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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: the.one.who.wonders on August 14, 2016, 06:09:31 AM

Title: Projecting yield returns
Post by: the.one.who.wonders on August 14, 2016, 06:09:31 AM

Hi all!

What sources/methods do you use to project future return to apply to your FIRE scenarios?

Title: Re: Projecting yield returns
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on August 16, 2016, 01:26:15 PM

http://cfiresim.com/  is very helpful

Title: Re: Projecting yield returns
Post by: forummm on August 16, 2016, 05:33:05 PM

Yes, cFIREsim. Average return on investments is much less important than the sequence of returns you experience over the life of your retirement period. It's a great tool that uses real historical data.

Title: Re: Projecting yield returns
Post by: MDM on August 17, 2016, 12:42:32 AM

Print the table shown in Callan periodic table of investment returns - Bogleheads (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Callan_periodic_table_of_investment_returns), hang it on the wall, then throw darts and read the answers closest to the dart holes.

Or assume 4% nominal growth with 3% inflation.

Not sure which approach is better. :)