Author Topic: Projecting yield returns  (Read 1018 times)

Lonely Artisan

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 39
Projecting yield returns
« on: August 14, 2016, 06:09:31 AM »
Hi all!

What sources/methods do you use to project future return to apply to your FIRE scenarios?

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1943
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: Projecting yield returns
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2016, 01:26:15 PM »
http://cfiresim.com/  is very helpful

forummm

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7357
  • Senior Mustachian
Re: Projecting yield returns
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2016, 05:33:05 PM »
Yes, cFIREsim. Average return on investments is much less important than the sequence of returns you experience over the life of your retirement period. It's a great tool that uses real historical data.

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9183
Re: Projecting yield returns
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2016, 12:42:32 AM »
Print the table shown in Callan periodic table of investment returns - Bogleheads, hang it on the wall, then throw darts and read the answers closest to the dart holes.

Or assume 4% nominal growth with 3% inflation.

Not sure which approach is better. :)