Will the top tech companies really change over the next 10 years? I heard this claimed by someone on TV, and strongly disagreed with them, even though their premise is sound. I hope I'm not falling victim to "this time it's different" - feel free to point it out if I am.
Warren Buffet likes companies with "moats", which are significant obstacles to competitors. I suspect the biggest U.S. tech companies have big moats for competitors to cross.
Microsoft has Windows, which in turn has software everyone uses. Sometimes I try out games I like on Linux, hit bugs, and return to Windows. But businesses like the cost and reliability of Linux, and most users prefer phones over laptops. So maybe Microsoft will become a cloud company ultimately.
For Apple, they have an integrated phone / services setup that works well. A competitor's phone can't connect to iCloud and related services, which are Apple's moat. Their brand has really strong worldwide recognition, and others would have to scale up an operating system and cloud services to match what Apple offers.
Google has the largest ad market, and best search engine. Years ago Microsoft poured money, computers and software engineers into making a competing search engine, and failed. The refinements built into their software are their "moat" in the search engine space. Their ads have the most reach, so there's more profit using Google's ad network. Maybe that could change?
Maybe Amazon is the weakest of the group? Besides the largest pool of buyers and sellers, you get low prices and the ability to find even obscure items. Their cloud service may turn into a commodity business, but Amazon is #1 right now.
Given the many hurdles to beat these companies, will there be changes to the top companies in the next decade? Will a new form of search replace Google? Will Huawei 5G phones beat Apple on features and overall look and feel?