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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: Cyaphas on May 28, 2016, 02:48:09 PM

Title: Presidential election Cycles
Post by: Cyaphas on May 28, 2016, 02:48:09 PM

https://gbr.pepperdine.edu/2010/08/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-cycles/


Table 3 is pretty interesting.

Personally I'm on a wait until after the election to invest. But still, the returns difference on those two investors is pretty ridiculous.

Title: Re: Presidential election Cycles
Post by: matchewed on May 28, 2016, 02:53:08 PM

We're pattern finding machines, even if there may not be an actual pattern.

Title: Re: Presidential election Cycles
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on May 28, 2016, 04:01:13 PM

Why do S&P 500 index funds, which ignore this pattern, keep beating 80-90% of active fund managers, who know about this pattern?

Title: Re: Presidential election Cycles
Post by: massmustache on May 31, 2016, 12:35:47 PM

Quote from: Cyaphas on May 28, 2016, 02:48:09 PM

Personally I'm on a wait until after the election to invest. But still, the returns difference on those two investors is pretty ridiculous.

I thought about this as well given that the two candidates share amazingly negative favorability ratings... then I realized that if I was thinking that, then a lot of others were... and it probably was just a waste of time trying to time investments... so my recent lump sum chugs along DCA over next few months.