Compass is creating a synthetic version of psilocybin which would be patent protected, thus the clinical trials. A competitor would have to establish a similar product via another method and conduct trials. That would take a few years, giving Compass an opportunity to cement it's business.
Could you expand a little bit on what is meant by "a synthetic version of psilocybin"? I could see them developing a proprietary
synthesis process but that doesn't provide much help with the biosynthetic pathway already in the public domain and the relatively low cost per does of producing psilocybin in the original mushrooms. Or do you mean compass is working not on psilocybin itself but a biochemical analog of psilocybin with a different chemical structure? I tried to look for any evidence of this, but as far as I can tell from their web presence they focus solely on regular psilocybin, not analogs. (For example K2 is an analog of marijuana).
It's also worth thinking in a bit more detail about what "cementing a business" looks like for a depression treatment. If Compass ends up with a few years of exclusivity, they could certainly charge a lot during that time. But I don't think drugs or psychotherapy (and a magic mushroom based treatment is somewhere in between) are businesses where a lot of brand loyalty is built up, nor one where it is possible to achieve vast economies of scale that make it hard for new competitors to enter the market and gain market share. That's why most of the profit from pharmaceutical companies comes in the time before drugs go off patent. Once the generics enter the market, even people who have been taken the brand name for a decade are (usually) happy to switch if the price is lower. Or the number of people who switch from one shrink to another to stay "in network" on their health insurance plan and hence save money.
Also, how big is the market opportunity? As big as Viagra? Bigger? (only 50% of the population is ever eligible for Viagra whereas 100% of the population is potentially susceptible to depression/PTSD, etc.)
Just playing devil's advocate here:
My understanding of the treatment for depression/PTSD with LSD or magic mushrooms is either a one time thing or at worst something one would revisit every six-twelve months. Presumably (from the user's perspective hopefully) the use case for viagra comes around significantly more often than once or twice a year?
Of course there is also the question of cost per use and all that, but if we're just comparing market size.