Author Topic: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In  (Read 10063 times)

HumanAfterAll

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Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« on: November 07, 2012, 08:33:09 AM »
Wow, I should have saved a bigger chunk to invest the day after the election.  US markets are already down 1.9% after an hour and a half of trading. 

Capitalize on those who think this is doomsday and are cashing-in!

Another Reader

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2012, 08:38:53 AM »
Yawn....call me when there's a real correction, like 10 percent.

fiveoh

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2012, 10:27:58 AM »
Yawn....call me when there's a real correction, like 10 percent.

that could happen with all this fiscal cliff stuff going around.

Another Reader

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2012, 11:13:09 AM »
If we go off the fiscal cliff because of political paralysis, the market could go down more than 10 percent.  Markets hate uncertainty.

I buy stuff when it's really on sale, including stocks.  Today's stock market prices do not constitute a sale.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2012, 11:27:31 AM by Another Reader »

tooqk4u22

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2012, 11:25:43 AM »
It is not a sale but a glimpse of what is to come.  Fiscall cliff will not get solved in next 45 days, which will create uncertainty, and there will be year end selling ahead of the known and unkown (but probable) tax increases that are coming next year. 

Another Reader

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2012, 11:32:25 AM »
The changes in store with the fiscal cliff, including the expiration of the tax cuts, will probably drive a lot of stock sales.  It may take years to recover from the changes, but if you have years, keep an eye on value and buy when you see value. 

It will be interesting to see who among the forum commentors stays the course and who cuts and runs.

markstache

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2012, 11:45:39 AM »
How would the buy-n-hold novice investor how has some cash take advantage of a big sell off via index funds? Any trickyness regarding fund value computations being different than real time trading prices?

HumanAfterAll

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2012, 12:03:32 PM »
I believe Vanguard index funds use the closing price the day the transaction is initiated, even though it takes a few days to clear.

Good perspective here!  As someone still in the accumulation phase, and reading stories of runs on ammunition and other irrational reactions to the election, I am entertained.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2012, 12:40:49 PM »
The changes in store with the fiscal cliff, including the expiration of the tax cuts, will probably drive a lot of stock sales.  It may take years to recover from the changes, but if you have years, keep an eye on value and buy when you see value. 

It will be interesting to see who among the forum commentors stays the course and who cuts and runs.

At the end of September I sold out of my non-retirement holdings to offset some gains and losses (some were carry overs), locking tax treatment and to a lesser extent because I thought they had run and saw the looming clouds, the stocks are down about 8% since then.   Because I like them all for the long term I plan to buy them all back (except one or two) sooner rather than later (again it wasn't really about timing) and if they hit the 10% correction mark then I won't wait regardless of it is tomorrow or December 31. 

I didn't touch the retirement accounts.

grantmeaname

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2012, 12:06:04 PM »
I'm sure you guys know better than the guys at Goldman who're making $600,000 a year because they're that brilliant at modeling the myriad effects of a political occurence, and mean more than that to the company.

sol

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2012, 02:43:03 PM »
I'm a lot less worried about fluctuations in the stock market than I am about changes in tax treatments.

The 2% FICAl tax cut that was instituted last year is set to expire, and nobody is talking about saving it.  Instant 2% loss of income compared to last year, and even though I support the idea it still stings a little.

I live in a state with no state income tax, and such states have historically had a federal tax deduction for state sales tax to offset the benefits that people from income-taxing states get from deducting their state income taxes.  Unfortunately, it looks like the state sales tax deduction (but not the income tax deduction, just to rub it in) is expiring, which is going to cost us several thousand dollars per year.

I'm not so worried about the Bush tax cuts, as I suspect they will stay for people in my income bracket.  Likewise I don't care much about the expiration of unemployment benefits or the doc fix, as they don't affect me personally.  But there are a handful of other taxes (for healthcare and capital gains, for example) that are probably going up, and that complicates my planning spreadsheets.

The stock market taking a 5 or 10% dive?  Just whistles in the wind, easy to overlook if your time horizon is long enough.


tooqk4u22

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2012, 08:24:28 AM »
I'm sure you guys know better than the guys at Goldman who're making $600,000 a year because they're that brilliant at modeling the myriad effects of a political occurence, and mean more than that to the company.

Just because they make $600k a year doesn't make them smarter or better...remember they are traders and not investors. And everytrade has a countertrade (actual trade or derivative of some kind) to limit the downside and they have better tools to game the market. 

Another Reader

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2012, 08:47:26 AM »
The Goldman guys are short term traders.  You are up against them if you are also a short term trader.  Good luck with that. 

However, if you have a time horizon of 30 or more years, you don't really care about these guys.  You are in the buy and hold camp.  If you keep cash reserves, when the market corrects 10 percent because someone in Greece lobs a Molotov cocktail, you squeeze something out of your reserves and toss it in the market.  Maybe it corrects another 10 percent because of something else.  If you can, you squeeze your reserves a little harder and throw a little more at the stock market.  Otherwise, you shrug and turn your attention elsewhere.  You are not always going to be right, but over time, you will benefit from your entry points.

Rangifer

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2012, 08:51:06 PM »
^^^^ Yep.

And even the long term guys can't take anywhere near the risk you or I could. If I lost 15% on a some risky stock I put 500 bucks in, no big deal. Same thing happens to someone managing a 50M portfolio? Never working in wall street again

HumanAfterAll

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2012, 11:01:45 AM »
Yawn....call me when there's a real correction, like 10 percent.

8.5% and dropping... 1350 from the high of 1474

zoltani

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2012, 11:31:51 AM »
Picked up some NSC at 56.9, looking good at these levels.  I was tempted to nibble on some more INTC, but I already bought enough the past month or two.

fiveoh

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2012, 11:43:25 AM »
Picked up some NSC at 56.9, looking good at these levels.  I was tempted to nibble on some more INTC, but I already bought enough the past month or two.

Good call on NSC, I picked some up around 60.50... if it goes down to low 50s i will probably buy more.  Just got some MCD today at 83.75...

Oh wait, we shouldnt discuss our non ETF buys since we are just throwing money away and will lose to those funds in the long run.  :) 

Another Reader

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2012, 12:39:37 PM »
Yep, and now I am paying attention.  My guess is this correction has a bit farther to go while the clueless fools in Washington figure out what to do, but you never know.  Maybe there will be a Black Friday sale on stocks, and we won't have to line up after our Thanksgiving dinners to take advantage of it!

zoltani

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2012, 01:15:51 PM »
Yeah, hopefully more opportunity is on the way, and hopefully I will have the cash to pull the trigger.

Funny thing I was thinking today.  In my less frugal days I would shop online at work, buy various crap, now i shop online, but for stocks. 

tooqk4u22

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2012, 04:16:54 PM »
Picked up some NSC at 56.9, looking good at these levels.  I was tempted to nibble on some more INTC, but I already bought enough the past month or two.

Good call on NSC, I picked some up around 60.50... if it goes down to low 50s i will probably buy more.  Just got some MCD today at 83.75...

Oh wait, we shouldnt discuss our non ETF buys since we are just throwing money away and will lose to those funds in the long run.  :)

NSC is very troubling to me - not because there is something wrong with the long term prospects of the company (maybe there is and maybe there is not) but because it is one of those leading indicators if revenue/profits are slipping its because goods aren't shipping - and if that is the case then it is not a good sign for the economy or near term prospects for the market.

econberkeley

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #20 on: November 15, 2012, 08:06:23 PM »
S&P 500 hit below 12 month moving average. I would stay out of the market right now.

iamlindoro

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2012, 08:21:49 PM »
S&P 500 hit below 12 month moving average.  Index funds are on sale, everyone! (or soon will be!)  ;)
« Last Edit: November 15, 2012, 08:24:01 PM by iamlindoro »

Nords

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2012, 08:35:32 PM »
I'm sure you guys know better than the guys at Goldman who're making $600,000 a year because they're that brilliant at modeling the myriad effects of a political occurence, and mean more than that to the company.
I actually went to college with someone who became a senior Goldman guy.  "Brilliant" was not a word in his vocabulary, nor our descriptions of his behavior...

Jack

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2012, 05:46:36 AM »
S&P 500 hit below 12 month moving average. I would stay out of the market right now.

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." -- Warren Buffett

The market being below its moving average is exactly why it's a (relatively) good time to buy.

fiveoh

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2012, 08:39:22 AM »
Picked up some NSC at 56.9, looking good at these levels.  I was tempted to nibble on some more INTC, but I already bought enough the past month or two.

Good call on NSC, I picked some up around 60.50... if it goes down to low 50s i will probably buy more.  Just got some MCD today at 83.75...

Oh wait, we shouldnt discuss our non ETF buys since we are just throwing money away and will lose to those funds in the long run.  :)

NSC is very troubling to me - not because there is something wrong with the long term prospects of the company (maybe there is and maybe there is not) but because it is one of those leading indicators if revenue/profits are slipping its because goods aren't shipping - and if that is the case then it is not a good sign for the economy or near term prospects for the market.
Nsc is slipping because a large amount of their shipping is coal.  Coal demand is soft with the current low Nat gas price.  Also it's widely known that Obama is not a fan of coal

smedleyb

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #25 on: November 27, 2012, 11:16:41 AM »
S&P 500 hit below 12 month moving average. I would stay out of the market right now.

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." -- Warren Buffett

The market being below its moving average is exactly why it's a (relatively) good time to buy.

Jack wins. 

Naz tickling the underbelly of the 200 DMA as we speak; some say the best time to short is on the first test of broken support.   

grantmeaname

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #26 on: November 27, 2012, 12:22:55 PM »
Smedley lives! Welcome back, general.

smedleyb

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #27 on: November 27, 2012, 03:49:43 PM »
Smedley lives! Welcome back, general.

Good to be back, general.


grantmeaname

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #28 on: November 27, 2012, 04:28:58 PM »
Despite my general also being my avatar and my ancestor, that totally took me by surprise for some reason.

I've got a sweet efficient markets post for you next time I have a chunk of time to write it up with. I read a section of Pioneering Portfolio Management for my Open Yale course (link in signature), and was super impressed. The author's a market-beating weak EMH proponent, if you can believe that.

smedleyb

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Re: Post-Election Market Dip Buy-In
« Reply #29 on: November 27, 2012, 04:41:40 PM »
Despite my general also being my avatar and my ancestor, that totally took me by surprise for some reason.

I've got a sweet efficient markets post for you next time I have a chunk of time to write it up with. I read a section of Pioneering Portfolio Management for my Open Yale course (link in signature), and was super impressed. The author's a market-beating weak EMH proponent, if you can believe that.

Swensen's performance at Yale Endowment is legendary.  I look forward to reading your post.