of a firm. Let's simplify and take SPY right now. It pays about a $4 annual dividend and is about $200ish (1/10 S&P 500 value) to purchase a share. Let's say I get paid $1k today and want to buy shares with it. At a $200 price I can buy 5 shares, so I get $20 in dividend each year plus price and dividend appreciation. If the market dropped this morning to an S&P 500 value of 1, making SPY cost $0.10/share, then I can now buy 10,000 shares. I will get $40,000/year in dividends plus price and dividend appreciation. Price appreciation will be substantial, but even if it isn't I could retire on the dividends. Now that's obviously an extreme example, but you can see that for each additional amount cheaper I can get the shares, I can buy more shares, which will provide me with a bigger share of the earnings going forward. The companies are going to earn whatever they earn. You want the price you pay for those earnings to be as small as possible.

I believe you're missing my point. If you hold dividends fixed, you're implicitly assuming that future total returns are going to be higher post crash, i.e. the concept I brought up in my third paragraph. If we assume the price will end up in the same ballpark in 50 years no matter what happens, of course it is best for it to be as low as possible in the meantime - the optimal will be of course near 0 for 49 years and jump up to the final total in the end. Keeping dividends fixed (i.e. proportionally higher) is an expression of that (in a more realistic way it could play out).

I'm just not convinced it's true. Dividends generally stay within a certain range as a percentage of price, so price dropping should in aggregate lower earnings. And even still focusing on dividends is a bit of a red herring, it's better to think about total return. Dividends could stay the same place, but earning growth could be proportionally lower if dividends are paying too much.


forummm

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7389
  • Senior Mustachian
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2016, 12:20:35 PM »
Tyir:  Yes, I suppose you could characterize my question as dismissively as you just have.  Another way of looking at the issue is that a common refrain on this site and MMM's blog is that a down market is exciting because it's when "stocks go on sale."  I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something.

Don't worry, I was just gently teasing :)

To be fair, I think it is a bit irrational people get excited when the market drops. I think it's really just to makes themselves feel better.

No, it's pretty rational for people still accumulating. If the S&P 500 could just go down to 1 for long enough for me to load up on shares with this next paycheck, I could retire from just that one transaction. When you're going to buy eggs at the store anyway and there's a sale on eggs, don't you love that?

I don't fully agree, but it's difficult to judge. Is a drop in price good for your long term portfolio (assuming you are a regular buy and hold index investor with consistent purchases)?

There's a few ways to think about it, but the core to the idea is do we think that the general increase of the stock market (say, 7%, real-valued) is "fixed", in the sense that year or even decade long shift are irrelevant?

Let's put it this way. Say the market is at 1 when you start investing, and your timespan is 50 years. You might estimate the final valuation would be 1.07^50 at the end of the investing period. Now, say there was a crash early on, bring the value to .5. Now, do we think the final output will be still 1.07^50? Do short term changes affect the long term outlook?

I'm a reasonably strong believer in the EMH, so I tend to feel that the market will be expected to return long term averaged market returns from whatever point we start at. So a market drop doesn't necessarily require that there will be a future increase to "keep us back on track", as it were. A drop is a drop, and the market is judged to be worth whatever it is currently worth. I guess this is an expression of my feeling that the EMH is stronger than the idea that future market returns will be that similar to past market returns (on a very macro level). A happiness at a market drop requires an expectation that future returns will be better than they would be otherwise.

Hopefully that was a good enough description. I do agree there is a strong intuition that a current drop requires a future increase to counter it, but I'm not convinced of it.

Each share you buy is a portion of the future earnings of a firm. Let's simplify and take SPY right now. It pays about a $4 annual dividend and is about $200ish (1/10 S&P 500 value) to purchase a share. Let's say I get paid $1k today and want to buy shares with it. At a $200 price I can buy 5 shares, so I get $20 in dividend each year plus price and dividend appreciation. If the market dropped this morning to an S&P 500 value of 1, making SPY cost $0.10/share, then I can now buy 10,000 shares. I will get $40,000/year in dividends plus price and dividend appreciation. Price appreciation will be substantial, but even if it isn't I could retire on the dividends. Now that's obviously an extreme example, but you can see that for each additional amount cheaper I can get the shares, I can buy more shares, which will provide me with a bigger share of the earnings going forward. The companies are going to earn whatever they earn. You want the price you pay for those earnings to be as small as possible.

I believe you're missing my point. If you hold dividends fixed, you're implicitly assuming that future total returns are going to be higher post crash, i.e. the concept I brought up in my third paragraph. If we assume the price will end up in the same ballpark in 50 years no matter what happens, of course it is best for it to be as low as possible in the meantime - the optimal will be of course near 0 for 49 years and jump up to the final total in the end. Keeping dividends fixed (i.e. proportionally higher) is an expression of that (in a more realistic way it could play out).

I'm just not convinced it's true. Dividends generally stay within a certain range as a percentage of price, so price dropping should in aggregate lower earnings. And even still focusing on dividends is a bit of a red herring, it's better to think about total return. Dividends could stay the same place, but earning growth could be proportionally lower if dividends are paying too much.

As an aside, I don't really care about dividends--it's really earnings that matter in the long run. But I also don't believe the EMH is a rule--it's an idea that generally tends to be true. The daily fluctuations are often not driven by actual information changes, but by emotion. Similarly, people overreact to actual news. And the price of stocks really has little bearing on what a company's earnings will be like in the future--it's the opposite causality. And the premium that investors in aggregate are willing to pay for expected future earnings varies widely. In the past decades it's been as little as ~5, and now it's ~20. I'd rather be paying 5 than 20. All else equal, paying 5 makes me richer than paying 20.

Eric

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4061
  • Location: On my bike
Re: How much powder to keep dry, and when to make it go boom?
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2016, 01:12:09 PM »
Tyir:  Yes, I suppose you could characterize my question as dismissively as you just have.  Another way of looking at the issue is that a common refrain on this site and MMM's blog is that a down market is exciting because it's when "stocks go on sale."  I've always thought that implicit in this idea is that there are funds available to buy the stocks when they go on sale.  If what is meant by "stocks go on sale" is that "stocks you would have otherwise bought in the ordinary course are less expensive during that period" well then I guess I've learned something.

I'm of the opinion that the Stocks On Sale! idea is to keep people investing, not that there should be extra money waiting for this time.  It's more of a psychological trick than a market timing thing.  Market goes up?  Great, you have more money.  Market goes down?  Great, you're getting stocks on sale.  The underlying message is to just continually plow money into your investments.

Granted, if you decide to pick up a side job or sell some shit or otherwise somehow come up with "extra" money, then this is a great time for that.  But otherwise, there should be no "extra" money.