I think lack of data is a big reason we don’t have the info MrNotRobot is hoping to find. A second (potentially more significant) reason is simply lack of demand for this info. I believe Areblespy is correct in that AA is a very psychologically based. These are nonscientific numbers, but think of it this way….
Maybe 5% of the developed industrialized world has even come across the concept of funding an early retirement. Of those, only a certain segment is really focused on AA. Again, for your enjoyment or mockery, I present a lifecycle observation. This time, instead of an AA lifecycle, of my anecdotal experience of actual/potential early retiree's thought processes.
1) 5-10+ years from FIRE, focused on increasing savings rate (or debt reduction) through combination of efficient spending and increases in income. Focus is also more on personal and global sustainability through acquisition of knowledge and skills, a practice which continues for life. AA is not as seriously considered, any reasonable plan will see great progress.
2) > 5yr to FIRE, to maybe 2 years post FIRE. These are the folks (me included) that start to really consider AA. The idea of losing our income stream is within reach and we want to know how quickly we can hit the right number. We want specifics about AA & how to meet our goals. IOTW, which AA is most likely to succeed given our circumstances and how much do we actually need. This is the ONLY real target audience of the data MrNotRobot seeks and is very small (exception being true financial nerds).
3)2-8 years post FIRE. These folks have gotten/are getting over the psychological factors Arebelspy talks about. Mindset has changed; worries about AA diminish as they see plans are working out. If things aren’t looking great, they have found making minor required changes to “the plan” are easily tolerated and fears of worst case scenario have all but disappeared.
4) 8+ years post fire. What likely started as a 3.5-5% WR is now down to 3% or less. Multiple other income streams, cost cutting measures, and sustainability skills/knowledge have come into play over the years, most of which were totally unexpected. “The plan” is so secure that they absolutely cannot understand what those up in number 2 are so concerned about. Managing AA is for hobby or legacy concerns only.
Obviously, everyone is a special snow flake and can be in different areas of the spectrum no matter where they are in the FIRE lifecycle; this just covers most of the folks with which I’ve had contact. Also obvious, where each person resides can really impact the intercourse. If the idea of early retirement continues to expand, we may see more data and tools available. For example, Tyler’s Portfolio Charts are a great expansion to what was available even just a couple of years ago (Thanks again Tyler!!!). MMM had to do it without even Cfiresim! Imagine that!