Author Topic: Possible government shutdown?  (Read 13767 times)

Miss Stachio

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Possible government shutdown?
« on: September 30, 2013, 08:47:58 AM »
Looks like there's a good chance there will be a government shutdown.  Curious to see if this is affecting anyone's investment decisions and how.

Belial

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2013, 09:28:05 AM »
I just posted about this in the S&P 500 prediction thread.  I will likely take advantage of this to open a new Roth IRA today.

I'm tempted to move some additional money from my savings into the market.  But there's also the debt ceiling showdown coming up in a few weeks.  That may have a larger impact. 

Here's some analysis of previous budget showdowns and their impact on the market.  It looks promising to me. 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/09/27/stock-market-scenarios-political-fiscal-brinkmanship/2877061/

brewer12345

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2013, 10:12:04 AM »
This is a sideshow.  Wait for the gubmint debt limit fight for real fireworks.

Frankies Girl

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2013, 11:52:29 AM »
I'm not selling off anything and not worried or panicked about it. It seems like this sort of thing happens quite often, sort of a "chicken little the sky is falling" effect that comes around.

But I am sitting on a very large chunk of cash I was planning on adding to my investments, and I'm waiting to see if the market drops down a little more over the next couple of days before doing so (super sale price!). I know it's probably stupid market timing, but just don't relish dropping that new batch of cash in and seeing it lose a huge amount right off the bat. So probably getting it in there in the next week, but not today.


Belial

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2013, 12:42:05 PM »
Brewer12345, I think you're right.  I hadn't been paying too close of attention to this most recent round of brinksmanship, so I though there was going to be another last minute deal.  But it looks like there may be a short shutdown.  I'm guessing prices will continue to drop. 

The Financial Lexicon

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2013, 03:04:52 PM »
I echo brewer12345's comment.  The debt ceiling is the bigger deal.  If that doesn't get raised, it has the potential to make what happened after Lehman Brothers look like a cakewalk.
Regards,

The Financial Lexicon
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pom

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2013, 04:42:19 AM »
Definitely not changing my investment decisions which are basically:

1. Buy low cost index funds
2. Collect dividends
3. return to step 1


Left

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2013, 09:17:40 AM »
lol govt shut down, all my stocks went up :D Need to wait until further in week to see if it stays that way

overall looks like shutdown had no effect for me. Which is good, I was on vacation and didn't plan on changing it. I will buy more though

sol

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2013, 09:27:12 AM »
I intend to hold the course for a few days, but if Congress doesn't pass a budget soon then I will be changing all of our recurring investments to zero.

My household income goes to zero in another three hours because of the government shutdown.  We have many months of expenses saved up, but only if we do not continue to invest.  The downside of saving such a high percentage of your income is that your savings are by far your largest expense, and thus the first thing that has to go when you suddenly find yourself unemployed.  Thanks Congress!

I can live with being out of the market for a while.  It hurts more to know that I'm missing out on agency matching contributions to my retirement accounts, which won't be recoverable even if we get funded with back pay, which doesn't seem very likely right now.

We're considering the pros and cons of applying for unemployment benefits.

kyleaaa

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2013, 10:02:56 AM »
We're considering the pros and cons of applying for unemployment benefits.

Out of curiosity, what do you see as a potential con of applying for unemployment benefits? I'm not aware of any.

bo_knows

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2013, 10:11:19 AM »
I intend to hold the course for a few days, but if Congress doesn't pass a budget soon then I will be changing all of our recurring investments to zero.



My recurring investments were to kick off on 10/4.  I already suspended them.  My household income dropped by 2/3 when they shutdown.

AdrianM

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2013, 07:09:28 PM »
Talk about buying into the government news speak.

There is no "Government Shutdown" only a government forced to live within its means.

The government will still be there only now it can no longer borrow to pay for all the pork.

This is a good thing because when you are in a hole ($16 trillion) the first thing you should do is stop digging.


Jack

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2013, 07:20:23 PM »
Talk about buying into the government news speak.

There is no "Government Shutdown" only a government forced to live within its means.

The government will still be there only now it can no longer borrow to pay for all the pork.

This is a good thing because when you are in a hole ($16 trillion) the first thing you should do is stop digging.

The trouble is that the government is doing the equivalent of blowing its budget on hookers and blow while leaving the utilities and rent unpaid. And it's doing this on purpose in order to make the "shutdown" as painful as possible for the Average American, so that we'll complain and get our (i.e., the "other side's") representatives to back down and let the runaway train continue to careen towards the cliff.

By the way: it's "newspeak," not "news speak." It's a reference to the novel 1984, not the partisan talking heads infesting the TV these days. (At least not directly -- said talking heads are admittedly increasingly Orwellian...)

sol

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2013, 07:34:39 PM »
Out of curiosity, what do you see as a potential con of applying for unemployment benefits? I'm not aware of any.

1.  It's a lot of paperwork and hassle that might be unnecessary, if we get reactivated and awarded back pay.  In that case we'd have to return any unemployment benefits we collected.  It's just a headache.

2.  If the shutdown only lasts for a few days, we won't quality for unemployment anyway.  There are laws about how long you have to be unemployed before you can collect.  We could potentially do a lot of work for nothing if we get reactivated within a week or so.

3.  Receiving ongoing unemployment benefits might mean being required to look for a new job.  This is a waste of my time and potential employers' time if I'm going to go back to my federal job eventually.

4.  I've never been on unemployment before, and am not entirely free of the stigma associated with handouts.

sol

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2013, 07:38:43 PM »
There is no "Government Shutdown" only a government forced to live within its means.

I beg to differ, for multiple reasons.

There IS a government shutdown, because my wife and I are both federal employees and we are suddenly unemployed.  I have a family to support, and no income.  This is not an illusion.

"Forced to live within its means" can mean a lot of things, but none of them are accomplished by sending federal employees home.  This only COSTS the government money, it does not save money. 

And even if it did save money on federal salaries, salaries are such a minute portion of government expenditures that it won't make any difference is balancing the budget.  In terms of balancing the budget, we'd be better off raising the SS/medicare age by six months then by firing the entire federal workforce.

brewer12345

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2013, 08:16:24 PM »
3.  Receiving ongoing unemployment benefits might mean being required to look for a new job.  This is a waste of my time and potential employers' time if I'm going to go back to my federal job eventually.

"I keep applying for that poledancer job at the local strip joint.  Its not my fault they never hire me for it!"

AdrianM

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2013, 08:38:29 PM »
Talk about buying into the government news speak.

There is no "Government Shutdown" only a government forced to live within its means.

The government will still be there only now it can no longer borrow to pay for all the pork.

This is a good thing because when you are in a hole ($16 trillion) the first thing you should do is stop digging.

The trouble is that the government is doing the equivalent of blowing its budget on hookers and blow while leaving the utilities and rent unpaid. And it's doing this on purpose in order to make the "shutdown" as painful as possible for the Average American, so that we'll complain and get our (i.e., the "other side's") representatives to back down and let the runaway train continue to careen towards the cliff.

By the way: it's "newspeak," not "news speak." It's a reference to the novel 1984, not the partisan talking heads infesting the TV these days. (At least not directly -- said talking heads are admittedly increasingly Orwellian...)

Thank you for the correct spelling of "Newspeak" and yes I was referencing 1984 by using this term.

AdrianM

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2013, 09:01:10 PM »
There is no "Government Shutdown" only a government forced to live within its means.

I beg to differ, for multiple reasons.

There IS a government shutdown, because my wife and I are both federal employees and we are suddenly unemployed.  I have a family to support, and no income.  This is not an illusion.

"Forced to live within its means" can mean a lot of things, but none of them are accomplished by sending federal employees home.  This only COSTS the government money, it does not save money. 

And even if it did save money on federal salaries, salaries are such a minute portion of government expenditures that it won't make any difference is balancing the budget.  In terms of balancing the budget, we'd be better off raising the SS/medicare age by six months then by firing the entire federal workforce.

Mate while I feel for you becoming unemployed. I also wonder why you and you wife did not carry out a risk assessment and realize that both being employed in the same industry or employer puts you in danger of becoming unemployed simultaneously.

I have been unemployed twice in the last three years due to lack of work and downsizing I also have a family to support but what I won't do is go an get a job in the same industry or employer as any of my extended family. This means that should things go wrong, then we are not up the proverbial. While this is cold comfort to you now, maybe in time it is a lesson you can learn.


sol

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2013, 09:47:10 PM »
While this is cold comfort to you now, maybe in time it is a lesson you can learn.

If only I had gotten married before applying for jobs!  Oh, the humanity!  Fate, why art thou so cruel?


iamlindoro

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2013, 10:26:10 PM »
While this is cold comfort to you now, maybe in time it is a lesson you can learn.

If only I had gotten married before applying for jobs!  Oh, the humanity!  Fate, why art thou so cruel?



So why didn't you carry out a pre-courtship risk assessment to determine whether her profession and employer was compatible with your long term job security?</sarcasm>  ;)

brewer12345

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2013, 10:33:57 PM »
There is no "Government Shutdown" only a government forced to live within its means.

I beg to differ, for multiple reasons.

There IS a government shutdown, because my wife and I are both federal employees and we are suddenly unemployed.  I have a family to support, and no income.  This is not an illusion.

"Forced to live within its means" can mean a lot of things, but none of them are accomplished by sending federal employees home.  This only COSTS the government money, it does not save money. 

And even if it did save money on federal salaries, salaries are such a minute portion of government expenditures that it won't make any difference is balancing the budget.  In terms of balancing the budget, we'd be better off raising the SS/medicare age by six months then by firing the entire federal workforce.

Mate while I feel for you becoming unemployed. I also wonder why you and you wife did not carry out a risk assessment and realize that both being employed in the same industry or employer puts you in danger of becoming unemployed simultaneously.

I have been unemployed twice in the last three years due to lack of work and downsizing I also have a family to support but what I won't do is go an get a job in the same industry or employer as any of my extended family. This means that should things go wrong, then we are not up the proverbial. While this is cold comfort to you now, maybe in time it is a lesson you can learn.

Are you an America taxpayer/voter?  No?  Then butt out.

beltim

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2013, 10:54:48 PM »

The trouble is that the government is doing the equivalent of blowing its budget on hookers and blow while leaving the utilities and rent unpaid. And it's doing this on purpose in order to make the "shutdown" as painful as possible for the Average American, so that we'll complain and get our (i.e., the "other side's") representatives to back down and let the runaway train continue to careen towards the cliff.

By the way: it's "newspeak," not "news speak." It's a reference to the novel 1984, not the partisan talking heads infesting the TV these days. (At least not directly -- said talking heads are admittedly increasingly Orwellian...)

One the one hand I agree with you.  On the other hand, if the entire government were to shut down - no FAA, no Social Security checks, no border patrol - there would never be a government shutdown because no politician who let that happen would ever be elected again.  If people couldn't travel and retirees stopped getting subsistence payments, politicians would really hear it.

dragoncar

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2013, 10:56:30 PM »
While this is cold comfort to you now, maybe in time it is a lesson you can learn.

If only I had gotten married before applying for jobs!  Oh, the humanity!  Fate, why art thou so cruel?

Modern Marriage Theory posits that optimal employment diversification can be obtained where one spouse works in a relatively low paying, but extremely stable profession (e.g., city government) to provide a baseline income and benefits, and the other spouse works in a high risk/reward job (e.g., tech startups).

Insanity

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2013, 07:50:25 AM »
I won't do is go an get a job in the same industry or employer as any of my extended family. This means that should things go wrong, then we are not up the proverbial. While this is cold comfort to you now, maybe in time it is a lesson you can learn.

Industry???  REALLY!!!! That's pushing it.

Nothlit

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2013, 09:54:33 AM »
Talk about buying into the government news speak.

There is no "Government Shutdown" only a government forced to live within its means.

The government will still be there only now it can no longer borrow to pay for all the pork.

This is a good thing because when you are in a hole ($16 trillion) the first thing you should do is stop digging.

I think you are conflating the government shutdown (aka stop work order), which we are currently experiencing, with the debt ceiling issue, which will be coming up in a few weeks and is a completely separate issue. If/when we hit the debt ceiling, THAT is when the government will no longer be able to borrow money. The current situation is that Congress has not passed a budget authorizing the government to SPEND any money.

Just wanted to clarify that, because it is easy to confuse the two. The shutdown has to do with authorization for spending. The debt ceiling has to do with authorization for borrowing.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2013, 09:56:48 AM by Nothlit »

beltim

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #25 on: October 02, 2013, 10:42:49 AM »
Here's an interesting evaluation of what happened to the market in previous government shutdowns:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1724732-market-performance-during-government-shutdown-predicts-future-market-performance

thepokercab

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #26 on: October 02, 2013, 11:11:15 AM »
Quote
Mate while I feel for you becoming unemployed. I also wonder why you and you wife did not carry out a risk assessment and realize that both being employed in the same industry or employer puts you in danger of becoming unemployed simultaneously.

I couldn't agree more.  All things within a marriage should be diversified in order to increase efficiency and optimization.  I had to break it off with my first girlfriend because we ended up both being Aries'- and you MUST diversify when it comes astrology.  Would you want the whole household to be tied to the same horoscope?  Absolutely not.    I went out with a really nice woman last month, but found out that she was a Democrat.  Well,  I'm a Democrat, and my household needs to have ideological diversification. 

In other news, I'm finding its a challenge to settle down with someone.     

tooqk4u22

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #27 on: October 02, 2013, 11:55:00 AM »
There is no "Government Shutdown" only a government forced to live within its means.

I beg to differ, for multiple reasons.

There IS a government shutdown, because my wife and I are both federal employees and we are suddenly unemployed.  I have a family to support, and no income.  This is not an illusion.

"Forced to live within its means" can mean a lot of things, but none of them are accomplished by sending federal employees home.  This only COSTS the government money, it does not save money. 

And even if it did save money on federal salaries, salaries are such a minute portion of government expenditures that it won't make any difference is balancing the budget.  In terms of balancing the budget, we'd be better off raising the SS/medicare age by six months then by firing the entire federal workforce.

Mate while I feel for you becoming unemployed. I also wonder why you and you wife did not carry out a risk assessment and realize that both being employed in the same industry or employer puts you in danger of becoming unemployed simultaneously.

I have been unemployed twice in the last three years due to lack of work and downsizing I also have a family to support but what I won't do is go an get a job in the same industry or employer as any of my extended family. This means that should things go wrong, then we are not up the proverbial. While this is cold comfort to you now, maybe in time it is a lesson you can learn.

Are you an America taxpayer/voter?  No?  Then butt out.

Don't be mean....it is actualy a fair question. And spouses both choose to work for the governemnt, especially given recent history and trends, then it would be prudent to have a plan....Sol has done so with an emergency fund.

Spouses work at different companies/industries and live on one paycheck...then emergency fund need may be small or none at all.

Different industries/jobs but need both or most paychecks then larger EF.

Similar industries/jobs then larger EF.

SAME industry/jobs then larger EF.

And so on.



And......800,000 non-essential employees furloughed due to stalemate....think about that for a moment.

beltim

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #28 on: October 02, 2013, 12:00:59 PM »

And......800,000 non-essential employees furloughed due to stalemate....think about that for a moment.

Ugh, I hate this talking point.  Do you know what the definition of "excepted" employees is?  Those where the job "function addresses emergency circumstances, such that the suspension of the function would imminently threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property" (http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/memoranda/2013/m-13-22.pdf).  How many people at your workplace have a job where if they stopped working, it would "immediately threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property?"  My guess is only the security personnel. 

sol

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #29 on: October 02, 2013, 12:12:18 PM »
How many people at your workplace have a job where if they stopped working, it would "immediately threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property?"  My guess is only the security personnel.

Most jobs in the economy do not meet the exemption requirements.  Interestingly, the jobs that DO qualify are typically NOT the ones that create value for the economy. 

Security guards are a good example.  Their jobs only exist to protect the people who create the real value at the corporation, doing whatever money making business the corporation does.  Yet during a shutdown, all of the people who create wealth get sent home while the guards stand post protecting nothing.

dragoncar

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #30 on: October 02, 2013, 12:27:08 PM »
How many people at your workplace have a job where if they stopped working, it would "immediately threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property?"  My guess is only the security personnel.

Most jobs in the economy do not meet the exemption requirements.  Interestingly, the jobs that DO qualify are typically NOT the ones that create value for the economy. 

Security guards are a good example.  Their jobs only exist to protect the people who create the real value at the corporation, doing whatever money making business the corporation does.  Yet during a shutdown, all of the people who create wealth get sent home while the guards stand post protecting nothing.

Mostly agree, but the guards are there to protect capital.  You want the buildings to be there when the people come back to work.

Strictly speaking, of course, almost nothing is "essential."  We could let bandits loot and burn our federal buildings and then rebuild them later.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #31 on: October 02, 2013, 12:33:26 PM »

And......800,000 non-essential employees furloughed due to stalemate....think about that for a moment.

Ugh, I hate this talking point.  Do you know what the definition of "excepted" employees is?  Those where the job "function addresses emergency circumstances, such that the suspension of the function would imminently threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property" (http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/memoranda/2013/m-13-22.pdf).  How many people at your workplace have a job where if they stopped working, it would "immediately threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property?"  My guess is only the security personnel.

I did not mean it as a talking point, I mean it as fact. I know my job is non-essential, in fact just about everyones is in the private sector, and can be terminated at any time for any reason. To minimize this I work my ass off, try to increase revenue or reduce expenses, and generally try to bring as much value as I can to my employer. Even if I do everything right, it I can still lose for any number of reasons...change in managers, company goes under or underperforms or is acquired (been through all of these BTW).

The notion that government employees expect to be immune to this is irresponsible on their part.

beltim

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #32 on: October 02, 2013, 12:50:59 PM »

And......800,000 non-essential employees furloughed due to stalemate....think about that for a moment.

Ugh, I hate this talking point.  Do you know what the definition of "excepted" employees is?  Those where the job "function addresses emergency circumstances, such that the suspension of the function would imminently threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property" (http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/memoranda/2013/m-13-22.pdf).  How many people at your workplace have a job where if they stopped working, it would "immediately threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property?"  My guess is only the security personnel.

I did not mean it as a talking point, I mean it as fact. I know my job is non-essential, in fact just about everyones is in the private sector, and can be terminated at any time for any reason. To minimize this I work my ass off, try to increase revenue or reduce expenses, and generally try to bring as much value as I can to my employer. Even if I do everything right, it I can still lose for any number of reasons...change in managers, company goes under or underperforms or is acquired (been through all of these BTW).

The notion that government employees expect to be immune to this is irresponsible on their part.

Very well then, what are we supposed to draw from "think[ing] about that for a moment?"  I see a higher percentage of government employees protecting human life and property than the private sector.  I see them doing absolutely necessary roles in society that private companies can't or won't do.  And I see 800,000 of them furloughed because Congress can't get its act together.

What was the result of your thinking about it for a moment?

sol

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #33 on: October 02, 2013, 12:55:03 PM »
I know my job is non-essential, in fact just about everyones is in the private sector, and can be terminated at any time for any reason. To minimize this I work my ass off

I think you might be missing the point.  There is no amount of hard work or general awesomeness that you can exhibit to make your job "essential" under the shutdown law.  You could be the single hardest working individual in the history of the world and your company's most valuable employee and still not qualify.  You could be responsible for 100% of all corporate profits and still not qualify.

And to be clear, federal employees do not think they they are immune to this effect, which is why they all agreed to go home and twiddle their thumbs like they were told to.  You haven't seen any federal employee protests on the news, and you won't.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #34 on: October 02, 2013, 01:12:28 PM »
I think you might be missing the point.  There is no amount of hard work or general awesomeness that you can exhibit to make your job "essential" under the shutdown law.  You could be the single hardest working individual in the history of the world and your company's most valuable employee and still not qualify.  You could be responsible for 100% of all corporate profits and still not qualify.

Quite the contrary, I said that even I did all those things my job could still end up being non-essential....that is the point and if you think like that then you can plan for it, which goes back to the risk analysis comment AdrianM made.

And to be clear, federal employees do not think they they are immune to this effect, which is why they all agreed to go home and twiddle their thumbs like they were told to.  You haven't seen any federal employee protests on the news, and you won't.

First of all they had to go home.  As for not protesting in the streets I suspect that is because the vast majority expect it to last only a couple of days, if it lasts weeks (not good BTW) I'll wager you'll see more action.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #35 on: October 02, 2013, 01:22:46 PM »
I see a higher percentage of government employees protecting human life and property than the private sector. 

Seriously, get off your soap box and step back into reality.

I see them doing absolutely necessary roles in society that private companies can't or won't do.

Again,  seriously.  While there are certainly things that the government and its employees provide that meet this comment I don't know that I would put this in a high percentage category.....scratch that I think your right because private companies typically do not endeavor to invest signifcant resources into money losing propositions many of which are simply based on well I have 1000 employees so lets hire a 1000 more.

And I see 800,000 of them furloughed because Congress can't get its act together.

What was the result of your thinking about it for a moment?

See last comment. I am not suggesting that those people aren't productive or aren't contributing to society in some way but the fact is they are still non-essential, like me and everyone in the private sector....and it sucks to be furloughed regardless.....well a few days might be nice. 

As for it being caused by congress, while it may be true but that is the inherent risk of working for a government.  Just like anything else the government is involved in or makes decisions about it is never done in the most rational and efficient manner.


brewer12345

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #36 on: October 02, 2013, 01:29:08 PM »

And......800,000 non-essential employees furloughed due to stalemate....think about that for a moment.

Ugh, I hate this talking point.  Do you know what the definition of "excepted" employees is?  Those where the job "function addresses emergency circumstances, such that the suspension of the function would imminently threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property" (http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/memoranda/2013/m-13-22.pdf).  How many people at your workplace have a job where if they stopped working, it would "immediately threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property?"  My guess is only the security personnel.

I did not mean it as a talking point, I mean it as fact. I know my job is non-essential, in fact just about everyones is in the private sector, and can be terminated at any time for any reason. To minimize this I work my ass off, try to increase revenue or reduce expenses, and generally try to bring as much value as I can to my employer. Even if I do everything right, it I can still lose for any number of reasons...change in managers, company goes under or underperforms or is acquired (been through all of these BTW).

The notion that government employees expect to be immune to this is irresponsible on their part.

If gubmint employees have such a great deal, then go right out there and get one of those sweet, easy jobs and leave your private sector worries behind.  You got a drug conviction that is stopping you from doing so?

sol

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #37 on: October 02, 2013, 01:30:03 PM »
I see a higher percentage of government employees protecting human life and property than the private sector. 

Seriously, get off your soap box and step back into reality.

This is just a quibble, but over half of federal employees are military, and their job by definition involves protecting human life and property.  Unless you're arguing that more than half of the private sector qualifies, I think you have to give beltim the point on this one.  In this case, I think his soapbox is reality.
 

tooqk4u22

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #38 on: October 02, 2013, 01:51:36 PM »
If gubmint employees have such a great deal, then go right out there and get one of those sweet, easy jobs and leave your private sector worries behind.  You got a drug conviction that is stopping you from doing so?

Typical stanard response from a government employee....BTW where did I say they had it so great.  I think I said they shouldn't expect anything different than the private sector when it comes to being viewed as non-essential. But good for you to go in another direction.

This is just a quibble, but over half of federal employees are military, and their job by definition involves protecting human life and property.  Unless you're arguing that more than half of the private sector qualifies, I think you have to give beltim the point on this one.  In this case, I think his soapbox is reality.

Fair point, but the security industry employees about a million people, not to mention corporations employ many people that protect things. What about private health care, maybe they don't protect but they certainly fix and save.  There are likely other jobs and industries that I could come up with.

Also, how many of the military personell are in non-combat, non-security type of roles....a lot I suspect given the need of mechanics, invenotory clerks, janitors, etc. that are all needed to have a functioning military but in the context of the quibble don't necessarily meet the protecting human life and property standard.


Undecided

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #39 on: October 02, 2013, 01:53:03 PM »

All things within a marriage should be diversified in order to increase efficiency and optimization.  I had to break it off with my first girlfriend because we ended up both being Aries'- and you MUST diversify when it comes astrology.  Would you want the whole household to be tied to the same horoscope?  Absolutely not.    I went out with a really nice woman last month, but found out that she was a Democrat.  Well,  I'm a Democrat, and my household needs to have ideological diversification. 

In other news, I'm finding its a challenge to settle down with someone.   

Don't forget that when you find that special someone, you definitely shouldn't share a single house or even live in the same geographic area. Too much exposure to a single potential catastrophe.

matchewed

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #40 on: October 02, 2013, 01:54:29 PM »

All things within a marriage should be diversified in order to increase efficiency and optimization.  I had to break it off with my first girlfriend because we ended up both being Aries'- and you MUST diversify when it comes astrology.  Would you want the whole household to be tied to the same horoscope?  Absolutely not.    I went out with a really nice woman last month, but found out that she was a Democrat.  Well,  I'm a Democrat, and my household needs to have ideological diversification. 

In other news, I'm finding its a challenge to settle down with someone.   

Don't forget that when you find that special someone, you definitely shouldn't share a single house or even live in the same geographic area. Too much exposure to a single potential catastrophe.

Well got that covered with that totally real girlfriend of mine who lives in Canada.

beltim

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #41 on: October 02, 2013, 02:04:32 PM »

What was the result of your thinking about it for a moment?

See last comment. I am not suggesting that those people aren't productive or aren't contributing to society in some way but the fact is they are still non-essential, like me and everyone in the private sector....and it sucks to be furloughed regardless.....well a few days might be nice. 

As for it being caused by congress, while it may be true but that is the inherent risk of working for a government.  Just like anything else the government is involved in or makes decisions about it is never done in the most rational and efficient manner.

So you're saying these employees may be productive, may contribute to society, but don't protect human life or property?  I agree, but I don't see what the point of the comment is.

brewer12345

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #42 on: October 02, 2013, 02:37:43 PM »
If gubmint employees have such a great deal, then go right out there and get one of those sweet, easy jobs and leave your private sector worries behind.  You got a drug conviction that is stopping you from doing so?

Typical stanard response from a government employee....BTW where did I say they had it so great.  I think I said they shouldn't expect anything different than the private sector when it comes to being viewed as non-essential. But good for you to go in another direction.

This is just a quibble, but over half of federal employees are military, and their job by definition involves protecting human life and property.  Unless you're arguing that more than half of the private sector qualifies, I think you have to give beltim the point on this one.  In this case, I think his soapbox is reality.

Fair point, but the security industry employees about a million people, not to mention corporations employ many people that protect things. What about private health care, maybe they don't protect but they certainly fix and save.  There are likely other jobs and industries that I could come up with.

Also, how many of the military personell are in non-combat, non-security type of roles....a lot I suspect given the need of mechanics, invenotory clerks, janitors, etc. that are all needed to have a functioning military but in the context of the quibble don't necessarily meet the protecting human life and property standard.

I am not a gubmint employee.  You know what happens when you assume.

As for another direction, I think not.  Your whole little temper tantrum seems to be based on some sort of problem with the fact that you could be laid off.  You seem to believe that gubmint employees are not affected by this worry.  Seems like a really simple solution for you to get a job with some agency or other and become one of those gubmint drones.

hybrid

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #43 on: October 03, 2013, 10:02:27 AM »
Looks like there's a good chance there will be a government shutdown.  Curious to see if this is affecting anyone's investment decisions and how.

I yanked my money out of the market last week.  I avoided losses in the last debt ceiling showdown and I believe the market has no place to go but down when stuff like this happens.  I don't try to market time very often, but I will in exceptional circumstances like these.

When the storm clears, I'm back.  No regrets so far.

smedleyb

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #44 on: October 03, 2013, 08:47:10 PM »
Looks like there's a good chance there will be a government shutdown.  Curious to see if this is affecting anyone's investment decisions and how.

I yanked my money out of the market last week.  I avoided losses in the last debt ceiling showdown and I believe the market has no place to go but down when stuff like this happens.  I don't try to market time very often, but I will in exceptional circumstances like these.

When the storm clears, I'm back.  No regrets so far.

I can think of several reasons to go all cash.  40-50 obstinate but highly principled Republicans is not a game-changer in my investment universe.  A shallow pullback is playing out, but the high-end business of managed money is drastically lagging behind the S&P which is up 20% year to date.  I would be shocked, shocked I say, if any meaningful dip (5-10%, and we're halfway there) is not gobbled up by underinvested funds as they seek to make up lost ground into year end.   

Besides, in the age of the high frequency trading, nimbleness is best left to the algos.

(now watch as said pack of obstinate congressmen allow the country to default on its debt, which would unleash financial hell on earth).     


brewer12345

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #45 on: October 03, 2013, 09:02:52 PM »

(now watch as said pack of obstinate congressmen allow the country to default on its debt, which would unleash financial hell on earth).     

At that point financial considerations are secondary.  Instead, it will be time for the standard grandma drill: everyone into the cellar.  Well, my wife and kids will be in the cellar.  I'll be on the ground floor looking to make any looter's life both brief and interesting.

beltim

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #46 on: October 03, 2013, 09:25:09 PM »
Looks like there's a good chance there will be a government shutdown.  Curious to see if this is affecting anyone's investment decisions and how.

I yanked my money out of the market last week.  I avoided losses in the last debt ceiling showdown and I believe the market has no place to go but down when stuff like this happens.  I don't try to market time very often, but I will in exceptional circumstances like these.

When the storm clears, I'm back.  No regrets so far.

I can think of several reasons to go all cash.  40-50 obstinate but highly principled Republicans is not a game-changer in my investment universe.  A shallow pullback is playing out, but the high-end business of managed money is drastically lagging behind the S&P which is up 20% year to date.  I would be shocked, shocked I say, if any meaningful dip (5-10%, and we're halfway there) is not gobbled up by underinvested funds as they seek to make up lost ground into year end.   

Besides, in the age of the high frequency trading, nimbleness is best left to the algos.

(now watch as said pack of obstinate congressmen allow the country to default on its debt, which would unleash financial hell on earth).     


One lower cost option (pun intended) would be to buy some deep out of the money puts.  When considered as insurance, put options can be an affordable way to limit losses in your portfolio.  As a general rule declines of a large magnitude don't happen often enough to make it worthwhile to hold puts all the time, but it may be preferable to selling a large portion of your portfolio.

smedleyb

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #47 on: October 03, 2013, 10:34:28 PM »
At that point financial considerations are secondary.  Instead, it will be time for the standard grandma drill: everyone into the cellar.  Well, my wife and kids will be in the cellar.  I'll be on the ground floor looking to make any looter's life both brief and interesting.

Brief and interesting!  lol.  Kind of reminds me of Zed's last few hours of existence in "Pulp Fiction."  Blowtorches and pliers and pipes, oh my!

Clearly that's not what you meant, right? :)

brewer12345

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #48 on: October 04, 2013, 09:07:44 AM »
At that point financial considerations are secondary.  Instead, it will be time for the standard grandma drill: everyone into the cellar.  Well, my wife and kids will be in the cellar.  I'll be on the ground floor looking to make any looter's life both brief and interesting.

Brief and interesting!  lol.  Kind of reminds me of Zed's last few hours of existence in "Pulp Fiction."  Blowtorches and pliers and pipes, oh my!

Clearly that's not what you meant, right? :)

More like, can you count all the holes in your chest with the time you have left...

Riceman

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Re: Possible government shutdown?
« Reply #49 on: October 04, 2013, 09:26:51 AM »
I'm a government employee and still working. Not excepted either. Our funding comes from the fees we generate, so the lack of appropriations doesn't affect us.