I don't have the patience, or the inclination to go through and update all my old posts with working images. If you've gotten this far, read all the text from my posts, and are still interested, there's nothing more I can say that will convince you otherwise.
Instead, I'll simply bump this thread every once in a while, with the live results. After 30 years it'll likely look just like the Permanent Portfolio looks now (losing to 100% bonds since inception), but by then I'm sure everyone will have moved on to the next hot thing, and will have long forgotten about their losses in this thread.
Starting value: $1,000,000
And with a $40,000 a year withdrawal:
Note, in both instances you would've been better off with a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio than the Golden Butterfly, but I'm keeping it simple for now.
Interest Compound doesn't post anymore. I'll try to remember to update this at the end of each year.
Portfolio Analysis Results (Sep 2015 - Dec 2019)
Portfolio 1 Final Balance $1,560,762 CAGR 10.82% (VT)
Portfolio 2 Final Balance $1,368,288 CAGR 7.50% ("Golden Butterfly")
With a $40,000 a year withdrawal (adjusted for inflation):
Portfolio 1 Final Balance $1,297,659 CAGR 6.20% (VT)
Portfolio 2 Final Balance $1,122,746 CAGR 2.71% ("Golden Butterfly")
Everything was up in 2019. Holding 20% cash hurt returns - just ask Warren Buffett.
Portfolio Analysis Results (Sep 2015 - Dec 2020)
Portfolio 1 Final Balance $1,819,968 CAGR 11.88% (VT)
Portfolio 2 Final Balance $1,563,302 CAGR 8.74% ("Golden Butterfly")
With a $40,000 a year withdrawal (adjusted for inflation):
Portfolio 1 Final Balance $1,469,497 CAGR 7.48% (VT)
Portfolio 2 Final Balance $1,239,094 CAGR 4.10% ("Golden Butterfly")
2020 was a wild ride for VT, with a drawdown of 22%.
The Butterfly had a drawdown of only 7%. A much smoother ride, but lower returns.