Just analyzing this situation out of curiousity...
My brief, ignorant online searches show that chapter 7 bankruptcy, where a company is dissolved, takes 4-6 months. A reorganization through chapter 11 bankruptcy could take 6-24 months. Hertz filed for chapter 11, but has stated if conditions don't improve and relief is lacking, it's uncertain if they can stay in business.
Here's the last contract price of $1 puts of various dates and potential profit at $0/share:
2022-Jan-21 0.71 => .29/.71 = +41%
2021-Apr-16 0.48 => .52/.48 = +108%
2021-Jan-15 0.28 => .72/.28 = +257%
2020-Nov-20 0.20 => .80/.20 = +400%
2020-Oct-16 0.10 => .90/.10 = +900%
2020-Sep-25 0.05 => .95/.05 = +1900%
There's a couple ways Hertz could drag things out:
(1) Covid vaccines make airport car rental viable again. The current estimate is first half of 2021 for widespread vaccination, meaning Hertz would need to survive 8-12 months in order to see it's business prospects pick up.
(2) Hertz employs tens of thousands of people. Congress might provide a relief bill that includes Hertz, and keeps it going.
Although Hertz filed chapter 11 (change loans and keep going), in current circumstances chapter 7 (out of business) seems likely. Hertz has no way to make revenue, no certain future date for revenue, and has already been losing money every year for the past 4 years. It's a great candidate to go under.... but when?
I assume "4-6 months" is from the time of a chapter 7 filing. Hertz hasn't filed chapter 7 yet, so the clock still needs to start on that. If Hertz converts to a chapter 7 filing, they still have to sell their vehicle fleet, which will probably go more slowly during Covid-19. So an unknown amount of time in the future, plus more than 6 months.
Buying HTZ Jan 2022 $1 put options right now costs $0.71 per contract (x100 shares, $71 each). Buying 15 contracts costs $1065, and if Hertz completes bankruptcy in the next 1.4 years, HTZ shares are $0/share. In that scenario, each contract is worth $100, or $1500 off a $1065 investment. So a gain of +40.8% over 1.4 years, or roughly 28% per year to the 1.4th power.
Ah, I forgot the price of buying a contract: although you pay $71 to the writer (or holder) of the contract, Vanguard charges $1 to buy or sell a contract, which adds $30 to the overall investment: $1500 / $1095, or a +37% profit. Over the 1.4 year time frame, that's bout +25% per year.