Author Topic: Portfolio Charts - The Golden Butterfly  (Read 301092 times)

talltexan

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Re: Portfolio Charts - The Golden Butterfly
« Reply #650 on: October 15, 2019, 07:45:39 AM »
@talltexan
Think in terms of the relative strength of US dollar. How do decreasing US treasury yields impact the US dollar's value? 

Also, if someone considers gold a zero yield, zero risk asset, how does it become more appealing if a low yielding/low risk asset suddenly become a zero yield (or negative)/low risk asset.

I think both low yields and the strong dollar are caused by the same two things: US Federal budget deficit and weak global economic prospects.

AdrianC

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Re: Portfolio Charts - The Golden Butterfly
« Reply #651 on: January 09, 2020, 07:33:54 AM »
I don't have the patience, or the inclination to go through and update all my old posts with working images. If you've gotten this far, read all the text from my posts, and are still interested, there's nothing more I can say that will convince you otherwise.

Instead, I'll simply bump this thread every once in a while, with the live results. After 30 years it'll likely look just like the Permanent Portfolio looks now (losing to 100% bonds since inception), but by then I'm sure everyone will have moved on to the next hot thing, and will have long forgotten about their losses in this thread.

Starting value: $1,000,000




And with a $40,000 a year withdrawal:



Note, in both instances you would've been better off with a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio than the Golden Butterfly, but I'm keeping it simple for now.

Interest Compound doesn't post anymore. I'll try to remember to update this at the end of each year.

Portfolio Analysis Results (Sep 2015 - Dec 2019)

Portfolio 1 Final Balance $1,560,762  CAGR 10.82% (VT)
Portfolio 2 Final Balance $1,368,288  CAGR 7.50% ("Golden Butterfly")

With a $40,000 a year withdrawal (adjusted for inflation):
Portfolio 1 Final Balance $1,297,659  CAGR 6.20% (VT)
Portfolio 2 Final Balance $1,122,746  CAGR 2.71% ("Golden Butterfly")

Everything was up in 2019. Holding 20% cash hurt returns - just ask Warren Buffett.

effigy98

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Re: Portfolio Charts - The Golden Butterfly
« Reply #652 on: January 16, 2020, 12:23:26 PM »
Currently doing:

42 NTSX
20 SMMV
20 GLDM
18 EDV (some long bonds are in NTSX)